The reality is, a competent cash player, playing, say, 6 Tables, will rarely lose on the night, & almost never over a week, or a month. In fact, if he/she is "competent", they will almost NEVER lose over say, 1 month periods, or, say, 5,000 or 10,000 hands. Posted by Tikay10
this is massively wrong, 100k breakeven stretches are not that uncommon for proffessional 6max grinders (maybe not on sky because tbh sky is softer than the vast majority of sites) 20+ buyin downswings will be an almost monthly occurence at nl200+
this is a picture of a variance simulator tool for a winrate of 10bb/100 (that is a very very good winrate in todays games) over 10,000 hands
The reality is, a competent cash player, playing, say, 6 Tables, will rarely lose on the night, & almost never over a week, or a month. In fact, if he/she is "competent", they will almost NEVER lose over say, 1 month periods, or, say, 5,000 or 10,000 hands. Posted by Tikay10
You can go 150k hands breakeven in semi competent games, variance is bigger and more ridiculous than pretty much anyone ever accepts or allows for. There is ALOT of variance in cash poker, there is an INORDINATE amount of variance in tournament poker.
I fear you may be leading these guys up the garden path here. Firstly can I get this one straight, a winning player requires a bankroll, a losing player requires a budget. It's fine for AJS to have a 30 buy-in roll, he's a winning player, Greg, Penguin et al have no idea how they will go, they may well beat nl30 and never look back but what if they don't. Neither you nor they know how long it will take them and how many buy-ins they will lose before they are beating the game. If your starting out give yourself a budget to learn the cash game and if you lose it which you probably will get another one, learning costs money there's just no way round it for the majority of us. Only after you have established yourself as a winning player is it time to consider how much to keep in your bankroll.
IMO nobody should expect to rarely lose on the night, & almost never over a week, or a month, it's unrealistic and will only build false expectations and I include competent cash players playing 6 tables.I recently watched a video were the pro explained how he lost 45% of the cash sessions he played, sure he beat his games for a $300,000 annual profit but within a span of 1m hands he encountered a run of 17,000 hands where he lost 20 buy-ins and another 100,000 hands where he made nothing. Eric lieu won big in the first European Cash game and then lost heavily in the second one is he not competent? Durrrr's swings are unreal as are many of the top cash pro's, even the great Dane Gus Hanson lost $5m in 2009 on FT, but won $1.3m in one month alone in 2010. Why would us mere mortals be any different especially when we are starting out.
Stating that in Cash Poker variance is massively less than Tourney Poker is IMO foolhardy as it gives the impression that cash poker is a safer option v tourneys. At NL50 you could lose four buy-ins in a couple of minutes, four days of Primo entry fees, rinse and repeat for a week and your down 28 Primo entries, how big was your budget? Stacks can be won & lost at an alarming rate and it's not a rare occurrence, you have to be able to deal with this and its not easy, confidence can be washed away as quickly as your bankroll/budget. Honestly I have sat at the tables thinking I have absolutely no idea how to play the game (yes scotty77 I know you agree) after taking a sustained run of lost flips, missed draws, continuous coolers and unreal beats ,more than enough to destroy a 30 buy-in roll. Trust me there is plenty of variance in cash poker and when your on the wrong side of it its expensive and no joke.
I hope you all run good, well at least until your sat at my table.
Honestly I have sat at the tables thinking I have absolutely no idea how to play the game (yes scotty77 I know you agree) after taking a sustained run of lost flips, missed draws, continuous coolers and unreal beats
I think most of us have been here at some stage in our poker careers irrespective of whether we mainly play cash or tournies
AJS doesn't have a 30BI roll. He just keeps that amount in his account at anyone time. I wouldn't be surprised if his actual roll has a zero at the end of it. And to compare Durr etc to a low stakes 6 max grinder is lol. A 6 max grinder is never gonna get into half the tricky spots that Durr is gonna be in. But yeah to expect NOT to have a losing week/month is very unrealistic. I have absolutely no idea how to play the game (yes scotty77 I know you agree) lolllllllllll. nah mate...60nine60 is probably the only reg I think that of tbf ) Posted by scotty77
i dont think the first bit is correct. he says the money in his poker account is his roll, the money in his bank is his money he lives on. he said if he lost say 10 buyin he would just drop down stakes and rebuild rather than deposit. although what he would do if he did his whole roll is different.
My poker gods Scotty we agree on at least one thing....But yeah to expect NOT to have a losing week/month is very unrealistic.
I was using Durrrr for the reasons i am sure you understand not comparing him/them to 6 max cash grinders.
The AJS roll is in danger of becoming a Tikay mantra thou, no matter how big it is or isn't. How many players thought i know i'll play poker, got online and lost, made a second deposit and never looked back. If thats his story and I do not doubt it for a moment he's not the norm and should not be talked of as a guide for the rest of us IMO.
