Back on the Bradley Dack train again, hes 4/1 to score at anytime, the Gills are away to Bradford but from what I have seen so far he will still be the best player on the pitch, 3 from 3 so far and this guy should get 20+ goals this season
Middlesborough 2/1, fantastic win last weekend, and are playing a Derby side who i dont think will trouble the top 6 this season...
Gillingham 10/3 Away to a good Bradford side but il keep backing the Gills until the bookies catch on to what their price actually should be...
Cardiff 5/2, they are away to Blackburn who are far less of a threat now they have sold Gestede, I also read today that Rhodes is not fit so may not even play, which makes 5/2 good value for a Cardiff team who look far more solid than 12 months ago
Barnsley 3/1, they are away to Millwall who were thrashed last weekend, and I believe Barnsley are slightly the better team so 3/1 is good value.....
could have been even better though as 80mins in i had all 4 bets winning for a 164/1 acca which would have been nice.
on another note, Bradley Dack didnt score but did managed 2 assists, I'm going to get it in early that i think this fella will go on to play for England at some point.
Well with one winner and one non-runner in my first two weeks Im showing a massive profiit of about £2 which makes this week's bet a virtual freebie.
CONOR WICKHAM - Crystal Palace v Aston Villa. He hasn't got off the mark yet since his summer move from Sunderland but by all accounts he hasn't played badly and playing at homr against a Villa side which is still bedding in with so many changes, he's worth a punt at 9/2
CALUM WILSON - West Ham v Bournemouth. Wilson was one of Bournemouth's shining stars last season and although Bournemouth havent scored a single goal yet, that day will come and against a West Hsm side without their first choice keeper after his kamikaze red card last week against Leciester, Wilson might be the one and his price is 6/1.
MARK ALBRIGHTON - Leicester City v Spurs. I have great pride in the record that Leicester have continued this season where they left off last campaign and they are a real force at the King Power stadium. I'm pretty confident City will win and it was hard to pick who will score the first goal. Mahrez has stolen a lot of the headlines so far for City but Albrighton has had a major impact and he's a tasty 12/1 to add to the goal he scored against Sunderland on the opening day of the season.
A small 25p patent on this will pay £207 for just £1.75 so it seemed rude not to have a go!
Sunderland 3/1.. they have been anysmal so far this season, hence why we are being offered a good price, I like Swansea, especially their manager, Im still worried that they dont really have a plan b and may be found out here, Sunderland will make plenty of changes this week and i expect them to come out fighting... 3/1 is a good price especially at home, im also gonna have a bet on 1-0 Sunderland at 10/1 too.
Barnsley 8/5... they had a good win last time out away at millwall and they are playing against a Bradford side who lost their last game at home... I see Barnsley finishing well above Barnsley so 8/5 represents real value in my eyes;
Gillingham 7/4 at home to Wigan, I think the bookies are slowly catching on to Gillinghams true ability but I will again back them as i think at home 7/4 is still good value, also 3/1 on Bradley Dack to score anytime is gonna be another punt for me as he continues to impress, when he starts getting smaller than 5/2 I will probably stop backing hime
Coventry 9/4 they are away to an in form Walsall, and if im honest i know very little about these two sides, but Coventry strike me as a far bigger and better side than Walsall and they have a striker who cant stop scoring so I think 9/4 is a fairly good price
Luton 11/10, Luton havent really got going yet this year and have disappointed me, but they are playing a truly woeful Yeovil side and should pick up 3 points here...
I will be backing these all as singles and probably have a lucky fiver accumalator too!
Sigh...another week with one correct and one non-runner for a £2 profit
Will leave it until 2.30pm until teams are unveiled to make my selections in future because it is so frustrating to discover one of your picks not even in the squad!
Did consider Dack because of Jordz' glowing reports and now wish I had!
Pretty awful results in terms of the teams I backed.
My ever reliable Gillingham saved me, and luckily I had Bradley Dack for 1st GS and anytime GS so somehow i managed a very small profit. Also I have season Long bets on the Gills who are top of the league and 200/1 on Bradley Dack as T/S and 6/1 to be Gills T/S
Havent checked any stats to see if any of my bets were good value or bad picks but there seemed to be an awful lot of draws about today so cant see too many people having made much money.
P.S Luton have really let me down this year, was really confident with the pre season as well.
How did Dack come on your radar? Seems to be doing very well, and not a player I'm familiar with. Looks a solid put for a goal every week in August is anything to go on.
He was on Loan at Braintree town 2 years ago, and thats my home town club and they were raving about good he was back then, and this year when i decided to look in to backing Gillingham there were just pages on pages of Gillingham supporters talking about how good he was becoming in a short space of time. plus he banged in a load of goals pre season, From what I have seen so far hes very much like a League 1 Frank Lampard.
