So these are a couple of hands where I think like I have to put out a value bet... but should I be betting like 1/2 pot and forcing myself to always fold to a bet, saving the pot sized (or bigger) for the times I have a nut hand and hope to get paid off by a spew / cooler...
Or am I way off and are these spots where I shouldn't be value betting at all??
PS - a spot prize of micro-stakes kudos to anybody that can nail both oppo hands!!
Hand 1 - OK so the flop gives loads of options for what the villain could have - flush draws, straight draws, Kx - could even be peeling with a mid PP... turn card helps me but I don't think sees folds from anything apart from maybe the mid PP... then the river at the time I felt like I may still get paid by Kx (especially if K5/K4) and may get a call from Ahxh.... thoughts?
Hand 2: Kind of felt like a worse hand, was one of those where I really wished we could have timebanks on Sky as I was always planning to shove, but it then came one of the few cards that make me think 'uh' and then in the last few seconds panic I banged 'pot' and hit the 'bet' button (just because they are closest together lol)
And yes, looking back, turn bet should have been bigger.
I think you played hand fine and river is a sigh fold, considering he was in the blinds thenmy guess is 32s. I dont think its a low set as many opponents get nervous with the FD and then SD on turn.
Second hand I probably bet flop bigger and definatley bet turn bigger, against 2 others opponents on a draw heavy board you can get loads of value. Bad river card as you said, probably check calling a reasonable bet but its clear at least one had the FD.
Second hand I probably bet flop bigger and definatley bet turn bigger, against 2 others opponents on a draw heavy board you can get loads of value. Bad river card as you said, probably check calling a reasonable bet but its clear at least one had the FD. Hand...I would go for a small flush. 94s/ 108s. Posted by CraigSG1
Thanks for the feedback Craig - and enjoy your coaching with Lambert!
Check/call would have been my sigh-option out of position... do things not change when I'm in position and it has been checked round to me, a final piece of weakness from both oppos that means I could have the best hand (and at least one worse hand that can call)?
In Response to Re: a little fish trying to out-swim the sharks... : Thanks for the feedback Craig - and enjoy your coaching with Lambert! Check/call would have been my sigh-option out of position... do things not change when I'm in position and it has been checked round to me, a final piece of weakness from both oppos that means I could have the best hand (and at least one worse hand that can call)? Posted by shakinaces
YW, and I hope I dont look/sound a fool but I am looking forward to it.
Ooops, didnt realise had got checked through. Your right, in that it is a good sign of weakness and this is a tricky spot as because you have shown strength through the hand then villians can definatley check a better hand to c/r you with so you always have that thought at back of your mind but, yeah, we can probably bet. I would make it more half pot if we did though as as bad a card it is for you it could also be a bad card for them so scare them off easier. We can get value from 2 pr hands and lesser straights. I cant ever see any c/r being a bluff or worse than our hand so we can get away if that happens.
Checking back isnt the worst I dont think as pot is already nice and with two opponents it does increase the chances that one has hit the FD.
Disappointingly I just realised that what I initially thought was a small + day, is actually another -1BI because I forgot to log last month's reward payment
It's been a real challenge the last couple of days to be a 'believer' and give up on hands far easier than I previously was... I spend most of the session mentally beating myself up that the continuing donk bets, check raises or bets where I don't cbet/cbet but give up turn can't ALWAYS be good and maybe the other players, for all the loose/stationy tendancies, have started to adjust to my reduced aggression and are now marking me as the fish.
That said, my discipline is holding in the most part. The only drip of note was calling with 3rd pair against someone who I was convinced was at it - the fact that shortly afterwards I was all in vs him on the flop with AA vs no pair no draw made me think it wasn't the worst of plays.
The pkr gods were otherwise super harsh on AA last night, not so much for me but across the tables I was on. I did have one cracked when getting all in on the turn vs QQ and getting rivered... but this was somewhat harsly evened up when KK v AA pre saw me turn a set vs an oppo that had been stacked in exactly the same way barely a couple of hands earlier - that was just sick and I genuinely felt harsh for that.
Ah well - plus side is that (I think) I've managed to add in a few useful notes that may help me to sneak a few quid back in the coming weeks... fingers crossed!
No poker Friday, way too much nice weather so rolled straight from work to pub crawl. Ended the night finally braving a wander in the working mens club at the end of my road... and my only gambling of the day saw me win a meat draw and getting to enjoy a hangover-clearing fry up on Saturday morning. That's the sort of run-good I want to experience!
They had a couple of tables of poker running in there as well, so going to have to check that out when I'm in a less inebriated state.
