I wasn't arguing that the FOLD was Correct....... it's what I felt was right for me to do
If we had been down to the last 3 with 2 seats and £198 for 3rd..... I would have SHOVED 'coz I would have been happy with the £198 if I LOST .
...... but because there was NOTHING for 4th, I thought the RISK/REWARD wasn't worth it in that situation. I know if I WIN the hand, or Wailes FOLDS, I almost certainly WIN a SEAT .....but if I LOSE the hand...... I win NOTHING
I've not read Dara O'Kierney's (?) book on Satellite Strategy, but anyone who has, or anybody who regularly contributes to this sort of thread, I'd be very interested to know what other players think or would do.
@HAYSIE 's got so much ££££MONEY it probably doesn't matter to him ..... but it certainly matters to me...... and I was very pleased to WIN a 2nd SPT Brighton Seat 15 minutes after this hand ....so it worked out well for me in the end
As you folded, presumably you did think that folding was correct.
I did think that for me in that situation.....but I'm certainly not arguing that it was the Correct Decision.
Ok, so you folded, but didnt think it was the correct decision.
I wasn't arguing that the FOLD was Correct....... it's what I felt was right for me to do
If we had been down to the last 3 with 2 seats and £198 for 3rd..... I would have SHOVED 'coz I would have been happy with the £198 if I LOST .
...... but because there was NOTHING for 4th, I thought the RISK/REWARD wasn't worth it in that situation. I know if I WIN the hand, or Wailes FOLDS, I almost certainly WIN a SEAT .....but if I LOSE the hand...... I win NOTHING
I've not read Dara O'Kierney's (?) book on Satellite Strategy, but anyone who has, or anybody who regularly contributes to this sort of thread, I'd be very interested to know what other players think or would do.
@HAYSIE 's got so much ££££MONEY it probably doesn't matter to him ..... but it certainly matters to me...... and I was very pleased to WIN a 2nd SPT Brighton Seat 15 minutes after this hand ....so it worked out well for me in the end
As you folded, presumably you did think that folding was correct.
I did think that for me in that situation.....but I'm certainly not arguing that it was the Correct Decision.
Ok, so you folded, but didnt think it was the cottrct decision.
When you were younger, did you go round in circles chasing your tail ?
I wasn't arguing that the FOLD was Correct....... it's what I felt was right for me to do
If we had been down to the last 3 with 2 seats and £198 for 3rd..... I would have SHOVED 'coz I would have been happy with the £198 if I LOST .
...... but because there was NOTHING for 4th, I thought the RISK/REWARD wasn't worth it in that situation. I know if I WIN the hand, or Wailes FOLDS, I almost certainly WIN a SEAT .....but if I LOSE the hand...... I win NOTHING
I've not read Dara O'Kierney's (?) book on Satellite Strategy, but anyone who has, or anybody who regularly contributes to this sort of thread, I'd be very interested to know what other players think or would do.
@HAYSIE 's got so much ££££MONEY it probably doesn't matter to him ..... but it certainly matters to me...... and I was very pleased to WIN a 2nd SPT Brighton Seat 15 minutes after this hand ....so it worked out well for me in the end
As you folded, presumably you did think that folding was correct.
I did think that for me in that situation.....but I'm certainly not arguing that it was the Correct Decision.
Ok, so you folded, but didnt think it was the cottrct decision.
When you were younger, did you go round in circles chasing your tail ?
No, did you. I just cant believe you would fold if you didnt think it was the correct decision. That would seem silly.
I wasn't arguing that the FOLD was Correct....... it's what I felt was right for me to do
If we had been down to the last 3 with 2 seats and £198 for 3rd..... I would have SHOVED 'coz I would have been happy with the £198 if I LOST .
...... but because there was NOTHING for 4th, I thought the RISK/REWARD wasn't worth it in that situation. I know if I WIN the hand, or Wailes FOLDS, I almost certainly WIN a SEAT .....but if I LOSE the hand...... I win NOTHING
I've not read Dara O'Kierney's (?) book on Satellite Strategy, but anyone who has, or anybody who regularly contributes to this sort of thread, I'd be very interested to know what other players think or would do.
