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Call, Shove, or Fold.
HAYSIE
Member Posts: 36,445
in Poker Chat
This one might be quite interesting.
It is a sat.
4 left.
2 seats.
£198 for third.
Blinds 600/1200.
Stacks after blinds are paid.
UTG 8,200.
Button 10,870.
SB 10,930.
BB 5,940.
You are in the SB with AKo.
UTG folds.
Button raises to 4,800.
So do you call, raise, or fold.
It is a sat.
4 left.
2 seats.
£198 for third.
Blinds 600/1200.
Stacks after blinds are paid.
UTG 8,200.
Button 10,870.
SB 10,930.
BB 5,940.
You are in the SB with AKo.
UTG folds.
Button raises to 4,800.
So do you call, raise, or fold.
Comments
In your spot, & as played, I think I'm jamming.
I can see all the arguments for folding, but I want to put the button in a tough spot & make it his decision. Bear in mind, if the Button is a half-decent player, his range here can be very wide indeed. He CAN have a monster, which would explain the Raise size, but he's more likely to be at it.
I jam & whatever happens I will have no regrets.
In either event, with those stack sizes, call is the worst option of the 3.
It may vary according to how active the players are. For me, in the absence of any extra info it is just (and only just about) a shove. Whereas AQ would be a reluctant fold.
Which shows the power of being first to act in this situation.
call is the worst option of the 3.
Oh yes, I forgot to mention, nothing on earth would make me call here. It's all-in or all-out.
Misty folded.
We all got into a fairly heated argument about a hand similar to this one. I think the only difference was the raise was a bit smaller.
Half of us (including me) said shove. But some of the very best players in that group believed fold was the better option.
The GTO theorists would probably say that is a fold. But it is vital to appreciate that, in the real world, pretty much nobody plays GTO-particularly in sats.
We know that it is next to impossible that the initial raiser plays in a GTO style. Because that size of raise, with that stack size/position, is horrible. Has way more problems than a shove or a min-raise.
Against that, people call shoves way too light in sats like this. In a regular MTT the initial raiser has odds to call with any 2. But ICM implications are totally different at this stage of the sat. So (for example) I would be happier shoving there against a good sat player raiser than a bad one.
Then we have our table image for the initial raiser to consider. Because if we are only shoving with AA/KK or even AA/KK/QQ/AK, he should be folding a lot of hands.
It is a fascinating question.
And I do not think there is a "right" answer. For all that, I'm still shoving-whereas I might well fold to a shove in that spot.
Two £330 Brighton Seats and £198 for 3rd.
I've never seen Wailes (that one) before so don't know his game, but regularly play with Hoff92 and Tina (Karlluke).
For 20 minutes or so it had been SHOVE or FOLD from ALL four of us... and I had managed to get up to 1st with 11.5K from 4th Place and 5K.
Agree with Phil here...
"The GTO theorists would probably say that is a fold. But it is vital to appreciate that, in the real world, pretty much nobody plays GTO-particularly in sats.
We know that it is next to impossible that the initial raiser plays in a GTO style. Because that size of raise, with that stack size/position, is horrible. Has way more problems than a shove or a min-raise."
For instance Misty was arguing that the fold was correct, but would have shoved had it been a BH.
If we had been down to the last 3 with 2 seats and £198 for 3rd..... I would have SHOVED 'coz I would have been happy with the £198 if I LOST .
...... but because there was NOTHING for 4th, I thought the RISK/REWARD wasn't worth it in that situation. I know if I WIN the hand, or Wailes FOLDS, I almost certainly WIN a SEAT .....but if I LOSE the hand...... I win NOTHING
I've not read Dara O'Kierney's (?) book on Satellite Strategy, but anyone who has, or anybody who
regularly contributes to this sort of thread, I'd be very interested to know what other players think or would do.
@HAYSIE 's got so much ££££MONEY it probably doesn't matter to him ..... but it certainly matters to me...... and I was very pleased to WIN a 2nd SPT Brighton Seat 15 minutes after this hand ....so it worked out well for me in the end
...... or as he WON a SEAT too, might bump into him in Brighton
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The point is that the decision has to be made without knowing.
You have to judge whether you made the correct decision in that spot.
Stick a zero on the end of average winnings compared to that group, and you get the picture
Going to be losing a significant amount of money long term when we get this in and get called. Opponent is going to need to fold a huge % of the time to make this okay to get in.
When I commented earlier, I did not know it was a random player. A random is more likely to think in terms of chips rather than ICM, and therefore call.
If (and it is only if) the original raiser calls it is not good for us. My Maths is not good enough to know the value pf our 10.9K chips behind, but it is probably about £230-240. If we double up, it goes up to about £310-320. +£80-ish. Whereas, if we lose, we are down to buttons-we probably lose nearly £200 in value. And AK v any 2 loses (quite a lot of) money with those odds. And there is a real risk we are flipping (or worse)
The reason I love this sort of hand is that no-one is so short that it makes folding or raising easy