I'm staggered & very disappointed that Jenrick has gone favourite, & I can't understand why, pretty sure Cleverly went favourite after his speech was very favourably received the other day at Conference. He's the pick of a very poor bunch IMO.
But, as you note, the betting markets rarely get these things wrong.
I'm staggered & very disappointed that Jenrick has gone favourite, & I can't understand why, pretty sure Cleverly went favourite after his speech was very favourably received the other day at Conference. He's the pick of a very poor bunch IMO.
But, as you note, the betting markets rarely get these things wrong.
Reason is simple. And rather sad.
When it gets to the Final 2, it is not MPs that decide. It is the Members. Average age about 109. Average politics-just to the Right of Mussolini.
We have the unedifying prospect of supporters of Jenrick and Badenoch trying to knock the other out by getting to the final 2 with an easy win v Cleverly.
This is exactly what happened between supporters of Truss and Mordaunt knowing they would get the Member vote v Sunak.
And we all know how that turned out.
PS. I agree that Cleverly is the best candidate. But he has a major problem. He is too much like Sunak. Or Gordon Brown. In that he is an excellent part of a Senior Management Team. But not its Leader.
"PS. I agree that Cleverly is the best candidate. But he has a major problem. He is too much like Sunak. Or Gordon Brown. In that he is an excellent part of a Senior Management Team. But not its Leader."
The problem, of course, partly because of what you already alluded to, is that there is not a natural Leader amongst the final four.
"PS. I agree that Cleverly is the best candidate. But he has a major problem. He is too much like Sunak. Or Gordon Brown. In that he is an excellent part of a Senior Management Team. But not its Leader."
The problem, of course, partly because of what you already alluded to, is that there is not a natural Leader amongst the final four.
What a mess.
Indeed what a mess.
Just paving the way for the indisputable tow rag Farage to ply his trade IMHO.
"PS. I agree that Cleverly is the best candidate. But he has a major problem. He is too much like Sunak. Or Gordon Brown. In that he is an excellent part of a Senior Management Team. But not its Leader."
The problem, of course, partly because of what you already alluded to, is that there is not a natural Leader amongst the final four.
What a mess.
Indeed what a mess.
Just paving the way for the indisputable tow rag Firage to ply his trade IMHO.
Agreed. Nature abhors a vacuum, & Farage will fill the gap. Imagine, a racist leader over here, & if Trump were to win next month, a racist leader in the USA. It does not bear thinking about.
I'm staggered & very disappointed that Jenrick has gone favourite, & I can't understand why, pretty sure Cleverly went favourite after his speech was very favourably received the other day at Conference. He's the pick of a very poor bunch IMO.
But, as you note, the betting markets rarely get these things wrong.
Reason is simple. And rather sad.
When it gets to the Final 2, it is not MPs that decide. It is the Members. Average age about 109. Average politics-just to the Right of Mussolini.
We have the unedifying prospect of supporters of Jenrick and Badenoch trying to knock the other out by getting to the final 2 with an easy win v Cleverly.
This is exactly what happened between supporters of Truss and Mordaunt knowing they would get the Member vote v Sunak.
And we all know how that turned out.
PS. I agree that Cleverly is the best candidate. But he has a major problem. He is too much like Sunak. Or Gordon Brown. In that he is an excellent part of a Senior Management Team. But not its Leader.
James Cleverly leaps ahead of Robert Jenrick for the first time
Unless there has been some sort of deal, Cleverly should be way longer odds than that. He looks nailed on to be 2nd to me...
He definitely gets to the final two?
Of course he does. He will be the only Centrist once Tugendhat goes. The Right vote amongst MPs gets split between the other 2. Then the Members vote for the remaining Nutter.
Unless there has been some sort of deal, Cleverly should be way longer odds than that. He looks nailed on to be 2nd to me...
He definitely gets to the final two?
Of course he does. He will be the only Centrist once Tugendhat goes. The Right vote amongst MPs gets split between the other 2. Then the Members vote for the remaining Nutter.
Unless there has been some sort of deal, Cleverly should be way longer odds than that. He looks nailed on to be 2nd to me...
He definitely gets to the final two?
Of course he does. He will be the only Centrist once Tugendhat goes. The Right vote amongst MPs gets split between the other 2. Then the Members vote for the remaining Nutter.
Do you think Jenrick definitely wins then?
