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Nursery Form and help with novice events.

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  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,380
    edited October 2017
    1/10/2017

    MUSSELBURGH 2.00 - 1- FRENCH RESISTANCE LOST
    EPSOM 2.10 - 2 - SARSTEDT LOST
    EPSOM 2.40 - 1- BOWDITCH LOST

    3/10/17

    AYR 2.20 - 2- BARNEY GEORGE LOST , BURN SOME DUST WON, CHEF UNITED LOST, RETIREMENT BECKONS LOST
    KEMPTON 6.10 - 2- CITY GENT LOST, LADY DANCELOT LOST, EXPELLED LOST
    KEMPTON 6.40 - 1- KING ATHELSTAN LOST,  SAPPER LOST, COAST GUARD LOST, LADY OF ARAN WON

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  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,380
    edited October 2017
    RESULTS AFTER 14 DAYS

    1-      1-  93 % - 112 LOSERS 9 WINNERS AND 4 SYPHONED OFF in 55 races

    TRAINERS WHO BUCKED THE SYSTEM AND PERHAPS SHOULD BE SYPHONED OFF IF STATS BACK IT UP OVER A PERIOD ARE:-

    R.FAHEY X 2
    M BOTTI
    D COAKLEY
    S.WILLIAMS
    D, BROWN
    T .EASTERBY
    C.FELLOWES

    2 -       9 WINNERS FROM 23 RACES AND THESE FROM 71 HORSES BUT STILL SHOWS A PROFIT IF ALL BACKED TO A £1 STAKE OF £11.75


    WINNING TRAINERS
    R.HANNON X 2
    R.FAHEY
    R. WHITAKER
    P KIRBY
    D. CARROLL
    C.APPLEBY
    W. HAGGAS
    B. ELLISON
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  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,380
    edited October 2017
    4/10/17

    NOTTINGHAM 2.20 - 1- NIGHT AIR LOST
    NOTTINGHAM 2.55 - 1 - BESSIE WARFIELD LOST, ISLE OF AVALON LOST, LA DIVA LOST
    SALISBURY 2.00 - 1 - REGULAR INCOME LOST
    SALISBURY 2.30 - 1 - DANCE EMPEROR LOST
    KEMPTON 6.10  - 1 - GOODBYE LULU LOST, OBRIGADA LOST, SALTY SUGAR LOST
    KEMPTON 6.40 - 1 - GOLDEN DEAL LOST, MODERN LOVE LOST, SERABRINA LOST

    5/10/17
    LINGFIELD 1.50 - 2 - ASHINGTON LOST, BAJAN GOLD LOST
    LINGFIELD 2.25 -1- MASKED DEFENDER LOST
    CHELMSFORD 5.45 - 2 - LONG EMBRACE LOST, ARACHINA LOST, LADY OF PETRA LOST, WOTAMADAM LOST, AVENGING RED LOST, AGENT OF FORTUNE LOST, DISAPPROVAL LOST, SWIFT FOX LOST
    CHELMSFORD 6.15 - 1 - MS TILLY LOST, SPEEDCRAFT LOST
    CHELMSFORD 6.45 - 1 - DEYARRA WON, FALCON EYE LOST, GLOBAL ANGEL LOST, GOING NATIVE LOST
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  • Phantom66Phantom66 Member Posts: 5,542
    edited October 2017
    Interested in your thoughts on the link I just posted on the Naps thread V.

    http://www.drawbias.com/sirestats2.html

    It helped me pick a 33/1 winner in a novice race today (naturally I napped the wrong one though)

    Also found this one, good for spotting trainers who get their horse ready 1st time up and those who improve most on 2nd run.

    I suspect seasoned followers will know the best and worst by reputation but the detail might help with some others.


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  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,380
    edited October 2017
    Phantom,

    The info is really interesting and can only help in getting winners. The problem is getting all the info to add upto a system and profit. The problem is building the system. 

    I had a friend who got his own varying statistics built into a backing system and he was very successful but I have never had the patience to do one too complicated and to a certain extent I am a feelig man. The number of times I really delve into races to  deeply I find the horse I fancied from a quick run through wins. 

    Having said that I have lost my touch recently especially with the naps.

    I think at the end of the day you have to have a system for all the different types of races. Thats why I am doing this.

    At the mo it is showing my stats can produce a profit for nurseries and if I can find some way of narrowing down the numberof runners to back and get a higher proportion of winners to runners it will be very good. 

    With novice events It also looking very good especially if I can weed out the trainers who buck the trend. Of course all that tells me is the horses unlikely to win the novice event. 