Ive had a small bet on him playing for England in the next 3 years at 100/1... which is very unlikely but Lambert and Lallana managed it so definitely not impossible.
League Cup Round Two tonight. The profitable line in the first two rounds is to back the outsiders. Probably not as many shocks in Round Two as Round One where eleven sides lost to teams from a lower division.
Last year there were eight wins for teams against higher division sides (Doncaster won at Watford, Sheff Utd won at West Ham, Shrewsbury won at Leicester, Sheff Wed won at Burnley, MK Dons beat Man Utd, Orient won at Villa, Bradford beat Leeds and Burton beat QPR) & a similar number tonight wouldn't be a major upset. Certainly backing anyone odds on in the first two rounds is terrible value, particularly in accumulators.
Probably the best thing to do is back teams individually although backing in doubles and/or trebles might appeal as well.
Here are some of the decent odds available:
Notts County 8/1
Gillingham 7/2
Burton 7/2
Bury 9/2
Shrewsbury 8/1
Doncaster 5/2
Hartlepool 9/1
Rochdale 7/1
Luton 11/2
Northampton 9/1
Portsmouth 9/4
Carlisle 9/1
Rotherham 9/2
Oxford 7/2
Exeter 7/1
York 12/1
Walsall 2/1
Barnet 10/1
Port Vale 9/1
Take your pick which ones that you go for. Under dogs appear to do equally well at home and away at this stage so we shouldn't be put off by apparently difficult away trips. I look for a reason for the favourite to trip up - poor league form, resting players, underestimating opponents and prefer underdogs in form but often teams with poor form pull off cup shocks at this stage.
I have gone for a combination of singles, doubles and trebles tonight and hopefully a couple of results will be enough to get a small profit. if we lose, we don't lose much.
What i will be doing is waiting til the line ups are announced, Il find 3/4 teams who have rested very few players and seem to be going for it and il back them in a small acca, and then the teams who have left some of their bigger names out i will be backing against them in singles. fingers crossed for a profitable night
What i will be doing is waiting til the line ups are announced, Il find 3/4 teams who have rested very few players and seem to be going for it and il back them in a small acca, and then the teams who have left some of their bigger names out i will be backing against them in singles. fingers crossed for a profitable night Posted by jordz16
Usually the first two rounds of the LC are pretty profitable.
Resting players can be a method of selection but is not foolproof. In the last round, three of the five higher ranked teams that made the fewest changes went out, one drew over 90 minutes with only one being a winning bet. Often fringe players perform well as they try to prove themselves.
Most likely, the teams that rested players in R1 will rest players again and teams that played a full strength team will probably do so again.
Bradley Dack is only on the bench for Gillingham tonight which is very annoying as 4/1 for anytime goalscorer was going to be my biggest bet of the night..
This week Ill be checking the starting line ups before I place my first goalscorer patent, but assuming they are in the starting XI's my picks for this week are:
RUDY GESTEDE: Aston Villa v Sunderland. Home against a dire Sunderland team it's little wonder he's only 7/2.
CHRISITIAN BENTEKE: Liverpool v West Ham. Again at home against a team that leaks goals, he's an 100/30 shot.
SERGIO AGUERO: Man City v Watford. One of world's best strikers v Premier newcomers? An 11/4 selection.
A 25p patent pays £34.58 am tempted to do more, but if it comes up I'll be happy with that.
Crystal Palace 10/1. Yes they are away to Chelsea who generally dont lose at home, but things arent quite right there at the minute, Cahill and Zouma are an untested partnership and even though its unlikely i do think a shock is possible, plus Palace are dangerous from set pieces and counter attacks which give them a chance in any game.
Leicester 5/2. away at Bournemouth who had a great win last week but did there best to chuck it away, they are very similar in styles of play I just think Leicester have a stronger spine which hopefully will prevail in this well balanced match
QPR & Fulham both 19/10 and both away to teams who have been poor so far, neither of these teams is playing great so far but they do have far more talent in their squads
Charlton, 4/1 even though they are away to Wolves who i strongly backed pre season they have been very impressive so far while Wolves have disappointed me so i feel i would be a fool to ignore such a big price
Gillingham 11/5 Probably getting boring reading that I have back the Gills but again its a great price, and they are away to Peterborough who i havent been impressed with at all.. and again I will be backing bradley dack to score first at 9/1 and anytime at 10/3
Comments
Bradley Dack £5 to score anytime @ 3.5
Other bets for today
Bournemouth/Leicester over 2.5, Gillingham and Walsall win. £10 treble pays £100.36p.
Had a cover bet on Dunfermline over 2.5 £30 @ 1.5
Bookies have cottoned on to the amount of goals in Dunfermline matches, properly won't get 1.5 soon.
Had a £25 double come in last night for £79 (Bolton under 2.5, Falkirk over 2.5) so its a bit of a free bet today.
Be lucky.