@HAYSIE 's got so much ££££MONEY it probably doesn't matter to him ..... but it certainly matters to me...... and I was very pleased to WIN a 2nd SPT Brighton Seat 15 minutes after this hand ....so it worked out well for me in the end
As you folded, presumably you did think that folding was correct.
I did think that for me in that situation.....but I'm certainly not arguing that it was the Correct Decision.
Ok, so you folded, but didnt think it was the cottrct decision.
When you were younger, did you go round in circles chasing your tail ?
No, did you. I just cant believe you would fold if you didnt think it was the correct decision. That would seem silly.
Think you are being a little unfair there, @HAYSIE
It is 1 of those pivotal hands where, whatever you decide to do, you wonder for the rest of the day whether it was the best decision.
As I've said before....... it was the correct decision in my mind, for me at the time, and in that situation...... and as I managed to WIN a SEAT, it proved to be correct
Whether it is the correct decision or not, I will leave it to much better players to decide, and hopefully comment on here.
It's definitely an interesting hand and situation to discuss
Incidentally, let's briefly look at this from the point of view of the original raiser. As to when he should call the shove. (As opposed to whether he will)
If he folds, his chips are worth roughly £150. If he calls and wins, that double up means his chips are worth about £300. Whereas, if he loses, he is out. £0.
So the question logically boils down to this. Does his hand have a 50%+ chance of winning v someone who 3-bet shoves in that spot? AA. KK. And maybe QQ/AK. That's it. Everything else is a fold.
@Essexphil I agree, it's a good discussion point and good to hear different thought processes.
When you say 'If' the original raiser calls, realistically how often do you think a random player folds here? We already know they aren't a competent satellite player based on what they've done preflop. (Obviously some players do fold some of the time here which is great for us, but i'm not convinced it happens enough to make it profitable for us).
Clearly our risk/reward is terrible as you highlighted in your post, so imo you need a very strong read that the Bu is going to fold a high proportion of these open raises vs the all-in.
To me, this is a spot we can potentially make a massive blunder without solid information on our opponent, and therefore hand money over to the other stacks. As you've already said as well, other players in general aren't likely to play sound theoretical satellite strategy, so to me it seems best to highlight these mistakes and push spots in those areas. Rather than hope our opponent folds here
@Essexphil I agree, it's a good discussion point and good to hear different thought processes.
When you say 'If' the original raiser calls, realistically how often do you think a random player folds here? We already know they aren't a competent satellite player based on what they've done preflop. (Obviously some players do fold some of the time here which is great for us, but i'm not convinced it happens enough to make it profitable for us).
Clearly our risk/reward is terrible as you highlighted in your post, so imo you need a very strong read that the Bu is going to fold a high proportion of these open raises vs the all-in.
To me, this is a spot we can potentially make a massive blunder without solid information on our opponent, and therefore hand money over to the other stacks. As you've already said as well, other players in general aren't likely to play sound theoretical satellite strategy, so to me it seems best to highlight these mistakes and push spots in those areas. Rather than hope our opponent folds here
Likewise.
And this is the exact discussion I had with a fairly famous poker player, who took exactly your line.
My main argument in that discussion was slightly different. In that you gain chips if a good reg puts you on only AA/KK, as you get him to fold AK, JJ and so on. Whereas that does not hold up as well v a relatively inexperienced sat player.
The more I think about this particular spot, I am thinking-
1. I would shove in that spot; and 2. I should fold
I wasn't arguing that the FOLD was Correct....... it's what I felt was right for me to do
If we had been down to the last 3 with 2 seats and £198 for 3rd..... I would have SHOVED 'coz I would have been happy with the £198 if I LOST .
