You need to be logged in to your Sky Poker account above to post discussions and comments.

You might need to refresh your page afterwards.

Graham's Pratice Placepot Perms

StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
edited July 2017 in Sports & Betting Chat
Hi, as from today (29/06/17) I will try some practice Placepot perms along with Phantom, Wynne and Vaigret (although I am not sure Wynne needs any practice lol)

P&L VIRTUAL TABLE BELOW:

 
STAYORGO PLACEPOT PROFIT/LOSS VIRTUAL SUMMARY





DATE MEETING VIRTUAL COSTS VIRTUAL RTNS VIRTUAL PROFIT





29/06/2017 NEWCASTLE A/W -£97.20 £0.00 -£97.20
30/06/2017 DONCASTER -£97.20 £96.75 -£0.45
30/06/2017 CHESTER -£97.20 £35.61 -£61.59
01/07/2017 NEWCASTLE A/W -£81.60 £126.56 £44.96
04/07/2017 BRIGHTON -£91.80 £81.27 -£10.53
05/07/2017 THIRSK -£101.70 £45.36 -£56.34
06/07/2017 HAYDOCK -£94.50 £30.15 -£64.35
TOTALS
-£661.20 £415.70 -£245.50
P&L REAL TABLE BELOW:

 
STAYORGO PLACEPOT PROFIT/LOSS REAL SUMMARY





DATE MEETING REAL COSTS REAL RTNS REAL PROFIT





29/06/2017 NEWCASTLE A/W -£64.80 £0.00 -£64.80
30/06/2017 DONCASTER -£54.00 £25.80 -£28.20
30/06/2017 CHESTER -£64.80 £23.74 -£41.06
01/07/2017 NEWCASTLE A/W -£60.00 £126.56 £66.56
04/07/2017 BRIGHTON -£61.20 £54.18 -£7.02
05/07/2017 THIRSK -£67.80 £30.24 -£37.56
06/07/2017 HAYDOCK -£63.00 £20.10 -£42.90
TOTALS
-£435.60 £280.62 -£154.98
 

Most days I won't have time to study any form, so they will be purely statistics based most of the time.

I will keep two running profit and loss totals. One for "Virtual" and one for "Real"

On average I will stake around 100 "virtual pounds" per meeting. On some occasions, I may actually place the bets, if I do this I will keep a separate tally on "real" ones as well as the virtual.

GL to my fellow Placepot comrades. :=)

Cheers,

G
«134567

Comments

  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited June 2017
    Drawbias.com suggests a high draw bias over the straight course at Newcastle A/W. Particularly the shorter distances.

    I looked at the last 5 meetings and the results seem to back this up, and I would even suggest there is a high draw bias in the longer races. Although the shorter the race, the more the bias.

    It looks like the high draw (which I think is the stands side) is the place to be be.

    I will take this into consideration with my A, B, C selections.

    I think if we can combine a perm strategy with a known and reasonably consistent bias, we could benefit.

    We'll see anyway.

    Just thought I would put that out there.

    Cheers,

    G

  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited June 2017
    Subject to change before the off, but here we go for tomorrow (Thurs 29/06/17) at NEWCASTLE (A/W):

     

    PLACEPOT STATISTICAL STRATEGY TEST CASE NEWCASTLE (A/W) 29/06/2017











    LEG NEWCASTLE RUNNERS ODDS AT FORE COMP RATING PERM A PERM B PERM C PERM D PERM E PERM F
    1st 10 15/8, 4/1, 5/1, 6/1, 6/1 3 AB BCD AC, FAV FAV ABC ABD
    2nd 8 4/5, 5/2, 9/1, 9/1 2 B AB A AB A A
    3rd 14 (HC) 5/2, 5/1, 5/1, 9/1, 10/1, 12/1 4 ABD A AC AC AB AB
    4th 14 (HC) 9/2, 5/1, 13/2, 7/1, 8/1, 9/1, 11/1, 12/1 7 BCD BC ABE ABD ADE ACF
    5th 14 (HC) 4/1, 11/2, 11/2, 6/1, 7/1, 12/1, 14/1 6 AC ADE BCD ABD AB BCE
    6th 14 (H/C) 4/1, 6/1, 13/2, 9/1, 10/1,12/1, 12/1, 12/1 7 BCD ACD AB ABE ACD AB
    SELECTIONS:

     
    LEG HORSE A HORSE B HORSE C HORSE D HORSE E HORSE F
    2.00 06 – TALE OF TAILS 11/4 04 – KIT MARLOWE 11/4 07 – WEELLAN 7/2 09 – MOLLY MAYHEM 5/1