No. Jenrick is likely 1st or 3rd. As is Badenoch.
That is why that Mail article you posted at 09:16 was pretending to be pro-Cleverly. While actually being pro-Badenoch.
Unless there has been some sort of deal, Cleverly should be way longer odds than that. He looks nailed on to be 2nd to me...
He definitely gets to the final two?
Of course he does. He will be the only Centrist once Tugendhat goes. The Right vote amongst MPs gets split between the other 2. Then the Members vote for the remaining Nutter.
Do you think Jenrick definitely wins then?
No. Jenrick is likely 1st or 3rd. As is Badenoch.
That is why that Mail article you posted at 09:16 was pretending to be pro-Cleverly. While actually being pro-Badenoch.
Badenoch was apparently the favourite amongst Tory members only a few weeks ago. Yet the odds seem to suggest that she is unlikely to make the final two. Based on the odds you surely have to think the final two will be Jenrick, and Cleverly.
If he establishes a big enough lead over the other 2 in either the Final 4 or Final 3, it is possible that either of the other 2 could break ranks and throw their weight behind him.
If he establishes a big enough lead over the other 2 in either the Final 4 or Final 3, it is possible that either of the other 2 could break ranks and throw their weight behind him.
It will be interesting when they get down to three. The MPs votes are almost equally split between the right, and the centre. Assuming Tugendhat goes out, and Cleverly get the majority of his votes, he becomes nailed on for the final two. It is unclear whether the MPs will choose Jenrick or Badenoch. Although the odds suggest Jenrick. Winners of general elections, apparently come from the centre ground.
If this goes to a Member vote, Cleverly is 2nd favourite by a wide margin. So-what do the Bookies know that we don't?
Cleverly is mid-50s. The other 2 are early 40s-plenty of time for either to be the next leader but 1.
Both of them need Cleverly were they to win. Got to have the leader of the other wing in. Whereas Cleverly would only need Jenrick or Badenoch. And if the winner was 1 of the other 2, might not need the other.
Jenrick and Badenoch have more to lose than Cleverly. Coming 3rd, or being the less favoured under Cleverly, might mean the end of their political careers.
I think if 1 of them is going to be a clear 3rd, it is even money they support Cleverly. And I think the bookies think exactly the same.
If this goes to a Member vote, Cleverly is 2nd favourite by a wide margin. So-what do the Bookies know that we don't?
Cleverly is mid-50s. The other 2 are early 40s-plenty of time for either to be the next leader but 1.
Both of them need Cleverly were they to win. Got to have the leader of the other wing in. Whereas Cleverly would only need Jenrick or Badenoch. And if the winner was 1 of the other 2, might not need the other.
Jenrick and Badenoch have more to lose than Cleverly. Coming 3rd, or being the less favoured under Cleverly, might mean the end of their political careers.
I think if 1 of them is going to be a clear 3rd, it is even money they support Cleverly. And I think the bookies think exactly the same.
I understand, but the MPs will decide who comes third out of Jenrick, and Badenoch. They will probably be able to determine this before the vote takes place, unless it is going to be extremely close. If it was obvious do you think that the one that is destined to finished third might drop out, to save face?
If this goes to a Member vote, Cleverly is 2nd favourite by a wide margin. So-what do the Bookies know that we don't?
Cleverly is mid-50s. The other 2 are early 40s-plenty of time for either to be the next leader but 1.
Both of them need Cleverly were they to win. Got to have the leader of the other wing in. Whereas Cleverly would only need Jenrick or Badenoch. And if the winner was 1 of the other 2, might not need the other.
Jenrick and Badenoch have more to lose than Cleverly. Coming 3rd, or being the less favoured under Cleverly, might mean the end of their political careers.
I think if 1 of them is going to be a clear 3rd, it is even money they support Cleverly. And I think the bookies think exactly the same.
I understand, but the MPs will decide who comes third out of Jenrick, and Badenoch. They will probably be able to determine this before the vote takes place, unless it is going to be extremely close. If it was obvious do you think that the one that is destined to finished third might drop out, to save face?
Just dropping out would not impact the odds. And, unless I am missing something, Cleverly is 6/1 to win the Members vote. Not 6/4.
Which makes me believe that there is a very real chance that a "unity" candidate emerges, and no Member vote takes place. And the easiest way for that to happen is for Cleverly to offer jobs in the Shadow Cabinet to 1 or both the other 2.
