Not a great start in LEG1 as I had in-named fav in all my perms and FINK HILL became favourite over ARCAVALLO in the last minute, but here's todays perm anyway. Already bust PERM D.
In Response to Re: Graham's Pratice Placepot Perms (P&L VIRTUAL AND REAL ON OP) : I got 12 lines on PERM B, (treble up last leg), shame FAV got dislodged in LEG1 otherwise would have been 18 lines in B and 6 in D. But never going to make money when dividend is so low. Will update OP now. Cheers, G Posted by StayOrGo
yes as spon as I switched off my laptop I thought missed his fav in last race
Hi all. I will be attempting the Placepot at Haydock tomorrow and was wondering if any of you would like to assist me with horse selection. As you know I am more of a statistics person, so was hoping some of you more horsey types could provide your A, B and C choices for each of the legs. FYI. According to drawbias.com there is a bias favouring High drawn runners over 5F, 6F and 1MILE and low draw runners over 7F If you have time please post your A, B and C selections for each race. If you don't have time to do each race, it would be great if you could look at the open handicaps, namely the 3.00PM and 4.00PM. I am hoping that maybe your "selections" and my "statistics" could be a winning formula. Don't worry if it's too time consuming, but if you have the time, it may be a fun thing to do. Cheers, G Posted by StayOrGo
Will do Graham but what I am finding with these placepots is they are too random. To get a really big dividend or one that really pays I would say you have got to have at least one fav if not two out of the places and of course get one of your "outsiders" in the places. But of course the time you do leave a fav out and you get an "outsider" in the fav gets in as well. then when you include a fav three outsiders come in.
What I am really trying to say is you need to work out which of the favs are false which is more like our removals process. I will try and look what I think are the weak favs for tomorrow and also A, b,C's.
Of course there is always the prob then that the "weak" fav then goes out in the betting late on and the new fav gets placed which is why your having fav in some races is good on one hand and not so helpful, ie fav gets placed and reduces payot , on the other.
In Response to Re: Graham's Pratice Placepot Perms (P&L VIRTUAL AND REAL ON OP) HELP REQUIRED : Will do Graham but what I am finding with these placepots is they are too random. To get a really big dividend or one that really pays I would say you have got to have at least one fav if not two out of the places and of course get one of your "outsiders" in the places. But of course the time you do leave a fav out and you get an "outsider" in the fav gets in as well. then when you include a fav three outsiders come in. What I am really trying to say is you need to work out which of the favs are false which is more like our removals process. I will try and look what I think are the weak favs for tomorrow and also A, b,C's. Of course there is always the prob then that the "weak" fav is Posted by vaigret
Cheers V.
Yes I agree, correctly identifying a weak favourite that finishes out of the frame can be very useful indeed equity wise, so would be interested in your thoughts on what you consider the weak favourites are.
The Placepot can be a very frustrating bet, as when you do big perms, even if you cash, you often get less back than you staked, but IF things do fall favourably it can pay handsomely. We've all seen that with Wynne.
Obviously if these favourites ARE out the frame, it's a doublepositive because we don't have them in our perm, when most others do, but if they DO place equally it is a double negative, so one could argue that it is one of the most important aspects of the bet. The success with which we can correctly eliminate favourites will have a significant impact upon results, but I am sure you know that.
The other thing that really makes a Placepot dividend BIG is if all the runners to the fore of the market are unplaced. Now this happens once in a blue moon, although slightly more often in 7 runner fields, so having the occasional outsider gives you the opportunity at least for it to happen. When Wynne won the huge one, he had an outsider in a 7 runner races as one of his selections, and the hot favourite ended up being third.
Generally speaking the bigger priced horses are under represented in the pool, but that "value" is only realised if they place and the fancied runners are out the frame.
One result like that can make up for a lot of near misses, but one has to be patient and invariably endure some tough and frustrating results before that happens. (or hopefully happens anyway :=))
Win or lose, I quite enjoy following the equity through, and assessing the pools to look for statistical value. I've spotted a few things like you could have two horses that are the same odds, one finished 6th in it's last race the other one won. In MOST cases the horse with a 1 in it's most recent form line is much more over subscribed despite, according to the odds, having the same chance.
Little things like this can give you an edge too. You have to give yourself a chance whilst also going slightly away from the "norm".
G are you ok for me to post my reasons for selections ? Posted by vaigret
Yes mate fire away, this is different to NAPS and REMOVALS where I didn't particularly want comments, because I wanted people to make their choices independently and not be swayed by others.