    THAT IS WHERE YOUR INFO comes into play. So if we throw out horses having their 3rd run for trainers/owners who shall we say are not super rich. We are left with first time outers and horses having their 2nd run. We then use your info and we should be able to narrow down to very few horses with the right profile and get plenty of winners.HOPEFULLY

    a PROJECT FOR NEXT SEASON PERHAPS  
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  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,380
    edited October 2017
    Chucking a little money on my stats. watch the others win!!!!

    Long Embrace @ 4/1
    Arachina @ 16/1
    Ashington @ 7/1
    Bajan Gold @ 15/2
    Doubles, 4 bets * £0.50  E/W
    		04/10/2017 21:43:024.000.00
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  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,380
    edited October 2017
    AFTER 16 DAYS

    RESULTS AFTER 14 DAYS

    1-      1-  94 % - 130 LOSERS 9 WINNERS AND 5 SYPHONED OFF in 64 races

    TRAINERS WHO BUCKED THE SYSTEM AND PERHAPS SHOULD BE SYPHONED OFF IF STATS BACK IT UP OVER A PERIOD ARE:-

    R.FAHEY X 2
    M BOTTI
    D COAKLEY
    S.WILLIAMS
    D, BROWN
    T .EASTERBY
    C.FELLOWES

    2 -       9 WINNERS FROM 25 RACES AND THESE FROM 81 HORSES BUT STILL SHOWS A PROFIT IF ALL BACKED TO A £1 STAKE OF £1.75


    WINNING TRAINERS
    R.HANNON X 2
    R.FAHEY
    R. WHITAKER
    P KIRBY
    D. CARROLL
    C.APPLEBY
    W. HAGGAS
    B. ELLISON
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  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,380
    edited October 2017
    6/10/17

    CHELMSFORD 5.45 - 1- ROOD GARDEN LOST
    CHELMSFORD 6.45 - 1 - ZAAJER, LOST TOPAPINION LOST, ELSAAKB LOST, BARIG AL THIMANIA LOST

    7/10/17

    NEWMARKET 1.30 - 1- ECHO COVE LOST, ATHENIA LOST
    NEWMARKET 3.15 - 1- SOLDIERS BAY LOST
    REDCAR 1.40 - 1- EEH BAH GUM LOST, HOW BIZARRE LOST, MISS WOLVERINE LOST
    REDCAR 2.10 - 1- BERTOG LOST, GLEAMING SUN LOST, THE CLIFF HORSE LOST
    WOLVERHAMPTON 7.15 - 2 - THE NIGHT KING LOST, AFFLUENCE LOST, AMAZING ROCK LOST, THE FETTLER LOST
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  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,380
    edited October 2017


    RESULTS AFTER 18 DAYS

    1-      1-  94% - 144 LOSERS 9 WINNERS AND 5 SYPHONED OFF in 70 races

    TRAINERS WHO BUCKED THE SYSTEM AND PERHAPS SHOULD BE SYPHONED OFF IF STATS BACK IT UP OVER A PERIOD ARE:-

    R.FAHEY X 2
    M BOTTI
    D COAKLEY
    S.WILLIAMS
    D, BROWN
    T .EASTERBY
    C.FELLOWES

    2 -       9 WINNERS FROM 26 RACES AND THESE FROM 85 HORSES AND BUT SHOWS A LOSS IF ALL BACKED TO A £1 STAKE OF £2.25


    WINNING TRAINERS
    R.HANNON X 2
    R.FAHEY
    R. WHITAKER
    P KIRBY
    D. CARROLL
    C.APPLEBY
    W. HAGGAS
    B. ELLISON
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  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,380
    edited October 2017
    9/10/17

    WINDSOR 2.15 - 2 - SHERERAZADA LOST, BERKSHIRE ROYAL LOST
    WINDSOR 3.15 -1- DELSHEER WON
    PONTEFRACT 2.25 - 2 -BIG LES WON 6-1, FINNION FOX LOST
    SALISBURY 2.05 - 1 - BEYOND EQUAL LOST
    SALISBURY 2.35 - 1 - BE MINDFUL  LOST, GIFT OF HERA  LOST
    MUSSELBURGH - 1 - CANADIAN GEORGE LOST, SOUTHPARK LOST
    KEMPTON 4.55 - 1 - FREE TALKIN LOST, LAYTOWN LOST
    KEMPTON 5.25 - 1 - BAKHT KHAN LOST, GO ROO LOST, SERGIO LEONE WON
    KEMPTON 5.55 - 1 - ARIGATO LOST, BUFFER ZONE WON, PERFECT HUSTLER LOST