Saturday started horrifically and I lost over £30 in an afternoon session. A lot of that was a continuation of every pot I played seemed to see me facing either a large donk bet on the flop or being check/raised whenever I c-bet... given I didn't recognise the villains that led to a lot of folds and a lot of thinking 'am I just being beaten up and playing too weak?' Even the times where I did get a piece of the flop / had an overpair, the run-outs were just not kind and left me going from 'yay I've flopped a set, I'm going to double up' to, 'I really hope I can get to showdown without more money going in, hopefully with villain not having binked the 4-flush on board'
Then the evening session finally started to swing what had been a drop of close to £100 in the last couple of days. Three small winning sessions, one helped with bottom set vs top 2 during a rare visit to MC10 which left me with a bit of profit for Saturday (hooray!) and brings me back to around -30 for the month to date.
Currently weighing up whether or not to invest in a copy of The Mental Game of Poker... can't believe a second hand book is still priced up at almost £10... I'm such a life BR nit! As per the posts on CraigSG's diary, improving how you deal with beats / swings is probably a bit part of keeping on the right path BR wise, so could well be a good investment.
As I've started to try and focus more on improving my poker, the days of having the TV on in the background are behind me and I stick to having music to accompany my games.
I'm a lazy bug ger that hasn't got round to a spotify account yet and so often just ping songs on youtube to run in the background... some of which I'm sure will start to accompany future posts.
Anyway, last night I ended up with a session supported by The Strokes:
Dare I say this then made me feel incredibly old when I realised it is 13 years since this was released... aka 13 years since I left University.
By the power of (dodgy) gambling I ended up in Oxford (what was the Zodiac) the night they played their on their first UK tour... I have to confess to some jealousy at just how much female attention such fame affords a band! At the after-party I think pretty much every girl in their was jostling to be sat alongside the band, while me and the rest of the blokes gave up even trying to pull and drunkenly took turns to wrestle the lead singer of The Moldy Peaches, a surprisingly strong woman in a rabbit onesie, that was offering to take on all comers on the dance floor.
It also shattered a bit of starry-eyed fandom when I got my first beer at the bar and turned to see James Dean Bradfield of the Manics stood next to me. On TV I never realised it, but he is basically a midget. I felt like a giant.
So yeah, any good music recommendations to supplement my poker playing will be welcomely received. I wonder if there is a skew in results compared to the style of tunes you listen to in a session... more aggression if Slipknot is in the background, more creativity if throwing on a bit of Muse, shrugging off bad beats without a care in the world while some soothing classical music enters the mix?
Not going to lie, the numbers speak for themselves and I did run golden yesterday, even allowing for KK < QQ for 120BB or so early in the evening. I think more importantly, I ran up in excess of 300PP which is indicative of putting in some (for me) long sessions where I think my decision making held up for all but the last ten mins or so - although even then, I'd dropped all but the softest tables with the plan to 'go to bed when the easiest spot stops reloading' (and stuck by that).
At the risk of upsetting those I sat with, the best part of my game was table selection and as much as the cards did help, being in position against weaker opponents makes it so much easier to benefit from that vs being surrounded by regs. As more micro-regs replaced defeated fish, so I was seeking new spots to replace tables as opposed to fight on with tougher spots. Bumhunters aren't really as bad as people make out
Another foray into the NL10 MC was the one table that lasted throughout, with an interesting shift in dynamic. To start with I had immediate position on two good players (CraigSG and Larson) with three weaker players to my left - so a bit more 3-betting those behind and opening those in front (knowing I wouldn't be facing many tough decisions pre-flop)... then over time it evolved as the Craig and Larson left - Craig had position on Larson and stood up the first hand after Larson left... I can only assume that means he saw Larson as his 'spot'!
Then I had Hypeting and Dontelmum take position on me, but weak players sit to my right, taking away how many CO/MP opens I was able to sneak through, but making it easy to keep building my stack from taking on the limpers.
