Rancid, the easiest and least confusing way of getting the answer to this is simply: ammount you have to call divided by what the total pot will be if you call.
So in this scenario 341/800 = 0.42625 or 42.6%
EDIT: didn't realise jimi beat me to the simplifying lol
I'm suprised that a formula is necessary to work out that calling an all in is bad when we have 36% chance of winning the pot and we are paying £341 to win £459. We are getting 1.34:1 pot odds and 36% is roughly 2:1 against right.
Of course you shouldn't call. However it might be +ev to shove if the situation was reversed. If he bet out then we can shove with 36% equity if we think that the opponent will fold a significant amount of time (about 1/3rd of the time I think)
Yes calculating pot odds, whether you express them as pot odds or a percentage is prob the quickest and easiest way to decide whether to call or fold. Its also usually easy enough to do at table and works well for most situations facing a shove
But OP specifically asked about calculating his EV and also EV calcs have certain advantages
They put a monetary value on your actions You can use it to compare two +EV lines (although the calcs get pretty complicated)
Again its important to stress that any math like this is totally dependent on calculating ranges correctly
In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct? : Do you mean when your shove is a raise? If so you need to factor FE into calc. If you think you have none just use pot size as whats in it+ his call and your shove as the call amount If you are using fold equity=F, x =equity when called, C= amount villain must call P=pot B= your bet (total inc amount to call any bet villain may have made) EV=F(P)+(1-F)[x(P+C)+(1-x)(B)] Ev calcs useless unless your estimates of fold equity and equity in pot are accurate Did this in a hurry so there may be mistakes Posted by grantorino
Thanks everyone ) Cheers GT so if raising factor in FE then total equity would = our current equity + fold equity Fold equity = (chance our opponent will fold as a percentage) * (opponent's equity in the hand as a percentage).
So the 42% is neutral EV, 341/800 = .42 (42%)
Starting to fall into place
also GT - ICM based
Do you know a quick way to work our you stack equity in £ - say there's 10 left Something you can calculate in game quickly
In Response to Re: EV Calc - is this correct? : Thanks everyone ) Cheers GT so if raising factor in FE then total equity would = our current equity + fold equity Fold equity = (chance our opponent will fold as a percentage) * (opponent's equity in the hand as a percentage). So the 42% is neutral EV, 341/800 = .42 (42%) Starting to fall into place also GT - ICM based Do you know a quick way to work our you stack equity in £ - say there's 10 left Something you can calculate in game quickly Posted by rancid
Not sure exactly what you are saying but what you have written above sounds wrong. The potsizes are different when they fold and when they get it in, Im pretty sure you cant just add equities
Yeah 42% is the breakeven point on a call
Fold Equity = % chance villain will fold
For example, lets say you think you have 40% fold equity and 20% equity when called
3 outcomes He folds, you win on average 0.4*pot He calls, you win, you win on average 0.6*0.2*(Pot +his call) He calls, you lose, you lose on average 0.6*0.8*(Amount you shoved)
The formula above basically combines these 3 calcs
As for ICM cant do that myself, there are free online ICM calculators online for tournaments. Havent used them much though, but I'd imagine playing around with them would improve your grasp of when to shove/call it off in business end of tournaments
EDIT: just seen you asked specifically about £equity of your stack, this should be possible to calculate imo, but I tried before and couldnt, even for dyms.
Rancid, the easiest and least confusing way of getting the answer to this is simply: ammount you have to call divided by what the total pot will be if you call. So in this scenario 341/800 = 0.42625 or 42.6% EDIT: didn't realise jimi beat me to the simplifying lol Posted by Poker_Fail
Cheers,
I know how to work out if it's a call ... just pushing on a bit deeper
@pokerfail and jugglegeek Yes calculating pot odds, whether you express them as pot odds or a percentage is prob the quickest and easiest way to decide whether to call or fold. Its also usually easy enough to do at table and works well for most situations facing a shove But OP specifically asked about calculating his EV and also EV calcs have certain advantages They put a monetary value on your actions You can use it to compare two +EV lines (although the calcs get pretty complicated) Again its important to stress that any math like this is totally dependent on calculating ranges correctly Posted by grantorino
Oh ok, like rancid i'm still trying to figure all this stuff out, TY
I am going off on one so apoliges, just looking at how to work our FE and how this affects our total equity in raise situations- be it shoving with equity or bluffing with no equity This is my source online, figures are from an example
Fold equity = (chance our opponent will fold) * (opponent's equity in the hand).
