I apologise for the length and it's not as interesting than yesterday but here is todays report
ohn R Bruning briefing. Original post and photos here; www.facebook.com/john.r.bruning
Wednesday Ukraine Specific Update: Note: The situation on the ground is confusing, both sides are spreading propaganda and obscuring their defeats/losses. Adding to the confusion is the lack of clear understanding of the Russian military goals at this point. The initial campaign--a lightning drive to seize Kiev and effect regime change--has ended. The Russians themselves may be in a state of strategic chaos, trying to find a way to salvage something quickly and turn this into a victory. As a result, it appears that their main effort has shifted from Kyiv to the Donbas and Mariupol. I'm trying to filter the obvious chaff, but again, I'm just a military historian from rural Oregon. So, take these updates in that vein, and I appreciate all of you taking the time to read them.
1. NATO nations appear to have differing views of how the Russian invasion is progressing. The most optimistic estimates are coming out of the Pentagon, the more pessimistic ones are coming out of the French assessment. The UK falls in the middle. Some of the resources I've been using, including the ISW daily briefs, are heavily reliant on Ukrainian sources and as a result are probably overly optimistic. The French are seeing a grinding, slow moving and extremely punishing offensive in parts of Ukraine, especially at Kharkiv where the Russians have slowly been surrounding the city. If my college French is accurate, they believe the drive northward from the Crimean front of the offensive will commence after the fall of Mariupol. That will cut the Donbas off from the rest of the Ukraine if that drive succeeds. Attached is the daily French map showing what they are seeing. The UK is seeing slow Russian progress in places against fierce resistance. I've attached their daily slides here so you can see the British assessment. Note, the UK also believes the Russians are going to try and sever the Donbas from the rest of Ukraine with pincer moves from Kharkiv in the northeast and units from the Crimean to the south. ISW: Reports today that the NW and NE fronts around Kyiv are static again with ongoing local Ukrainian counter-attacks. Heavy fighting in the Donbas resulted in several repelled Russian attacks. And the Russians are slowly tightening the noose around Mariupol. Additionally, ISW does not think there is an overall commander assigned for the Ukraine invasion, which has caused the higher level HQs to fight/compete for resources. This may be part of why the Russian strategic plan at this point seems so unclear.
2. Ukrainian Counter-Attacks: a.) Overhead NASA imagery from its wildfire reporting satellite shows lots of fighting to the northwest of Kyiv. The Russians are dug in here, so this is an interesting data point. b.) To go with this data point, there are reports stating that the Ukrainians have worked their way to the west and northwest of the Russians NW of Kyiv--in other words they're counterattacking on their flank and rear, trying to get in behind them and surround their dug-in forces. Right now, Irpin, Hostomel/Antonov Airport and several other key planes are reportedly now isolated with Ukrainian forces in their rear. The press has been reporting the Ukrainians have recaptured a suburb of Kyiv called Makariv. It is not a suburb. It is 60 kilometers west of Kyiv and on the edge of the Russian right flank. This is another data point that suggests the Ukrainians are getting around the right flank and into the rear of what had been their main effort in country until recently. My thoughts on this: The composition of those Ukrainian forces is unclear, but my guess is that they do not have a lot of armor or armored vehicles, as the ground in that area is still very soggy. Unless they're sticking to the roads like the Russians have, they're probably using dismounted infantry and a mix of territorial troops fighting as guerrillas. The Ukrainians have banned all journalists from the front lines on either side of Kyiv as of today, suggesting something larger is about to happen and this is an operational security move, or they're trying to conceal a disaster. c.) The effects of these Ukrainian counter-attacks are, I think, being overstated in many Western sources. We want to see them throw the Russians out, drive them across the border, so we're losing perspective a bit. I've fallen into that mode, and will be more cautious in the future.
3.) Russian Colonel Alexi Sharov, commander of the 810th Guards of the Zhukov Brigade, has been reported liberated of life in the fighting around Mariupol.
4.) There are estimates now that 13.5% of Ukrainian territory has been mined by one side or the other. This will be an enormous logistical and practical headache for years and years to come. When I was in Afghanistan in 2010, the efforts to clear Russian minefields from the 1980s was ongoing, and I witnessed one mine being detonated in Sorkhab Valley. Post-war, this will bring many tragedies to Ukrainian civilians. In the moment, there are increasing signs that mines or IEDs are taking out Russian vehicles. Videos of such attacks are increasingly circulating.
5.) The information sphere of this war is almost totally dominated by the Ukrainians. Their Information Operation campaign has been one of the most successful since WWII. The fact that Western social media and tech companies have banned or blocked Russian sources has assisted in this effort. The heavy handed, over the top Russian propaganda looks much as it did when Pravda was reporting the Cold War in the 1970s-80s, but having access to seeing what they are saying provides an insight into their side that can be unintentionally revealing. For example, a recent Russian article I found and read documented all the reasons why Russian special forces use weapons with iron sights and do not use night optics. They basically explained away the tech the U.S. and West relies on as redundant and not providing any attentional benefit to the troops, plus Russian Spetsnaz operators prefer iron sights anyway. The piece was churlish and defensive, and it said to me that the money that was supposed to go to purchasing these systems during their post-2008 reform efforts has been spent elsewhere. Justifying battlefield inferiority by showing it is actually a strength is something only the true Kool Aid drinkers would buy, so it is a shame our corporations have blocked Russian media. The accidental insight that one article provided is the stuff that can be of great use when searching for signs on their intent or condition of their army. That's it for now.
Photos: 1-3: Current UK assessment. 4. French map & bulletin point assessment. 5. Quote from Russian article on why iron sights for their rifles are better than high tech stuff. 6. Assessment by a US open source analyst of the Ukrainian counter-attack NW of Kyiv. 7. Overhead NASA imagery from their wildfire detection satellite showing the hot spots (fires/firefights/burning stuff) NW of Kyiv in the past 24 hours. 8. Map of area with those hotspots documented. 9-10: More Overhead imagery showing the effect of the Ukrainian flooding campaign nw of Kyiv. Before and current. Maneuvering between the Russian MSR (main supply route) and east to the Kyiv Reservoir looks almost impossible now.