In Response to Re: So lets have a go at this cash game! : i dont think the first bit is correct. he says the money in his poker account is his roll, the money in his bank is his money he lives on. he said if he lost say 10 buyin he would just drop down stakes and rebuild rather than deposit. although what he would do if he did his whole roll is different. Posted by hurst05
oh right sorry. didnt actually watch all of mastercash. just think its a bit weird why someone would leave 10kplus online so just assumed that was the reason behind it.
i would say for a good player 30 buyins is plenty however, enduring my biggest ever losing swing this month i would recommend using the 50 rule like me. just allows for that extra comfort.
Very good read this. Best of luck Tony. I made the switch from dyms / mtts solely to cash a few months back. I would class myself as experienced but still needed to change my game quite a bit when i changed! I feel my game has developed a great deal - definitely more aggressive now. However, I have since struggled to adapt back when playing mtts - I found making decisions with the 'cash head' on where I'd be able to reload in cash whereas in the past i'd have passed and waited for a better spot in mtts. It's a fine balance but u are good enough to adjust to both. My advise would be to play a cash amount (br permitting) which 'means something'. By nature, ur concentration level is higher, for example in Primo to a £2 mtt, purely from a money standpoint. The same is definitely true to cash. .15/.30 is a great stake to learn cash with decent players (generally) but also for a meaningful amount. Posted by phil12uk
Going back to the original post. I have the same problem as Phil. Before I played cash regularly I was a consistent winner at MTT's but once I made the change to concentrating on cash I can't do well in MTT's to save my life. Admittedly this may be due to variance as I don't play as many MTT's now, but search me on Sharkscope (Scheduled only because of the Russian roulettes you all know about) and it shows you exactly what I mean.
So as an answer ot combining them both I dont really know. I personally think one or the other is the best way. With the odd weekly MTT thrown in.
I'll reply properly (such as I can.....) tomorrow.
We need to remember I am talking about newbie Cash Players, playing, typically, nitty A-B-C poker on 1 or 2 Tables, not high-stakes multi-tablers who play very close to the edge. Different thing entirely.
Of course variance exists in cash poker - but it's way, way, less than in Tourney Poker, by a huge amount. THAT is the important message.
A newbie, playing conservatively, prudently, nitty poker cannot endure huge downswings, & if they do, they are doing something wrong. Which is a different thing to a downswing!
I am NOT a cash player, by any stretch of the imagination, so I'm not qualified to debate too strongly with high-rollers. But recreational newbies, playing sensibly, that's a whole different thing, and is right up my street.
A 150,000 hand downswing? I'm sure you are right. But a recreational player will not play that many hands in their entire life.
It's just about newbie cash players, playing sensibly.
Anyway, enjoy your evening. I'm just off for a 4 Tourney downswing. Mine's been going half a lifetime......
In reply to your thread Stein, I know where you are coming from but Penguin is not "New" to the game, just cash. He has a good MTT record and just wants to try his hand at a different style of play. I don't think a player can go from being a consistent winner at one discipline to losing his bankroll at another, its the same game at the end of the day isn't it?
You are right - I was wrong to say "never to have a losing month".
A better turn of phrase would have been "a nitty newbie, playing A-B-C conservative poker, is much less likely to have a losing month". If they did, I would not necessarily consider it a "downswing" - that'd be kidding them, & us. It's probable that they are doing something wrong. A different matter entirely. All imo, of course.
Penguin7, for example, is extremly unlikely to have a losing cash month, because he has a solid grasp of the game. But he might.
An edgy high-roller, playing fancy-dan stuff, is far more likely to have bigger downswings. I apologise for the careless wording.
Still struggling with posting hands. DAY3 : Started early after failing in Vegas quarter,coz I wanted to watch poker on TV.
Opened 4 tables but found it all a bit messy with lots of comings and goings and shortstacks about. Found few spots on 2 tables and had to top up but ran well on other two getting both stacks up to close to £50. Then it happened as on the post above ! Easy to get tilted here. Decided not to reload, and close that table. Concentrated on trying to recover on the other three. Dont know if that would be everyones choice ? Managed to claw some back on all of them, but not enough. Watching Trickett,Lewis and Timoshenko now, tomorrow is another day.
Jaworzno Loss £30
Legnica Profit £23.26
Sandmoor Loss £9.75
Gotts Park Profit £4.06
So I was lucky to only show a loss of £12.43 on the night and it leaves me still just in front so far by a princely sum of £14.26
I thought the opposition was tougher tonight, does the quality of players vary that much earlier or later in the evening ? Sillymidon I thought dangerous and also Fins who I know well from tournies.