Fold equity = (0.5) * (57.4).
Fold equity = 28.8%.
Now let's find our total equity in the hand.
Total equity = our current equity + fold equity.
Total equity = 42.4% + 28.8%.
Total equity = 71.2%.
If we work out our total equity we can then work out EV
I can just place total equity into my basic formula, as yours just looks a bit much m8
I'm suprised that a formula is necessary to work out that calling an all in is bad when we have 36% chance of winning the pot and we are paying £341 to win £459. We are getting 1.34:1 pot odds and 36% is roughly 2:1 against right. Of course you shouldn't call. However it might be +ev to shove if the situation was reversed. If he bet out then we can shove with 36% equity if we think that the opponent will fold a significant amount of time (about 1/3rd of the time I think) Posted by jugglegeek
In game yeah we look at the odds/percentages - factor in FE and consider our moves, call/raise/fold
This is more after the game looking back at hands, using tools and calcus we simply can not use in game because we have not got the time (
Still think it goes a long way in given yourself a deeper understanding
GT I am going off on one so apoliges, just looking at how to work our FE and how this affects our total equity in raise situations- be it shoving with equity or bluffing with no equity This is my source online, figures are from an example Fold equity = (chance our opponent will fold) * (opponent's equity in the hand). Fold equity = (0.5) * (57.4). Fold equity = 28.8%. Now let's find our total equity in the hand. Total equity = our current equity + fold equity. Total equity = 42.4% + 28.8%. Total equity = 71.2%. If we work out our total equity we can then work out EV I can just place total equity into my basic formula, as yours just looks a bit much m8 Posted by rancid
Couple of things
1. I may be using the term fold equity slightly incorrectly, in my calcs the number I'm plugging in is just the percentage they fold, which prob isnt exactly what fold equity means (not sure exactly tbh)
2. Whats above doesnt make much sense to me for calculating EV, doesnt mean its wrong, just never seen anything like it before. Looks to be some sort of estimate of equity in current pot we gain by him folding. Things that confuse me about it when using it to calculate EV include- What difference does his equity make if he folds? How can we just add the equities together, when the pot sizes we win and the amount we lose are not equal?
3. If you post the basic EV formula you plug this into it might make more sense
4. Im pretty sure my formula works, it shouldnt be that hard to understand the math as done in my last post. You can also use it to calculate the % of time you need him to fold by letting it =0 and work out F
Not saying what you have above is wrong, just not able to fully follow it. Where's it from btw?
yeah as I said what I put in that formula is prob not strictly fold equity, its just percentage they fold, and that total equity thing is prob fine
What I dont understand is how you propose to use this total equity as a single value in an EV calc as we win/lose different amounts depending on action, the fact that he has 0 Equity in pot when he folds and also the fact that our EV v his current range is not the same as EV against the range that calls .
You say you plug this into some formula, what is it?
Also calcs I use really arent that complicated, maybe look more complicated when written in a single formula like that. PM me if you want it explained more
Have you completely changed that post above? Your earlier one was good!
Yeah your EV calc looks fine, and is exactly the same as the one I posted for calling (Just different letters, notation). I dont think you can squeeze a single equity figure into that calc and get a proper answer for when we raise for reasons I gave above. I think that total equity calc will give you equity in current pot, but not factor in the raise or call. (I may be wrong on all that, but thats the way it seems to me).