However, in this context, your comments could be very helpful.
Just a quick point, I will combine your selections with statistical and market mover info etc, so whilst your choices will form a large part of the process it is doubtful that they will remain exactly in the order you state, but I will take your selections seriously, you can count on that.
a= 1 LE CELEBS VILLE - 9-4 is C/ D winner and looks like stablemate Conquress put in to try and destroy chances of Miss Sheridan {front runner) and Make on Madam 7f horse. b= TRILLIANT - 7-1 C- HIDDEN CHARMS- 6-1 BOTH COULD BENEFIT FROM THE STRONG PACE AS BEEN DROPPED BACK IN DISTANCE.
2.30 A = 2- GREEN FORTUNE - 2-1 ONE OF ONLY TWO DISTANCE WINNERS IN FIELD AND THE OTHER IS TEMPERAMENTAL AND PENALY BURDENED HEAVILY. DRAWN HIGH B= 10 -THE RIGHT CHOICE 7-1- NO REASON WHY HE SHOULDNT BEAT RED FORCE ONE AGAIN C= 6- MOTABASSIM 33-1- ONE OF SHEIK HAMDOUN 'S 3 IN HERE AND TRAINER HAD SIMILAR WINNER DAY OR SO AGO, ALSO DRAWN HIGH HAVING SAID THET TAKE YOUR PICK OUT OF ANY OF 3 OF SHEIKS HORSES IN THIS AND HOPE YOU GET RIGHT ONE.
3.00 nOW WHICH OF THESE HORSES HAS BEEN SPECIALLY LAID OUT FOR NURSERY BY KEEPING THEIR LIGHT UNDER A BUSHEL. ONE RACE I WOULD LEAVE OUT THE FAVOURITE. OR CHOSE FAVOURITE WHICH COULD BE ANYONES GUESS..
A= 1- JUNE DOG 13-2 FAV -ONE OF ONLY TWO DISTANCE WINNERS AND I DONT LIKE THE OTHER TOO MANY RUNS TO BE AHEAD OF HANDICAPPER. tHIS ONE HIGHLY TRIED AT rOYAL ASCOT LAST TIME OVER 5F!!!!! WOULD HAVE THOUGHT A WINNER AT 6F COULD HAVE BEEN FOUND A 6f RACE AT THE ROYAL MEETING DRAWN HIGH B= 6 JIM ROCKFORD 6-1 C- 5 NEW EMPIRE7-1-BOTH LOOK LIKE THIS WHAT THEY WAITING FOR. AND BOTH DRAWN HIGH
Just a quick point, I will combine your selections with statistical and market mover info etc, so whilst your choices will form a large part of the process it is doubtful that they will remain exactly in the order you state, but I will take your selections seriously, you can count on that. Cheers, G Posted by StayOrGo
NO PROBS ITS YOUR PLACEPOT AFTERALL. I WILL PROBABLY USE MY IDEAS IN MINE ANYWAY AFTER DOING THIS TRAWL.
Can I be a real pain, would it be possible just to add the current odds of your selections, just so I can see at a glance the "dynamic", also if you recommend to leave a favourite or two out, can you provide their odds?
It will just enable me, at a glance, to get an idea of the situation and also, tomorrow, I can see if there has been support overnight or if it has drifted.
Hi V, great info. TY. Can I be a real pain, would it be possible just to add the current odds of your selections, just so I can see at a glance the "dynamic", also if you recommend to leave a favourite or two out, can you provide their odds? It will just enable me, at a glance, to get an idea of the situation and also, tomorrow, I can see if there has been support overnight or if it has drifted. Cheers, G Posted by StayOrGo
LOL YOU DONT ASK MUCH DO YOU MATE !!!