I do have a 30 buyin roll, my main game is 200nl (I play 100 to 300 depending on whos at tables) so thats 6k. Once a week I take my profit off. If I did drop below 3k I would only play 100nl. The lowest I have ever been doing this method is 3500 in my account. I only play tables I comfortbly beat. Hence I am not always on every 200nl table. I never deposit so if I did ever go on a major downswing I would just move down a level. Reason for this is 1) I like to keep poker money seperate to my savings 2) My savings are very important to my future as I have no steady income. 3) When would I stop depositing, could be quite costly. 4) If you are good player you will be back up levels in no time.
As for what tikay said I can only go on my experience. I regular have losing nights. Its very rare for me to have a losing week and I have never had a losing month.
As for advice for opening poster, I think he should leave a grand in his account at end of this month and just play cash for march. A month should give him an very good idea how good he is and can take into account c4p bonus.
As for advice for opening poster, I think he should leave a grand in his account at end of this month and just play cash for march. A month should give him an very good idea how good he is and can take into account c4p bonus.
Thanks for that, I am sure that is very good advice. I would definitely miss playing tournaments but if I am to really make a go of playing cash it probably needs to be that way. Not ready yet to make that decision though, I need to convince myself that I am good enough and also that I will enjoy it enough !
"As for what Tikay said I can only go on my experience. I regular have losing nights. Its very rare for me to have a losing week and I have never had a losing month"
AJS you don't have to go off your own experience alone, simply reading this thread would tell you there are others on here and many far more talented players in the wider poker community who experience variance that suggests you may have been fortunate to escape such a run thus far. I am not doubting your talent but on the rare occasions I have run into you, run good much seems a fair tag.
In any case players entering cash games for the first time should not IMO use your experience as a yardstick, your story appears to be the exception to the many players I know, the majority of us are not blessed with your talent and good fortune. I know I have had to work very hard to post profitable results and I have had many, many losing months along the way, not as positive as your story but I'm sure its closer to what most players will experience.
Comments
this is massively wrong, 100k breakeven stretches are not that uncommon for proffessional 6max grinders (maybe not on sky because tbh sky is softer than the vast majority of sites)
20+ buyin downswings will be an almost monthly occurence at nl200+
this is a picture of a variance simulator tool for a winrate of 10bb/100 (that is a very very good winrate in todays games) over 10,000 hands
http://www.evplusplus.com/site_media/images/variance/wr_10.00_sd_80.00_nruns_30_nhands_10000_True_e3mAwI.png
Tikay,
I fear you may be leading these guys up the garden path here. Firstly can I get this one straight, a winning player requires a bankroll, a losing player requires a budget. It's fine for AJS to have a 30 buy-in roll, he's a winning player, Greg, Penguin et al have no idea how they will go, they may well beat nl30 and never look back but what if they don't. Neither you nor they know how long it will take them and how many buy-ins they will lose before they are beating the game. If your starting out give yourself a budget to learn the cash game and if you lose it which you probably will get another one, learning costs money there's just no way round it for the majority of us. Only after you have established yourself as a winning player is it time to consider how much to keep in your bankroll.
IMO nobody should expect to rarely lose on the night, & almost never over a week, or a month, it's unrealistic and will only build false expectations and I include competent cash players playing 6 tables. I recently watched a video were the pro explained how he lost 45% of the cash sessions he played, sure he beat his games for a $300,000 annual profit but within a span of 1m hands he encountered a run of 17,000 hands where he lost 20 buy-ins and another 100,000 hands where he made nothing. Eric lieu won big in the first European Cash game and then lost heavily in the second one is he not competent? Durrrr's swings are unreal as are many of the top cash pro's, even the great Dane Gus Hanson lost $5m in 2009 on FT, but won $1.3m in one month alone in 2010. Why would us mere mortals be any different especially when we are starting out.
Stating that in Cash Poker variance is massively less than Tourney Poker is IMO foolhardy as it gives the impression that cash poker is a safer option v tourneys. At NL50 you could lose four buy-ins in a couple of minutes, four days of Primo entry fees, rinse and repeat for a week and your down 28 Primo entries, how big was your budget? Stacks can be won & lost at an alarming rate and it's not a rare occurrence, you have to be able to deal with this and its not easy, confidence can be washed away as quickly as your bankroll/budget. Honestly I have sat at the tables thinking I have absolutely no idea how to play the game (yes scotty77 I know you agree) after taking a sustained run of lost flips, missed draws, continuous coolers and unreal beats ,more than enough to destroy a 30 buy-in roll. Trust me there is plenty of variance in cash poker and when your on the wrong side of it its expensive and no joke.
I hope you all run good, well at least until your sat at my table.
I wouldn't be surprised if his actual roll has a zero at the end of it.
