I’ve never really played around with such software, but what does it mean when you’ve assigned ranges to Btn, SB and BB here when they’re acting behind you? Have you got them calling too often to you jamming?
Assuming the calculator just assumes your fold equity is very low for this not to be profitable. Not sure if that changes as oppo stacks increase or anything - not sure how smart this tool is
I haven't assigned these ranges, HRC has. I believe they're purely based on Nash equlibrium calculations.
I don't believe HRC has any concept of fold equity, it just tells you your EV vs mathematically optimal ranges. But it does show us that UTG and MP are supposed to be very tight here, so I don't think I'm getting both players to fold very often on average. If MP folds (and that's exactly what happened here) it's close to a flip vs UTG's range (45% v 54%*), but MP shouldn't be flatting almost anything that folds to a 12bb jam.
* According to a dodgy online calculator I found. I don't have access to Equilab because I'm on a Mac.
Can we see the opening range/calling range of MP that HRC has assigned these 2? Imo that’s where it might be differing from reality. A call from a weak MP player is a super wide range in my experience - obv tourney and opponent dependent, but a typical £5.50 bounty raise and flat can be super super wide, which HRC is not factoring in
Can we see the opening range/calling range of MP that HRC has assigned these 2? Imo that’s where it might be differing from reality. A call from a weak MP player is a super wide range in my experience - obv tourney and opponent dependent, but a typical £5.50 bounty raise and flat can be super super wide, which HRC is not factoring in
Here we go:
I think the UTG range is reasonable but I agree that this MP--who, as I say, I had already marked as a weak player--is probably flatting much wider. I extended his range as noted in my previous post and it didn't help much. I just tried again giving him an even wider range, with all the pairs, most suited aces, some suited kings, some off suit aces, and some other junk:
Even against that range, 77 still isn't doing well at +0.75 (I believe this is bb/100). If I take JJ and TT out, assuming he would 3b, we can get to +1.14. Even so, per my last post, even if we assume MP will fold I'm in poor shape against UTG's range. I need both to be playing horribly for this to be a clear jam.
I think it's worth noting that I would rather base my decisions on what a good player will do than a bad player, in general, since I expect to be playing against more of those at higher buy-ins. I'm more than happy to try to exploit these weak players but I've had to work pretty hard here to find a profitable jam.
Imo those ranges are even wider than the “wide ranges” you’ve given - fish will for sure be calling k10, q10, k8s etc. But as you say good players won’t be so can be tough to adjust between buy ins and fields.
Think the point still stands though that this spot is definitely a tighter shoving range for us than I thought so your diary has already helped me if nothing else 😂😂
Think the point still stands though that this spot is definitely a tighter shoving range for us than I thought so your diary has already helped me if nothing else 😂😂
I was surprised too. I'm more used to realising I'm playing far too tight. Nice to have my instincts validated on this one.
I don't believe HRC has any concept of fold equity, it just tells you your EV vs mathematically optimal ranges.
Ok, I think this is the problem. The bit it’s missing is that the wider their initial range the higher proportion of folds your jam is going to receive. Most of the equity of the spot comes from the additional chips provided by the flatter, and the fact that UTG can’t just snap off with their whole range as they also have to be mindful they’re not closing the action.
Fold equity is difficult to calculate, especially if it’s a BH as will depend a lot on player tendencies and can differ given how much of their stack they’re risking etc.
Other thing to consider is their ranges might not be based on 6max, effectively 6max UTG is HJ+1 (LJ?). The ranges seem too tight to me.
That UTG range is way too tight - is that UTG 9max? As a result, all of the subsequent ranges are too tight.
As a side point, it's useful to know what 'should' be correct in plenty of spots. How can you exploit people's mistakes if you don't know what the optimal play is and how they're deviating, right?
However, you can't live in fantasy land about what people are actually doing at the tables. Let's assume your HRC calculations are correct. If either one of those players is deviating from that, it completely changes what your calling range should be, and playing around with this is one of the most useful things to do in HRC imo. If you blindly follow solutions it's just going to lead to a lot of frustration.
TLDR: HRC work is great; taking it as gospel isn't
Ok, I think this is the problem. The wider their ranges are the worse your raw equity is going to be with 77. The bit it’s missing is that the wider their initial range the higher proportion of folds your jam is going to receive. Most of the equity of the spot comes from the additional chips provided by the flatter, and the fact that UTG can’t just snap off with their whole range as they also have to be mindful they’re not closing the action.