HERE GOES WITH LAST 3 RACES
3.30 A - 4 FALCONS VISION 15-8 B- 3 FABELLA BELLE 12-1 C- 6 POINT HOPE 5-2
NO SURPRISES THERE
4.00 A- 9- MANNERS PLEASE 11-2 -GREAT CHANCE IF FIT FOR DEBUT THIS SEASON B- 5 -CAPTAIN REVALATION 13-2 - GOOD TRAINER JOCKEY COMB HERE AND JUST HAVE A FEELING, BEEN DROPPING IN WEIGHTS C- 10 MAGIC MOMENTS 4-1 -BOTTOM OF WEIGHTS AND WINNER TWO RACES AGO
AGAINST FAV JAY KAY 7-2
4.30 AGAINST FAV AGAIN -JACK FLASH 2-1 A= 1 MERRY BANTER - 11-4 -HIGHLY TRIED LAST TIME AFTER GOOD SECOND B- 6 FOXCATCHER 7-1 -STOPPED TWICE IN RUN LAST TIME C- 3 ROCK ON AMERICA 8-1-
In Response to Re: Graham's Pratice Placepot Perms (P&L VIRTUAL AND REAL ON OP) HELP REQUIRED : LOL YOU DONT ASK MUCH DO YOU MATE !!! HERE GOES WITH LAST 3 RACES 3.30 A - 4 FALCONS VISION 15-8 B- 3 FABELLA BELLE 12-1 C- 6 POINT HOPE 5-2 NO SURPRISES THERE 4.00 A- 9- MANNERS PLEASE 11-2 -GREAT CHANCE IF FIT FOR DEBUT THIS SEASON B- 5 - CAPTAIN REVALATION 13-2 - GOOD TRAINER JOCKEY COMB HERE AND JUST HAVE A FEELING, BEEN DROPPING IN WEIGHTS C - 10 MAGIC MOMENTS 4-1 -BOTTOM OF WEIGHTS AND WINNER TWO RACES AGO AGAINST FAV JAY KAY 7-2 4.30 AGAINST FAV AGAIN - JACK FLASH 2-1 A= 1 MERRY BANTER - 11-4 -HIGHLY TRIED LAST TIME AFTER GOOD SECOND B- 6 FOXCATCHER 7-1 -STOPPED TWICE IN RUN LAST TIME C- 3 ROCK ON AMERICA 8-1 - HOPE THESE HELP Posted by vaigret
Great stuff mate, TY!
Yes, was a bit cheeky of me to ask for the prices too, but does help a lot.
Comments
Bit unlucky to only get it for 20p as I had many more double/treble ups in perms that bust.
But not too much of a loss anyway. (lost £7.02)
Virtual was stake £91.80, return £81.27
G
G
As usual, real 10p lines and virtual 15p lines.
But that happens, could easily have been the other way around.
Table updated for equity after LEG 3, school run now beckons:
G
But never going to make money when dividend is so low.
Will update OP now.
Cheers,
G
I will be attempting the Placepot at Haydock tomorrow and was wondering if any of you would like to assist me with horse selection.
As you know I am more of a statistics person, so was hoping some of you more horsey types could provide your A, B and C choices for each of the legs.
FYI. According to drawbias.com there is a bias favouring High drawn runners over 5F, 6F and 1MILE and low draw runners over 7F
If you have time please post your A, B and C selections for each race.
If you don't have time to do each race, it would be great if you could look at the open handicaps, namely the 3.00PM and 4.00PM.
I am hoping that maybe your "selections" and my "statistics" could be a winning formula.
Don't worry if it's too time consuming, but if you have the time, it may be a fun thing to do.
Cheers,
G
What I am really trying to say is you need to work out which of the favs are false which is more like our removals process. I will try and look what I think are the weak favs for tomorrow and also A, b,C's.
Of course there is always the prob then that the "weak" fav then goes out in the betting late on and the new fav gets placed which is why your having fav in some races is good on one hand and not so helpful, ie fav gets placed and reduces payot , on the other.
Yes I agree, correctly identifying a weak favourite that finishes out of the frame can be very useful indeed equity wise, so would be interested in your thoughts on what you consider the weak favourites are.
The Placepot can be a very frustrating bet, as when you do big perms, even if you cash, you often get less back than you staked, but IF things do fall favourably it can pay handsomely. We've all seen that with Wynne.
Obviously if these favourites ARE out the frame, it's a double positive because we don't have them in our perm, when most others do, but if they DO place equally it is a double negative, so one could argue that it is one of the most important aspects of the bet. The success with which we can correctly eliminate favourites will have a significant impact upon results, but I am sure you know that.
The other thing that really makes a Placepot dividend BIG is if all the runners to the fore of the market are unplaced. Now this happens once in a blue moon, although slightly more often in 7 runner fields, so having the occasional outsider gives you the opportunity at least for it to happen. When Wynne won the huge one, he had an outsider in a 7 runner races as one of his selections, and the hot favourite ended up being third.
Generally speaking the bigger priced horses are under represented in the pool, but that "value" is only realised if they place and the fancied runners are out the frame.
