I find this really interesting and personally i think the fold here is absolutely correct regardless of the outcome (ie if you had failed to get the seat) Its a crazy raise size which makes me think he won't fold so we lose that equity.
This is an even clearer fold than the AJ off hand Tony posted last week ;-)
Great discussion. I'm learning a lot about satellite play which may come in handy if I ever play one!
I think that the raise size screams that he just wants a fold, a min raise risks either a call or reraise all in, so a bigger raise should get a fold as surely no one shoves there without AA KK and no one calls for 1/2 their stack with anything else (whereas they might call a min raise)? That's my read on Wailes' play.
That means we should be comfortably ahead of Wailes' range as we know he isn't playing optimum satellite poker (or maybe he is, look at the spot he's put you in) HOWEVER AK is AK, although it's a great hand it's not a massive favourite against any two, even against dominated aces it's only 70/30, we are also comfortable and not at risk at this point which leans heavily to a fold, but then give it a couple of orbits and we could be the short stack.
I think for that reason alone it's a fold, but I don't play satellites so I would probably shove, get called by AQ.......and get rivered.
What are you doing up at 5am? Have the household staff even arrived yet?
Does Mrs Enut know you are on a Poker forum at that hour?
I often get up at odd times in order to check that the staff aren't slacking, a previous gardener was caught having a cigarette break at 3.30 am when he thought no one was looking, bad mistake. That's £2 an hour he won't be getting any more, some people don't appreciate a good job opportunity when they get one.
Mrs Enut didn't even wake up, she sleeps soundly in the knowledge that I am keeping her in the manner to which she aspired.
(In all seriousness I couldn't sleep so got up and had a cup of tea, nothing better than reading a few forums to put one back to sleep, although the Sky Poker one is better than most.)
I met @Wailes at the Brighton SPT ..... I was actually sat next to him for an hour on my first table on the first Day, but didn't find out who he was 'til later that day.
I asked him if he remembered the hand..... and indeed he did
...... he said he had Q-Queens (and I have no reason to disbelieve him) ...... and he would have CALLED if I had SHOVED over his x4 RAISE
Glad I didn't
I was hoping to hear from Danny @FeelGroggy too on this one...... any thoughts mate ?
I met @Wailes at the Brighton SPT ..... I was actually sat next to him for an hour on my first table on the first Day, but didn't find out who he was 'til later that day.
I asked him if he remembered the hand..... and indeed he did
...... he said he had Q-Queens (and I have no reason to disbelieve him) ...... and he would have CALLED if I had SHOVED over his x4 RAISE
Glad I didn't
I was hoping to hear from Danny @FeelGroggy too on this one...... any thoughts mate ?
I agree with @chrisdonkb on this one. I don't think AK is far enough ahead of the range I expect to see which will likely be too tight and I don't think they fold once they 4x. The average payout with 4 left is £215 and as chip leader our stack when we fold is likely worth £240-260 range. Lets assume we always win the seat when we win the all in and we always come 4th when we lose, we are risking £250 worth of equity to win £80 more. So we need AK to have over 76% equity vs the jam range for it to make more money calling then folding and AK won't have that. Also I expect to make better decisions when we let the game continue after folding than them so I need even more equity to call it off. If he 2x, maybe even 3x I would jam vs as I expect enough folds to make up for the times we get called.
I met @Wailes at the Brighton SPT ..... I was actually sat next to him for an hour on my first table on the first Day, but didn't find out who he was 'til later that day.
I asked him if he remembered the hand..... and indeed he did
...... he said he had Q-Queens (and I have no reason to disbelieve him) ...... and he would have CALLED if I had SHOVED over his x4 RAISE
Glad I didn't
I was hoping to hear from Danny @FeelGroggy too on this one...... any thoughts mate ?
I agree with @chrisdonkb on this one. I don't think AK is far enough ahead of the range I expect to see which will likely be too tight and I don't think they fold once they 4x. The average payout with 4 left is £215 and as chip leader our stack when we fold is likely worth £240-260 range. Lets assume we always win the seat when we win the all in and we always come 4th when we lose, we are risking £250 worth of equity to win £80 more. So we need AK to have over 76% equity vs the jam range for it to make more money calling then folding and AK won't have that. Also I expect to make better decisions when we let the game continue after folding than them so I need even more equity to call it off. If he 2x, maybe even 3x I would jam vs as I expect enough folds to make up for the times we get called.
Thanks Danny .....and thanks for ALL the input everyone. BIG Help for us all
Comments
Its a crazy raise size which makes me think he won't fold so we lose that equity.
This is an even clearer fold than the AJ off hand Tony posted last week ;-)
I think that the raise size screams that he just wants a fold, a min raise risks either a call or reraise all in, so a bigger raise should get a fold as surely no one shoves there without AA KK and no one calls for 1/2 their stack with anything else (whereas they might call a min raise)? That's my read on Wailes' play.
That means we should be comfortably ahead of Wailes' range as we know he isn't playing optimum satellite poker (or maybe he is, look at the spot he's put you in) HOWEVER AK is AK, although it's a great hand it's not a massive favourite against any two, even against dominated aces it's only 70/30, we are also comfortable and not at risk at this point which leans heavily to a fold, but then give it a couple of orbits and we could be the short stack.
I think for that reason alone it's a fold, but I don't play satellites so I would probably shove, get called by AQ.......and get rivered.
@Enut
What are you doing up at 5am? Have the household staff even arrived yet?
Does Mrs Enut know you are on a Poker forum at that hour?
"Great discussion"
Certainly that, very interesting & enjoyable, & so far we've managed to avoid nutjobs, conspiracy theorists & images of teddy bears.
My only complaint is the contrary opinion posted by @chrisdonkb - what has he ever won?
@Essexphil
Unforch after both you & I replied Mr @HAYSIE then deleted the Post & moved it to a new thread.
Mrs Enut didn't even wake up, she sleeps soundly in the knowledge that I am keeping her in the manner to which she aspired.
(In all seriousness I couldn't sleep so got up and had a cup of tea, nothing better than reading a few forums to put one back to sleep, although the Sky Poker one is better than most.)
I asked him if he remembered the hand..... and indeed he did
...... he said he had Q-Queens (and I have no reason to disbelieve him) ...... and he would have CALLED if I had SHOVED over his x4 RAISE
Glad I didn't
I was hoping to hear from Danny @FeelGroggy too on this one...... any thoughts mate ?
The average payout with 4 left is £215 and as chip leader our stack when we fold is likely worth £240-260 range.
Lets assume we always win the seat when we win the all in and we always come 4th when we lose, we are risking £250 worth of equity to win £80 more. So we need AK to have over 76% equity vs the jam range for it to make more money calling then folding and AK won't have that.
Also I expect to make better decisions when we let the game continue after folding than them so I need even more equity to call it off.
If he 2x, maybe even 3x I would jam vs as I expect enough folds to make up for the times we get called.