Fold equity is difficult to calculate, especially if it’s a BH as will depend a lot on player tendencies and can differ given how much of their stack they’re risking etc.
Other thing to consider is their ranges might not be based on 6max, effectively 6max UTG is HJ+1 (LJ?). The ranges seem too tight to me.
The ranges are definitely based on 6 players.
I agree fold equity is the determining factor here. Assuming I have done the math anywhere near correctly, whether this is good or not still ultimately comes down to how wide MP is flatting. Against UTG with my estimated 45% equity, this is always profitable to shove. Against MP's prescribed range, I need a fold 10-20% of the time; against his artificially wide range, this is always profitable. In reality, it's obviously going to be somewhere in ths middle. If he has the range HRC gives him (TT-88, AQs-AJs, AQo-AJo), I don't know if he's folding to a 12bb jam 10-20% of the time when he has close to 40bb and a potential bounty to win. I'm not sure how these probabilities interact multi-way, to be completely honest.
On balance, I think I'm now leaning towards jamming being good in this case, since we've already established MP is very, very rarely this tight and UTG is near irrelevant. Against good players with solid ranges, it still seems quite questionable.
I don't mean to come across as harsh by the way, and it's really great that you're taking the time to look at these spots and ask other people about them! But you do have to be careful
As an extreme example, there are diaries on 2p2 of people working with PIO who can't beat 2nl because they're completely misapplying what it says.
There's another one of someone losing at 50bb/100 at 2nl because his HUD says people have xyz stats so he's playing like an idiot based off data he's misinterpreted.
Ok, I think this is the problem. The wider their ranges are the worse your raw equity is going to be with 77. The bit it’s missing is that the wider their initial range the higher proportion of folds your jam is going to receive. Most of the equity of the spot comes from the additional chips provided by the flatter, and the fact that UTG can’t just snap off with their whole range as they also have to be mindful they’re not closing the action.
Fold equity is difficult to calculate, especially if it’s a BH as will depend a lot on player tendencies and can differ given how much of their stack they’re risking etc.
Other thing to consider is their ranges might not be based on 6max, effectively 6max UTG is HJ+1 (LJ?). The ranges seem too tight to me.
The ranges are definitely based on 6 players.
I agree fold equity is the determining factor here. Assuming I have done the math anywhere near correctly, whether this is good or not still ultimately comes down to how wide MP is flatting. Against UTG with my estimated 45% equity, this is always profitable to shove. Against MP's prescribed range, I need a fold 10-20% of the time; against his artificially wide range, this is always profitable. In reality, it's obviously going to be somewhere in ths middle. If he has the range HRC gives him (TT-88, AQs-AJs, AQo-AJo), I don't know if he's folding to a 12bb jam 10-20% of the time when he has close to 40bb and a potential bounty to win. I'm not sure how these probabilities interact multi-way, to be completely honest.
On balance, I think I'm now leaning towards jamming being good in this case, since we've already established MP is very, very rarely this tight and UTG is near irrelevant. Against good players with solid ranges, it still seems quite questionable.
The good players are going to know their ranges but the solution ranges are a default for playing against unknowns or tough opponents so that they can't be exploited. That's what an equilibrium range is. Unless it's a tough line-up good players are going to be adjusting by opening wider and you have to consider those adjustments.
I don't mean to come across as harsh by the way, and it's really great that you're taking the time to look at these spots and ask other people about them! But you do have to be careful
Please don't worry about seeming harsh. I appreciate any good faith effort to contribute to these discussions.
I do have a slight bias when it comes to exploiting fold equity in that I simply do not trust weak players to fold. I've been snapped off by some god awful hands countless times. And so I tend to prefer to stay on the nittier side in these kinds of spots where I need to get folds from bad players with theoretically strong ranges. Honestly, I like it as an adjustment but I also need to remember that these people are not usually positionally aware and rarely as strong as they should be.
I would expect the utg opening range to be a bit wider than optimal, to hunt the bb's bounty then.
I think you can take into consideration population tendencies too rather than just going by what is optimal. In most cases people open too wide with a short stack, especially at lower stakes, in my experience anyway.
