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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rdon4PQX3Xc
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Alan Johnson : ‘Two thirds of British jobs in manufacturing are dependent on demand from Europe’ ....The figure used by Mr Johnson compared the total number of manufacturing jobs, 2.55 million, with the 1.7 million jobs the CEBR had said were dependent on EU trade.
However, the two figures were not comparable and more recent analysis shows that the figure is more likely to be closer to 15 per cent.
Michael Gove : 'Turkey is going to join the EU and millions of people will flock to the UK' Though Turkey has been an official EU candidate state since 1999, talks have long stalled and there is no prospect of the country joining the bloc anytime soon. During the campaign Michael Gove claimed that Turkey and four other countries could join the EU and claimed it was possible this could happen within four years.
The claim was used to argue for stricter immigration laws, as forecasts suggested new countries joining the EU could lead to 5.2 million extra people moving to the UK.
Two years later Mr Gove admitted that fears of Turkish immigration should not have been exploited and said if it was up to him the campaign “would have [had] a slightly different feel”
Daniel Hannan : 'Brexit does not mean the UK will leave the single market Daniel Hannan, the Tory MEP who is often described as the “godfather of Brexit” repeatedly assured voters that Britain would not leave the single market if they voted to leave the EU.
“Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the single market,” he said.
The idea of an EU army was a dangerous fantasyThroughout the referendum campaign, Remainers claimed similarly that an EU army was a figment of the Leave side’s imagination. However since the referendum, this has been proven to be false. In November 2018, the French and German leaders Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron joined politicians like Jean-Claude Juncker and Guy Verhofstadt in calling for an EU wide army.
During the referendum campaign, Remainer economists from the Bank of England to the IMF, warned that a mere vote to leave would severely impact the UK’s economy.
In May 2016, HM Trasury released an economic analysis titled: “HM Treasury Analysis: the immediate economic impact of leaving the EU”. The report made some catastrophic predictions of what would happen to the UK economy should a leave vote be returned (note: this is purely based on a vote to leave being returned, not on the UK actually leaving the EU).
What has really happened? Between June 2016 and 2018, for many metrics ONS figures demonstrate the opposite to what was predicted. GDP has risen 3.2%, not fallen. Unemployment has also fallen by 260,000 (a change in the unemployment rate of -0.8%), as opposed to rising. Average real wages have risen by +0.8%, and house prices have risen by 3.5%. The Treasury called the direction of only two metrics correctly, but still with a large amount of error – the CPI inflation rate is now at +2.4, and the Sterling rate exchange index is around -7%
In June 2016, George Osborne and his predecessor Alistair Darling shared a platform and said that a vote to leave would leave a “£30bn black hole” in the UK’s public finances, requiring an “emergency budget” where public services would be slashed and taxes would be raised.
Osborne predicted that the basic rate of income tax would rise by 2%, the higher rate would rise by 3%, and police, transport and local governments would see their spending cut by 5%, with education, the NHS and defence also seeing “slashed” budgets.
As we know, a vote to Leave was delivered, and none of this happened
In April 2016, the then United States President Barack Obama visited London and made dire warnings to the Leave campaign following the United States’ intentions regarding a future free trade deal.This turned out to be one of the biggest lies in the campaign. It later emerged that the reason Obama made these comments was not because of his personal belief, but because David Cameron requested him to, in order to try and discredit the Leave campaign.
This lie was further debunked in January 2018, when US Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin said that the UK was “at the front of the queue” when the UK was ready to start negotiations. This was followed by congressman George Holding repeating the same thing in June 2018.
If the “£350m per week” slogan on the bus was misleading, then Osborne’s claim that households would be £4,300 worse off if they voted to leave the EU was far worse.
To get this figure, HM Treasury forecast that in 2030 the UK economy would be 6% smaller if we voted to leave, compared to if we voted to Remain (37% growth if we Remain, compared to 30% growth if we leave). They then divided this 6% of UK GDP by the number of households in Britain to obtain £4,300 per household.
This was incredibly misleading, and ultimately a lie. Firstly, GDP growth is not the same thing as household spending. A rise in GDP does not necessarily mean all households have more spending power.
Secondly, although the wording sounded like people would be worse off, in reality the forecast stated that people would be better off – it would just be by 6% less compared to if a Remain vote was returned. This figure was also seen as overly pessimistic (studies for The Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics put the figure at 1.3 – 2.6%. A report by Open Britain even claimed the UK could be better off by 1.3%, mainly by cutting EU red tape. This was all ignored in the Treasury’s campaigning to the public.
