Hey its not something id recommend doing, just something i find odd....... i truly have never seen someone all in preflop with 8 3, 5 2, 6 3 and the likes in the early stages of this tournament lose.... Will i resort to doing this regulary? No....
I do approach the £1k freeroll with a pump or dump attitude early on and after going out to a 2 3 call to AJ the previous night (he had 4000 chips already in the first level, why try and throw it away?...made a full house the 2 3, yawn), im noticing the true giveaway attempts, im just not seeing lose as per the title of the thread.
So after losing a flip in the first few hands, i only had 730 left, i was on my fone and i was eating tea and had given up... so when dealt this i thought lets try it.... i have neverpushed all in with such a hand when not under any pressure to do so (except huge blinds, no chips, small blind on BB, etc) and have always said i have never seen a giveaway attempt lose... so lets give it a go...
A totally one off occasion. 0.14% to make a full house preflop. In very poor shape versus 10 10. Binksville, Tennessee... what can u say.....
Hey its not something id recommend doing, just something i find odd....... i truly have never seen someone all in preflop with 8 3, 5 2, 6 3 and the likes in the early stages of this tournament lose.... Will i resort to doing this regulary? No....
You would have to be an idiot not to get those hands in preflop if they never lose.
Ive never seen one lose. Ive done it once and hit a 0.14% chance FH. That is my experience, though you dont see it every tournament or every day.
If anyone has one to post where it lost, once again your welcome to put it up! Its only likely to happen in the £1k freeroll, as its literally low blinds with an inexplicable all in preflop... and has to be ultra no hand, 2 low cards and the initial stages.
I just find it interesting that ive never seen one lose, though ive probably only seen it happen 20 times as its quite a niche thing.
I make the money as often as i dont, so i dont feel the need to waste my entries seeing if i can continue the trend. You just would think when you see the giveaway attempt, the odd one would lose.
Q for you, Wad: Let's assume when a player open jams trash for tons of big blinds, they have an average of 25% equity when called. What is the chance of there being 20 consecutive occurrences of the 25% winning?
You ever read "Scar Tissue", the Antony Keidis autobiography?
Fabulous read, though how he's still alive I have no idea, done more hardcore drugs than enough. His whole life is a cycle of addiction & rehab, rinse repeat.
Q for you, Wad: Let's assume when a player open jams trash for tons of big blinds, they have an average of 25% equity when called. What is the chance of there being 20 consecutive occurrences of the 25% winning?
Hey great flop for heads up play in the £20gntd.... and hes calling flop too (94.27%, likely to win hi, 85.5% scoop)... surely he cant hit 2 non spade runners? He often chases a nut low from a 2 hi card flop, its in my notes (still 85% for hi even on turn and he cant think his lows going to be any good if he hits it)... so the shove looks like it can only be hes managed to hit his nut low...... no just another silly perfect 2... (cue 'you played it bad' blah blah) ...cost me the tourn....
And to rub salt in the wound.... can i get back into this with a 3 quarter.... looks very good.... ahhh 6% river gives him the 3 quarter instead.... top heads up then, thank u!
You ever read "Scar Tissue", the Antony Keidis autobiography?
Fabulous read, though how he's still alive I have no idea, done more hardcore drugs than enough. His whole life is a cycle of addiction & rehab, rinse repeat.
never read it, i will add it to my christmas wish list......like most of the great artists, crazy as ****!
I can help you. Almost everybody else here will be able to do this in 3 seconds on a calculator or via Google
The odds of a 25% chance winning 20 times consecutively is 1 in 4 to the power 20. In other words, 1 in 4*4*4*4*4*4*4*4*4*4*4*4*4*4*4*4*4*4*4*4. That's over one trillion to one. Given these enormous odds, we then need to figure out what's more likely:
1. Your observation this this happened is accurate. Sky software therefore has a fundamental flaw, which you would have to be insane not to exploit for thousands of pounds.
If id seen one lose, id definitely remember it.... as anyone whos sat with me knows i like to use the chat box on such play and i would put up 'i wish someone would give me their chips for free'..... but its always a comment relating to a 8 3 win.... so ... it just appears to be incredible odds.....
As i have always said, its up to the individual to decipher the information that the results are telling you.... as for your comments on everyone being able to do the maths, i honestly dont feel the need to work out the odds on such giveaway attempts.
I use maths to make my poker decisions, but the exact maths of such things as the above is irrelevant to me. Just what im seeing and knowing its not really possible is all i need to know.... as i said, anyone can post a hand from the £1k freeroll where such hands have lost, but no-ones managed to come up with one.. so ....
Drawing a little thin after the flop sir? No problem in the special promo tournament.... 97.47% likely to win flop..... maybe im just mega unlucky.....
Its just the daily constant stream of sub 10% river losses, many hovering around the 3 out, 6% mark.... that says to me, this cant happen in the real world.... every day, at an unrelenting rate....
Some of you are mega into the maths, yet are saying im some kind of imbecile for bringing it up... clearly, your games are somewhat different.....
I would define a giveaway attempt precisely as the first hand showin in this thread. He has no high hand at all and has a very poor low hand... he raises me, wants it all in and he doesnt care.
Explains itself, as anyone fool can see he cant possibly think hes ahead in anything there.
Comments
If anyone has one to post where it lost, once again your welcome to put it up! Its only likely to happen in the £1k freeroll, as its literally low blinds with an inexplicable all in preflop... and has to be ultra no hand, 2 low cards and the initial stages.
I just find it interesting that ive never seen one lose, though ive probably only seen it happen 20 times as its quite a niche thing.
I make the money as often as i dont, so i dont feel the need to waste my entries seeing if i can continue the trend. You just would think when you see the giveaway attempt, the odd one would lose.
Just a point and observation.
@green_beer
Ha, yes, & my favourite RHCP track of all time.
You ever read "Scar Tissue", the Antony Keidis autobiography?
Fabulous read, though how he's still alive I have no idea, done more hardcore drugs than enough. His whole life is a cycle of addiction & rehab, rinse repeat.
Why dont u just tell us......
I can help you. Almost everybody else here will be able to do this in 3 seconds on a calculator or via Google
The odds of a 25% chance winning 20 times consecutively is 1 in 4 to the power 20. In other words, 1 in 4*4*4*4*4*4*4*4*4*4*4*4*4*4*4*4*4*4*4*4. That's over one trillion to one. Given these enormous odds, we then need to figure out what's more likely:
1. Your observation this this happened is accurate. Sky software therefore has a fundamental flaw, which you would have to be insane not to exploit for thousands of pounds.
2. You have a bad case of confirmation bias.
3. You are grossly exaggerating what you've seen.
4. Some combination of 3 and 4.
As i have always said, its up to the individual to decipher the information that the results are telling you.... as for your comments on everyone being able to do the maths, i honestly dont feel the need to work out the odds on such giveaway attempts.
I use maths to make my poker decisions, but the exact maths of such things as the above is irrelevant to me. Just what im seeing and knowing its not really possible is all i need to know.... as i said, anyone can post a hand from the £1k freeroll where such hands have lost, but no-ones managed to come up with one.. so ....
Some of you are mega into the maths, yet are saying im some kind of imbecile for bringing it up... clearly, your games are somewhat different.....
I doubt anyone is actually trying to giveaway their money
Ps You are an imbecile
Explains itself, as anyone fool can see he cant possibly think hes ahead in anything there. Yes very clever.... he can giveaway all his chips, no difference..... tedious