If this goes to a Member vote, Cleverly is 2nd favourite by a wide margin. So-what do the Bookies know that we don't?
Cleverly is mid-50s. The other 2 are early 40s-plenty of time for either to be the next leader but 1.
Both of them need Cleverly were they to win. Got to have the leader of the other wing in. Whereas Cleverly would only need Jenrick or Badenoch. And if the winner was 1 of the other 2, might not need the other.
Jenrick and Badenoch have more to lose than Cleverly. Coming 3rd, or being the less favoured under Cleverly, might mean the end of their political careers.
I think if 1 of them is going to be a clear 3rd, it is even money they support Cleverly. And I think the bookies think exactly the same.
I understand, but the MPs will decide who comes third out of Jenrick, and Badenoch. They will probably be able to determine this before the vote takes place, unless it is going to be extremely close. If it was obvious do you think that the one that is destined to finished third might drop out, to save face?
Just dropping out would not impact the odds. And, unless I am missing something, Cleverly is 6/1 to win the Members vote. Not 6/4.
Which makes me believe that there is a very real chance that a "unity" candidate emerges, and no Member vote takes place. And the easiest way for that to happen is for Cleverly to offer jobs in the Shadow Cabinet to 1 or both the other 2.
We will have to wait and see. Althiough it is hard to imagine that Jenrick, and Badenoch, would both give up as they are apparently both more popular with the Tory members than Cleverly. So you would have to assume that whichever one of them gets to the final two will win. Although the odds suggest that it doesnt get to the Tory members. If Labour had got off to a good start, you might think that either or both of them might conclude that they might benefit from being the next leader but one, as they are both younger candidates. That is not the case, and the Budget is unlikely to improve Labours popularity. The odds are confusing, but the Bookies rarely get it wrong.
If this goes to a Member vote, Cleverly is 2nd favourite by a wide margin. So-what do the Bookies know that we don't?
Cleverly is mid-50s. The other 2 are early 40s-plenty of time for either to be the next leader but 1.
Both of them need Cleverly were they to win. Got to have the leader of the other wing in. Whereas Cleverly would only need Jenrick or Badenoch. And if the winner was 1 of the other 2, might not need the other.
Jenrick and Badenoch have more to lose than Cleverly. Coming 3rd, or being the less favoured under Cleverly, might mean the end of their political careers.
I think if 1 of them is going to be a clear 3rd, it is even money they support Cleverly. And I think the bookies think exactly the same.
I understand, but the MPs will decide who comes third out of Jenrick, and Badenoch. They will probably be able to determine this before the vote takes place, unless it is going to be extremely close. If it was obvious do you think that the one that is destined to finished third might drop out, to save face?
Just dropping out would not impact the odds. And, unless I am missing something, Cleverly is 6/1 to win the Members vote. Not 6/4.
Which makes me believe that there is a very real chance that a "unity" candidate emerges, and no Member vote takes place. And the easiest way for that to happen is for Cleverly to offer jobs in the Shadow Cabinet to 1 or both the other 2.
We will have to wait and see. Althiough it is hard to imagine that Jenrick, and Badenoch, would both give up as they are apparently both more popular with the Tory members than Cleverly. So you would have to assume that whichever one of them gets to the final two will win. Although the odds suggest that it doesnt get to the Tory members. If Labour had got off to a good start, you might think that either or both of them might conclude that they might benefit from being the next leader but one, as they are both younger candidates. That is not the case, and the Budget is unlikely to improve Labours popularity. The odds are confusing, but the Bookies rarely get it wrong.
I agree that it seems unlikely that both would give up. Which is why I am wondering if 1 might be enough.
Labour haven't got off to a good start-but nothing to suggest that an Election is due before 2029.
As we both say, odds are illogical unless there are extra factors at play. Which, in its way, is more interesting than the Tory leadership election itself.
Comments
@HAYSIE
I'm staggered & very disappointed that Jenrick has gone favourite, & I can't understand why, pretty sure Cleverly went favourite after his speech was very favourably received the other day at Conference. He's the pick of a very poor bunch IMO.
But, as you note, the betting markets rarely get these things wrong.
When it gets to the Final 2, it is not MPs that decide. It is the Members. Average age about 109. Average politics-just to the Right of Mussolini.
