Following on from my previous posts, the odds haven't been compiled yet for all of tomorrow's races, but there looks to be a few tough cards and big fields for them to choose from.
So I suggest we "sit tight" tomorrow and hope for a rollover.
Wynne and I moved up into profit with the same 2 wins, but it is Misty who holds on quite comfortably in the end for top spot for the week, closely followed by Micky.
JACKPOT SYNDICATE WEEKLY NAPS TABLE 06/07/2017 WEEK13 31/07/17 TO 06/08/2017
The SP accumulator at Carlisle (For all 7 races) will be greater than 1,000,000 to 1!
When assessing if we are going to do the Jackpot, I have an calculated "guess" of what I think the SP accumulator will pay, and if it's too high (ie too difficult), in relation to the rollover then we give it a miss.
I do this by trying to work out statistically what the mean average SP of the winner of each race would be (if each horse won in line with it's odds), and multiplying them up. So if the same race card configuration was run 100 times an even money shot would win 50 times and a 33/1 shot 3 times, 4/1 shot 20 times etc. (assuming 100% betting percentage)
Normally any figure over 25,000/1 is enough to call it a NO-GO unless the rollover is massive.
I did Carlisle today and the first six races came out at over 200,000 to 1, and if I add the 7th race then over 1,000,000 to 1.
So I do hope the Jackpot is at Carlisle, my prediction is that the SP accumulator of the 7 winners across the card will be greater than 1,000,000 to 1 and the Jackpot (If at Carlisle) will be a rollover AFTER LEG 4.
Who's under and who's over the million to one then?
I'm in the "over" camp obviously. (and well over at that) :=)
Cheers,
G
P.S. This is assuming that there are not too many non runners.
First monthly update for August. Please note when checking there have only been 6 days in August so results do not include Monday's scores and so do not match the weekly table. Misty is still in front though...
JACKPOT SYNDICATE MONTHLY NAPS TABLE AS OF 06/08/2017 August 2017
POS SKY USERID SEL WINS PLACES UNPLACED Start PROFIT TODAY
I would be grateful for a check on the above tables especially, as the switch to a new month gives chances for plenty of slip-ups by me and there are 2 updates in one on the LIVE table.
I will consider these provisional until confirmed by Vaigret or corrected at which point I will update the OP and email G the latest spreadsheets.
Comments
4.15: CATAI GLORY
4.50: DEMONS ROCK
Misty is on fire with 2 more winners to take the lead and Snuffer makes a move with a 6/1 shot.
Cheers,
G
It's a rollover, but I have no clue where to yet.
If anyone does manage to find out please post here, as it would be better if we knew what we were doing tonight.
Cheers,
G
So I suggest we "sit tight" tomorrow and hope for a rollover.
So just one selection please for Monday.
Cheers,
G
Surely it must be one of the above.
GL with your NAP. Just the one.
Cheers,
G
Here's a bold prediction for tomorrow.
The SP accumulator at Carlisle (For all 7 races) will be greater than 1,000,000 to 1!
When assessing if we are going to do the Jackpot, I have an calculated "guess" of what I think the SP accumulator will pay, and if it's too high (ie too difficult), in relation to the rollover then we give it a miss.
I do this by trying to work out statistically what the mean average SP of the winner of each race would be (if each horse won in line with it's odds), and multiplying them up. So if the same race card configuration was run 100 times an even money shot would win 50 times and a 33/1 shot 3 times, 4/1 shot 20 times etc. (assuming 100% betting percentage)
Normally any figure over 25,000/1 is enough to call it a NO-GO unless the rollover is massive.
I did Carlisle today and the first six races came out at over 200,000 to 1, and if I add the 7th race then over 1,000,000 to 1.
So I do hope the Jackpot is at Carlisle, my prediction is that the SP accumulator of the 7 winners across the card will be greater than 1,000,000 to 1 and the Jackpot (If at Carlisle) will be a rollover AFTER LEG 4.
Who's under and who's over the million to one then?
I'm in the "over" camp obviously. (and well over at that) :=)
Cheers,
G
P.S. This is assuming that there are not too many non runners.
Quite a close table this one with less than £8.50 separating the top 7 and less than £16 between the top 10.
Be interesting to see how this one progresses throughout the year.
G
Still Mr V out in front...
I will consider these provisional until confirmed by Vaigret or corrected at which point I will update the OP and email G the latest spreadsheets.