Nursery Form and help with novice events.

vaigret

I have often thought is there  a way of getting more of an in to backing winners in 2YO novice/maiden races and nursery handicaps from June onwards . Firstly to enter a nursery the horse has to have been in three races or had at least two wins. 

So what I want to investigate is :-

1. How many horses who have not won before win their third race in a novice/maiden

2. how many horses win a nursery on their fourth start. 

i think the first might give better info especially if to a certain extent you also syphon off some of the really top trainer/rich owner  horses . My thinking is that the third run might just be to get them a good handicap mark for nurseries and therefore reduce the number of horses trying to win.

It might be a bit late for this season to come to any conclusions but it might help for next. 

LOOKS LIKE FROM EARLY OCTOBER THAT THE THREE RUNS TO GET INTO NURSERY TO WIN IT STARTS TO PRODUCE TOO MANY LOSERS. LOOKED GOOD UNTIL THEN.

Anyway lets start the database

18/9/2017  -  1                                                                      

Brighton 2.10 - 1- ARACHINA LOST                    

CARLSLE 3.20 - 1- DIVINE INTUITION LOST

CARLISLE 3.55 - 2- POWERFUL SOCIETY, WON 9-4 ELYSEE STAR 4TH , SHOW PRINCESS 3RD 20-1

19/9/2017

REDCAR 1.20 - 1- BARNEY BULLET LOST, BONANZA BOWLS LOST, ARCTIC TREASURE LOST, KYLACCHY DRAGON LOST, 

REDCAR 1.50 - 2- DARK  LIBERTY WON 9-1, EMERALD ROCKET LOST, GRAPHITE GIRL LOST

CHEPSTOW 1.40 - 1- DIVA STAR LOST, GOODNIGHT GIRL LOST, HURRICANE LIL LOST, LAMB CHOP LOST, POLYSSIMO LOST

2.45 CHEPSTOW - 2- MOTOWN MICK WON 5-1, SWISSAL, LOST

YARMOUTH 2.00 - 1- MASHASHEER LOST, ZIZUM LOST, EQUILIBRIUM LOST, MANDARIN PRINCE LOST

YARMOUTH 2.35 - 2- RAYNAS WORLD WON 9-1

NEWCASTLE 7.10 - 1 - AMAZING ROCK LOST, COMPLIANCE LOST, THUNDER NORTH LOST, TOMMY SHELBY LOST

NEWCASTLE 7.40 -1- CHEF UNITED, LOST 

NEWCASTLE 8,10 - 2 - ECHO LOST , TROOP LOST, BEE MACHINE LOST

vaigret

This is unbeleivable after 9 races a 100% strike rate.

1 -Horses having there third run in a maiden/novice- 15 horses in 5 races  ALL LOST -100% WHAT i "THOUGHT" MIGHT BE THE CASE - BEGINNERS LUCK ?

2- Horses having their fourth run in Nursery - four nursery races all won by horses having their 4th run at  9-4, 9-1, 9-1 and  5-1. Other horses running against them in those races produced 20-1 3rd and 4 losers.

Luckily further looks meant I was on two of them at 9-1 and 5-1 left the other two races alone unfortunately but I would have been on both if more confident.

EARLY DAYS BUT LOOKING GOOD AT MO. 

Watch it all go wrong at newcastle tonite

vaigret

o.	Selections	Event	Event Date	E/W Terms	Odds	Result
1	Motown Mick	2.45 Chepstow (Race 3) (Win and Each Way)  Live Stream	19/09/2017	3 Places 1/5 Odds	13/2	Won
2	Dark Liberty	1.50 Redcar (Race 2) (Win and Each Way)  Live Stream	19/09/2017	3 Places 1/5 Odds	9/1	Won
	Best Odds applied, price updated to SP.

Multiples

Bet Type	No.of Bets	Unit Stake	Total Stake	To Return	Return
E/W Doubles	1	0.30	0.60		24.44

Total Stake:  0.60   Total Returns:  24.44

StayOrGo

Good start V, best of luck with it. It makes sense that trainers/owners will try and get their horse off a good mark for it's first handicap.

Good luck.

G

vaigret

In Response to Re: Nursery Form and help with novice events.:

Good start V, best of luck with it. It makes sense that trainers/owners will try and get their horse off a good mark for it's first handicap. Good luck. G
Posted by StayOrGo

Thanks G the idea was to get a database for my theory which might help for jackpot trys , didnt think for one moment it would pay dividends so early, in fact didnt even know it would produce any decent stats. Cant beleive the start, can only go downhill.