So a new high for the roll, if I can keep the momentum going then a bit more NL20 toe-dipping will be added to the mix (...not the Dane Bowers/Jordan type of toe-dipping)
Bankroll £937.66 Not going to lie, the numbers speak for themselves and I did run golden yesterday, even allowing for KK < QQ for 120BB or so early in the evening. I think more importantly, I ran up in excess of 300PP which is indicative of putting in some (for me) long sessions where I think my decision making held up for all but the last ten mins or so - although even then, I'd dropped all but the softest tables with the plan to 'go to bed when the easiest spot stops reloading' (and stuck by that). At the risk of upsetting those I sat with, the best part of my game was table selection and as much as the cards did help, being in position against weaker opponents makes it so much easier to benefit from that vs being surrounded by regs. As more micro-regs replaced defeated fish, so I was seeking new spots to replace tables as opposed to fight on with tougher spots. Bumhunters aren't really as bad as people make out Another foray into the NL10 MC was the one table that lasted throughout, with an interesting shift in dynamic. To start with I had immediate position on two good players ( CraigSG and Larson ) with three weaker players to my left - so a bit more 3-betting those behind and opening those in front (knowing I wouldn't be facing many tough decisions pre-flop)... then over time it evolved as the Craig and Larson left - Craig had position on Larson and stood up the first hand after Larson left... I can only assume that means he saw Larson as his 'spot'! Then I had Hypeting and Dontelmum take position on me, but weak players sit to my right, taking away how many CO/MP opens I was able to sneak through, but making it easy to keep building my stack from taking on the limpers. So a new high for the roll, if I can keep the momentum going then a bit more NL20 toe-dipping will be added to the mix (...not the Dane Bowers/Jordan type of toe-dipping) Hand of the night is without question 7-6! Posted by shakinaces
Thanks Sharky! Get me in trouble why don't you! It was actually my bed time!
Well done on a successful day. Hope i get one soon!
A proper 'after the Mayor's show' sort of session which mostly bumbled along with lots of folding. Variance made sure that I just couldn't seem to hit a flop and had to rely on a bit more bluffing than usual (probably not a good thing long term) to pick up a few pots - albeit I think I picked my spots well and all the bigger pots came my way.
Shame I didn't have the balls to pick off a bluff though... had the chance at the one NL20 table I had, but bottled it as the timer ran out and moved the mouse to fold... thanks to oppo for showing he did indeed have the busted FD ... but thanks also to same oppo (unfortunately well below 100BB) for trying to bluff shove pre when I had KK
All in all, lots of frustrating spots, but I think I lost the least in the main... only possible one I could/should have avoided I'll post up in a sec.
Have left name in as this is a fairly player-specific hand (hello if you happen to be lurking BAGGPUSS!)
I guess there is a case for raising the flop, but I thought that by calling we'd end up 4-way to the turn and that'd give me a bit more chance of building the pot if I did improve / then build the pot on the turn.
It's weird, if it had been checked to me I'd have probably bet big anyway, maybe not whole stack but close to... but when it's donked there is a bit more thought rather than if I was the one with the decision to bet.
I never see this being an air bluff, but at the same time its not like the majority of NL10 players that would only be doing this with KK / 99 / QQ and possibly Ahxh / 88.
Tues session was the opposite of Sunday, amount of all-in ahead on turn/miracle out river card was mad but wholly due... was over £50 down but recovered it back to about a £20 loss... then Weds dropped just under a tenner.
Shame you can't use trackers on here in some form, not to follow others, but to see your own results. It'd be nice to know (positive and negative) where you sit in terms of EV - particularly at the volume I can play alongside work. Am I genuinely improving / beating the level or am I just on riding a good run of cards that has me medium-term showing a profit?
Not sure how much I'll play this weekend / this month now the World Cup has kicked off... but will try to keep getting in the odd session here and there.
I'm a bit autistic so, as much as I adore football* one of the biggest things of the World Cup for me is the wealth of betting opportunities that are on offer.
The domestic game is great and I'll normally have a few season long bets, but 9 months is a long wait to really get excited about, whereas turning round in weeks/months makes things way more fun.
Alas my gambling roll is hugely shrunk this year (what a stupid idea home ownership was lol) so my bets are shrunk this time around, especially as I want to leave myself a few quid for the games / tournament in-running.
But still, I'm going to hijack my own thread to record pluses and minuses. Given the stakes I'm not opening new accounts for any of these and saving 'free bets' for another day. Plus I can't access a few (inc Ladbrokes, Paddy Power and BetVictor) so have not been able to place a few bets I'd like to. Still, here's what we have so far:
Neymar £5 @ 8/1 Golden Ball Winner (I see this as backing Brazil to win the thing - if they do then it seems nailed on that the poster boy of the team will take this award. Plus a saver that they may be pipped in semis / losing final and he'll have done enough to nick it anyway / popular opinion will sway the votes)
Spain £5 @ 13/2 to win (I still think they have the best squad and would be favourites if this was held anywhere but Brazil. The bookmaker is giving a free bet if this loses and Brazil or Argentina win the cup, so I have insurance if they do run out of gas)
Luis Suarez £2.5 @ 13/8 to be top Liverpool scorer (He only has to beat the England boys and, even with injury doubt in mind, I'm not sure it makes sense for him to be better than evens)
Edin Dzeko £1.25 @ 4/1 to be top Man City scorer (too late to get EW 80/1 on top scorer, but I think he'll bag goals in a side that averaged 3 goals per game in qualifying, albeit against average opposition. Aguero is the threat, but will have to share game time and goal chances with Messi, Higuain, Lavezzi and Di Maria. Yaya Toure could nick a few and be the outside bet, but I think Dzeko at this price is value)
Paul Pogba £1.25@ 9/2 to be top Juventus scorer (Vidal and Pirlo don't look obvious to score more than the odd goal, so a couple for France in an easyish group, maybe even a single goal, could be sufficient to bring this in)
Mitroglous £1.25 @ 3/1 to be top Championship scorer (a couple of S Korea names may have a shot, while was tempted to punt ex-Forest Jara of Chile at 66s, but realistically I can't make a case for any Championship player to score - which makes this a 3/1 bet that Greece's target man scores at any time in 3 group games.)