John Bruning Briefing Originally posted here; www.facebook.com/john.r.bruning
Today's post will deal with the unthinkable--use of nuclear weapons. Lots and lots of scary articles in the mainstream media, talk and chatter on the web right now. It all looks super alarming. It is important to remember that the threat of nuclear war is still very low. Not impossible, but remote. There have been no reported movements of tactical warheads out of Russian storage facilities. I have not seen any NBC (Nuclear, Biological, Chemical) gear captured by the Ukrainians. They've captured everything else, so either the Russians did not deploy with it, or the Ukrainians are censoring images of that stuff. Putin's "Special combat alert" for his nuclear forces has not appeared to make any difference in their posture, and it is still unclear if it actually meant any concrete steps were taken, or if it was just part of Putin's brinksmanship to scare the West. Here's some of the more recent developments on this front, along with the different range of viewpoints on this that I've found. Keep in mind the context: the threat right now is low. --------------------------- 1. A Russian lawmaker, Alexei Zhuravlyov, stated publicly that if NATO sends a "peacekeeping" force into Ukraine, the Russians will strike back with nuclear weapons against those troops and target Warsaw. Zhuravlyov is a member of the Rodina ultra-nationalist, communist party, and advocated kidnapping U.S. Congressman Ruben Gallego in December for being an advocate of aid to Ukraine. Gallego's public response was, "F-- around and find out." So, two super geniuses of statesmanship right here. He has appeared on camera in a military uniform telling people he was going to the front (in February) and urged everyone to fight to liberate the Donbas. He's stated publicly that the world is Russia's to own and dominate. Here is his appearance on Russian TV where he advocates nuclear war in the event of NATO intervention: https://youtu.be/ueQTxtWV-AU 2. One of Russia's diplomats at the UN did an interview with conservative Australian TV station Skynews and said the West should not threaten a nuclear power (Russia). See that here at CNN: www.cnn.com/.../h_8ba993d756995db160191a26152f396f
3. The French reportedly cycled onto a higher nuclear alert last night. The French reportedly surged three of their four nuclear-weapon-armed submarines to sea. Normally, they rotate to keep one at sea at all times. France has about 300 warheads.
4. The Biden administration has not escalated or put American strategic forces at a higher DEFCON. 5= no threat, 1= war imminent. Exactly where they are on the DEFCON scale is conjecture--mainly that STRATCOM is at DEFCON 4. However, Peter Pry just wrote an article here that is an outlier among most of the nuclear war/threat analysts. In it, he states the U.S. strategic forces are at DEFCON 5 and ripe to be destroyed by a Russian first strike. www.realcleardefense.com/.../the_nuclear_911_in... Pry is a late Cold War warrior, serving in the CIA from 1985-95 as a nuclear plans/threat analyst. He's also been a member of the nuclear verification team post-Cold War. He is currently the executive director of a Congressional advisory task force on homeland security. Pry is an outlier and represents a minority viewpoint on the current threat of a nuclear attack. There are a few others, most late Cold War warriors who are now retired who believe we are heading toward a collision, but the vast majority of the current analysts and nuclear warfare specialists seem to believe the threat is low, and mainly focused on a Russian use of tactical (Non Strategic Nuclear Weapons) in Ukraine. Also, as Jon Parshall has pointed out, a Russian first strike would not be able to eliminate our submarine-based warheads, and they would destroy Russia. So, the threat of this seems very, very remote. The prevailing that counters Pry's, as far as I've found, is best represented by Prof Matthew Kroenig. He is a director at the Atlantic Council and teaches at Georgetown. His bio is here: www.atlanticcouncil.org/expert/matthew-kroenig/ His Twitter feed is here: twitter.com/MatthewKroenig His view is that the threat of nuclear war is low, but if it happens the weapons used will likely be used in Ukraine. That will put the United States and NATO in a position where they must choose how best to respond to this. Kroenig believes the US and the Biden Administration would find a non-nuclear option to respond to such an attack. That said, Biden announced after the meeting in Brussels that NATO/US would respond "in kind" to a nuclear, chemical or biological attack. The U.S. has no functional chemical weapons anymore--all but about 5% of the stockpile has been destroyed. The remain 5% is scheduled to be destroyed and they're old and non-combat ready. So, we can't respond in kind to a chemical attack. Thus, the position Biden is really talking about using a nuclear weapon in response to a Russian nuclear attack in Ukraine. Kroenig lays out the most likely possible scenarios in a recent School of War podcast. The challenge as he sees it is this: Putin uses nuclear rhetoric and brinksmanship to force the West into a choice: Surrender or face Suicide by massive nuclear war because he's willing to use them first. How to counter that strategy is an exceptionally difficult strategic issue, and there are divergent opinions on the best way to proceed. The podcast can be found here and is really worth a listen: nebulouspodcasts.com/shows/school-of-war
5. A small group of civilians, including engineer Ivan Stepanov and former RISOP analyst David Teter. have been building a new open source RISOP. What is RISOP? Red Integrated Strategic Offensive Plan (RISOP). This is essentially a probable target list in the US in the event of different kinds of retaliatory strikes. There are some old FEMA maps from 1990 and 1996 showing various possible targets in the event of a limited exchange or full exchange. These guys are trying to fill the gap. Teter is a former Cold War-era analyst whose job was to divine probable Russian targets in the even of nuclear war. Ivan grew up next to the Soviet-era nuclear test ranges. Their simulator is here: nuclearwarsimulator.com/ David tweets here:
/photo/1 Ivan tweets here: twitter.com/ivnstepanov
6. Lastly, the Biden Administration has assembled a group of policy and security experts to look for ways to respond to a Russian first-use of chemical or nuclear weapons in Ukraine. According to the New York Times, this is called the "Tiger Team" and was designed to arm President Biden with options and discussion points on this front when he meets with the other NATO leaders in Brussels this week. See the article here: www.nytimes.com/.../biden-russia-nuclear-weapons... It is important to note that the administration members interviewed for the article state they have seen nothing from the Russians that merit raising our alert level.