...... but because there was NOTHING for 4th, I thought the RISK/REWARD wasn't worth it in that situation. I know if I WIN the hand, or Wailes FOLDS, I almost certainly WIN a SEAT .....but if I LOSE the hand...... I win NOTHING
I've not read Dara O'Kierney's (?) book on Satellite Strategy, but anyone who has, or anybody who regularly contributes to this sort of thread, I'd be very interested to know what other players think or would do.
@HAYSIE 's got so much ££££MONEY it probably doesn't matter to him ..... but it certainly matters to me...... and I was very pleased to WIN a 2nd SPT Brighton Seat 15 minutes after this hand ....so it worked out well for me in the end
As you folded, presumably you did think that folding was correct.
I did think that for me in that situation.....but I'm certainly not arguing that it was the Correct Decision.
Ok, so you folded, but didnt think it was the cottrct decision.
When you were younger, did you go round in circles chasing your tail ?
No, did you. I just cant believe you would fold if you didnt think it was the correct decision. That would seem silly.
Think you are being a little unfair there, @HAYSIE
It is 1 of those pivotal hands where, whatever you decide to do, you wonder for the rest of the day whether it was the best decision.
We were arguing about this before I put it on the forum. I was merely pointing out that it was difficult to argue something that wasnt what you did when you played the hand. He could of course have changed his mind later, something that we have all done, but he wasnt arguing that either. It has opened my eyes, listening to other points of view, but not changed my mind.
I wasn't arguing that the FOLD was Correct....... it's what I felt was right for me to do
If we had been down to the last 3 with 2 seats and £198 for 3rd..... I would have SHOVED 'coz I would have been happy with the £198 if I LOST .
...... but because there was NOTHING for 4th, I thought the RISK/REWARD wasn't worth it in that situation. I know if I WIN the hand, or Wailes FOLDS, I almost certainly WIN a SEAT .....but if I LOSE the hand...... I win NOTHING
I've not read Dara O'Kierney's (?) book on Satellite Strategy, but anyone who has, or anybody who regularly contributes to this sort of thread, I'd be very interested to know what other players think or would do.
@HAYSIE 's got so much ££££MONEY it probably doesn't matter to him ..... but it certainly matters to me...... and I was very pleased to WIN a 2nd SPT Brighton Seat 15 minutes after this hand ....so it worked out well for me in the end
As you folded, presumably you did think that folding was correct.
I did think that for me in that situation.....but I'm certainly not arguing that it was the Correct Decision.
Ok, so you folded, but didnt think it was the cottrct decision.
When you were younger, did you go round in circles chasing your tail ?
No, did you. I just cant believe you would fold if you didnt think it was the correct decision. That would seem silly.
Think you are being a little unfair there, @HAYSIE
It is 1 of those pivotal hands where, whatever you decide to do, you wonder for the rest of the day whether it was the best decision.
We were arguing about this before I put it on the forum.
.......ARGUING
..... I responded once with this, before Tony put it up on the Forum .....
Morning
Time and a Place in Sat's .....especially with so much at stake.
I didn't have to play it, and I could wait for a better spot. With a BIG Raise like that, he's obviously got a BIG hand, and although he maybe doesn't want a CALL.... If he's got A-Aces or K-K's Q-Q's I could well go out, when I don't have to.
Time and a Place in Sat's .....especially with so much at stake.
I didn't have to play it, and I could wait for a better spot. With a BIG Raise like that, he's obviously got a BIG hand, and although he maybe doesn't want a CALL.... If he's got A-Aces or K-K's Q-Q's I could well go out, when I don't have to.
@Essexphil I agree, it's a good discussion point and good to hear different thought processes.
When you say 'If' the original raiser calls, realistically how often do you think a random player folds here? We already know they aren't a competent satellite player based on what they've done preflop. (Obviously some players do fold some of the time here which is great for us, but i'm not convinced it happens enough to make it profitable for us).
Clearly our risk/reward is terrible as you highlighted in your post, so imo you need a very strong read that the Bu is going to fold a high proportion of these open raises vs the all-in.
