It's still not clear what you're asking but I'll explain what I'm answering and I'm sure you let me know if I have misunderstood.
Given that you have been dealt AK, the probability of another playing being dealt AA are: 5 * 3/50 * 2/49 which is about 80 to 1.
Given that you have been dealt AK, the probability of another playing being dealt AA or KK are: 5 * 2 * 3/50 * 2/49 which is about 40 to 1 as we said earlier.
For them to have AA and the flop to come A high (given that you have AK) the probability is: 5 * 3/50 * 2/49 * 3 * 1/48 which is about 1306 to 1.
For them to have AA and the flop to come A or K high (given that you have AK) the probability is roughly: 5 * 3/50 * 2/49 * 4 * 3 * 1/48 which is about 326 to 1.
For them to have AA or KK and the flop to come A or K high (given that you have AK) the probability is roughly: 5 * 2 * 3/50 * 2/49 * 4 * 3 * 1/48 which is about 162 to 1.
Your third option is rather odd (not mathematically but poker-wise) since the difference between you flopping an ace against KK is obviously massively different to flopping a king.
lol, I know Vince is an exceptional mathematician, and far in advance of anything I could achieve, so I don't want to contradict anything he says...
What if the first person is dealt an A or K and a random card? The odds are now decreased for the rest of the players. Or, is that negated by the fact that if the first person is NOT dealt an A or K, the odds of someone picking up aces or kings is now higher? I'm truly curious, because although I'm a decent mathematician, calculating things like this are far beyond my capabilities.
It's still not clear what you're asking but I'll explain what I'm answering and I'm sure you let me know if I have misunderstood. Given that you have been dealt AK, the probability of another playing being dealt AA are: 5 * 3/50 * 2/49 which is about 80 to 1. Given that you have been dealt AK, the probability of another playing being dealt AA or KK are: 5 * 2 * 3/50 * 2/49 which is about 40 to 1 as we said earlier. For them to have AA and the flop to come A high (given that you have AK) the probability is: 5 * 3/50 * 2/49 * 3 * 1/48 which is about 1306 to 1. For them to have AA and the flop to come A or K high (given that you have AK) the probability is roughly: 5 * 3/50 * 2/49 * 4 * 3 * 1/48 which is about 326 to 1. For them to have AA or KK and the flop to come A or K high (given that you have AK) the probability is roughly: 5 * 2 * 3/50 * 2/49 * 4 * 3 * 1/48 which is about 162 to 1. Your third option is rather odd (not mathematically but poker-wise) since the difference between you flopping an ace against KK is obviously massively different to flopping a king. Posted by MereNovice
i think merenovice is wrong with all of this.... because everytime i watch scotty77 play. when someone has AK on a A high or K high board.. scotty always has top set hahahaahaha
lol, I know Vince is an exceptional mathematician, and far in advance of anything I could achieve, so I don't want to contradict anything he says... What if the first person is dealt an A or K and a random card? The odds are now decreased for the rest of the players. Or, is that negated by the fact that if the first person is NOT dealt an A or K, the odds of someone picking up aces or kings is now higher? I'm truly curious, because although I'm a decent mathematician, calculating things like this are far beyond my capabilities. Posted by DeucesLive
You're too kind.
In answer to your question, yes, the odds are balanced by the odds being altered for subsequent events when the events are not independent.
When calculating probabilities for poker you only consider the known cards.
If you watch TV programs you may have noticed that some programs show different odds for exactly the same draw. This is because some programs only consider the cards of the people still in the hand and some consider all cards that have been discarded by the other players.
Let me try this one, then vince can correct me when I inevitably mess it up. Odds of a single suit (assuming 2 are held) is 11/50 Odds are 11/50*10/49*39/48, then there's 3 combinations of that (suit/suit/off, suit/off/suit, off/suit/suit), so 10.9%? Maybe. Posted by DeucesLive
Hmm... isn't that then lower than a 1/8 chance of 2 cards though... just under a 1/9? Or is the 1/8 including the chance to flop a full flush... or did I miss something?
Hmm... isn't that then lower than a 1/8 chance of 2 cards though... just under a 1/9? Or is the 1/8 including the chance to flop a full flush... or did I miss something? Posted by DeucesLive
In Response to Re: Odds question... : 10.94% is 8.14 to 1. Posted by MereNovice
Is your name really Vince Gough? If so: cool, cool name. Have you cut any ears off yet?