Whilst I find Vespas comments disconcerting I do not think he should be banned rather corrected and debunked.
I believe freedom of speech is very important and we need to let people say stuff we find offensive or stuff that is plane wrong, otherwise we run the risk of becoming a state like Russia where media is completely censored and everyone is controlled by been pushed down a narrow narrative.
I think there are exceptions for things like slander liable and direct calls for violence.
However if we restrict speech to only the narrative we want then soon people can outlaw our speech when we advocate what more rational views. Further we can be led blindly to following an evil agenda without realising it.
Freedom of speech is important.
Agreed! Having one and only one viewpoint in a two sided debate is not useful.
For avoidance of doubt I am running a 10km for Ukraine as part of a fitness group on the 10th of April to help the Ukrainian people in Poland. The charity our entry fees go to is:-
The capacity for the run is 200 and there will be home baking and a kiosk/marshalls and other volunteers.
I realise this is a little off-topic while being still on topic. Would it be ok to create a new thread over the next few days about our fundraiser and have a link to our fundraising page?
ohn Bruning Briefing from last night www.facebook.com/john.r.bruning
Ukraine Update: 1. Ukrainian government sources are now reporting the Russians are issuing chemical weapons kits to their soldiers, including "antidotes" to such weapons.
2. France, Turkey and Greece are launching an humanitarian effort to save the surviving civilians in Mariupol with a seaborne evacuation effort. French President Macron is trying to talk to Putin to discuss the situation. The Russians have advanced into Mariupol's city center, so it is only a matter of time before the city is captured. It has been 80-90% destroyed by aerial bombing and artillery.
3. The Russian commander of the 49th Combined Arms Army, Major General Yakov Ryezantsev, has been reported killed during yet another Ukrainian attack on the Kherson Airfield. Seriously, if this is true, that makes two generals killed in the same place a week or so apart. Pretty sure this is #7 killed by the Ukrainians, if true. At last count, I think Putin had purged another 11. So, bad time to be a Russian general.
4. The Russian Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, a very close confidante of Putin's, has not been seen with Putin since the Feb. 27th televised meeting in which Putin announced he was putting Russia's nuclear forces on "special alert." Shoigu has not been seen in public since March 11, and there are now reports he has "suffered a heart attack." Not confirmed as far as I can tell.
5. Negotiations: Turkey's Erdogan announced earlier today that Zelensky had agreed to make Russia an official language of Ukraine, and forgo NATO membership. This was immediately denied by the Ukrainian foreign minister. Additionally, the Ukrainians are now saying that they will not give up any territory for "the sake of peace." Interesting twist: The Times of India reports that the Russians have declared the first phase of their military operation to be mostly over, and a success. The official line is now that the first phase was designed to degrade Ukraine military capabilities. The Russians further announced that their main effort now will narrow to liberate the Donbas--the two breakaway regions that have been contested since 2014. This is a major change in their stated war aims, and a clear signal that they are looking for a way to declare victory and the end the fighting.
6. Northwest of Kyiv, the Ukrainian counterattack there has made minimal gains in the past 24 hours. Reports that they have surrounded or cut off Russian units there seem overstated.
7. Northeast of Kyiv, Ukrainians claim to have gained 50 kilometers of ground in a counter-attack beyond Brovary. Northeast of Brovary, the Russians are saying they have surrounded the city of Chernihiv, which has a prewar population of just under 300k. The Ukrainians dispute that.
8. In the south, lots of reports, including one from the Pentagon, that Ukrainian forces counter-attacking toward Kherson have actually established a foothold in the city. The Russians deny this. If it is true, the one major city they've captured so far is being contested again.
9. A U.S. volunteer fighting with the Ukrainians has been posting his experiences in the fight so far. Yesterday, he reported his unit had been in a six hour firefight, taken one WIA and one KIA, destroyed six Russian armored vehicles and captured 156 Russian troops. Follow him here: twitter.com/jmvasquez1974
10, The Belarusian military has not entered the fight yet, but there remain many indicators that they will do so shortly.
11. Reports of sabotage along Belarus railroad lines continue.
๐๐ A video has been spread through social media purportedly showing Ukrainian soldiers shooting at least three Russian PoWs in the leg, with another video showing several more with identical wounds nearby. Some sources claim it's Azov Battalion forces doing this in Mariupol, and that it was done to ensure those soldiers would not re-enter the fight, as they have no means to keep prisoners in the urban fighting, but some of the footage is indeed quite gruesome and shows attempted interrogations with soldiers on the verge of bleeding out. Whatever the reasoning, and whoever did it, it's a clear war crime (my note: some video experts say video is suspicious and appears edited, e.g. gunshot audio timing is off. Russia is known for this sort of thing
The alleged footage of Ukrainians shooting Russian POWs in the legs is horrendous if true and really needs investigating.
Other claims: - the audio is synched through the whole thing except the gunshots, which are slightly off. This could happen if it was staged by the Russians and their technicians added the noise after. - some early releases showed no discharged from the guns that were shooting, recent uploads now do. This could happen if it was being edited and reuploaded. - blood stains on bandages look fake for recent injuries. This could happen if it was prepared by the Russians.
I watched the audio clip bit, the guy was going back and forth with the audio visualiser thing underneath. It looked pretty convincing that the gunshot audio was faked, but the Ukrainians have their own propaganda so hard to tell. War is just awful.
