Don you're never folding a set against 1.50 stacks, it's like 40 big blinds...
The 1 player in the hand that concerns you is the guy with 100xbb....
Of course it's possible you could be behind to this guy....
But he has soooooooooooooo many possible hands in his range that you are ahead of.
You have to play against all his possible hands, so stuff like pocket 3s, J5, J3, bare A/K/Q high flush draws, a pair and a flush draw, straigh and flush draw combos.
You have all those hands crushed.
And then there's hands that beat you, which are basically only flopped flushes, as he never shows top set here.
Even if you hit the top of his range, ie, he has a flush, you're still around 36% to win the hand anyway.
Look at the actions of the player who has 100xbb.
He min donk leads, to see a raise, and a re raise behind him, and he only flat calls.
He doesn't even have a flush here very often.
Look at his whole range of hands rather than trying to soul read plonkers who could show up with anything.
And never fold a flopped set v players sat with under half a buy in.
don, you dont have to worry about 1st bet after flop(all in), you are one of the other people betting, so theres only 2 people to worry about. refer back to odds on hitting a flush on the flop!!!!!
But do we really want to get entangled in 5way limped pot here. Yes there is only one significant stack that our focus should be on.
Never been a big fan of the getting it all in and hope to fill up, especially when your playing for a pot that is so disproportionate to your stack.
For the 100+ stack to get it in here he has to have a hand that has about 40% equity vs our low set. Math is seriously wrong for me. I'm not saying I fold the way the action plays, but I am going to tread carefully.
My reasoning and lines tend to be geared towards one table live play where you are extracting and conserving with micro managment. I guess if your multi-tabling the line can be different. But I think your shoving and praying if your getting it in here. Again, the math is bad.
to be fair amybr i am not saying to lump it all in on the flop, i think too risky on this board, what i am saying is i cant/wont put him on a flush just because its multiway and let it effect my betting. great believer in in smooth playing this .
I think you're supposed to look at all the possible hands he can have, and figure out what % equity our hand has against that range, to conclude if getting it in is gonna be profitable?
I would make us a favourite against his range, so if we're ahead significantly more often than we are behind, how can the math not be right to make the call? -
This is before we add into the equation all the "dead money" from shortstackers, who's ranges are even weaker than the full stack.
*edit - they will also almost certainly be holding some of the full stacks outs.
to be fair amybr i am not saying to lump it all in on the flop, i think too risky on this board, what i am saying is i cant/wont put him on a flush just because its multiway and let it effect my betting. great believer in in smooth playing this . Posted by pod1
If you eliminate flushes from his range, that means we have the best hand 100% of the time.
So why would you not want to get all the money in?
You aren't considering flushes, and we should assume he never limps with pocket Jacks, so we have the nuts, on a draw heavy board, facing multi way action...
if we are talking about the flop, then this is the big flaw i have in my game and the bit i just dont get. bear with me i have had a few. why is it alright to lump it in here (when excluding flushes, which i had) coz im sure im 100% ahead and then someone (mentioning no names) gets absolutly slated when he shoves pre with aces?. when is building a pot, contolling it and not losing your oppenent worse than jamming it all in when your 100% ahead on a board like that for an example. slightly tipsy phil
Ok, so when you've established that you're very likely to have the best hand, you need to do 2 things...
1) get paid for it
2) protect it
How to get paid depends on what sort of hands we think our opponent has.
In this hand, it's likely that our opponent has a strong made hand, like pocket threes, 2 pair, or a pair and a flush draw, something like AJ, with the jack of hearts. Or just a flush draw, such as the Ace or King of hearts.
So if we raise, or shove, will our opponent call us with a worse hand than the 1 we have?
If we raise, will he fold 2 pair? a set? nut flush draw? I don't think he will @ nl4....
In this case, he certainly will call with all the hands I've mentioned above, so therefore we can bet for value and protection.
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Another scenario would be if we have AA and the flop comes A 7 2 with no flush draws....
Our opponent bets into us.
On this board, we don't need to protect our hand. We aren't scared of any turn cards.
It's also hard for us to get value at this stage. If we raise here, what sort of hands can call us?
Pocket 2's, pocket 7s, and that's about it, as we hold all the aces!!!
So raising here most times isn't going to work, as there are very few hands that out opponent can call with. Only 22 and 77.
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So you need to assess the texture of the board before deciding what's the best way to get paid.
When Lucy open jams her Aces pre flop, she's almost never gonna get paid, because there's only 1 potential hand that can call her! That's KK!
There's no point keeping hands in that are never going to give us value unless they go ahead of us.
I would say the range he continues with is quite wide on this flop, if he folds, he folds. But missing out on value from like big draws and big made hands, in the hope of squeezing abit of value from weak flush draws is probably a mistake!
Don't be scared to lose your customer!