I'm not using FE as defined in pokerbank in the calc for when we raise, just how often he folds I may be using different letters than in my original calc, but let F= How often he folds P=Current pot size E = Equity when called B= Amount we shove into pot C= Amount he calls
The 3 parts to the calc are:
He folds we win F*P ie Probability he folds * Amount in pot
He calls we win (1-F)*E*(P+C) ie Probability he calls*Probability we win*Amount we win
He calls we lose (1-F)*(1-E)*B ie Probability he calls* Probability we lose*Amount we lose
Note: If our equity is E, (1-E) is opponents equity, if he folds F, he calls (1-F)
You can combine into a single formula: FP+(1-F)[E(P+C)-(1-E)B] (This just takes 1-F out as a common factor)
The good news if you still have to decide if raise or call is better
I've posted two EV calcs, one for calling one for raising. I think both are correct. If you think there is a mistake or want more help with them let me know. If you dont want to use them thats fine too
I'm sure that fold equity thing is prob correct, and that total equity seems ok as a theoretical calc. To me it looks like it calculates equity in current pot (not sure on this, could well be wrong). This seems a little irrelevant to me as his equity doesnt matter if he folds (for EV calc) and when he calls the potsize has changed and the fold equity part is redundant. Cant see how you would use it in an EV calc, certainly not without some other figure. Also your equity against his current range is nearly always bigger than your equity against the part of his range whch calls a shove
There may be a way of using that Fold Equity/Total Equity to calculate EV but I cant see what it would be, and it seems likely that you would need more figures if you can. If there is a way I cant help you with it, if you find one I'd be interested to see it
Comments
36% equity on the flop minus your pot odds expressed as a percentage 341/800 =42.6%
If your equity on the flop is greater than your pot odds its +EV
If your equity on the flop is less than the pot odds its -EV.
So 42.6-36%= 6.6%
6.6% of total pot £800 = £53 rounded up as your equity is less than your pot odds its -EV
EV -£53
So in this scenario 341/800 = 0.42625 or 42.6%
EDIT: didn't realise jimi beat me to the simplifying lol
Of course you shouldn't call. However it might be +ev to shove if the situation was reversed. If he bet out then we can shove with 36% equity if we think that the opponent will fold a significant amount of time (about 1/3rd of the time I think)
@pokerfail and jugglegeek
Yes calculating pot odds, whether you express them as pot odds or a percentage is prob the quickest and easiest way to decide whether to call or fold. Its also usually easy enough to do at table and works well for most situations facing a shove
But OP specifically asked about calculating his EV and also EV calcs have certain advantages
They put a monetary value on your actions
You can use it to compare two +EV lines (although the calcs get pretty complicated)
Again its important to stress that any math like this is totally dependent on calculating ranges correctly
Cheers GT so if raising factor in FE
then total equity would = our current equity + fold equity
Fold equity = (chance our opponent will fold as a percentage) * (opponent's equity in the hand as a percentage).
So the 42% is neutral EV, 341/800 = .42 (42%)
Starting to fall into place
also GT - ICM based
Do you know a quick way to work our you stack equity in £ - say there's 10 left
Something you can calculate in game quickly
Yeah 42% is the breakeven point on a call
Fold Equity = % chance villain will fold
For example, lets say you think you have 40% fold equity and 20% equity when called
3 outcomes
He folds, you win on average 0.4*pot
He calls, you win, you win on average 0.6*0.2*(Pot +his call)
He calls, you lose, you lose on average 0.6*0.8*(Amount you shoved)
The formula above basically combines these 3 calcs
As for ICM cant do that myself, there are free online ICM calculators online for tournaments. Havent used them much though, but I'd imagine playing around with them would improve your grasp of when to shove/call it off in business end of tournaments
EDIT: just seen you asked specifically about £equity of your stack, this should be possible to calculate imo, but I tried before and couldnt, even for dyms.
I know how to work out if it's a call ... just pushing on a bit deeper
thanks anyway m8'ty
I am going off on one so apoliges, just looking at how to work our FE and how this affects our total equity in raise situations- be it shoving with equity or bluffing with no equity
This is my source online, figures are from an example
Now let's find our total equity in the hand.
If we work out our total equity we can then work out EV
I can just place total equity into my basic formula, as yours just looks a bit much m8
This is more after the game looking back at hands, using tools and calcus we simply can not use in game because we have not got the time
Still think it goes a long way in given yourself a deeper understanding
1. I may be using the term fold equity slightly incorrectly, in my calcs the number I'm plugging in is just the percentage they fold, which prob isnt exactly what fold equity means (not sure exactly tbh)
2. Whats above doesnt make much sense to me for calculating EV, doesnt mean its wrong, just never seen anything like it before. Looks to be some sort of estimate of equity in current pot we gain by him folding. Things that confuse me about it when using it to calculate EV include-
What difference does his equity make if he folds?
How can we just add the equities together, when the pot sizes we win and the amount we lose are not equal?
3. If you post the basic EV formula you plug this into it might make more sense
4. Im pretty sure my formula works, it shouldnt be that hard to understand the math as done in my last post. You can also use it to calculate the % of time you need him to fold by letting it =0 and work out F
Not saying what you have above is wrong, just not able to fully follow it. Where's it from btw?