What're the odds on an amatuer like Luther Blisset totally outplaying a sky regular with a total understanding of poker mathematics twice in a row by the way please?
In Response to Re: Odds question... : Is your name really Vince Gough? If so: cool, cool name. Have you cut any ears off yet? What're the odds on an amatuer like Luther Blisset totally outplaying a sky regular with a total understanding of poker mathematics twice in a row by the way please? ;-) Posted by bandini
In Response to Re: Odds question... : a) Yes b) No c) Slim :-))) Posted by MereNovice
:-)
a) Don't know your parents, but like them b) Absinthe is now legal. Get to it man! Drank 3/4s a bottle of it one night. Wow. c) Was in absolute stitches at the way the aces got cracked. Only just caught him beating you again. Not sure what happened that time. Kudos to you for being amused by it too. I'd be the same in your position. You've just got to laugh sometimes.
I forget the second hand but there was a third one that didn't get shown. One of them was AK < KQ aipf, I think. Posted by MereNovice
He beat you three times???!!! Sorry man, but I'm genuinely laughing. Seemed a lovely man but it was quite obvious he didn't have much a clue of what he was doing. Unless, of course, it's a style that's beyond my intelligence. It's more than possible.
Think it might have been AK losing to KQ I just caught the end of.
Surprised there hasn't been a thread dedicated to it. I'll say nothing. Or have I already? Hmmm.
Comments
Ok...
1) .... I have been dealt AK, raised, been 3 bet on the button (by aces), nd I call... what r the chances of me flopping top pair?
2) 2, as above, but change top pair, for "an ace"?
EDIT - sry if u have started replying.....
3) -I have AK, - the chances of someone else having KK or AA, AND the flop coming ace or king high?
Is that even possible to work out? - too many variables?
Given that you have been dealt AK, the probability of another playing being dealt AA are:
5 * 3/50 * 2/49 which is about 80 to 1.
Given that you have been dealt AK, the probability of another playing being dealt AA or KK are:
5 * 2 * 3/50 * 2/49 which is about 40 to 1 as we said earlier.
For them to have AA and the flop to come A high (given that you have AK) the probability is:
5 * 3/50 * 2/49 * 3 * 1/48 which is about 1306 to 1.
For them to have AA and the flop to come A or K high (given that you have AK) the probability is roughly:
5 * 3/50 * 2/49 * 4 * 3 * 1/48 which is about 326 to 1.
For them to have AA or KK and the flop to come A or K high (given that you have AK) the probability is roughly:
5 * 2 * 3/50 * 2/49 * 4 * 3 * 1/48 which is about 162 to 1.
Your third option is rather odd (not mathematically but poker-wise) since the difference between you flopping an ace against KK is obviously massively different to flopping a king.
What if the first person is dealt an A or K and a random card? The odds are now decreased for the rest of the players. Or, is that negated by the fact that if the first person is NOT dealt an A or K, the odds of someone picking up aces or kings is now higher? I'm truly curious, because although I'm a decent mathematician, calculating things like this are far beyond my capabilities.
You're too kind.
In answer to your question, yes, the odds are balanced by the odds being altered for subsequent events when the events are not independent.
When calculating probabilities for poker you only consider the known cards.
If you watch TV programs you may have noticed that some programs show different odds for exactly the same draw. This is because some programs only consider the cards of the people still in the hand and some consider all cards that have been discarded by the other players.
Don't forget that you also have a 118 to 1 chance of flopping the flush!
Odds of a single suit (assuming 2 are held) is 11/50
Odds are 11/50*10/49*39/48, then there's 3 combinations of that (suit/suit/off, suit/off/suit, off/suit/suit), so 10.9%? Maybe.
What're the odds on an amatuer like Luther Blisset totally outplaying a sky regular with a total understanding of poker mathematics twice in a row by the way please?
;-)
b) No
c) Slim
:-)))
a) Don't know your parents, but like them
b) Absinthe is now legal. Get to it man! Drank 3/4s a bottle of it one night. Wow.
c) Was in absolute stitches at the way the aces got cracked. Only just caught him beating you again. Not sure what happened that time. Kudos to you for being amused by it too. I'd be the same in your position. You've just got to laugh sometimes.
One of them was AK < KQ aipf, I think.
Think it might have been AK losing to KQ I just caught the end of.
Surprised there hasn't been a thread dedicated to it. I'll say nothing. Or have I already? Hmmm.