    2.30 03 – CURIOSITY 4/5 04 – MOVE IT MOVE IT 11/4



    3.05 06 – ARCHIPELIGO 11/4 03 – THERTHAAR 11/2 05 – AUSPICION 6/1 02 – HERNANDOS HIDEAWAY 8/1

    3.40 01 – BRIADALE 9/2 09 – CHESTNOT FIRE 15/2 08 – QAFFAAL 6/1 03 – REPLENISH 5/1 14 – HAMMER GUN 10/1 11 – CONSTANTINO 8/1
    4.15 08 – KUIPER BELT 5/1 05 – PENSAX LADY 6/1 01 – BEVERLEY BULLET 4/1 03 – SYMBOLIC STAR 7/1 12 – CLEAR AS A BELL 13/2
    4.50 12 – PENNY ARCADE 13/2 04 – COOL STRUTTER 7/2 01 – BROCTUNE PAPA GIO 7/1 11 – STATE RESIDENCE 8/1 03 – SAKHALIN STAR 7/1
    Each perm is 108 lines at a "virtual" 15p per line = £97.20

    Rather than class races as NON_COMPETITIVE, COMPETITIVE AND VERY COMPETITIVE, I have given them a "COMPETITIVE RATING" between 1 and 10, where 1 would be a real odds on shot and no strength in depth and 10 would be EXTREMELY competitive, like perhaps the LINCOLN, HUNT CUP or GRAND NATIONAL as examples.

    Cheers,

    G
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited June 2017
    Final selections now made
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited June 2017
    I decided to actually put the above perms on. I did them for 10p lines, so a total of £64.80

    So this will count as £64.80 in the "real" P&L chart and £97.20 in the "virtual" P&L chart.

    Cheers,

    G
  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,380
    edited June 2017
    good luck and good start

    Big Les my fancy in 2.30

    well done at least I got some place money
  • Phantom66Phantom66 Member Posts: 5,542
    edited June 2017
    Popped in to compare our perms and we have done different meetings.

    Am I right that your Perm A has come in?


  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited June 2017
    In Response to Re: Graham's Pratice Placepot Perms:
    Popped in to compare our perms and we have done different meetings. Am I right that your Perm A has come in?
    Posted by Phantom66
    Just got back from school run.

    I didn't have any of the first three in LEG 6 in my selections, so by default, must have bust all.

    I will do an equity calculator spreadsheet for your Newbury Placepot, just so you can see what is a good result and what is bad.

    Let me know if it's of use. I will explain how to calculate it later if you are interested. You may even be able to set a template up to calculate it with formulas.

    Cheers,

    G
  • Phantom66Phantom66 Member Posts: 5,542
    edited June 2017
    In Response to Re: Graham's Pratice Placepot Perms:
    In Response to Re: Graham's Pratice Placepot Perms : Just got back from school run. I didn't have any of the first three in LEG 6 in my selections, so by default, must have bust all. I will do an equity calculator spreadsheet for your Newbury Placepot, just so you can see what is a good result and what is bad. Let me know if it's of use. I will explain how to calculate it later if you are interested. You may even be able to set a template up to calculate it with formulas. Cheers, G
    Posted by StayOrGo
    Oops sorry about that accidental rubz.

    Very interested in the equity calculator, if I can automate it happy to do so to give some value back.
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited June 2017

    Running Totals after one Placepot Multi-Perm attempt on 29/06/17:

    Virtual Loss: -£97.20

    Actual Loss: -£64.80

  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited June 2017
    Doncaster tomorrow afternoon, and possibly Chester in the evening.

    Chester of course has one of the most well known and consistent draw biases in the county, with nearly all distances favouring low drawn runners.

    Cheers,

    G
  • wynne1938wynne1938 Member Posts: 20,556
    edited June 2017
    Unlucky Graham
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited June 2017
    I won't have time to study the form at Doncaster, so will be doing a statistics based Placepot, but would welcome any horse suggestions people may have for Doncaster.

    Not sure if it will be the Jackpot meeting or not. If it is, I may use peoples NAP selections.

    Cheers,

    G
  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,380
    edited June 2017
    In Response to Re: Graham's Pratice Placepot Perms:
    I won't have time to study the form at Doncaster, so will be doing a statistics based Placepot, but would welcome any horse suggestions people may have for Doncaster. Not sure if it will be the Jackpot meeting or not. If it is, I may use peoples NAP selections. Cheers, G
    Posted by StayOrGo[/QUOTE

    You will see I have joined the party Graham , only 3 real strong feelings for horses at Doncaster

    3.00 FLOOD DEFENCE
    3.30 MUSTARRID
    4.30 INCUS

    hOPE THAT HELPS
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited June 2017
    In Response to Re: Graham's Pratice Placepot Perms:
    In Response to Re: Graham's Pratice Placepot Perms :
    I won't have time to study the form at Doncaster, so will be doing a statistics based Placepot, but would welcome any horse suggestions people may have for Doncaster. Not sure if it will be the Jackpot meeting or not. If it is, I may use peoples NAP selections. Cheers, G Posted by StayOrGo[/QUOTE You will see I have joined the party Graham , only 3 real strong feelings for horses at Doncaster 3.00 FLOOD DEFENCE 3.30 MUSTARRID 4.30 INCUS hOPE THAT HELPS
    Posted by vaigret
    Thx V.
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited June 2017
    FYI. According to drawbias.com, High draw's (Stand side) are significantly favoured at Doncaster.