Original post and photos can be found here; www.facebook.com/john.r.bruning
Monday Ukraine Update: 1. Russian forces northwest of Kyiv pulled some elements back into Balarus over the weekend, indicating that the Ukrainian counter-attack has not effectively surrounded the forces there. The Russian units NW of Kyiv originally came from units based in the Eastern Military District of Russia. These units, when sent to Belarus earlier in the year for "training" were cherry-picked battalion level formations from a variety of different brigades and divisions. According to one source, Fred Kagan (Critical Threats Director of the American Enterprise Institute), the Russians sent those units to Belarus without organic command and control headquarters above the battalion level. Additionally, these battalions had never served together. One active duty US logistics officer has written a study on these forces NW of Kyiv and concluded that after the field exercises in February, the units there in Belarus went into combat with about half their normal supply load-out. Additionally, Kagan has pointed out that the Russians had not established many, if any, forward supply bases in Belarus along the border before the invasion. All of these things help explain the poor performance the Russians have displayed NW of Kyiv. However, as of about 5 hours ago, reports of renewed Russian attacks in both the NW and Eastern fronts of Kyiv have begun to flow onto the internet. The Russians have brought into these areas a host of new formations--some estimates I've seen say at least 10-15 fresh battalion combat teams of between 500-800 men each. No details on where exactly these new attacks are taking place on these two fronts, or the results so far.
2. Russians continue to advance, block by block, in Mariupol. A Russian major assigned to a naval infantry unit was killed in the fighting over the weekend. Lots of casualties here. The level of violence, misery and human suffering among the Ukrainians in the city cannot be underestimated. This is one of the worst moments of the 21st Century.
3. No further word on the joint plan Macron was discussing to evacuate civilians from Mariupol via sea.
4. Further heavy fighting around Sumy took place over the weekend. In Kharkiv, Russian bombardment hit a major gas line. The fighting around Kherson was characterized today as "partisan operations" by Ukrainian sources.
5. Several sources report that the Russians and Russian-backed forces in the Donbas launched a series of attacks again over the weekend that were all repelled by Ukrainian defenders.
6. Belarus has not entered the war and sent troops into Ukraine as of Monday morning. -----------
Strategic: 1. President Biden's last line in his speech in Poland, "For God's sake this man cannot remain in power" has dominated the news cycle for the last few days. I won't go into it except to say there are conflicting reports over whether the line was part of the speech, or ad libbed by the President. The White House and Dept. of State walk back has assured Russia and the world that regime change in Moscow is not a U.S. foreign policy objective.
2. Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia will continue this week.
3. There was an unusual meeting at the Russian Ministry of Defense last week between US officials and several Russian officials, including at least one general. It is hard to figure out what happened here, and the CNN article linked below is vague and contradictory. But the bottom line seems to be the Russian general they met with was in a state of agitation. Whether that is rage against the US, or despair over the situation in Ukraine, or both, is not clear. Read it here: www.cnn.com/.../us-russia-general-meeting/index.html
4, The Russians are pulling units out of many different areas to reinforce their effort in Ukraine. This has destabilized the situation between Armenia and Azerbaijan, where a 2020 war resulted in Russian peacekeepers being deployed and a Russian-brokered peace. More on this later in the week. Armenia has supplied 4 Su-30 fighter-bombers to the Russians--with Armenian crews--for use against the Ukrainians. ------------ Oryx, which is a team that has been documenting the losses on both sides very closely, has posted what they believe to be Russia's vehicle losses so far. That is photo/slide #1 today. #2 is the Ukrainian casualty estimate for 3/28. Last slide is the UK Ministry of Defense's brief. Morale: Lots of anecdotal reports on poor Russian morale. There have been many conflicting versions of a fragging incident where Russian troops may have either incapacitated or murdered the colonel in command of their regiment. Reports that Russians have been ordered to shoot deserters are circulating as well. Some stories, which were mentioned in a Pentagon brief last week, indicate some Russian units are dealing with significant numbers of frostbite casualties and do not have the capacity to treat them. Captured Russian field medical supplies have been described as "on par with WWII" medicine. Some reports are speculating that the Russian field hospitals are overwhelmed and cannot keep pace with the casualties. Additionally, CNN reports that getting the bodies of dead Russian soldiers out of Ukraine and back to Russia has become a logistical nightmare, and the corpses are being stored in unrefrigerated facilities. This again is a data point against the stories circulating last month of Russian mobile crematoriums, underscoring the fact that this war is awash in propaganda and rumors, and finding hard news on what is going on is very, very tough.
A large group of Russian invaders on the outskirts of Pervomaisk are moving along the road, when suddenly from behind a small hill they hear a voice shout: "One Ukrainian soldier is better than 10 Russians!"
The Russian commander orders a halt and his 10 best soldiers to go over the hill; a shooting begins, it lasts for a few minutes and stops.
Again a voice: "One Ukrainian soldier is better than 100 Russians!" The Russian commander then sends 100 of his best soldiers. Shooting again, screams, 10 minutes later silence.
The quiet Ukrainian shouts again: "One Ukrainian is better than 1,000 Russian soldiers!" The Russian commander sends 1,000 of his fighters over the hill.
The sounds of fighting, grenades, shots are heard. More screams - Silence. Suddenly, one seriously wounded Russian soldier crawls over the hill and the dying man begs his commander:
"Don't send anyone over there. It's a trap. There are two of them ..."
So I knew Ukraine was resource rich but did not realize how resource rich. I recently have heard that Russia have forcibly taken 10s of thousands of Ukrainian civilians as slaves for forced labor. Yet I only hear allegations of this and nothing substantiated fully regarding that, and it is quite a claim.
So a thought Occurred to me recently If Putin plays this right He and Russia win in a big way and we lose and lose badly.
See here is the thing if we wont trade with him fine but he can take a large bulk of the worlds natural resources whilst threatening to Nuke anyone who intervenes. He can then take millions or even 10s of millions of slaves for slave labor.
With the backing of India and China 10s of millions of slaves and A hugely significant proportion of the worlds resources Russia wont need trade with us to be prosperous they will be very rich and very powerful.