Contrary to what Remainers constantly say about the Leave campaign misleading the people, it is clear that the Remain campaign lied just as much, if not far more. Fortunately, the wisdom of the British people prevailed, and they saw through most of the lies to vote for Brexit in numbers never before seen in a nationwide election
In early 2016, Cameron negotiated with the EU for a “new deal for Britain”, which he could then sell to the public to persuade them to vote Remain. Information about this new deal was publicised in a controversial leaflet that went to every household in the country
The leaflet claimed that Cameron’s negotiation had secured a “special status” for the UK, when in reality, it had not. Several points were already in the European treaties, so were not a result of Cameron’s renegotiation, and most importantly nothing the EU had assured Cameron was legally binding. Also, absolutely none of what was claimed was exclusive to the UK, as the “special status” inferred.
The George Osborne forecasts were a massive mistake, as they have allowed the Brexiteers to point to the fact that they were incorrect, and write off every disadvantage that we will encounter through leaving as project fear. Also, I am unsure whether these forecasts were designed to mislead, or genuine projections that were just incorrect.
The project fear response seems standard for every difficulty, and logical argument seems to have fallen by the wayside.
Many things that occurred during the referendum are disappointing.
David Cameron, and George Osborne have disappeared from politics, but some of the biggest liars have survived unscathed. Boris Johnson, and Michael Gove were given cabinet positions. Many of them continue with their lies.
Why weren't they stopped from using the famous bus?
The figure was double the actual amount paid to the EU. They had no right to say it would be spent on the NHS. There wont be a Brexit dividend in this Parliament, and probably never will be. Yet they continued to use the bus throughout the campaign.
The major lies that the Leave side focused on, were a massive amount of funding to the NHS instead of the EU, and the UK being invaded by 17 million Turks. This proved much more effective than a couple of dodgy forecasts.
The Leave campaign proved much more effective than the Remain campaign. The Leave campaign put 1 billion ads in front of targeted voters. That many ads may well have convinced voters that we were about to be invaded, as immigration was a hot topic, and the NHS is a hugely popular institution.
There was also the Russian intervention. It is impossible to estimate what effect this might have had. Russia will be very happy about us leaving the EU.
The data companies used were introduced to the Leave campaign, by Trumps largest contributor, and many people have pointed to the similarities between the campaigns.
The strange thing about the referendum is that it has been proved that the Leave campaign broke the law, they have been fined for a number of things, and a criminal investigation is underway. Yet there seems to be no further action planned. If the only redress for an illegal political campaign, is a couple of fines, it would not seem a discouragement from doing so.
As we get closer to the deadline we seem to be getting an increase in bad news. I think that if George Osborne had confined his forecasts to the effects of us leaving, as opposed to the effect of the vote, he would have appeared much more credible.
I think the Remain campaign completely failed to focus on the concerns of the electorate.
On a personal basis, I couldn't see any advantages of leaving, and nothing that has happened since has changed my mind.
I am glad I voted.
If I hadn't, I might have felt that I hadn't done my bit to avoid the chaos of leaving.
Writing in his weekly Telegraph column in February of 2016, Boris Johnson resurrected a phrase that had first been coined during the Scottish independence referendum two years earlier – “Project Fear”.
The Tory MP said the Remain campaign was attempting to “spook” the public into believing “Brexit is simply too scary”. These warnings, he said, were “so wildly exaggerated as to be nonsense”.
Brexit will make you poorer? PROJECT FEAR. House prices will drop? PROJECT FEAR. Thousands of job losses? Nah mate, it’s just PROJECT FEAR – there’s a “world of opportunity” out there.
By April of last year, fellow Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg declared that Project Fear was all but dead, buried and forgotten.
But on Sunday Nissan said it had told staff in Sunderland that it will cancel plans to build its new X-Trail SUV at the plant there, citing Brexit as one of the factors in the decision.
And on Monday, the health secretary was forced to say the government could have to soon prioritise medicines over food. And this came just 24 hours after he said the government considered plans to declare martial law to calm any disorder in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
With just 55 days to go and a no-deal scenario looking ever more likely, dire Brexit headlines are still appearing, only this time they’re not all warnings – some of them are actually happening.
Here’s the current state of play, as we check ‘Project Fear’’s main projections against our new reality in 2019.
‘House prices will plummet’
In May 2016, then-chancellor George Osborne warned leaving the EU could cause a drop in house prices of 18% – it didn’t materialise and 11 months later, Nigel Farage was crowing as prices continued to rise.
But Farage may have spoken a little too soon – house prices have yet to plummet but figures released on Thursday suggest potential buyers and sellers are “sitting on their hands” while they wait and see what happens with Brexit.
A house price freeze set in during January, with property values showing near-zero growth compared with a year ago.
Two years earlier, in January 2017, annual house price growth was running as high as 4.3%.
‘You’ll not be able to go on holiday’
In May 2016, the Daily Mail blasted David Cameron after he warned Brexit would drive up holiday costs.
