Fold:0.35(60)=21 Call, we win: 0.65(0.2)(128)=16.64 Call, we lose: 0.65(0.8)(80)=41.6
So EV= 21+16.64-41.6=-3.96
or directly into formula I posted above 0.35(60)+0.65[(0.2)(128)-(0.8)(80)]=-3.96
The stuff you posted above about multiplying probabilities is what you need to do. Thats what my calc does. There are 3 possible outcomes, we work out probability for each, and multiply each probability by profit/loss for each. Add together to find overall EV.
Its very possible there is a mistake in my calcs, if you think there is one let me know
well done, now have a well deserved beer 3rd last line of your post = formula I gave If you want to work out fold equity required to breakeven put formula=0 and solve for F, but we will leave that for another day Posted by grantorino
) I am going out for a couple - brain melt
onto reverse implied odds next and how they affect your EV !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Comments
Another EV Calc, does this look right
Pre flop pot £48
Oppo bets £12
Hero jams £80
Oppo has to call £68
Fold Equity = 35%, Oppo calls 65%
Hero Pot Equity =20%, oppo equity 80%
+EV £2.60 ??????????
Fold:0.35(60)=21
Call, we win: 0.65(0.2)(128)=16.64
Call, we lose: 0.65(0.8)(80)=41.6
So EV= 21+16.64-41.6=-3.96
or directly into formula I posted above
0.35(60)+0.65[(0.2)(128)-(0.8)(80)]=-3.96
The stuff you posted above about multiplying probabilities is what you need to do. Thats what my calc does. There are 3 possible outcomes, we work out probability for each, and multiply each probability by profit/loss for each. Add together to find overall EV.
Its very possible there is a mistake in my calcs, if you think there is one let me know
FOLD EQUITY = Our opponent folds.
We win 60 (this is what’s currently in the pot) 35% of the time.
60 x 0.35 = 21
POT EQUITY 1 = Our opponent calls and we improve to make the best hand.
We win 128, 20% of the time.
128 x 20 = 25.60
POT EQUITY 2 = Our opponent calls and we don’t improve.
We lose 80, 80% of the time.
-80 x 0.80 = -64
EV = Fold Equity + Pot Equity
EV = (21 + { 0.65 x [ (25.60) - (64) ] }
EV = (21 + {-24.96}
EV = -3.96
3rd last line of your post = formula I gave
If you want to work out fold equity required to breakeven put formula=0 and solve for F, but we will leave that for another day