    10/10/17

    CATTERICK 1.30 - 1 -PACO ESCOSTAR LOST, SWISS CHOCOLATE LOST
    CATTERICK 2.00 - 2  FORTUNATE VISION WON 14-1, FOREST DRAGON LOST, ZIZUM 2ND, GORSE 3RD, BEN MY CHEREE LOST, PETER LEONARD LOST
    BRIGHTON 2.45 - 1 - GAS MONKEY LOST , MIRROR MAGIC LOST, RUPERTS LASS LOST
    BRIGHTON 3.15 - 2 - LADY GODIVA LOST, WARSAAN LOST
    BRIGHTON 3,45 -  1 - BAASHA LOST, BLOORIEDOTCOM LOST, WESTBROOKE BERTIE LOST
    NEWCASTLE 6.25 - 1 - HAVANA MARIPOSA LOST
    NEWCASTLE 6.55 - 2 - FIRBY LOST, ARCTIC TREASURE LOST, MECCA SPIRIT LOST



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  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,380
    edited October 2017
    AFTER 2O DAYS

    1-      1-  94% - 164 LOSERS 10 WINNERS AND 7 SYPHONED OFF in 81 races

    TRAINERS WHO BUCKED THE SYSTEM AND PERHAPS SHOULD BE SYPHONED OFF IF STATS BACK IT UP OVER A PERIOD ARE:-

    R.FAHEY X 2
    M BOTTI
    D COAKLEY
    S.WILLIAMS
    D, BROWN
    T .EASTERBY
    C.FELLOWES

    2 -       11 WINNERS FROM 31 RACES AND THESE FROM 101 HORSES AND  SHOWS A PROFIT IF ALL BACKED TO A £1 STAKE OF £3.75. EVEN BETTER PROFIT IF ONLY BETTING ON BOLD HORSES WHEN MORE THEN ONE RUNNER QUALIFIES


    WINNING TRAINERS
    R.HANNON X 2
    R.FAHEY
    R. WHITAKER
    P KIRBY
    D. CARROLL
    C.APPLEBY
    W. HAGGAS
    B. ELLISON
    K. MCLINTOCK
    D.BROWN
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  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,380
    edited October 2017
    11/10/17

    NOTTINGHAM 1.45  -1 - FLERE IMSAHO LOST, KYLIE STYLE LOST
    NOTTINGHAM 2.15 - 2 - KICK ON KICK ON WON 9-4, WEAR IT WELL LOST
    NOTTINGHAM 2.50 - 1 - DANCETERIA  LOST  , NELSON RIVER LOST, SAM GOLD LOST
    NOTTINGHAM 3.20 - 2 - BAILEYS EXCELERATE LOST, ADAMS PARK LOST, SHIP OF THE FEN WON 15-8
    KEMPTON 5.55 - 1 - DRACARYS LOST, MATCHMAKING LOST

    12/10/17
    CHELMSFORD 5.45  - 1- LITTLE POEM LOST
    CHELMSFORD 6.15 - 1 - ANGELS WHISPER LOST, IMAGE LOST, ROCK ON BAILEYS LOST
    CHELMSFORD 6.45 -1 - RUA AUGUSTA LOST

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  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,380
    edited October 2017
    AFTER 22 DAYS

    1-      1-  95% - 176 LOSERS 10 WINNERS AND 7 SYPHONED OFF in 87 races

    TRAINERS WHO BUCKED THE SYSTEM AND PERHAPS SHOULD BE SYPHONED OFF IF STATS BACK IT UP OVER A PERIOD ARE:-

    R.FAHEY X 2
    M BOTTI
    D COAKLEY
    S.WILLIAMS
    D, BROWN
    T .EASTERBY
    C.FELLOWES

    2 -       13 WINNERS FROM 33 RACES AND THESE FROM 106 HORSES AND  SHOWS A PROFIT IF ALL BACKED TO A £1 STAKE OF £4.88. 


