You may have noticed I havent kept this up to date recently with horses running for the third time in novices and the likelihood they will lose so better handicapped for Nurseries. As this only produces horses not to bet on Im not going to keep going.
However the nursery one bore dividends last year as it produces winners although sometimes 2 or 3 alternatives and you have to pick the right one. I am starting earlier this year as tonight at Kempton 5.30 three horses were having their fourth race in a nursery and they came first , second and third at 8-1, 7-2 and 8-1, beleive it or not I only did the second and third LOL. So here were the trainers who were on the ball with this last flat season.
WINNING TRAINERS WHO SENT OUT A HORSE TO WIN A NURSERY WITH ITS FOURTH RUN R.HANNON X 2 R.FAHEY X 2 R. WHITAKER P KIRBY D. CARROLL C.APPLEBY W. HAGGAS B. ELLISON K. MCLINTOCK D.BROWN X 2 C.COX M,MEADE O.BURROWS MRS A DUFFIELD M.CHANNON S,KIRK M. JOHNSTON X 2 B HASLAM J FANSHAW J. OSBOURNE R.INGHAM T.COYLE
to add from today 15/8/18 David Loughnihane
Will now do horses that qualify from now on and the P/l for backing them all to £1 unit. Produced handsome £102 pounds profit last year backing all horses who qualified.
WINNING TRAINERS WHO SENT OUT A HORSE TO WIN A NURSERY WITH ITS FOURTH RUN 2017 R.HANNON X 2 R.FAHEY X 2 R. WHITAKER P KIRBY D. CARROLL C.APPLEBY W. HAGGAS B. ELLISON K. MCLINTOCK D.BROWN X 2 C.COX M,MEADE O.BURROWS MRS A DUFFIELD M.CHANNON S,KIRK M. JOHNSTON X 2 B HASLAM J FANSHAW J. OSBOURNE R.INGHAM T.COYLE
WINNING TRAINERS WHO SENT OUT A HORSE TO WIN A NURSERY WITH ITS FOURTH RUN 2018
WINNING TRAINERS WHO SENT OUT A HORSE TO WIN A NURSERY WITH ITS FOURTH RUN 2018
D.LOUGHNIHANE ED WALKER R. HANNON M JOHNSTON
£29.54 DOWN and Might have missed a few winners ha ha or a few losers as been too busy with Granddaughter and BLUE MOON recently TO NOTICE WHAT ARE NURSERIES AND WHAT AREN'T.
Yes I think you could if you concentrate on three year olds in handicaps in excess of a mile from now til the end of season especially ones having their first run in a handicap and especially if they have run at shorter distances up to now without winning.
I am not the best person to follow this as i like to come up with my own trends but it certainly something I bear in mind on a general basis. Also when going through races there are often times when i think why is this horse running in this race, I then look into them further and they often win or get placed at a good price.
This week for example their were two horses I thought why and I was unlucky with both. Firstl Amma Jameela. Raced in Germany under a mile, then bought by jumps trainer Lucy wadham and ran recently at mile. Suddenly up to one mile four and backed from 40-1 to 25-1. Got on then and had as one of my naps this week. Backed down to 11-1 and running all over them when it broke down coming off bend. UNLUCKY.
Then Victors Lady of Robert Cowell, BOBBYS CHARM who he had just sold was favourite for race and this horse 11-1. Why go up for small race at southwell if he didnt know this horse was better than the fav he sold, of course it was and won nicely. The only problem I changed it as my nap in morning cause it went out and other horse i fancied backed from 9-1 to 7-2. Luckily had money on the Lady and she won nicely at 16-1.
As to my nursery trend hoping it will get back in full swing come September and give me nice profits again, At the moment too many horses qualifying, even so I think these can be wittled down further in the months to come. Horses i look to
1. Trainers who did it last year 2. Trainers who need winners to get owners back ie not big boys unless it is one of their smaller owners horses 3. horses who are suddenly running at a diff distance to their 3 novices especially if shown speed at 5f in longer races and now at 5f or opposite ie running on at 5 or 6 f but not too much, going up in deistance. 4.Horses who run 3 times and then suddennly have wind ops or gelding 5 Also especially this summer with the hot weather horses who ran nicely early season and suddenly reappear in nursery on similar ground.
Mick Channon's three winners the other day not huge surprise. He has a lot of soft ground bred two year olds and had loads of winners early on. He continued to race them and handicap marks came down as a result. Soft ground comes at Goodwood and hey ho he coins it in. I was told at the start of season he had gone back to this modus operandi as he was fed up with trying to be like other stables. He knew this was his forte and it looks like it has worked. Got a few of his early birds, just a bit pi ss ed off I didnt see the renaisance coming.
hope this helped but yes go for it but use the report and angle it to your way of working otherwise it wont work for you
Comments
However the nursery one bore dividends last year as it produces winners although sometimes 2 or 3 alternatives and you have to pick the right one. I am starting earlier this year as tonight at Kempton 5.30 three horses were having their fourth race in a nursery and they came first , second and third at 8-1, 7-2 and 8-1, beleive it or not I only did the second and third LOL. So here were the trainers who were on the ball with this last flat season.
WINNING TRAINERS WHO SENT OUT A HORSE TO WIN A NURSERY WITH ITS FOURTH RUN
R.HANNON X 2
R.FAHEY X 2
R. WHITAKER
P KIRBY
D. CARROLL
C.APPLEBY
W. HAGGAS
B. ELLISON
K. MCLINTOCK
D.BROWN X 2
C.COX
M,MEADE
O.BURROWS
MRS A DUFFIELD
M.CHANNON
S,KIRK
M. JOHNSTON X 2
B HASLAM
J FANSHAW
J. OSBOURNE
R.INGHAM
T.COYLE
to add from today 15/8/18
David Loughnihane
Will now do horses that qualify from now on and the P/l for backing them all to £1 unit. Produced handsome £102 pounds profit last year backing all horses who qualified.