V

vaigret

RESULTS AFTER TWO DAYS 

1 - 100% STRIKE RATE - BETTER THAN EXPECTED

2-  4 wINNERS FROM THE CATEGORY IN 5 RACES - £1 ON ALL QUALIFIED HORSES WITHOUT FURTHER INVESTIGATION WOULD STILL HAVE PRODUCED A PROFIT OF £17.25.

WINNING TRAINERS

R.HANNON

R.FAHEY

R. WHITAKER

P KIRBY

vaigret

20/9/2017

SANDOWN 2-00 - 1 - ADAMS PARK LOST, HOMERTON LOST , KITAABAAT WON

BEVERLEY 1.50 -1-  HONEY GG LOST

BEVERLEY 2.20 - 1 - HELEN SHERBET LOST

BEVERLEY 2.55 - 1 - FIRBY LOST, VERA DRAKE LOST

BEVERLEY 4.35 - 1 - LAUBALI LOST, CUPPACOCO LOST, MAGIC PULSE LOST

YARMOUTH 2.45 - 1- BAJAN GOLD LOST

21/9/2017

YARMOUTH 2.00 - 1- GABR WON, SNAFFLED LOST

YARMOUTH 2.30 -1- LONG EMBRACE LOST, ROZANNE LOST, WOTAMADAM LOST

YARMOUTH 3.00 -2- FOREVER IN LOVE LOST

PONTEFRACT 2.20 - 1- BLACK FRIDAY LOST, SOVEREIGN STATE LOST

CHELMSFORD 5.45 - 2- AWSAAF LOST

MISTY4ME

In Response to Re: Nursery Form and help with novice events.:

RESULTS AFTER TWO DAYS  1 - 100% STRIKE RATE - BETTER THAN EXPECTED 2-  4 wINNERS FROM THE CATEGORY IN 5 RACES - £1 ON ALL QUALIFIED HORSES WITHOUT FURTHER INVESTIGATION WOULD STILL HAVE PRODUCED A PROFIT OF £17.25.
Posted by vaigret

very interesting V.

WELL DONE

vaigret

In Response to Re: Nursery Form and help with novice events.:

In Response to Re: Nursery Form and help with novice events. : very interesting V. WELL DONE
Posted by MISTY4ME

thx

Phantom66

Good start.

There are plenty of free databases out there so it should be possible to check your theory from a larger sample?

It would be interesting to see if any particular trainers follow this pattern more than others.

vaigret

In Response to Re: Nursery Form and help with novice events.:

Good start. There are plenty of free databases out there so it should be possible to check your theory from a larger sample? It would be interesting to see if any particular trainers follow this pattern more than others.
Posted by Phantom66

Hi Phantom

Ilooked for some figures which were similar to my idea but couldnt find any that would give me the info quickly so I thoght I would do one here. 

Just hope it helps

vaigret

RESULTS AFTER FOUR DAYS

1- STILL 100% LOSERS WITH SYPHONING OFF . 38 RUNNERS 36 LOSERS.

2- 4 WINNERS FROM THE CATEGORY OUT OF 7 RACES. 4 WINNERS FROM 14 RUNNERS STILL HAS PRODUCED £15.25 UP TO £1 LEVEL STAKE on all runners who qualify.

THE TWO RUNNERS ON 21/9 WHO LOST trained by Crisford and Stoute and owned by Cheveley Park and Maktoum Al Maktoum who I dont think are in the game to win nurseries. 

WINNING TRAINERS

R.HANNON

R.FAHEY

R. WHITAKER

P KIRBY

vaigret

22/9/17

NEWBURY 1.20 - 1- BLACKHEATH LOST, QUICK BREATH LOST, AVON GREEN LOST, 

NEWBURY 1.50 - 1- AUTHENTIC ART LOST

NEWBURY 2.25 - 2- BOMBASTIC LOST

NEWBURY 4.35 - 1 - CHILLALA LOST

NEWCASTLE 7.15 -2- SOSIAN LOST , GEESALA BRAVE LOST, ONEARNIESHORT LOST, DUKE OF FREEDOM LOST,  ELUSIVE BID LOST

NEWCASTLE 7.45 - 2- FINK HILL LOST, EL BERTIE LOST, ALBARINO LOST

23/9/17

NEWBURY 1.15 - 1 - PEGGIE SUE LOST

NEWBURY 1.45 - 1 - CAPITAL FLIGHT LOST, MATEWAN LOST, FOX ANGEL LOST

CATTERICK 2.25 - 1- THREE SAINTS BAY LOST

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.10 - 1 - RUBY SOUND LOST, VIOLET BEAUREGARD LOST, WESTERN DYNAMISME LOST