Further if he starves us of trade for all this we will really struggle and become very poor. Russia will become the dominant super power and be very prosperous where we will wait in ruin for Russia to eventually enslave us. What am I missing here?
also yes I have heard Russia are scaling back military operations in Ukraine after struggling apparently. However Russia are so full of lies how can we be sure? how much resources and slaves do they have control over currently? and even if they do scale back for now it is just for now they can continue at any point.
with regards to the Russian population uprising and over throwing him, I think this is unlikely sure there is some dissent but the majority of the Russian people fully support bringing back the old USSR and fully back Putin.
If we go to world war three we will have the majority of countries on our side sure, However the majority of land mass will be on the other side. Further the majority the of the global population will be on the other side to.
Comments
ohn R Bruning briefing.
Original post and photos here; www.facebook.com/john.r.bruning
Wednesday Ukraine Specific Update:
Note: The situation on the ground is confusing, both sides are spreading propaganda and obscuring their defeats/losses. Adding to the confusion is the lack of clear understanding of the Russian military goals at this point. The initial campaign--a lightning drive to seize Kiev and effect regime change--has ended. The Russians themselves may be in a state of strategic chaos, trying to find a way to salvage something quickly and turn this into a victory. As a result, it appears that their main effort has shifted from Kyiv to the Donbas and Mariupol.
I'm trying to filter the obvious chaff, but again, I'm just a military historian from rural Oregon. So, take these updates in that vein, and I appreciate all of you taking the time to read them.
1. NATO nations appear to have differing views of how the Russian invasion is progressing. The most optimistic estimates are coming out of the Pentagon, the more pessimistic ones are coming out of the French assessment. The UK falls in the middle. Some of the resources I've been using, including the ISW daily briefs, are heavily reliant on Ukrainian sources and as a result are probably overly optimistic.
The French are seeing a grinding, slow moving and extremely punishing offensive in parts of Ukraine, especially at Kharkiv where the Russians have slowly been surrounding the city. If my college French is accurate, they believe the drive northward from the Crimean front of the offensive will commence after the fall of Mariupol. That will cut the Donbas off from the rest of the Ukraine if that drive succeeds. Attached is the daily French map showing what they are seeing.
The UK is seeing slow Russian progress in places against fierce resistance. I've attached their daily slides here so you can see the British assessment. Note, the UK also believes the Russians are going to try and sever the Donbas from the rest of Ukraine with pincer moves from Kharkiv in the northeast and units from the Crimean to the south.
ISW: Reports today that the NW and NE fronts around Kyiv are static again with ongoing local Ukrainian counter-attacks. Heavy fighting in the Donbas resulted in several repelled Russian attacks. And the Russians are slowly tightening the noose around Mariupol.
Additionally, ISW does not think there is an overall commander assigned for the Ukraine invasion, which has caused the higher level HQs to fight/compete for resources. This may be part of why the Russian strategic plan at this point seems so unclear.
2. Ukrainian Counter-Attacks:
a.) Overhead NASA imagery from its wildfire reporting satellite shows lots of fighting to the northwest of Kyiv. The Russians are dug in here, so this is an interesting data point.
b.) To go with this data point, there are reports stating that the Ukrainians have worked their way to the west and northwest of the Russians NW of Kyiv--in other words they're counterattacking on their flank and rear, trying to get in behind them and surround their dug-in forces. Right now, Irpin, Hostomel/Antonov Airport and several other key planes are reportedly now isolated with Ukrainian forces in their rear.
The press has been reporting the Ukrainians have recaptured a suburb of Kyiv called Makariv. It is not a suburb. It is 60 kilometers west of Kyiv and on the edge of the Russian right flank. This is another data point that suggests the Ukrainians are getting around the right flank and into the rear of what had been their main effort in country until recently.
My thoughts on this: The composition of those Ukrainian forces is unclear, but my guess is that they do not have a lot of armor or armored vehicles, as the ground in that area is still very soggy. Unless they're sticking to the roads like the Russians have, they're probably using dismounted infantry and a mix of territorial troops fighting as guerrillas.
The Ukrainians have banned all journalists from the front lines on either side of Kyiv as of today, suggesting something larger is about to happen and this is an operational security move, or they're trying to conceal a disaster.
c.) The effects of these Ukrainian counter-attacks are, I think, being overstated in many Western sources. We want to see them throw the Russians out, drive them across the border, so we're losing perspective a bit. I've fallen into that mode, and will be more cautious in the future.
3.) Russian Colonel Alexi Sharov, commander of the 810th Guards of the Zhukov Brigade, has been reported liberated of life in the fighting around Mariupol.
4.) There are estimates now that 13.5% of Ukrainian territory has been mined by one side or the other. This will be an enormous logistical and practical headache for years and years to come. When I was in Afghanistan in 2010, the efforts to clear Russian minefields from the 1980s was ongoing, and I witnessed one mine being detonated in Sorkhab Valley. Post-war, this will bring many tragedies to Ukrainian civilians.
In the moment, there are increasing signs that mines or IEDs are taking out Russian vehicles. Videos of such attacks are increasingly circulating.
5.) The information sphere of this war is almost totally dominated by the Ukrainians. Their Information Operation campaign has been one of the most successful since WWII. The fact that Western social media and tech companies have banned or blocked Russian sources has assisted in this effort. The heavy handed, over the top Russian propaganda looks much as it did when Pravda was reporting the Cold War in the 1970s-80s, but having access to seeing what they are saying provides an insight into their side that can be unintentionally revealing.
For example, a recent Russian article I found and read documented all the reasons why Russian special forces use weapons with iron sights and do not use night optics. They basically explained away the tech the U.S. and West relies on as redundant and not providing any attentional benefit to the troops, plus Russian Spetsnaz operators prefer iron sights anyway.
The piece was churlish and defensive, and it said to me that the money that was supposed to go to purchasing these systems during their post-2008 reform efforts has been spent elsewhere. Justifying battlefield inferiority by showing it is actually a strength is something only the true Kool Aid drinkers would buy, so it is a shame our corporations have blocked Russian media. The accidental insight that one article provided is the stuff that can be of great use when searching for signs on their intent or condition of their army.
That's it for now.