Group F top scoring group £2.50 @ 5/1 (Brazil and Spain groups top the betting here, but as intimated above, I expect more goals from Bosnia, Argentina needs no cover - can see them both knocking plenty past Iran and Nigeria as well as playing out a goal fest among themselves - plus Iran and Nigeria play each other first and so may go all out for the win in an effort to have an outside chance of getting out the group)
Fred £2.50 EW @ 20s and Higuain £1.25 EW @ 22s (I think Fred will top score Brazil and looks too big in a market which is always very open. As with Higuain, being the furthest forward means you get chances that Neymar/Messi set up (and IMO they are both better covered for Golden Ball). I did see 80s on Dzeko earlier which I'd have covered, but missed. I also fancy Alexis Sanchez EW @ 66 but don't think I have an account I can place this with?)
Now to tap up group related bets....
That puts me down £26.25 so far...
* Obviously adore and hate in equal measure, given my support of Forest, England and playing for a mid-ranking Sunday league team!!
Group A - Brazil, Croatia, Mexico, Cameroon £1.25 @ 3/1 and Brazil, Croatia £2.50 @ 7/4 (I think if any of the groups can be ranked in advance, this is the one. Brazil obv and Croatia are a class above the other two and will qualify as long as they don't get smashed by Brazil, which I don't think they will. Mexico nearly didn't even make the play-offs and missed out to Panama ffs and yeah Cameroon have E'too, but he's not the player he was... think the 7/4 forecast is the one I'll most regret not lumping on when the groups are done.)
Group B - Spain, Chile £1.25 @ 5/2 (forget Belgium, think this is too early for their great young players, Chile (and Bosnia) are the dark horses. Van Gaal's mind is on United, their team already making noises of possible implosion. As per last post I think Spain are the class squad in the tournament, so this seems a big price to me)
Group C - Ivory Coast £1.25 @ 7/2 (not as good as the 4s I saw about earlier and probably right priced now, but a group they could easily win a couple of games in if the big names have their heads screwed on)
Group F - Argentina, Bosnia, Iran, Nigeria £1.25 @ 13/2 (given that I think Argentina / Bosnia is nailed on, this is a 13/2 shot for Iran to beat Nigeria in their opening game... or draw and get beat less bad in the following games lol)
Edin Dzeko top score Group F £2.50 @ 7s (as per previous post, I hadn't noticed this previously but think this is awesome value and the Argentinian players are all way too short for this bet)
Russia / S Korea reverse forecast Group H £1.25 @ 9s (Everyone sees Belgium as a nail on, I don't think they are THAT good... admit this is a bit of a flier and Belgium may still sneak through, just don't think it will be as easy as the bookies do which makes this quite a good price for two solid, albeit unspectacular teams)
Treble Group A Brazil/Croatia, Group B Spain/Chile, Group F Argentina/Bosnia £1.25 @ just over 20s (as above... may as well be greedy and see if I can build a bit of extra roll for the KO stages
Mesut Ozil top German scorer £1.25 @ 9s and Ciro Immobile top Italian scorer £1.25 @ 11/2 (in the absence of many centre forwards, Ozil seems worth a punt among a bunch of attacking midfielders that could take this bet, given he's better odds that Muller, Podolski, Gotze and Schurle... Immobile may be a shot, but as with a lot of bets, I think the UK knowledge of Balotelli makes his price too short and Immobile easily outscored him in Serie A last season...)
Comments
Or am I way off and are these spots where I shouldn't be value betting at all??
PS - a spot prize of micro-stakes kudos to anybody that can nail both oppo hands!!