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.40 - 1 - KIND ACT WON, MISS MUMTAZ LOST , 

NEWMARKET 1.25 - 1- NARODAWA LOST, STREAM SONG WON

NEWMARKET 3.45 - 1 - DANCE TO PARIS LOST

vaigret

latest results 

1- 98% Should still be 100% as I think John Gosden and George Strawbridge should be big and rich enough to have been syphoned off but  I didnt so they weren't. Now standing at 51 losers , 1 winner and 3 syphoned off winners

2- 4 winners out of 10 races so the start was beginners luck . 4 winners out of 23 runners has still produced profit to a £1 level stake of £6.25.

WINNING TRAINERS

R.HANNON

R.FAHEY

R. WHITAKER

P KIRBY

vaigret

25/9/17

KEMPTON 1.50 - 1 - SHADOW SEEKER LOST, POPPY JAG LOST

KEMPTON 2.25 - 1 - MASTERS APPRENTICE LOST

KEMPTON 4.05 - 1 - POWER & PEACE LOST

LEICESTER 2.00 2-  HOLLYWOOD DREAM LOST, HIPPEIA LOST,  ISABELLA MAYSON LOST

LEICESTER 3.05- 1 - BODIEAND DOYLE LOST, PRINCE CONSORT LOST

26/9/17

LINGFIELD 2.00 - 1- APEX PREDATOR LOST, DREAM MOUNT WON

LINGFIELD 2.35 - 1 - CONNAUGHT RANGER WON, PROTECTED GUEST LOST 2ND

BEVERLEY 2.10 - 1 - LITTLE RED BERRY LOST, TARNHELM LOST

BEVERLEY 2.45 - 1 - BUCKSTOPPER KIT WON, SALIRE LOST, SHEF WEDSNEIGH LOST

CHELMSFORD 6.40 - 1- CRISTAL PALACE CAT LOST, TIPI  LOST, ESPICIA WON, NAMPARA LOST

vaigret

Well maidens with two runs dont win went a bit haywire today with 4 unsyphoned off winners reducing the percentage . Perhaps late in the season means they are not running them for nursery handicap marks, We will only know if I keep this up for a year. I'll try anyway latest stats are :=

1. 93% LOSERS - 69 LOSERS , 5 WINNERS AND 3 SYPHONED OFF.

3 OF TODAYS WINNERS WERE IN AUCTION STAKES SO MIGHT HAVE TO LOOK AT THEM AS A LEAVE.

TRAINERS WHO BUCKED THE SYSTEM AND PERHAPS SHOULD BE SYPHONED OFF IF STATS BACK IT UP OVER A PERIOD ARE:-

R.FAHEY

M BOTTI

D COAKLEY

S.WILLIAMS

2. - 4 winners out of 11 races so the start was beginners luck . 4 winners out of 26 runners has still produced profit to a £1 level stake of £3.25.

WINNING TRAINERS

R.HANNON

R.FAHEY

R. WHITAKER

P KIRBY

vaigret

LOTS OF 3 RUN HORSES IN NURSERIES SO HAVE SHORTLISTED IN BOLD

27/9/17

REDCAR 2-00 - 2- MAGIC SHIP, REMA AL KUWAIT, ELEMENTS QUEST, MARCONI, EYES OF FIRE, THE GINGERBREADMAN,

SIR WALTER, LITTLE MONKEY, CRAZY WORLD WINNER 20-1

REDCAR 2.30 - 2- BERTIE WALLACE LOST, MAKEOFITWHATYOUWILL LOST, LUCKYS DREAM LOST, AIRPLANE LOST, SURRENDER LOST, JAYCOLS START LOST

REDCAR 3.00 -1 - ALHAJAR WON, RAILPORT DOLLY LOST

REDCAR 3.35 - 1- LEVER DU SOLEIL LOST, SUNSTORM LOST

GOODWOOD 2.10 - 1 - KNIGHTLY SPIRIT LOST, AMENHOPEPTHIRD LOST, BERKSHIRE SPIRIT LOST, LA LA LAND LOST, NEBUCHADNEZZAR LOST, MT AUGUSTUS LOST, VOICE OF THE NORTH LOST