Photos: 1-3: Current UK assessment. 4. French map & bulletin point assessment. 5. Quote from Russian article on why iron sights for their rifles are better than high tech stuff. 6. Assessment by a US open source analyst of the Ukrainian counter-attack NW of Kyiv. 7. Overhead NASA imagery from their wildfire detection satellite showing the hot spots (fires/firefights/burning stuff) NW of Kyiv in the past 24 hours. 8. Map of area with those hotspots documented. 9-10: More Overhead imagery showing the effect of the Ukrainian flooding campaign nw of Kyiv. Before and current. Maneuvering between the Russian MSR (main supply route) and east to the Kyiv Reservoir looks almost impossible now.
John Bruning Briefing
Originally posted here; www.facebook.com/john.r.bruning
Today's post will deal with the unthinkable--use of nuclear weapons. Lots and lots of scary articles in the mainstream media, talk and chatter on the web right now. It all looks super alarming.
It is important to remember that the threat of nuclear war is still very low. Not impossible, but remote.
There have been no reported movements of tactical warheads out of Russian storage facilities. I have not seen any NBC (Nuclear, Biological, Chemical) gear captured by the Ukrainians. They've captured everything else, so either the Russians did not deploy with it, or the Ukrainians are censoring images of that stuff.
Putin's "Special combat alert" for his nuclear forces has not appeared to make any difference in their posture, and it is still unclear if it actually meant any concrete steps were taken, or if it was just part of Putin's brinksmanship to scare the West.
Here's some of the more recent developments on this front, along with the different range of viewpoints on this that I've found. Keep in mind the context: the threat right now is low.
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1. A Russian lawmaker, Alexei Zhuravlyov, stated publicly that if NATO sends a "peacekeeping" force into Ukraine, the Russians will strike back with nuclear weapons against those troops and target Warsaw. Zhuravlyov is a member of the Rodina ultra-nationalist, communist party, and advocated kidnapping U.S. Congressman Ruben Gallego in December for being an advocate of aid to Ukraine. Gallego's public response was, "F-- around and find out." So, two super geniuses of statesmanship right here. He has appeared on camera in a military uniform telling people he was going to the front (in February) and urged everyone to fight to liberate the Donbas. He's stated publicly that the world is Russia's to own and dominate.
Here is his appearance on Russian TV where he advocates nuclear war in the event of NATO intervention:
2. One of Russia's diplomats at the UN did an interview with conservative Australian TV station Skynews and said the West should not threaten a nuclear power (Russia). See that here at CNN:
www.cnn.com/.../h_8ba993d756995db160191a26152f396f
3. The French reportedly cycled onto a higher nuclear alert last night. The French reportedly surged three of their four nuclear-weapon-armed submarines to sea. Normally, they rotate to keep one at sea at all times. France has about 300 warheads.
4. The Biden administration has not escalated or put American strategic forces at a higher DEFCON. 5= no threat, 1= war imminent. Exactly where they are on the DEFCON scale is conjecture--mainly that STRATCOM is at DEFCON 4.
However, Peter Pry just wrote an article here that is an outlier among most of the nuclear war/threat analysts. In it, he states the U.S. strategic forces are at DEFCON 5 and ripe to be destroyed by a Russian first strike.
www.realcleardefense.com/.../the_nuclear_911_in...
Pry is a late Cold War warrior, serving in the CIA from 1985-95 as a nuclear plans/threat analyst. He's also been a member of the nuclear verification team post-Cold War. He is currently the executive director of a Congressional advisory task force on homeland security.
Pry is an outlier and represents a minority viewpoint on the current threat of a nuclear attack. There are a few others, most late Cold War warriors who are now retired who believe we are heading toward a collision, but the vast majority of the current analysts and nuclear warfare specialists seem to believe the threat is low, and mainly focused on a Russian use of tactical (Non Strategic Nuclear Weapons) in Ukraine.
Also, as Jon Parshall has pointed out, a Russian first strike would not be able to eliminate our submarine-based warheads, and they would destroy Russia. So, the threat of this seems very, very remote.
The prevailing that counters Pry's, as far as I've found, is best represented by Prof Matthew Kroenig. He is a director at the Atlantic Council and teaches at Georgetown. His bio is here:
www.atlanticcouncil.org/expert/matthew-kroenig/
His Twitter feed is here:
twitter.com/MatthewKroenig
His view is that the threat of nuclear war is low, but if it happens the weapons used will likely be used in Ukraine. That will put the United States and NATO in a position where they must choose how best to respond to this. Kroenig believes the US and the Biden Administration would find a non-nuclear option to respond to such an attack.
That said, Biden announced after the meeting in Brussels that NATO/US would respond "in kind" to a nuclear, chemical or biological attack. The U.S. has no functional chemical weapons anymore--all but about 5% of the stockpile has been destroyed. The remain 5% is scheduled to be destroyed and they're old and non-combat ready. So, we can't respond in kind to a chemical attack. Thus, the position Biden is really talking about using a nuclear weapon in response to a Russian nuclear attack in Ukraine.
Kroenig lays out the most likely possible scenarios in a recent School of War podcast. The challenge as he sees it is this:
Putin uses nuclear rhetoric and brinksmanship to force the West into a choice: Surrender or face Suicide by massive nuclear war because he's willing to use them first. How to counter that strategy is an exceptionally difficult strategic issue, and there are divergent opinions on the best way to proceed.
The podcast can be found here and is really worth a listen:
nebulouspodcasts.com/shows/school-of-war
5. A small group of civilians, including engineer Ivan Stepanov and former RISOP analyst David Teter. have been building a new open source RISOP. What is RISOP? Red Integrated Strategic Offensive Plan (RISOP). This is essentially a probable target list in the US in the event of different kinds of retaliatory strikes. There are some old FEMA maps from 1990 and 1996 showing various possible targets in the event of a limited exchange or full exchange. These guys are trying to fill the gap. Teter is a former Cold War-era analyst whose job was to divine probable Russian targets in the even of nuclear war. Ivan grew up next to the Soviet-era nuclear test ranges. Their simulator is here:
nuclearwarsimulator.com/
David tweets here:
/photo/1
Ivan tweets here:
twitter.com/ivnstepanov
6. Lastly, the Biden Administration has assembled a group of policy and security experts to look for ways to respond to a Russian first-use of chemical or nuclear weapons in Ukraine. According to the New York Times, this is called the "Tiger Team" and was designed to arm President Biden with options and discussion points on this front when he meets with the other NATO leaders in Brussels this week. See the article here:
www.nytimes.com/.../biden-russia-nuclear-weapons...