    WINNING TRAINERS
    R.HANNON X 2
    R.FAHEY
    R. WHITAKER
    P KIRBY
    D. CARROLL
    C.APPLEBY
    W. HAGGAS
    B. ELLISON
    K. MCLINTOCK
    D.BROWN
    C.COX
    M,MEADE

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  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,380
    edited October 2017
    13/10/17

    NEWMARKET 4.45 - 1 - WILD IMPALA LOST
    YORK 2.10 - 2 - BLACK FRIDAY LOST, CANFORDS JOY LOST, CAPTAIN JAMESON 3RD, KYLACCHY DRAGON 2ND
    YORK 3.20  - 1 - GULLANE ONE LOST, MILITIA LOST, CATHIES DREAM LOST
    YORK 5.05 - 1 - JOE CABLE LOST, HYANNA LOST, SO NEAR SO FARHH LOST
    KEMPTON 6.45 - 1 - CAVATINA WON, GRACES SECRET LOST, SCANDALEUSE LOST
    KEMPTON 7.15 - 2- HARBOUR SEAL LOST, KALACHEE LOST, SECRETARIO LOST
    KEMPTON 7.45 - 1- CASIMA LOST, GATHER LOST, MELODIES LOST

    14/10/17
    NEWMARET 4.15 - 2 - PRESTBURY PARK LOST, CHRACTER WITNESS LOST
    YORK 3.50 - 2 - BUCKSTOPPER KIT LOST
    YORK 4.25 - 1 - AGARS PLOUGH LOST, SEMPRE PRESTO LOST,
    KEMPTON 5.45 - 2 - POPPY JAG LOST
    KEMPTON 6.15 -  1 - BALLETOMANE LOST, LITTLELORDCONFORD LOST, PRIME CHIEF LOST, GOWING GOWING GONE LOST
    KEMPTON 6.45 - 1 - BLACKWOOD LOST, NUITS ST GEORGE LOST, UNIVERSAL COMMAND LOST
    KEMPTON 7.15 - 1 - LOSINGMYRELIGION LOST
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  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,380
    edited October 2017
    AFTER 24 DAYS

    1-      1-  95% - 185 LOSERS 10 WINNERS AND 7 SYPHONED OFF in 90 races

    TRAINERS WHO BUCKED THE SYSTEM AND PERHAPS SHOULD BE SYPHONED OFF IF STATS BACK IT UP OVER A PERIOD ARE:-

    R.FAHEY X 2
    M BOTTI
    D COAKLEY
    S.WILLIAMS
    D, BROWN
    T .EASTERBY
    C.FELLOWES

    2 -       13 WINNERS FROM 36 RACES AND THESE FROM 110 HORSES AND  SHOWS A PROFIT IF ALL BACKED TO A £1 STAKE OF £0.88. 


    WINNING TRAINERS
    R.HANNON X 2
    R.FAHEY
    R. WHITAKER
    P KIRBY
    D. CARROLL
    C.APPLEBY
    W. HAGGAS
    B. ELLISON
    K. MCLINTOCK
    D.BROWN
    C.COX
    M,MEADE
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  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,380
    edited October 2017
    15/10/17

    GOODWOOD 2.35 - 1 - SECTION ONESIXSIX LOST
    GOODWOOD 3.10 - 2 - OCEAN SIDE LOST
    GOODWOOD 3.45 - 1 - ISTANBUL SULTAN WON

    16/10/17
    YARMOUTH 2.10 - 1 - CONVERSANT LOST, TIMOSHENKO LOST
    YARMOUTH 2.40 - 2- DIVINE INTUITION LOST, QUICK BREATH LOST, MUTAFARRID WON 9-2, GEMBARI LOST, MANDARIN PRINCESS LOST
    MUSSELBROUGH 1.50 - 1 - ACE OF SPADED LOST, EVA DOCC LOST
    WINDSOR 2.00 - 2 - LA BELLE MAYSON LOST
    WINDSOR 3.00 - 1 - APPENZELLER LOST, GLOBAL TANGO LOST, KINGFAST LOST, ROSEDALE TOPPING LOST, SPIRIT OF ISHY LOST
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  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,380
    edited October 2017
    AFTER 26 DAYS

    1-      1-  95% - 195 LOSERS 11 WINNERS AND 7 SYPHONED OFF in 90 races


    TRAINERS WHO BUCKED THE SYSTEM AND PERHAPS SHOULD BE SYPHONED OFF IF STATS BACK IT UP OVER A PERIOD ARE:-

    R.FAHEY X 2
    M BOTTI
    D COAKLEY
    S.WILLIAMS
    D, BROWN
    T .EASTERBY
    C.FELLOWES
    W. HAGGAS


    2 -       14 WINNERS FROM 39 RACES AND THESE FROM 117 HORSES AND  SHOWS A LOSS  IF ALL HORSES BACKED TO A £1 STAKE OF £0.62. 