KEMPTON 5.40 - 2- PREZZIE, LETSBY AVENUE WINNER  11-1, MIMRAM, 

KEMPTON 6.10 - 1 - ANTAGONIST LOST, QUEENS GALLERY LOST

KEMPTON 6.40 - 1 - EXPROMPT LOST, PHILAMUNDO LOST, PORT OF CALL LOST, SWISS PALM LOST

KEMPTON 7.10 - 1 - BOWLER HAT LOST, ITS NOT USUAL LOST, STORM JAZZ LOST

28/9/17

NEWMARKET 2.00 - 1- BONIFACE LOST, SHERZY BOY LOST

NEWMARKET 2.35 - 2 - RASTRELLI WON 7-2, GLOBAL CONQUEROR 2ND

PONTEFRACT 2.20 - 1- ORMESHAR LOST

PONTEFRACT 2.55 - 2 - MAHAARAT LOST, AMAZING MICHELE LOST, CAMOMILE LAWN LOST, BAREFOOT BABY LOST

PONTEFRACT 5.15 - 1 - THE KNOT IS TIED LOST

CHELMSFORD 5.45 - 1 - DASHING DUSTY LOST, HARBOUR VISION WON

CHELMSFORD 6.15 - 2 -  FARAASAH LOST,  MOSEEB LOST, SHAYA LOST

vaigret

silly bet to cover my shortlist

Magic Ship @ 14/1
Rema Al Kuwait @ 6/1
Elements Quest @ 10/1
Bertie Wallace @ 14/1
Makofitwhatyouwill @ 20/1
Letsbe Avenue @ 11/1
Prezzie @ 14/1
Trebles, 12 bets * £0.10  E/W

vaigret

RESULTS AFTER TEN DAYS

1. 94% LOSERS, 93 LOSERS, 6 WINNERS AND 4 SYPHONED OFF.

TRAINERS WHO BUCKED THE SYSTEM AND PERHAPS SHOULD BE SYPHONED OFF IF STATS BACK IT UP OVER A PERIOD ARE:-

R.FAHEY

M BOTTI

D COAKLEY

S.WILLIAMS

D, BROWN

2. 7 WINNERS FROM 17 RACES AND THESE FROM 53 HORSES STILL PRODUCED A PROFIT OF £13.75 SO FAR BACKING ALL OF THEM AT A £1 LEVEL STAKE.

WINNING TRAINERS

R.HANNON X 2

R.FAHEY

R. WHITAKER

P KIRBY

D. CARROLL

C.APPLEBY

vaigret

29/09/17

HAYDOCK 2.45 - 1- DEECIDER LOST, FEEBS WON, MUTABAAHY LOST

HAYDOCK 3.20 - 1 - AGENT ERROR LOST, DUSTY LOST, ISABELLA RUBY LOST, LA BELLE MAYSON LOST

HAYDOCK 3.55 - 2 - UPSTICKS AND GO 2ND, ROCK HILL LOST

NEWMARKET 4.10 - 1- VISION CLEAR LOST

30/9/17

NEWMARKET 4.10 - 1- FAAY LOST, SIGRID NANSEN LOST, LATE CHANGE LOST, MISS MINDING LOST

NEWMARKET 4.45 - 2- EXHORT LOST, TIME CHANGE LOST, AWESOME TANK WON, GOODNIGHT GIRL LOST, LAST ENCHANTMENT LOST, FALCONS VISION LOST

HAYDOCK 1.35 - 1- PELICE LOST

HAYDOCK 4.25 - 1 - ABITOFATOUCH LOST, SKITO SOLDIER LOST

RIPON 2.00 -1 - SHOWMETHEDOUGH WON, 

RIPON 2.35 - 2-  KNIGHT IN ARMOUR LOST, NORMANDY BLUE LOST

vaigret

RESULTS AFTER 12 DAYS

1-  93 % - 107 LOSERS 8 WINNERS AND 4 SYPHONED OFF

TRAINERS WHO BUCKED THE SYSTEM AND PERHAPS SHOULD BE SYPHONED OFF IF STATS BACK IT UP OVER A PERIOD ARE:-

R.FAHEY X 2

M BOTTI

D COAKLEY

S.WILLIAMS

D, BROWN

T .EASTERBY

2. - 8 WINNERS FROM 20 RACES AND THESE FROM 63 HORSES BUT STILL SHOWS A PROFIT IF ALL BACKED TO A £1 STAKE OF £11.75

WINNING TRAINERS

R.HANNON X 2

R.FAHEY

R. WHITAKER

P KIRBY

D. CARROLL

C.APPLEBY

W. HAGGAS