The then-PM had said: “If we were to leave and the pound were to fall, which is what most people expect and the Treasury forecasts, that would put up the cost of a typical holiday for a family of four to a European destination by £230.”
The pound did fall in the wake of the referendum and has yet to recover. Before the vote £1 got you around €1.32 but for the last year or so it’s been hovering around the €1.14 mark.
So holidays already are more expensive, proving Cameron right, but the effects of a no-deal Brexit are hard to predict.
‘We’ll run out of medicine’
As recently as the beginning of this month, Rees-Mogg was certain that any fears the UK could run out of medicines were unfounded.
Speaking on LBC, he said: “We are in control of how things come into this country... This is not particularly complicated.”
But just days later, community pharmacists were saying the uncertainty over no-deal Brexit is already having an impact on their business as issues with supplies are forcing up the price of key medicines.
The lack of political clarity over the UK leaving the EU with or without a deal in six weeks time has left many smaller chemists struggling to plan for the future, with one telling HuffPost UK: “It’s one of the worst times in the industry I’ve ever known.”
Pharmacist Ash Kumar, who works in Maidenhead, said he was already struggling to get hold of some drugs and he had started to stockpile certain key medicines in case they can’t get hold of them in the future.
He said: “Brexit has affected us, most of our suppliers are from the EU and availability is already scarce with prices going up.
“We are a business at the end of the day and we’re paying out of our own pocket to ensure people get what they need. In some cases we are paying three of four times more for prescriptions than we are being reimbursed by the NHS.”
Even more worrying, it was reported on Thursday by the Guardian that emergency “trauma packs”, the kind used during terrorist attacks, are being stockpiled by the pharmaceutical giant Johnson & Johnson.
‘The banks will leave London’
Warning of a possible exodus of Britain’s banks from London, British Bankers’ Association, Anthony Browne, said in October 2016: “Their hands are quivering over the relocate button.”
The banks are for the most part still in the UK but on Thursday it was announced Barclays has been given the green light to transfer 190 billion euros (£160bn) worth of assets to Ireland.
The banking giant received approval from the High Court on Wednesday for the move, which involves 5,000 clients.
It comes as the company ramps up its Brexit contingency planning.
“As we announced in 2017, Barclays will use our existing licensed EU-based bank subsidiary to continue to serve our clients within the EU beyond March 29 2019 regardless of the outcome of Brexit,” the bank said.
“Our preparations are well-advanced and we expect to be fully operational by March 29 2019.”
The move is designed to deal with the consequences of a no-deal hard Brexit, in which UK based banks would lose “passporting” rights that allow them to function in the EU’s single market, the world’s richest trading bloc.
‘Thousands of jobs will be lost’
Bank of England governor Mark Carney swiftly became the arch-nemesis of Brexiteers as he issued a string of warnings over the possible consequences of leaving the EU, including recession, a plunging pound and severe job losses.
Rees-Mogg even dubbed him the “high priest of Project Fear”.
Firstly, it’s worth bearing in mind that Brexit hasn’t actually happened yet so it’s still too early judge the full economic effects, but one area in particular is showing signs of strain.
The automotive industry is a vital part of the UK economy, supporting over one million jobs and in a worrying sign of the ongoing uncertainty over Brexit, it was announced on Thursday that investment by car companies halved in 2018 to £588 million.
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said investment had effectively “stalled” amid fears over the UK’s future trading prospects with the EU.
Just over 1.5 million cars left UK factories in 2018, a 9.1% decline on the previous year, and the lowest for six years.
Honda and Jaguar Land Rover have already announced they will pause manufacturing in April and the former recently announced it is to cut 4,500 jobs under plans to make £2.5bn of cost savings.
And Aerospace giant Airbus could slash thousands of UK jobs and move wing-building operations out of the country in the event of a no-deal Brexit, its CEO has warned.
But elsewhere in the motoring world there was positive news – the boss of Rolls-Royce Motor Cars said the brand belongs to Britain and will not move manufacturing elsewhere after Brexit.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/no-deal-project-fear-told-072624461.html
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Brexit Latest: No deal rated likelier than ever
Yesterday's parliamentary drama made Brexit and specifically leaving without a deal, likelier than ever according to Betfair markets. Paul Krishnamurty updates the latest developments...
https://betting.betfair.com/politics/brexit/latest-brexit-odds-betting-and-analysis-no-deal-ever-likelier-300119-171.html
Why do you post any newspaper articles then?
Or are you saying that you post the ones you like, and question the motives, and veracity of the ones you don't like, and disagree with your views?
That would be silly.
A more likely explanation was that the article was true at the time, and the market has now changed.
The increase in popularity as far as the general public is concerned is irrelevant to the betting markets, as the outcome is currently in the hands of our politicians.