    We shall see. :=)
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited June 2017
    Looking at the figures from yesterday's Placepot at Newbury, it looks like 27% is taken from the pool and not 30% as I previously stated. (I will need to amend starting equity formula on spreadsheets)

    FYI, Jackpot is 29% and SCOOP6 30%.

    Cheers,

    G
  • MICKYBLUEMICKYBLUE Member Posts: 2,035
    edited June 2017
    wish you all the best of luck on this, i decided to not back due to dont think dividend would pay high enough to make a profit.
    my perm was 1900 bets tho, i was thinking need the fav beat in the second 
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited June 2017
    Final perm below:
    PLACEPOT STATISTICAL STRATEGY TEST CASE DONCASTER 30/06/2017










    DONCASTER RUNNERS ODDS AT FORE COMP RATING PERM A PERM B PERM C PERM D PERM E PERM F
    10 10/3, 7/2, 11/2, 11/2, 8/1, 11/1 4 AX BCX ACX BC AC BCD
    7 4/6, 6/1, 7/1, 9/1 2 A ACD A AB A A
    14 (HC) 5/1, 11/2, 13/2, 15/2, 15/2, 14/1 7 BCD BC ABE ABD ADE AC
    6 13/8, 4/1, 5/1, 11/2, 7/1, 20/1 3 ABC A AB A ACX ADX
    12 3/1, 4/1, 41, 6/1, 7/1, 8/1, 33/1 5 AC ADF BCD ABD AB BCE
    8 (HC0 11/4, 4/1, 6/1, 6/1, 15/2, 10/1, 12/1 5 ACD AC AB ABC ACD AB









    NUMBER OF LINES

    108 108 108 108 108 108
    LEG HORSE A HORSE B HORSE C HORSE D HORSE E HORSE F
    2.00 07 – JANE ROSE 7/2 04 – EIRENE 10/3 12 – SARDENYA 11/2 13 – SONG OF SUMMER 8/1

    2.30 04 – LEARN BY HEART 4/6 08 – ONE SECOND 7/1 01 – COASTAL DRIVE 6/1 05 – PORTH SWTAN 9/1

    3.00 14 – FLOOD DEFENCE 5/1 07 – FALSE ID 13/2 05 – JACK NEVISON 11/2 10 – BRYGHT BOY 15/2 08 – ASHWAQ 15/2 15 – SIZE MATTERS 14/1
    3.30 02 – CENTURY DREAM 13/8 04 – MOOLAZIM 4/1 07 – HELOVAPLAN 11/2 01 – MUSTARRID 7/1 05 – MATERIALIST 5/1
    4.00 07 – KITTY BOO 4/1 12 – SUPERIORITY COMPLEX 4/1 13 – WHAT A HOME 3/1 11 – SUGARDROP 6/1 05 – GREAT WHITE SHARK 7/1 10 – SHIMMERING LIGHT 8/1
    4.30 08 – BRAES OF LOCHAISH 11/4 02 – FIRE JET 4/1 04 – SILVA ECLIPSE 6/1 01 – INJAM 6/1 09 – INCUS 10/1
    G
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited June 2017
    OK didn't manage to get PERM F on in time, so just first 5 perms are live. (X = FAVOURITE)

    So real stakes = £54.00 (540 * 10p lines), virtual stakes = £97.20

    GL all!
  • StayOrGoStayOrGo Member Posts: 12,181
    edited June 2017
    Starting Equity before start:
    EQUITY PERM 1 PERM 2 PERM 3 PERM 4 PERM 5 PERM 6 TOTAL POOL/UNITS LEFT









    PERM COST £10.80 £10.80 £10.80 £10.80 £10.80 £10.80 £64.80 £100,203.76









    EQUITY BEFORE START £7.88 £7.88 £7.88 £7.88 £7.88 £7.88 £47.30 £73,149.00









    AFTER LEG 1 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
    AFTER LEG 2 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
    AFTER LEG 3 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
    AFTER LEG 4 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
    AFTER LEG 5 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
    AFTER LEG 6 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
     
    ACTIVE LINES PERM 1 PERM 2 PERM 3 PERM 4 PERM 5 PERM 6























    UPDATE BELOW LEG BY LEG








    2 3 3 2 2 3

    1 3 1 2 1 1

    3 2 3 3 3 2

    3 1 2 1 3 3

    2 3 3 3 2 3

    3 2 2 3 3 2
    ACTIVE LINES 108 108 108 108 108 108
    UNIT STAKE £0.10 £0.10 £0.10 £0.10 £0.10 £0.10
    MAX UNITS POS £10.80 £10.80 £10.80 £10.80 £10.80 £10.80
    G
Sign In or Register to comment.