In Response to Re: Extra Place Races : That all seems reasonable to me. As you will see from my EPR strategy, I am mainly placing a selection of singles on races that give me a good chance of breaking even, some days I make a bit of profit, some days I miss badly and on a few days I make a very nice profit. Overall it is shaping up quite nicely with a steady return. I am giving myself a low variance entry into betting on horse racing and taking advantage of the +EV from the extra places. I dont even mind going shorter that 8/1 ew in the EPRs. I wouldnt recommend in a normal book - but if say a favourite is evens and you have a 11/2 shot that should place and may win with insurance of an extra place or 2 then I will go for it. I will try your multiple strategy out, maybe not today some tough cards. It definitely fits in with my strategy of spreading risk, minimising variance and it adds that chance of an extra special win. You are definitely not teaching me to suck eggs. All advice greatly appreciated! Posted by Phantom66
NO PROBLEM MATE What I have been trying to say all along is that whatever you do don't back a horse PLACE only, always have a win bet on it even if that is a smaller amount than what you put on for the place.
2.55: NEWBURY 5 places Defoe, Al Hamdany, Duke of Bronte, Mister Blue Sky 3.55 THIRSK 5 places Eccleston, Handsome Dude, Foolad, My name is Rio GL All. Posted by Phantom66
I have got it in early for Mondays EPR, as I have a busy day. I also thought there were some discussion points for my selections so adding some flavour rather than just naming horses.
8.25 Windsor (4 places)
Interesting shape to the book here, as there is an odds on favourite Fast and Hot. I can see the attraction with a recent win, no penalty and a 71b claimer on board. However that win was only on Friday and on soft ground so there has to be a question mark over whether it can run well again so soon.
Happy to oppose, esepcially with it being an EPR.
Ebisham is 2nd fav at 11/2 and has a recent win. Ground and extra trip a worry but the whole field has something to oppose.
3rd fav is Essenaitch but that was beaten 4.5l by Fast and hot on friday and does not have a claimer on board and hard to see a reversal in form unless it has much greater recovery powers.
There is a gap in the betting then (12/1 bar) so I am also looking down the field for some place chances.
Defoe did me proud so I am sticking to the footballer theme and they dont come much classier than Iniesta. I don't think the horse has quite the same pedigree as his namesake. It is coming back after a long layoff with a new yard. Normally it would be "one to watch" or "see how it goes in the market" but I am happy to put a little ew on at 16/1.
In the end I also went for Hearty at 16/1 who won 2 handicaps last year and is only 4lb higher, first run for new yard. Ground not an issue but it is a shorter trip.
Any market movers from the 12/1 bar will be worth an ew punt imo.
edit:My longer price selections have drifted since last night, which is good news returns wise if they do place, but not so great that there is no market support.
They have added the 5.25 at Carlisle (4 places) Yorkee Mo Sabee (decent return run last week and has won here over longer trip and this trip elsewhere) Tellovoi (Risky but if does run near best excellent value) Maureb (C&D specialist but does need a return to form) Posted by Phantom66
maureb looked at myself at big price,only neg its got is bad draw
Yes mk, draw a bit of a concern, but looking on drawbias it says it is a small one, and there seem to be a decent share of winners from the highest stall number.
As you know I am new to this, but I noted Jason Weaver talking about the draw bias at York and how if drawn wide the best tactic is probably to go straight and not over extend by trying to move over. It was helped at York that the bias appears different with softer conditions and there is no indication of that at Carlisle.
It could be one of those where the field splits and if 1 or 2 go with maureb hopefully the others will get in each others way fighting for position on the other side.
Obviously if ground genuinely is much quicker on the other side then Maureb has little chance with that tactic.
Alternatively they could bunch down the middle.
I am hoping that some horses will be thrown off by the sharp rise in the track furlongs 2-5 which Maureb has clearly coped with well before.
Yes mk, draw a bit of a concern, but looking on drawbias it says it is a small one, and there seem to be a decent share of winners from the highest stall number. As you know I am new to this, but I noted Jason Weaver talking about the draw bias at York and how if drawn wide the best tactic is probably to go straight and not over extend by trying to move over. It was helped at York that the bias appears different with softer conditions and there is no indication of that at Carlisle. It could be one of those where the field splits and if 1 or 2 go with maureb hopefully the others will get in each others way fighting for position on the other side. Obviously if ground genuinely is much quicker on the other side then Maureb has little chance with that tactic. Alternatively they could bunch down the middle. I am hoping that some horses will be thrown off by the sharp rise in the track furlongs 2-5 which Maureb has clearly coped with well before. Posted by Phantom66
Just catching up on replay. I had misread the course layout and thaought the 6f was pretty straight. So outside draw was a bigger disadvantage than I thought, however Maureb looked well placed until final furlong and the early pace was clearly too strong.
Ooops. Just catching up on replay. I had misread the course layout and thaought the 6f was pretty straight. So outside draw was a bigger disadvantage than I thought, however Maureb looked well placed until final furlong and the early pace was clearly too strong. Posted by Phantom66
Maureb travelled like a dream, but pace was defo way too strong, and all placed horses came from behind. Worth following Maureb next time it runs at Carlisle as he obviously likes the track. i can't understand why jockeys let their horses go tearing off like that, particularly on a stiff track like Carlisle. You'll never see Ryan Moore doing that !
I can only imagine they're under instructions and are trying to get the horse better handicapped.
Well priced on their handicap marks with the latter having some C&D form.
4.40 Newcastle (4 places)
Gone for a clutch of runners with good chances in the sweet spot in the betting for these races (7/1 to 12/1). In simple terms if you pick a horse every ew EPR in those odds ranges you should win long term. 4 picks is probably too many but I found something I liked about each of these.
Major Crispies, Epeius, Caeser the Gaeser, El Principe
Surprised Fantasy Keeper didnt shorten up from 8/1. Once he found a gap had plenty of speed to pull away from the more exposed front runners. I thought Bellevarde had a decent run to 5th, just one place and half a lenght outside the extra place at 33/1.
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