To me, this is a spot we can potentially make a massive blunder without solid information on our opponent, and therefore hand money over to the other stacks. As you've already said as well, other players in general aren't likely to play sound theoretical satellite strategy, so to me it seems best to highlight these mistakes and push spots in those areas. Rather than hope our opponent folds here
Likewise.
And this is the exact discussion I had with a fairly famous poker player, who took exactly your line.
My main argument in that discussion was slightly different. In that you gain chips if a good reg puts you on only AA/KK, as you get him to fold AK, JJ and so on. Whereas that does not hold up as well v a relatively inexperienced sat player.
The more I think about this particular spot, I am thinking-
1. I would shove in that spot; and 2. I should fold
I am aware that my reasoning is not a strong suit. I am also aware that my decision maybe coloured by the number of times I have been progressing nicely in say a Major semi, and a seat looks on the cards. Only to find myself 20 minutes later, shoving out of the small blind with Q5, and wished I had shoved earlier when I had a decent hand.
The things that struck me about this that I dont think have been mentioned yet. Firstly the two leaders have just over 9 bigs. Nicking the blinds increases their stacks by almost 20%. The raiser is one of the leaders, and on the button. Therefore couldnt you put him on quite a wide range. I realise that for every bluff there is a double bluff. So if you argued that if he had a monster isnt he more likely to min raise? You can turn that around and say he bet 3 bigs to disguise his monster. Nine bigs is not a lot if you have a couple of circuits with no cards. And not much if you get reraised off a pot. There is not much margin for error. That is why I am shoving in that spot, with the best unpaired hand.
@Essexphil I agree, it's a good discussion point and good to hear different thought processes.
When you say 'If' the original raiser calls, realistically how often do you think a random player folds here? We already know they aren't a competent satellite player based on what they've done preflop. (Obviously some players do fold some of the time here which is great for us, but i'm not convinced it happens enough to make it profitable for us).
Clearly our risk/reward is terrible as you highlighted in your post, so imo you need a very strong read that the Bu is going to fold a high proportion of these open raises vs the all-in.
To me, this is a spot we can potentially make a massive blunder without solid information on our opponent, and therefore hand money over to the other stacks. As you've already said as well, other players in general aren't likely to play sound theoretical satellite strategy, so to me it seems best to highlight these mistakes and push spots in those areas. Rather than hope our opponent folds here
Likewise.
And this is the exact discussion I had with a fairly famous poker player, who took exactly your line.
My main argument in that discussion was slightly different. In that you gain chips if a good reg puts you on only AA/KK, as you get him to fold AK, JJ and so on. Whereas that does not hold up as well v a relatively inexperienced sat player.
The more I think about this particular spot, I am thinking-
1. I would shove in that spot; and 2. I should fold
I am aware that my reasoning is not a strong suit. I am also aware that my decision maybe coloured by the number of times I have been progressing nicely in say a Major semi, and a seat looks on the cards. Only to find myself 20 minutes later, shoving out of the small blind with Q5, and wished I had shoved earlier when I had a decent hand.
The things that struck me about this that I dont think have been mentioned yet. Firstly the two leaders have just over 9 bigs. Nicking the blinds increases their stacks by almost 20%. The raiser is one of the leaders, and on the button. Therefore couldnt you put him on quite a wide range. I realise that for every bluff there is a double bluff. So if you argued that if he had a monster isnt he more likely to min raise? You can turn that around and say he bet 3 bigs to disguise his monster. Nine bigs is not a lot if you have a couple of circuits with no cards. And not much if you get reraised off a pot. There is not much margin for error. That is why I am shoving in that spot, with the best unpaired hand.
ps. I can also see why a better player might fold.
Comments
I just cant believe you would fold if you didnt think it was the correct decision.
That would seem silly.
It is 1 of those pivotal hands where, whatever you decide to do, you wonder for the rest of the day whether it was the best decision.
Whether it is the correct decision or not, I will leave it to much better players to decide, and hopefully comment on here.