Given both of the above considerations I would be surprised it UTG is folding hands like 9Ts-9Ks, JTs, QTs, or even hands like KTo and QJo and wider.
As this is a bounty hunter, a lot of the hands the solver has assigned to MP calling range will 3b with at least some frequency, to hunt the 21bb utg stack and 5bb stack in the bb, including almost all of the bigger pairs.
Opening ranges are a good thing to take a note of once you know what is optimal, as you have already established it can make a significant difference to profitable jamming ranges. Playing around with sims like this will help you know how to adapt your ranges to theirs.
I expect 77 will be a good jam after you plug all this into the solver
I would expect the utg opening range to be a bit wider than optimal, to hunt the bb's bounty then.
I think you can take into consideration population tendencies too rather than just going by what is optimal. In most cases people open too wide with a short stack, especially at lower stakes, in my experience anyway.
Given both of the above considerations I would be surprised it UTG is folding hands like 9Ts-9Ks, JTs, QTs, or even hands like KTo and QJo and wider.
As this is a bounty hunter, a lot of the hands the solver has assigned to MP calling range will 3b with at least some frequency, to hunt the 21bb utg stack and 5bb stack in the bb, including almost all of the bigger pairs.
Opening ranges are a good thing to take a note of once you know what is optimal, as you have already established it can make a significant difference to profitable jamming ranges. Playing around with sims like this will help you know how to adapt your ranges to theirs.
I expect 77 will be a good jam after you plug all this into the solver
Rolling with a big stack in the Mini Predator right now thanks to a weird and lucky hand. One of those spots where I didn't know what to do. What does MP have when he flats an open then jams to a 3bet? I've seen people do that with AA and KK, but I blocked both and I don't know how to fold AK so decided to just get it in. What would you do?
Player
Action
Cards
Amount
Pot
Balance
NOSTRI
Small blind
50.00
50.00
6095.00
butters08
Big blind
100.00
150.00
4480.00
Your hole cards
A
K
Gordie1211
Raise
200.00
350.00
4680.00
CassClay18
Call
200.00
550.00
4842.50
TEXANT
Fold
FAS
Fold
NOSTRI
Raise
950.00
1500.00
5145.00
butters08
Fold
Gordie1211
Call
800.00
2300.00
3880.00
CassClay18
All-in
4842.50
7142.50
0.00
NOSTRI
All-in
5145.00
12287.50
0.00
Gordie1211
All-in
3880.00
16167.50
0.00
NOSTRI
Unmatched bet
1102.50
15065.00
1102.50
NOSTRI
Show
A
K
Gordie1211
Show
K
10
CassClay18
Show
J
J
Flop
K
6
5
Turn
A
River
2
NOSTRI
Win
Two Pairs, Aces and Kings
15065.00
16167.50
Update: Got AA twice in the space of 5 hands, lost both times when I should have found folds and now I feel dumb. Back to 20bb we go.
And we're out after running AK into QQ, missing a payout by about ten spots. That went well!
Not going to bother posting the AA hands as they were fairly easy folds. It couldn't have been more obvious villain flopped a set in the first one, and straights and flushes got there by the river in the second one. Really mad at myself for not folding both. No fun to lose twice with aces in such a short span though.
Comments
I don't believe HRC has any concept of fold equity, it just tells you your EV vs mathematically optimal ranges. But it does show us that UTG and MP are supposed to be very tight here, so I don't think I'm getting both players to fold very often on average. If MP folds (and that's exactly what happened here) it's close to a flip vs UTG's range (45% v 54%*), but MP shouldn't be flatting almost anything that folds to a 12bb jam.
* According to a dodgy online calculator I found. I don't have access to Equilab because I'm on a Mac.
Can we see the opening range/calling range of MP that HRC has assigned these 2? Imo that’s where it might be differing from reality. A call from a weak MP player is a super wide range in my experience - obv tourney and opponent dependent, but a typical £5.50 bounty raise and flat can be super super wide, which HRC is not factoring in
I think the UTG range is reasonable but I agree that this MP--who, as I say, I had already marked as a weak player--is probably flatting much wider. I extended his range as noted in my previous post and it didn't help much. I just tried again giving him an even wider range, with all the pairs, most suited aces, some suited kings, some off suit aces, and some other junk:
Even against that range, 77 still isn't doing well at +0.75 (I believe this is bb/100). If I take JJ and TT out, assuming he would 3b, we can get to +1.14. Even so, per my last post, even if we assume MP will fold I'm in poor shape against UTG's range. I need both to be playing horribly for this to be a clear jam.