And to compare Durr etc to a low stakes 6 max grinder is lol. A 6 max grinder is never gonna get into half the tricky spots that Durr is gonna be in.
But yeah to expect NOT to have a losing week/month is very unrealistic.
I have absolutely no idea how to play the game (yes scotty77 I know you agree)
lolllllllllll. nah mate...60nine60 is probably the only reg I think that of tbf
I think most of us have been here at some stage in our poker careers irrespective of whether we mainly play cash or tournies
I was using Durrrr for the reasons i am sure you understand not comparing him/them to 6 max cash grinders.
The AJS roll is in danger of becoming a Tikay mantra thou, no matter how big it is or isn't. How many players thought i know i'll play poker, got online and lost, made a second deposit and never looked back. If thats his story and I do not doubt it for a moment he's not the norm and should not be talked of as a guide for the rest of us IMO.
So as an answer ot combining them both I dont really know. I personally think one or the other is the best way. With the odd weekly MTT thrown in.
Thread gets better!
I'll reply properly (such as I can.....) tomorrow.
We need to remember I am talking about newbie Cash Players, playing, typically, nitty A-B-C poker on 1 or 2 Tables, not high-stakes multi-tablers who play very close to the edge. Different thing entirely.
Of course variance exists in cash poker - but it's way, way, less than in Tourney Poker, by a huge amount. THAT is the important message.
A newbie, playing conservatively, prudently, nitty poker cannot endure huge downswings, & if they do, they are doing something wrong. Which is a different thing to a downswing!
I am NOT a cash player, by any stretch of the imagination, so I'm not qualified to debate too strongly with high-rollers. But recreational newbies, playing sensibly, that's a whole different thing, and is right up my street.
A 150,000 hand downswing? I'm sure you are right. But a recreational player will not play that many hands in their entire life.
It's just about newbie cash players, playing sensibly.
Anyway, enjoy your evening. I'm just off for a 4 Tourney downswing. Mine's been going half a lifetime......
Oh, I forgot one thing.
You are right - I was wrong to say "never to have a losing month".
A better turn of phrase would have been "a nitty newbie, playing A-B-C conservative poker, is much less likely to have a losing month". If they did, I would not necessarily consider it a "downswing" - that'd be kidding them, & us. It's probable that they are doing something wrong. A different matter entirely. All imo, of course.
Penguin7, for example, is extremly unlikely to have a losing cash month, because he has a solid grasp of the game. But he might.
An edgy high-roller, playing fancy-dan stuff, is far more likely to have bigger downswings.
I apologise for the careless wording.
Opened 4 tables but found it all a bit messy with lots of comings and goings and shortstacks about. Found few spots on 2 tables and had to top up but ran well on other two getting both stacks up to close to £50. Then it happened as on the post above ! Easy to get tilted here. Decided not to reload, and close that table. Concentrated on trying to recover on the other three. Dont know if that would be everyones choice ? Managed to claw some back on all of them, but not enough. Watching Trickett,Lewis and Timoshenko now, tomorrow is another day.
Jaworzno Loss £30
Legnica Profit £23.26
Sandmoor Loss £9.75
Gotts Park Profit £4.06
So I was lucky to only show a loss of £12.43 on the night and it leaves me still just in front so far by a princely sum of £14.26
I thought the opposition was tougher tonight, does the quality of players vary that much earlier or later in the evening ? Sillymidon I thought dangerous and also Fins who I know well from tournies.
As for what tikay said I can only go on my experience. I regular have losing nights. Its very rare for me to have a losing week and I have never had a losing month.
As for advice for opening poster, I think he should leave a grand in his account at end of this month and just play cash for march. A month should give him an very good idea how good he is and can take into account c4p bonus.
As for advice for opening poster, I think he should leave a grand in his account at end of this month and just play cash for march. A month should give him an very good idea how good he is and can take into account c4p bonus.
Thanks for that, I am sure that is very good advice. I would definitely miss playing tournaments but if I am to really make a go of playing cash it probably needs to be that way.
Not ready yet to make that decision though, I need to convince myself that I am good enough and also that I will enjoy it enough !
"As for what Tikay said I can only go on my experience. I regular have losing nights. Its very rare for me to have a losing week and I have never had a losing month"
AJS you don't have to go off your own experience alone, simply reading this thread would tell you there are others on here and many far more talented players in the wider poker community who experience variance that suggests you may have been fortunate to escape such a run thus far. I am not doubting your talent but on the rare occasions I have run into you, run good much seems a fair tag.
In any case players entering cash games for the first time should not IMO use your experience as a yardstick, your story appears to be the exception to the many players I know, the majority of us are not blessed with your talent and good fortune. I know I have had to work very hard to post profitable results and I have had many, many losing months along the way, not as positive as your story but I'm sure its closer to what most players will experience.