It's from here (Pokerbank), I find it easy to follow and have done from the start
So I am not going to start messing about using your formulas )
But anyway I think your FE is incorrect, but I could be wrong
http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/mathematics/equity/fold/
I'll follow this up at some point, bit frazzled
What I dont understand is how you propose to use this total equity as a single value in an EV calc as we win/lose different amounts depending on action, the fact that he has 0 Equity in pot when he folds and also the fact that our EV v his current range is not the same as EV against the range that calls .
You say you plug this into some formula, what is it?
Also calcs I use really arent that complicated, maybe look more complicated when written in a single formula like that. PM me if you want it explained more
GT
Calling down formula I have
P=Pot (Amount in Pot)
E=Equity (Your equity)
-C=Amount to call (Amount you stand to lose)
OE= oppo equity (opponents equity)
(P x E) + (-C x OE)
(459 x .36) + (-341x.64)
(165.24) + (-218.24)
= -53
If we have to factor in Fold equity then we add our FE onto our equity and subtract from our opponents equity ?
I can’t get to grips with your formula tbh
How do I insert the FE into the above formula ? Struggling here !!!
Fold equity = (chance our opponent will fold) * (opponent's equity in the hand).
Yeah your EV calc looks fine, and is exactly the same as the one I posted for calling (Just different letters, notation). I dont think you can squeeze a single equity figure into that calc and get a proper answer for when we raise for reasons I gave above. I think that total equity calc will give you equity in current pot, but not factor in the raise or call. (I may be wrong on all that, but thats the way it seems to me).
I'm not using FE as defined in pokerbank in the calc for when we raise, just how often he folds
I may be using different letters than in my original calc, but let
F= How often he folds
P=Current pot size
E = Equity when called
B= Amount we shove into pot
C= Amount he calls
The 3 parts to the calc are:
He folds we win F*P ie Probability he folds * Amount in pot
He calls we win (1-F)*E*(P+C) ie Probability he calls*Probability we win*Amount we win
He calls we lose (1-F)*(1-E)*B ie Probability he calls* Probability we lose*Amount we lose
Note: If our equity is E, (1-E) is opponents equity, if he folds F, he calls (1-F)
You can combine into a single formula:
FP+(1-F)[E(P+C)-(1-E)B] (This just takes 1-F out as a common factor)
The good news if you still have to decide if raise or call is better
Last post was about working out FE
Fold equity = (chance our opponent will fold) * (opponent's equity in the hand).
Fold equity = (0.5) * (57.4).
Fold equity = 28.8%.
Now let's find our total equity in the hand.
Total equity = our current equity + fold equity.
Total equity = 42.4% + 28.8%.
Total equity = 71.2%.
I've posted two EV calcs, one for calling one for raising. I think both are correct. If you think there is a mistake or want more help with them let me know. If you dont want to use them thats fine too
I'm sure that fold equity thing is prob correct, and that total equity seems ok as a theoretical calc. To me it looks like it calculates equity in current pot (not sure on this, could well be wrong). This seems a little irrelevant to me as his equity doesnt matter if he folds (for EV calc) and when he calls the potsize has changed and the fold equity part is redundant. Cant see how you would use it in an EV calc, certainly not without some other figure. Also your equity against his current range is nearly always bigger than your equity against the part of his range whch calls a shove
There may be a way of using that Fold Equity/Total Equity to calculate EV but I cant see what it would be, and it seems likely that you would need more figures if you can. If there is a way I cant help you with it, if you find one I'd be interested to see it
Yeah sorry GT, this whole thread is me asking for help )
It is going nowhere )
I am re focusing now because I have lost my way on this.
Trying to work on the fundamentals below
“You multiply the results of the possible outcomes by their probability of happening, and then you add all them together”
I can work out EV when calling down – no problem )
Calculating EV when factoring in FE is where I am really struggling.
I think I’ll go back and understand the fundamentals then look at your formula again as I am sure it’s right.
Currently working through this:
. The 3 steps to calculating EV (with the boxes method).
. List all the possible outcomes of that action. (Make the boxes)
. Find the probability and the win/loss of each outcome. (Fill the boxes)
. Put it all together in an equation and work it out. (Solve the boxes)
If you want to PM me and explain your formula then please do, I am sure you know what your talking about.
Thanks for everything GT
Great help as always