    WINNING TRAINERS
    R.HANNON X 2
    R.FAHEY
    R. WHITAKER
    P KIRBY
    D. CARROLL
    C.APPLEBY
    W. HAGGAS
    B. ELLISON
    K. MCLINTOCK
    D.BROWN
    C.COX
    M,MEADE
    O.BURROWS
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  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,380
    edited October 2017
    17/10/17

    LEICESTER 2.00 - 1- BOLD REASON  LOST, WHITEHALL LOST
    LEICESTER 4.30 - 2 -,PEARLS CALLING LOST
    KEMPTON 6.15  - 1 - ALBA DEL SOLE LOST, CRYSTAL CASQUE LOST, GUNS DRAWN WON
    KEMPTON 6.45 - 2 - DREAM MALFUNCTION LOST, STRAIGHT ASH LOST, LITTLE MISS LILLY LOST, BODIE AND DOYLE LOST

    18/10/17
    NOTTINGHAM 1.30 - 1 - BAGHDAD LOST, GHAZAN LOST, PIPPIN LOST
    NTTINGHAM 2.00 - 1 - BOKO FITTLEWORTH LOST, FRENCH KISS LOST
    NOTTINGHAM 2.30 - 1 - HIDDEN DREAM LOST, NAQAAWA LOST, RED MIRACLE LOST, SHEIKA REIKA LOST
    NOTTINGHAM 3.05 - 2 - ONE FOOT IN FRONT LOST, PELICE LOST, FRENCH RESISTANCE LOST
    LINGFIELD 1.50 - 2 - GOING NATIVE 4TH,, COAST GUARD LOST, SUPERSYMETRY LOST, NOT AFTER MIDNIGHT 2ND 33-1
    LINGFIELD 2.20 - 1 - KANDY KOVE LOST
    LINGFIELD 2.55 - 1 - SEE THE TAR LOST
    KEMPTON 5.45 - 2 - MOSSKETEER LOST, DEVIL OR ANGEL LOST, MAGIC PULSE LOST
    KEMPTON 6.45 - 1 - ALACRITAS LOST, FILLE DE REVE WON, HAPPY ENDING LOST
    KEMPTON 7.15  - 1 - ADMIRED LOST
    KEMPTON 7.45 - 1 - ARCHIE MCKELLAR WON, CARPKID LOST, DONT CRY ABOUT IT LOST, GREY SPIRIT LOST


    ON THE NIGHT YOU DONT WANT HORSES TO BREAK THE TREND TWO DO !!!!
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  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,380
    edited October 2017
    AFTER 28 DAYS

    1-      1-  94% - 217 LOSERS 13 WINNERS AND 7 SYPHONED OFF in 100 races


    TRAINERS WHO BUCKED THE SYSTEM AND PERHAPS SHOULD BE SYPHONED OFF IF STATS BACK IT UP OVER A PERIOD ARE:-

    R.FAHEY X 2
    M BOTTI
    D COAKLEY
    S.WILLIAMS
    D, BROWN
    T .EASTERBY
    C.FELLOWES
    W. HAGGAS
    E. WALKER
    R. BECKETT

    2 -       14 WINNERS FROM 44 RACES AND THESE FROM 132 HORSES AND  SHOWS A LOSS  IF ALL HORSES BACKED TO A £1 STAKE OF £15.62. 


    WINNING TRAINERS
    R.HANNON X 2
    R.FAHEY
    R. WHITAKER
    P KIRBY
    D. CARROLL
    C.APPLEBY
    W. HAGGAS
    B. ELLISON
    K. MCLINTOCK
    D.BROWN
    C.COX
    M,MEADE
    O.BURROWS
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  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,380
    edited October 2017
    19/10/17

    BRIGHTON 2.00 - 1 - MR GENT LOST, MISS RECYCLED LOST, ROTHERHITHE LOST
    BRIGHTON 2.30 - 1 - KING OF THE SAND WON, THE FIDDLER LOST
    NEWCASTLE 6.15 1 - MY ROCK LOST
    NEWCASTLE 6.45 - 2 - ISABELLA RUBY LOST, 
    NEWCASTLE 7.15 - 2 - AVON GREEN LOST, ARTY BUT POOR LOST, CUPPACOCO WON 33-1

    20/10/17
    REDCAR 1.30  - 1 - NICKLAUS WON, WATCHING SPIRITS LOST, SHAKIAH LOST, ENROLMENT LOST
    REDCAR 2.00 - 1 - FABELLA BERE LOST
    REDCAR 3.10 - 1 - POWER SAIL LOST
    NWCASTLE 6.45 - 1 - DUTCH ACADEMY LOST, BAILEYS ROCKSTAR LOST, BLYTON LASS LOST, LINE HOUSE WON
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