2.30 BEVERLEY
PESCI, ABIES HOLLOW, SMART ILLUSION, CARLOW BAY
ALL LOST £4 DOWN
MADDFORMAGGY, ALBAN LADY, NAGGING DOUBT, YFENNI ALL LOST<</b>/b>
CATTERICK 6.40
TRIGGERED WINNER, CABALLERO, PEARL OF QATAR
WINNING TRAINERS WHO SENT OUT A HORSE TO WIN A NURSERY WITH ITS FOURTH RUN
2017
R.HANNON X 2
R.FAHEY X 2
R. WHITAKER
P KIRBY
D. CARROLL
C.APPLEBY
W. HAGGAS
B. ELLISON
K. MCLINTOCK
D.BROWN X 2
C.COX
M,MEADE
O.BURROWS
MRS A DUFFIELD
M.CHANNON
S,KIRK
M. JOHNSTON X 2
B HASLAM
J FANSHAW
J. OSBOURNE
R.INGHAM
T.COYLE
WINNING TRAINERS WHO SENT OUT A HORSE TO WIN A NURSERY WITH ITS FOURTH RUN
2018
D.LOUGHNIHANE
ED WALKER
STAR TERMS WINNER , ROXY ART 2ND
2018
D.LOUGHNIHANE
ED WALKER
R. HANNON
£6.94 DOWN
QUIET WATERS, SABAI SABAI, HAPPY ODYSSEY, BARBARA HEPWORTH, SYMPHONY
ALL LOST
11.94 DOWN
ANONYMOUS BLONDE, JEWEL OF THE SEA, LADY MONA ALL LOST
£14.94 DOWN
4.50 YORK HESSELWOOD, PRAIRIE SKY, INDIAN SOUNDS, RATHBONE, EVIE SPEED ALL LOST
£19.94 DOWN
1.45 FFOS LAS - RIVERWING, LOST
6.25 SALISBURY - SWAN STREET LOST
5.45 CHELMSFORD - RUNNING TIDE , KOMPTON MCKENZIE, SISTERS ACT, MY SUSY, REMISSION ALL LOST
Should have waited until late September to start this, too many horses qualify and the handicapper hasnt got to grips with the others yet
1.20 CHELMSFORD - MUTHHILA LOST
1.55 CHELMSFORD - SPRING TO FREEDOM, STORM SHELTER, FAN NY GRAND, PAIR OF SAVANNAS ALL LOST
2018
D.LOUGHNIHANE
ED WALKER
R. HANNON
M JOHNSTON
£29.54 DOWN and Might have missed a few winners ha ha or a few losers as been too busy with Granddaughter and BLUE MOON recently TO NOTICE WHAT ARE NURSERIES AND WHAT AREN'T.
sTART AGAIN TOMOZ
2.20 LINGFIELD - NO DIGGITY, INOSANTO, BURNING LAKE, KESTON WARRIOR ALL LOST
http://www.attheraces.com/blogs/winning-systems
I am not the best person to follow this as i like to come up with my own trends but it certainly something I bear in mind on a general basis. Also when going through races there are often times when i think why is this horse running in this race, I then look into them further and they often win or get placed at a good price.
This week for example their were two horses I thought why and I was unlucky with both. Firstl Amma Jameela. Raced in Germany under a mile, then bought by jumps trainer Lucy wadham and ran recently at mile. Suddenly up to one mile four and backed from 40-1 to 25-1. Got on then and had as one of my naps this week. Backed down to 11-1 and running all over them when it broke down coming off bend. UNLUCKY.
Then Victors Lady of Robert Cowell, BOBBYS CHARM who he had just sold was favourite for race and this horse 11-1. Why go up for small race at southwell if he didnt know this horse was better than the fav he sold, of course it was and won nicely. The only problem I changed it as my nap in morning cause it went out and other horse i fancied backed from 9-1 to 7-2. Luckily had money on the Lady and she won nicely at 16-1.
As to my nursery trend hoping it will get back in full swing come September and give me nice profits again, At the moment too many horses qualifying, even so I think these can be wittled down further in the months to come. Horses i look to
1. Trainers who did it last year
2. Trainers who need winners to get owners back ie not big boys unless it is one of their smaller owners horses
3. horses who are suddenly running at a diff distance to their 3 novices especially if shown speed at 5f in longer races and now at 5f or opposite ie running on at 5 or 6 f but not too much, going up in deistance.
4.Horses who run 3 times and then suddennly have wind ops or gelding
5 Also especially this summer with the hot weather horses who ran nicely early season and suddenly reappear in nursery on similar ground.
Mick Channon's three winners the other day not huge surprise. He has a lot of soft ground bred two year olds and had loads of winners early on. He continued to race them and handicap marks came down as a result. Soft ground comes at Goodwood and hey ho he coins it in. I was told at the start of season he had gone back to this modus operandi as he was fed up with trying to be like other stables. He knew this was his forte and it looks like it has worked. Got a few of his early birds, just a bit pi ss ed off I didnt see the renaisance coming.
hope this helped but yes go for it but use the report and angle it to your way of working otherwise it wont work for you
Terry
3.40 carlisle - DREAM POET, FLINT HILL WINNER 7-1, ILLUSIONS, ABIES HOLLOW, CAWTHORNE LAD, SINDERELLA
2.20 MUSSELBURGH - ALFRED THE GREY, AGHAST, MELGATE MAJEURE ALL LOST
£34.54 DOWN