It is important to note that the administration members interviewed for the article state they have seen nothing from the Russians that merit raising our alert level.
For avoidance of doubt I am running a 10km for Ukraine as part of a fitness group on the 10th of April to help the Ukrainian people in Poland. The charity our entry fees go to is:-
https://register-of-charities.charitycommission.gov.uk/charity-search/-/charity-details/264998/contact-information
https://www.facebook.com/lewishampolishcentre
The capacity for the run is 200 and there will be home baking and a kiosk/marshalls and other volunteers.
I realise this is a little off-topic while being still on topic. Would it be ok to create a new thread over the next few days about our fundraiser and have a link to our fundraising page?
Not sure on exactly what he is talking about in regards to women and children. Is there a full version of this somewhere?
He is a well known stutterer too so could be a little anxious and he is nearly 80 years old.
www.facebook.com/john.r.bruning
Ukraine Update:
1. Ukrainian government sources are now reporting the Russians are issuing chemical weapons kits to their soldiers, including "antidotes" to such weapons.
2. France, Turkey and Greece are launching an humanitarian effort to save the surviving civilians in Mariupol with a seaborne evacuation effort. French President Macron is trying to talk to Putin to discuss the situation.
The Russians have advanced into Mariupol's city center, so it is only a matter of time before the city is captured. It has been 80-90% destroyed by aerial bombing and artillery.
3. The Russian commander of the 49th Combined Arms Army, Major General Yakov Ryezantsev, has been reported killed during yet another Ukrainian attack on the Kherson Airfield. Seriously, if this is true, that makes two generals killed in the same place a week or so apart. Pretty sure this is #7 killed by the Ukrainians, if true. At last count, I think Putin had purged another 11. So, bad time to be a Russian general.
4. The Russian Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, a very close confidante of Putin's, has not been seen with Putin since the Feb. 27th televised meeting in which Putin announced he was putting Russia's nuclear forces on "special alert." Shoigu has not been seen in public since March 11, and there are now reports he has "suffered a heart attack." Not confirmed as far as I can tell.
5. Negotiations: Turkey's Erdogan announced earlier today that Zelensky had agreed to make Russia an official language of Ukraine, and forgo NATO membership. This was immediately denied by the Ukrainian foreign minister. Additionally, the Ukrainians are now saying that they will not give up any territory for "the sake of peace."
Interesting twist: The Times of India reports that the Russians have declared the first phase of their military operation to be mostly over, and a success. The official line is now that the first phase was designed to degrade Ukraine military capabilities. The Russians further announced that their main effort now will narrow to liberate the Donbas--the two breakaway regions that have been contested since 2014.
This is a major change in their stated war aims, and a clear signal that they are looking for a way to declare victory and the end the fighting.
6. Northwest of Kyiv, the Ukrainian counterattack there has made minimal gains in the past 24 hours. Reports that they have surrounded or cut off Russian units there seem overstated.
7. Northeast of Kyiv, Ukrainians claim to have gained 50 kilometers of ground in a counter-attack beyond Brovary. Northeast of Brovary, the Russians are saying they have surrounded the city of Chernihiv, which has a prewar population of just under 300k. The Ukrainians dispute that.
8. In the south, lots of reports, including one from the Pentagon, that Ukrainian forces counter-attacking toward Kherson have actually established a foothold in the city. The Russians deny this. If it is true, the one major city they've captured so far is being contested again.
9. A U.S. volunteer fighting with the Ukrainians has been posting his experiences in the fight so far. Yesterday, he reported his unit had been in a six hour firefight, taken one WIA and one KIA, destroyed six Russian armored vehicles and captured 156 Russian troops.
Follow him here: twitter.com/jmvasquez1974
10, The Belarusian military has not entered the fight yet, but there remain many indicators that they will do so shortly.
11. Reports of sabotage along Belarus railroad lines continue.
The alleged footage of Ukrainians shooting Russian POWs in the legs is horrendous if true and really needs investigating.
Other claims:
- the audio is synched through the whole thing except the gunshots, which are slightly off. This could happen if it was staged by the Russians and their technicians added the noise after.
- some early releases showed no discharged from the guns that were shooting, recent uploads now do. This could happen if it was being edited and reuploaded.
- blood stains on bandages look fake for recent injuries. This could happen if it was prepared by the Russians.
I watched the audio clip bit, the guy was going back and forth with the audio visualiser thing underneath. It looked pretty convincing that the gunshot audio was faked, but the Ukrainians have their own propaganda so hard to tell. War is just awful.
lets see
John Bruning Briefing
Original post and photos can be found here; www.facebook.com/john.r.bruning
Monday Ukraine Update:
1. Russian forces northwest of Kyiv pulled some elements back into Balarus over the weekend, indicating that the Ukrainian counter-attack has not effectively surrounded the forces there.
The Russian units NW of Kyiv originally came from units based in the Eastern Military District of Russia. These units, when sent to Belarus earlier in the year for "training" were cherry-picked battalion level formations from a variety of different brigades and divisions. According to one source, Fred Kagan (Critical Threats Director of the American Enterprise Institute), the Russians sent those units to Belarus without organic command and control headquarters above the battalion level. Additionally, these battalions had never served together. One active duty US logistics officer has written a study on these forces NW of Kyiv and concluded that after the field exercises in February, the units there in Belarus went into combat with about half their normal supply load-out. Additionally, Kagan has pointed out that the Russians had not established many, if any, forward supply bases in Belarus along the border before the invasion.