Btw, if u can catch a repeat of last nights primo Scotty explained this alot better than I have, with actual hands examples in front of him.
this ones springs to mind jj. standard 3/4 bet, but as soon as i did it i realised it was too much. had i put a smaller bet in here i woulda kept him in (bad k im thinkinpod1Small blind £0.15£0.15£42.23GREENIENO_Big blind £0.30£0.45£34.30 Your hole cards910 oldrectoryRaise £0.90£1.35£27.75haidyboyCall £0.90£2.25£29.45idgeFold DODGY65Fold pod1Call £0.75£3.00£41.48GREENIENO_Call £0.60£3.60£33.70Flop 105K pod1Bet £3.60£7.20£37.88GREENIENO_Fold oldrectoryCall £3.60£10.80£24.15haidyboyFold Turn 10 pod1Bet £8.10£18.90£29.78oldrectoryFold pod1Muck pod1Win £10.26 £40.04pod1Return £8.10£0.54£48.14PrevClose windowg. been on table with him for 3 hrs)
JJ we discussed this privatley and i said a sshove i felt was wrong for the pot. You said £1.74 instead. So ok Don raises to £1.74 and 3 get 3 callers. Turn 9 of hearts. How do we play from here. Posted by The_Don90
I still like a shove, but making it 1.74 is better than flatting imo.
If I make it 1.74 and the turn brings a flush, I would swear.
Hope to get a free card.
If he shoves, it's a maths calculation, which I can't do. Probably a fold though.
JJ we discussed this privatley and i said a sshove i felt was wrong for the pot. You said £1.74 instead. So ok Don raises to £1.74 and 3 get 3 callers. Turn 9 of hearts. How do we play from here. Posted by The_Don90
I agree with this and couldnt disagree with Doh more in this scenario.
We arent talking about thinking players who care about the money, we get 3bet on flop with 8h flush draw for goodness sake.
We cant protect our hand against people who dont care. But equally trying to extract maximum value here is a tad kamikaze.
If we were playing NL50/100/200 I'd be more aligned with your POV Doh, but people will not fold here (as seen) so I dont think we should be playing our hand quite so ambitiously
We have the best hand most of the time so we are raising for value.
We don't want them to fold worse hands than the 1 we have.
The turn will be a heart 18% of the time, probably much less considering it's highly likely our short stacked opponents are also holding some of his outs.
That is not a big % of the time, so we can happily get the rest of our money in on most turns.
Still prefer a shove though, because I agree that they are unlikely to fold. (which is a good thing)
In Response to Re: Massive pot. Limped pre. Monotone flop and turn with set. Played correctly. : I still like a shove, but making it 1.74 is better than flatting imo. If I make it 1.74 and the turn brings a flush, I would swear. Hope to get a free card. If he shoves, it's a maths calculation, which I can't do. Probably a fold though. Posted by DOHHHHHHH
Line I take here is truly going to be flatting through streets to see if I can fill up cheap. A whole host of hands will get it in here against us that we only have a marginal edge vs for stacks off flop.
It is perfectly reasonable to suspect 1 opponent has a flush already. I dont love racing A2/A4 of hearts either.
Being 5 way I am happier to keep everyone in a fillup dirt cheap. Dont have to win or lose a big pot here. Can pot control.
Raising denies us the opportunity to improme to 5's full multiway which wont be seen. I hate the Idea of making it 1.74 to fold turn. Also I believe whoever calls the 1.74 will hold out til river so its pretty moot.
He could have a flush, but "our equity against his stack off range is sufficient to get the money in on the flop and show a profit over time, especially given the dead money in the pot."
If you agree with me about the above statement, then we can agree to disagree on all the other things.
If you disagree with the above, I'd like you to point out where I have gone wrong/over-estimated how wide his stack off range is on this flop.
Any theories about playing a lower variance style, brm considerations, or whatever are irrelevant imo, but you have your own ideas about that.
Comments
Never been a big fan of the getting it all in and hope to fill up, especially when your playing for a pot that is so disproportionate to your stack.
For the 100+ stack to get it in here he has to have a hand that has about 40% equity vs our low set. Math is seriously wrong for me. I'm not saying I fold the way the action plays, but I am going to tread carefully.
My reasoning and lines tend to be geared towards one table live play where you are extracting and conserving with micro managment. I guess if your multi-tabling the line can be different. But I think your shoving and praying if your getting it in here. Again, the math is bad.
So ok Don raises to £1.74 and 3 get 3 callers.
Turn 9 of hearts. How do we play from here.
We arent talking about thinking players who care about the money, we get 3bet on flop with 8h flush draw for goodness sake.
We cant protect our hand against people who dont care. But equally trying to extract maximum value here is a tad kamikaze.
If we were playing NL50/100/200 I'd be more aligned with your POV Doh, but people will not fold here (as seen) so I dont think we should be playing our hand quite so ambitiously
It is perfectly reasonable to suspect 1 opponent has a flush already. I dont love racing A2/A4 of hearts either.
Being 5 way I am happier to keep everyone in a fillup dirt cheap. Dont have to win or lose a big pot here. Can pot control.
Raising denies us the opportunity to improme to 5's full multiway which wont be seen. I hate the Idea of making it 1.74 to fold turn. Also I believe whoever calls the 1.74 will hold out til river so its pretty moot.