We have the unedifying prospect of supporters of Jenrick and Badenoch trying to knock the other out by getting to the final 2 with an easy win v Cleverly.
This is exactly what happened between supporters of Truss and Mordaunt knowing they would get the Member vote v Sunak.
And we all know how that turned out.
PS. I agree that Cleverly is the best candidate. But he has a major problem. He is too much like Sunak. Or Gordon Brown. In that he is an excellent part of a Senior Management Team. But not its Leader.
@Essexphil
Agree with this....
"PS. I agree that Cleverly is the best candidate. But he has a major problem. He is too much like Sunak. Or Gordon Brown. In that he is an excellent part of a Senior Management Team. But not its Leader."
The problem, of course, partly because of what you already alluded to, is that there is not a natural Leader amongst the final four.
What a mess.
Indeed what a mess.
Just paving the way for the indisputable tow rag Farage to ply his trade IMHO.
Agreed. Nature abhors a vacuum, & Farage will fill the gap. Imagine, a racist leader over here, & if Trump were to win next month, a racist leader in the USA. It does not bear thinking about.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/james-cleverly-leaps-ahead-of-robert-jenrick-for-the-first-time/ar-AA1rNeXu?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=1d972906ab164cb2b270e18c6c95fb2a&ei=13#fullscreen
Cleverly 6/4
Jenrick 13/8
Badenoch 4/1
Tugendhat 33/1
Unless there has been some sort of deal, Cleverly should be way longer odds than that. He looks nailed on to be 2nd to me...
He will be the only Centrist once Tugendhat goes. The Right vote amongst MPs gets split between the other 2.
Then the Members vote for the remaining Nutter.
That is why that Mail article you posted at 09:16 was pretending to be pro-Cleverly. While actually being pro-Badenoch.
If I remember rightly, every single MP vote had Sunak in 1st.
Every single MP vote until the final 3, had Mordaunt in 2nd.
Members still went for Truss over Sunak.
Yet the odds seem to suggest that she is unlikely to make the final two.
Based on the odds you surely have to think the final two will be Jenrick, and Cleverly.
If he establishes a big enough lead over the other 2 in either the Final 4 or Final 3, it is possible that either of the other 2 could break ranks and throw their weight behind him.
The MPs votes are almost equally split between the right, and the centre.
Assuming Tugendhat goes out, and Cleverly get the majority of his votes, he becomes nailed on for the final two.
It is unclear whether the MPs will choose Jenrick or Badenoch.
Although the odds suggest Jenrick.
Winners of general elections, apparently come from the centre ground.
If this goes to a Member vote, Cleverly is 2nd favourite by a wide margin. So-what do the Bookies know that we don't?
Cleverly is mid-50s. The other 2 are early 40s-plenty of time for either to be the next leader but 1.
Both of them need Cleverly were they to win. Got to have the leader of the other wing in. Whereas Cleverly would only need Jenrick or Badenoch. And if the winner was 1 of the other 2, might not need the other.
Jenrick and Badenoch have more to lose than Cleverly. Coming 3rd, or being the less favoured under Cleverly, might mean the end of their political careers.
I think if 1 of them is going to be a clear 3rd, it is even money they support Cleverly. And I think the bookies think exactly the same.
They will probably be able to determine this before the vote takes place, unless it is going to be extremely close.
If it was obvious do you think that the one that is destined to finished third might drop out, to save face?
Which makes me believe that there is a very real chance that a "unity" candidate emerges, and no Member vote takes place. And the easiest way for that to happen is for Cleverly to offer jobs in the Shadow Cabinet to 1 or both the other 2.
Althiough it is hard to imagine that Jenrick, and Badenoch, would both give up as they are apparently both more popular with the Tory members than Cleverly.
So you would have to assume that whichever one of them gets to the final two will win.
Although the odds suggest that it doesnt get to the Tory members.
If Labour had got off to a good start, you might think that either or both of them might conclude that they might benefit from being the next leader but one, as they are both younger candidates.
That is not the case, and the Budget is unlikely to improve Labours popularity.
The odds are confusing, but the Bookies rarely get it wrong.
Labour haven't got off to a good start-but nothing to suggest that an Election is due before 2029.
As we both say, odds are illogical unless there are extra factors at play. Which, in its way, is more interesting than the Tory leadership election itself.