I think it's worth noting that I would rather base my decisions on what a good player will do than a bad player, in general, since I expect to be playing against more of those at higher buy-ins. I'm more than happy to try to exploit these weak players but I've had to work pretty hard here to find a profitable jam.
Loving this thread, & learning, too.
Imo those ranges are even wider than the “wide ranges” you’ve given - fish will for sure be calling k10, q10, k8s etc. But as you say good players won’t be so can be tough to adjust between buy ins and fields.
Think the point still stands though that this spot is definitely a tighter shoving range for us than I thought so your diary has already helped me if nothing else 😂😂
Enjoyable discussion though.
Fold equity is difficult to calculate, especially if it’s a BH as will depend a lot on player tendencies and can differ given how much of their stack they’re risking etc.
Other thing to consider is their ranges might not be based on 6max, effectively 6max UTG is HJ+1 (LJ?). The ranges seem too tight to me.
As a side point, it's useful to know what 'should' be correct in plenty of spots. How can you exploit people's mistakes if you don't know what the optimal play is and how they're deviating, right?
However, you can't live in fantasy land about what people are actually doing at the tables. Let's assume your HRC calculations are correct. If either one of those players is deviating from that, it completely changes what your calling range should be, and playing around with this is one of the most useful things to do in HRC imo. If you blindly follow solutions it's just going to lead to a lot of frustration.
TLDR: HRC work is great; taking it as gospel isn't
I agree fold equity is the determining factor here. Assuming I have done the math anywhere near correctly, whether this is good or not still ultimately comes down to how wide MP is flatting. Against UTG with my estimated 45% equity, this is always profitable to shove. Against MP's prescribed range, I need a fold 10-20% of the time; against his artificially wide range, this is always profitable. In reality, it's obviously going to be somewhere in ths middle. If he has the range HRC gives him (TT-88, AQs-AJs, AQo-AJo), I don't know if he's folding to a 12bb jam 10-20% of the time when he has close to 40bb and a potential bounty to win. I'm not sure how these probabilities interact multi-way, to be completely honest.
On balance, I think I'm now leaning towards jamming being good in this case, since we've already established MP is very, very rarely this tight and UTG is near irrelevant. Against good players with solid ranges, it still seems quite questionable.
As an extreme example, there are diaries on 2p2 of people working with PIO who can't beat 2nl because they're completely misapplying what it says.
There's another one of someone losing at 50bb/100 at 2nl because his HUD says people have xyz stats so he's playing like an idiot based off data he's misinterpreted.
I do have a slight bias when it comes to exploiting fold equity in that I simply do not trust weak players to fold. I've been snapped off by some god awful hands countless times. And so I tend to prefer to stay on the nittier side in these kinds of spots where I need to get folds from bad players with theoretically strong ranges. Honestly, I like it as an adjustment but I also need to remember that these people are not usually positionally aware and rarely as strong as they should be.
Learning a lot here.
I think you can take into consideration population tendencies too rather than just going by what is optimal. In most cases people open too wide with a short stack, especially at lower stakes, in my experience anyway.
Given both of the above considerations I would be surprised it UTG is folding hands like 9Ts-9Ks, JTs, QTs, or even hands like KTo and QJo and wider.
As this is a bounty hunter, a lot of the hands the solver has assigned to MP calling range will 3b with at least some frequency, to hunt the 21bb utg stack and 5bb stack in the bb, including almost all of the bigger pairs.
Opening ranges are a good thing to take a note of once you know what is optimal, as you have already established it can make a significant difference to profitable jamming ranges. Playing around with sims like this will help you know how to adapt your ranges to theirs.
I expect 77 will be a good jam after you plug all this into the solver
Not going to bother posting the AA hands as they were fairly easy folds. It couldn't have been more obvious villain flopped a set in the first one, and straights and flushes got there by the river in the second one. Really mad at myself for not folding both. No fun to lose twice with aces in such a short span though.