It's definitely an interesting hand and situation to discuss
If he folds, his chips are worth roughly £150. If he calls and wins, that double up means his chips are worth about £300. Whereas, if he loses, he is out. £0.
So the question logically boils down to this. Does his hand have a 50%+ chance of winning v someone who 3-bet shoves in that spot? AA. KK. And maybe QQ/AK. That's it. Everything else is a fold.
When you say 'If' the original raiser calls, realistically how often do you think a random player folds here? We already know they aren't a competent satellite player based on what they've done preflop. (Obviously some players do fold some of the time here which is great for us, but i'm not convinced it happens enough to make it profitable for us).
Clearly our risk/reward is terrible as you highlighted in your post, so imo you need a very strong read that the Bu is going to fold a high proportion of these open raises vs the all-in.
To me, this is a spot we can potentially make a massive blunder without solid information on our opponent, and therefore hand money over to the other stacks. As you've already said as well, other players in general aren't likely to play sound theoretical satellite strategy, so to me it seems best to highlight these mistakes and push spots in those areas. Rather than hope our opponent folds here
And this is the exact discussion I had with a fairly famous poker player, who took exactly your line.
My main argument in that discussion was slightly different. In that you gain chips if a good reg puts you on only AA/KK, as you get him to fold AK, JJ and so on. Whereas that does not hold up as well v a relatively inexperienced sat player.
The more I think about this particular spot, I am thinking-
1. I would shove in that spot; and
2. I should fold
I was merely pointing out that it was difficult to argue something that wasnt what you did when you played the hand.
He could of course have changed his mind later, something that we have all done, but he wasnt arguing that either.
It has opened my eyes, listening to other points of view, but not changed my mind.
BIGGER one for me in SPT Sat.....just !!
4 of us left........2 Seats and £198 for 3rd
Me and Wailes are just under 11K (virtually the same stacks).....Hoff 8200 and Tina (Karlluke) 6,000
I went down to 4th at one point with less than 4,000 chips
...... but came good in the End
Wailes 21010 1 SPT Mystery Bounty Seat
MISTY4ME 17990 2 SPT Mystery Bounty Seat
Well done.
Not sure why you folded the AK.
Morning
Time and a Place in Sat's .....especially with so much at stake.
I didn't have to play it, and I could wait for a better spot. With a BIG Raise like that, he's obviously got a BIG hand, and although he maybe doesn't want a CALL.... If he's got A-Aces or K-K's Q-Q's I could well go out, when I don't have to.
In a Tourney I'm SHOVING all day long
GOOD LUCK for today.
That's how you play them......and maybe why I've twice seen you go out of Semi's with 7-7 when you had a seat virtually Guaranteed.
I wanted to make sure I WON at least £198 .....so I let one of the others get KO'd before I put my Tourney Life at Risk.
Maybe it's because you play so many Bounty Hunters that you would SHOVE, (as I would too) if it was a Bounty Hunter .....but it wasn't.
I might put it up for discussion on your Call or Fold thread. It will definitely be interesting to see what the consensus of opinion is.
I was shoving in that spot.
Its already up.
I am also aware that my decision maybe coloured by the number of times I have been progressing nicely in say a Major semi, and a seat looks on the cards.
Only to find myself 20 minutes later, shoving out of the small blind with Q5, and wished I had shoved earlier when I had a decent hand.
The things that struck me about this that I dont think have been mentioned yet.
Firstly the two leaders have just over 9 bigs.
Nicking the blinds increases their stacks by almost 20%.
The raiser is one of the leaders, and on the button.
Therefore couldnt you put him on quite a wide range.
I realise that for every bluff there is a double bluff.
So if you argued that if he had a monster isnt he more likely to min raise?
You can turn that around and say he bet 3 bigs to disguise his monster.
Nine bigs is not a lot if you have a couple of circuits with no cards.
And not much if you get reraised off a pot.
There is not much margin for error.
That is why I am shoving in that spot, with the best unpaired hand.