One result like that can make up for a lot of near misses, but one has to be patient and invariably endure some tough and frustrating results before that happens. (or hopefully happens anyway :=))
Win or lose, I quite enjoy following the equity through, and assessing the pools to look for statistical value. I've spotted a few things like you could have two horses that are the same odds, one finished 6th in it's last race the other one won. In MOST cases the horse with a 1 in it's most recent form line is much more over subscribed despite, according to the odds, having the same chance.
Little things like this can give you an edge too. You have to give yourself a chance whilst also going slightly away from the "norm".
Thanks again for your help.
G
However, in this context, your comments could be very helpful.
Cheers,
G
Cheers,
G
2.00
a= 1 LE CELEBS VILLE - 9-4 is C/ D winner and looks like stablemate Conquress put in to try and destroy chances of Miss Sheridan {front runner) and Make on Madam 7f horse.
b= TRILLIANT - 7-1
C- HIDDEN CHARMS- 6-1 BOTH COULD BENEFIT FROM THE STRONG PACE AS BEEN DROPPED BACK IN DISTANCE.
2.30
A = 2- GREEN FORTUNE - 2-1 ONE OF ONLY TWO DISTANCE WINNERS IN FIELD AND THE OTHER IS TEMPERAMENTAL AND PENALY BURDENED HEAVILY. DRAWN HIGH
B= 10 -THE RIGHT CHOICE 7-1- NO REASON WHY HE SHOULDNT BEAT RED FORCE ONE AGAIN
C= 6- MOTABASSIM 33-1- ONE OF SHEIK HAMDOUN 'S 3 IN HERE AND TRAINER HAD SIMILAR WINNER DAY OR SO AGO, ALSO DRAWN HIGH HAVING SAID THET TAKE YOUR PICK OUT OF ANY OF 3 OF SHEIKS HORSES IN THIS AND HOPE YOU GET RIGHT ONE.
3.00
nOW WHICH OF THESE HORSES HAS BEEN SPECIALLY LAID OUT FOR NURSERY BY KEEPING THEIR LIGHT UNDER A BUSHEL. ONE RACE I WOULD LEAVE OUT THE FAVOURITE. OR CHOSE FAVOURITE WHICH COULD BE ANYONES GUESS..
A= 1- JUNE DOG 13-2 FAV -ONE OF ONLY TWO DISTANCE WINNERS AND I DONT LIKE THE OTHER TOO MANY RUNS TO BE AHEAD OF HANDICAPPER. tHIS ONE HIGHLY TRIED AT rOYAL ASCOT LAST TIME OVER 5F!!!!! WOULD HAVE THOUGHT A WINNER AT 6F COULD HAVE BEEN FOUND A 6f RACE AT THE ROYAL MEETING DRAWN HIGH
B= 6 JIM ROCKFORD 6-1
C- 5 NEW EMPIRE 7-1-BOTH LOOK LIKE THIS WHAT THEY WAITING FOR. AND BOTH DRAWN HIGH
gOOD FUN THOUGH
Can I be a real pain, would it be possible just to add the current odds of your selections, just so I can see at a glance the "dynamic", also if you recommend to leave a favourite or two out, can you provide their odds?
It will just enable me, at a glance, to get an idea of the situation and also, tomorrow, I can see if there has been support overnight or if it has drifted.
Cheers,
G
HERE GOES WITH LAST 3 RACES
3.30
A - 4 FALCONS VISION 15-8
B- 3 FABELLA BELLE 12-1
C- 6 POINT HOPE 5-2
NO SURPRISES THERE
4.00
A- 9- MANNERS PLEASE 11-2 -GREAT CHANCE IF FIT FOR DEBUT THIS SEASON
B- 5 -CAPTAIN REVALATION 13-2 - GOOD TRAINER JOCKEY COMB HERE AND JUST HAVE A FEELING, BEEN DROPPING IN WEIGHTS
C- 10 MAGIC MOMENTS 4-1 -BOTTOM OF WEIGHTS AND WINNER TWO RACES AGO
AGAINST FAV JAY KAY 7-2
4.30
AGAINST FAV AGAIN -JACK FLASH 2-1
A= 1 MERRY BANTER - 11-4 -HIGHLY TRIED LAST TIME AFTER GOOD SECOND
B- 6 FOXCATCHER 7-1 -STOPPED TWICE IN RUN LAST TIME
C- 3 ROCK ON AMERICA 8-1-
HOPE THESE HELP
Yes, was a bit cheeky of me to ask for the prices too, but does help a lot.
Lets see how we go tomorrow.
Thanks again,
G