Q1) Is there at least a £10K rollover? A1) Hmm, yes rollover of £310K Q2) Is there a decent odds/on "banker/semi-banker?" A2) NO real banker as such and no odds on shot Q3) Are there at least three races where the favourite is 2/1 or less? A3) There are two races (2nd and 3rd) where the favourite is 2/1 or less, although this could go to 3 races if something is backed in races 4 or 6.
Q4) Is there no more than one race where the favourite is 5/1 or bigger? A4) No race is bigger than 5/1 the field, although there are two quite competitive races (Races 1 and 5) where the favourite is currently 4/1
Q5) Is the "type/quality" of racing unlikely to throw up a Jackpot busting outsider? A5) Possibly being a specialists course and Soft ground conditions.
Q6) Is a reasonable dividend likely if we are successful? A6) Looking at the card and pool, I would say assuming a mixed set of results, some favourites, some medium prices that an average dividend would be about £15K. Obviously much more if two or more big outsiders win, but if that happens we'd likely bust anyway.
So it's not a slam/dunk by any means, but not too far off the criteria, we'd probably have to have 3 or 4 semi-bankers rather than rely on one banker.
I would guess our chance of success is as follows:
Staking £500, approx 15% (Estimated mean average return £8K) Staking £750, approx 18% (Estimated mean average return £10K) Staking £1,000, approx 20% (Estimated mean average return £12K)
So still up to you guys, all the above scenarios look +EV to me, but I must stress that we will lose way more often than we win.
(The mean average return goes up as the increase in perms/coverage means a slightly greater possibility of multiple line wins and/or catching a higher dividend.)
Hi guys. I was hoping I wouldn't be doing this so soon, but here's the details for the petty cash balance.
On Sat 26/08/18 at GOODWOOD we collected £460.00 and staked £508.00 for which we get £50.80 cash back so a net stake of £457.20 so £2.80 added to petty cash
On Sun 27/08/18 at SOUTHWELL (AW) we collected £420.00 and staked £465.00 - £46.50 cash back, so a net stake of £418.50 so £1.50 added to petty cash.
The petty cash prior to these two days was £3.20 so now stands at £7.50
Screen shots of the betting and banking transactions have been sent to auditors Dollie and Snuffer.
Comments
Q1) Is there at least a £10K rollover?
A1) Hmm, yes rollover of £310K
Q2) Is there a decent odds/on "banker/semi-banker?"
A2) NO real banker as such and no odds on shot
Q3) Are there at least three races where the favourite is 2/1 or less?
A3) There are two races (2nd and 3rd) where the favourite is 2/1 or less, although this could go to 3 races if something is backed in races 4 or 6.
Q4) Is there no more than one race where the favourite is 5/1 or bigger?
A4) No race is bigger than 5/1 the field, although there are two quite competitive races (Races 1 and 5) where the favourite is currently 4/1
Q5) Is the "type/quality" of racing unlikely to throw up a Jackpot busting outsider?
A5) Possibly being a specialists course and Soft ground conditions.
Q6) Is a reasonable dividend likely if we are successful?
A6) Looking at the card and pool, I would say assuming a mixed set of results, some favourites, some medium prices that an average dividend would be about £15K. Obviously much more if two or more big outsiders win, but if that happens we'd likely bust anyway.
So it's not a slam/dunk by any means, but not too far off the criteria, we'd probably have to have 3 or 4 semi-bankers rather than rely on one banker.
I would guess our chance of success is as follows:
Staking £500, approx 15% (Estimated mean average return £8K)
Staking £750, approx 18% (Estimated mean average return £10K)
Staking £1,000, approx 20% (Estimated mean average return £12K)
So still up to you guys, all the above scenarios look +EV to me, but I must stress that we will lose way more often than we win.
(The mean average return goes up as the increase in perms/coverage means a slightly greater possibility of multiple line wins and/or catching a higher dividend.)
So it's a GO. Please make payments this evening is possible, final deadline, 11.50AM tomorrow.