I have not checked it, would take me too long, but a pro punter pal of mine, & Bookie-Hater (most pros are, obv), told me that the Grand National book was 163%.
To be fair, they do make a lop-sided book due to the place market & so many Firms offering 5/6/7 places.
I have not checked it, would take me too long, but a pro punter pal of mine, & Bookie-Hater (most pros are, obv), told me that the Grand National book was 163%.
To be fair, they do make a lop-sided book due to the place market & so many Firms offering 5/6/7 places.
I'm not surprised - I had the exchanges open most of the day & some of the bookies' prices were dire. The SPs are almost always even worse again.
I know I'm probs preaching to the converted here, but the Grand National is always such a weird market because of how badly the EW place odds reflect the actual likelihood of a horse placing in that race. The prices on the EW part of bets are so far off, it's absurd.
Tiger Roll was 7/2 - So he would've been odds on (7/8) to place top 4. Most of the bookies giving extra places were also 1/5 place odds. There's very few horses that should even be odds on to finish the race, never mind odds on to place!
The exchanges had him around 3.5 (or 5/2) to finish in the top 4 from memory, which seems more reasonable. I'm sure everyone who bet on Tiger Roll, Rathvinden or any of the top 10 or so horses in the market EW received a juicy 'free bet if you reload' offer from the bookies sometime this afternoon.
Then all of the outsiders are the total opposite end of the scale where if you take the best price available, it's probably going to be +EV to back that horse each way. There's definitely an argument for just blindly sticking a fiver EW on every horse above maybe 80/1 or so on Saturday morning.
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I don't have any issue with those. Anyone else got a view?
Here's a good example, these are tonight's odds for Chelsea v West Ham;
Chelsea Not to Score 9/1
Chelsea Exactly 1 10/3
Chelsea Exactly 2 5/2
Chelsea Exactly 3 3/1
Chelsea 4 or More 11/4
West Ham Not to Score 10/11
West Ham Exactly 1 6/4
West Ham Exactly 2 11/2
West Ham Exactly 3 28/1
West Ham 4 or More 125/1
I have not checked it, would take me too long, but a pro punter pal of mine, & Bookie-Hater (most pros are, obv), told me that the Grand National book was 163%.
To be fair, they do make a lop-sided book due to the place market & so many Firms offering 5/6/7 places.
I know I'm probs preaching to the converted here, but the Grand National is always such a weird market because of how badly the EW place odds reflect the actual likelihood of a horse placing in that race. The prices on the EW part of bets are so far off, it's absurd.
Tiger Roll was 7/2 - So he would've been odds on (7/8) to place top 4. Most of the bookies giving extra places were also 1/5 place odds. There's very few horses that should even be odds on to finish the race, never mind odds on to place!
The exchanges had him around 3.5 (or 5/2) to finish in the top 4 from memory, which seems more reasonable. I'm sure everyone who bet on Tiger Roll, Rathvinden or any of the top 10 or so horses in the market EW received a juicy 'free bet if you reload' offer from the bookies sometime this afternoon.
Then all of the outsiders are the total opposite end of the scale where if you take the best price available, it's probably going to be +EV to back that horse each way. There's definitely an argument for just blindly sticking a fiver EW on every horse above maybe 80/1 or so on Saturday morning.