Hand 1 - OK so the flop gives loads of options for what the villain could have - flush draws, straight draws, Kx - could even be peeling with a mid PP... turn card helps me but I don't think sees folds from anything apart from maybe the mid PP... then the river at the time I felt like I may still get paid by Kx (especially if K5/K4) and may get a call from Ahxh.... thoughts?
And yes, looking back, turn bet should have been bigger.
Check/call would have been my sigh-option out of position... do things not change when I'm in position and it has been checked round to me, a final piece of weakness from both oppos that means I could have the best hand (and at least one worse hand that can call)?
Disappointingly I just realised that what I initially thought was a small + day, is actually another -1BI because I forgot to log last month's reward payment
It's been a real challenge the last couple of days to be a 'believer' and give up on hands far easier than I previously was... I spend most of the session mentally beating myself up that the continuing donk bets, check raises or bets where I don't cbet/cbet but give up turn can't ALWAYS be good and maybe the other players, for all the loose/stationy tendancies, have started to adjust to my reduced aggression and are now marking me as the fish.
That said, my discipline is holding in the most part. The only drip of note was calling with 3rd pair against someone who I was convinced was at it - the fact that shortly afterwards I was all in vs him on the flop with AA vs no pair no draw made me think it wasn't the worst of plays.
The pkr gods were otherwise super harsh on AA last night, not so much for me but across the tables I was on. I did have one cracked when getting all in on the turn vs QQ and getting rivered... but this was somewhat harsly evened up when KK v AA pre saw me turn a set vs an oppo that had been stacked in exactly the same way barely a couple of hands earlier - that was just sick and I genuinely felt harsh for that.
Ah well - plus side is that (I think) I've managed to add in a few useful notes that may help me to sneak a few quid back in the coming weeks... fingers crossed!
Not going to lie, the numbers speak for themselves and I did run golden yesterday, even allowing for KK < QQ for 120BB or so early in the evening. I think more importantly, I ran up in excess of 300PP which is indicative of putting in some (for me) long sessions where I think my decision making held up for all but the last ten mins or so - although even then, I'd dropped all but the softest tables with the plan to 'go to bed when the easiest spot stops reloading' (and stuck by that).
At the risk of upsetting those I sat with, the best part of my game was table selection and as much as the cards did help, being in position against weaker opponents makes it so much easier to benefit from that vs being surrounded by regs. As more micro-regs replaced defeated fish, so I was seeking new spots to replace tables as opposed to fight on with tougher spots. Bumhunters aren't really as bad as people make out
Another foray into the NL10 MC was the one table that lasted throughout, with an interesting shift in dynamic. To start with I had immediate position on two good players (CraigSG and Larson) with three weaker players to my left - so a bit more 3-betting those behind and opening those in front (knowing I wouldn't be facing many tough decisions pre-flop)... then over time it evolved as the Craig and Larson left - Craig had position on Larson and stood up the first hand after Larson left... I can only assume that means he saw Larson as his 'spot'!
Then I had Hypeting and Dontelmum take position on me, but weak players sit to my right, taking away how many CO/MP opens I was able to sneak through, but making it easy to keep building my stack from taking on the limpers.
So a new high for the roll, if I can keep the momentum going then a bit more NL20 toe-dipping will be added to the mix (...not the Dane Bowers/Jordan type of toe-dipping)
Hand of the night is without question 7-6!
A proper 'after the Mayor's show' sort of session which mostly bumbled along with lots of folding. Variance made sure that I just couldn't seem to hit a flop and had to rely on a bit more bluffing than usual (probably not a good thing long term) to pick up a few pots - albeit I think I picked my spots well and all the bigger pots came my way.
Shame I didn't have the balls to pick off a bluff though... had the chance at the one NL20 table I had, but bottled it as the timer ran out and moved the mouse to fold... thanks to oppo for showing he did indeed have the busted FD
All in all, lots of frustrating spots, but I think I lost the least in the main... only possible one I could/should have avoided I'll post up in a sec.
Only on the wind-up Craig, although was surprised you didn't stay for a few more orbits to benefit from the station sat the other side of Larson!
I guess there is a case for raising the flop, but I thought that by calling we'd end up 4-way to the turn and that'd give me a bit more chance of building the pot if I did improve / then build the pot on the turn.
It's weird, if it had been checked to me I'd have probably bet big anyway, maybe not whole stack but close to... but when it's donked there is a bit more thought rather than if I was the one with the decision to bet.
I never see this being an air bluff, but at the same time its not like the majority of NL10 players that would only be doing this with KK / 99 / QQ and possibly Ahxh / 88.
Discuss...
Edin Dzeko, ooooooooohhhhhhhhhh