All of these things help explain the poor performance the Russians have displayed NW of Kyiv.
However, as of about 5 hours ago, reports of renewed Russian attacks in both the NW and Eastern fronts of Kyiv have begun to flow onto the internet. The Russians have brought into these areas a host of new formations--some estimates I've seen say at least 10-15 fresh battalion combat teams of between 500-800 men each.
No details on where exactly these new attacks are taking place on these two fronts, or the results so far.
2. Russians continue to advance, block by block, in Mariupol. A Russian major assigned to a naval infantry unit was killed in the fighting over the weekend. Lots of casualties here. The level of violence, misery and human suffering among the Ukrainians in the city cannot be underestimated. This is one of the worst moments of the 21st Century.
3. No further word on the joint plan Macron was discussing to evacuate civilians from Mariupol via sea.
4. Further heavy fighting around Sumy took place over the weekend. In Kharkiv, Russian bombardment hit a major gas line. The fighting around Kherson was characterized today as "partisan operations" by Ukrainian sources.
5. Several sources report that the Russians and Russian-backed forces in the Donbas launched a series of attacks again over the weekend that were all repelled by Ukrainian defenders.
6. Belarus has not entered the war and sent troops into Ukraine as of Monday morning.
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Strategic:
1. President Biden's last line in his speech in Poland, "For God's sake this man cannot remain in power" has dominated the news cycle for the last few days. I won't go into it except to say there are conflicting reports over whether the line was part of the speech, or ad libbed by the President. The White House and Dept. of State walk back has assured Russia and the world that regime change in Moscow is not a U.S. foreign policy objective.
2. Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia will continue this week.
3. There was an unusual meeting at the Russian Ministry of Defense last week between US officials and several Russian officials, including at least one general. It is hard to figure out what happened here, and the CNN article linked below is vague and contradictory. But the bottom line seems to be the Russian general they met with was in a state of agitation. Whether that is rage against the US, or despair over the situation in Ukraine, or both, is not clear. Read it here:
www.cnn.com/.../us-russia-general-meeting/index.html
4, The Russians are pulling units out of many different areas to reinforce their effort in Ukraine. This has destabilized the situation between Armenia and Azerbaijan, where a 2020 war resulted in Russian peacekeepers being deployed and a Russian-brokered peace. More on this later in the week.
Armenia has supplied 4 Su-30 fighter-bombers to the Russians--with Armenian crews--for use against the Ukrainians.
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Oryx, which is a team that has been documenting the losses on both sides very closely, has posted what they believe to be Russia's vehicle losses so far. That is photo/slide #1 today. #2 is the Ukrainian casualty estimate for 3/28. Last slide is the UK Ministry of Defense's brief.
Morale: Lots of anecdotal reports on poor Russian morale. There have been many conflicting versions of a fragging incident where Russian troops may have either incapacitated or murdered the colonel in command of their regiment. Reports that Russians have been ordered to shoot deserters are circulating as well. Some stories, which were mentioned in a Pentagon brief last week, indicate some Russian units are dealing with significant numbers of frostbite casualties and do not have the capacity to treat them. Captured Russian field medical supplies have been described as "on par with WWII" medicine. Some reports are speculating that the Russian field hospitals are overwhelmed and cannot keep pace with the casualties. Additionally, CNN reports that getting the bodies of dead Russian soldiers out of Ukraine and back to Russia has become a logistical nightmare, and the corpses are being stored in unrefrigerated facilities. This again is a data point against the stories circulating last month of Russian mobile crematoriums, underscoring the fact that this war is awash in propaganda and rumors, and finding hard news on what is going on is very, very tough.
The bolded bit has been denied
https://en.armradio.am/
A large group of Russian invaders on the outskirts of Pervomaisk are moving along the road, when suddenly from behind a small hill they hear a voice shout: "One Ukrainian soldier is better than 10 Russians!"
The Russian commander orders a halt and his 10 best soldiers to go over the hill; a shooting begins, it lasts for a few minutes and stops.
Again a voice: "One Ukrainian soldier is better than 100 Russians!" The Russian commander then sends 100 of his best soldiers. Shooting again, screams, 10 minutes later silence.
The quiet Ukrainian shouts again: "One Ukrainian is better than 1,000 Russian soldiers!" The Russian commander sends 1,000 of his fighters over the hill.
The sounds of fighting, grenades, shots are heard. More screams - Silence.
Suddenly, one seriously wounded Russian soldier crawls over the hill and the dying man begs his commander:
"Don't send anyone over there. It's a trap. There are two of them ..."
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/roman-abramovich-suspected-poisoning-ukraine-russia-peace-talks-chelsea-wall-street-journal-b990990.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1648491349
I'll post tweets instead if they seem real , here's one from The Mail
So a thought Occurred to me recently If Putin plays this right He and Russia win in a big way and we lose and lose badly.
See here is the thing if we wont trade with him fine but he can take a large bulk of the worlds natural resources whilst threatening to Nuke anyone who intervenes. He can then take millions or even 10s of millions of slaves for slave labor.
With the backing of India and China 10s of millions of slaves and A hugely significant proportion of the worlds resources Russia wont need trade with us to be prosperous they will be very rich and very powerful.
Further if he starves us of trade for all this we will really struggle and become very poor. Russia will become the dominant super power and be very prosperous where we will wait in ruin for Russia to eventually enslave us. What am I missing here?
also yes I have heard Russia are scaling back military operations in Ukraine after struggling apparently. However Russia are so full of lies how can we be sure? how much resources and slaves do they have control over currently? and even if they do scale back for now it is just for now they can continue at any point.
with regards to the Russian population uprising and over throwing him, I think this is unlikely sure there is some dissent but the majority of the Russian people fully support bringing back the old USSR and fully back Putin.
If we go to world war three we will have the majority of countries on our side sure, However the majority of land mass will be on the other side. Further the majority the of the global population will be on the other side to.
I see dark years ahead.