Heard a quote from Richard Dawkins on the Gervais/Merchant/Pilkington podcasts that I listen to a while ago so thought I'd find it and share it... I thought it was interesting anyway...
"A world without rodents would be a very different world. It is less likely to come to pass than a world dominated by rodents and free of people. If nuclear war destroys humanity and most of the rest of life, a good bet for survival in the short term, and for evolutionary ancestry in the long term, is rats. I have a post-Armageddon vision. We and all other large animals are gone. Rodents emerge as the ultimate post-human scavengers. They gnaw their way through New York, London and Tokyo, digesting spilled larders, ghost supermarkets and human corpses and turning them into new generations of rats and mice, whose racing populations explode out of the cities and into the countryside. When all the relics of human profligacy are eaten, populations crash again, and the rodents turn on each other, and on the cockroaches scavenging with them. In a period of intense competition, short generations perhaps with radioactivity enhanced mutation-rates boost rapid evolution. With human ships and planes gone, islands become islands again, with local populations isolated save for occasional lucky raftings: ideal conditions for evolutionary divergence. Within 5 million years, a whole range of new species replace the ones we know. Herds of giant grazing rats are stalked by sabre-toothed predatory rats.* Given enough time, will a species of intelligent, cultivated rats emerge? Will rodent historians and scientists eventually organise careful archaeological digs (gnaws?) through the strata of our long-compacted cities, and reconstruct the peculiar and temporarily tragic circumstances that gave ratkind its big break?"
Well done on the recent results Mr Lambert, I've enjoyed playing the same table as you on a couple of occasions recently. Was disappointed to be Bubble Boy in the deepie last night, but to be honest it was a good learning experience playing that FT with you and Mr Bates!
Myself, I'm really only break even at best right now, but feel like I'm closing in on sustainable profits if I can just tweak my game around the bubble / FT.
Cheers Matt, and yeah sucks to be the bubble boy, especially when it's a decent £100 bubble... I know how you feel cos tonight it was me lol.
I'm not sure it does now I think about it Shakin. I think I got a nicer feeling from winning that BH than I did from my +£600 session the other day on cash. Obviously if I had the choice I'd always choose the large cash amount, but the feeling of winning the MTT is better... that could change if I go and do an insane like +£2k day on cash or something though lol.
Cheers for the hands, I'll have a look at them and get in contact with you about sorting a session soon.
More MTTs tonight and didn't get round to cash again. DEFFO getting back on the cash asap.
£10.50 UKPC QF - Played this just cos I was short on MTT tables at the start of the session so thought I might as well. Managed to bink a seat there for £48
£48 UKPC Semi - I doubled up in this very first hand when I opened and 4bet AA then just bet flop, shove turn on like 3567hhh w/ the Ah, villian called with JJ with a heart and I faded the 2 outer. Then a while later BvB I opened into Melt, he 3bet, and I shipped AK... was quite a big shove but pretty sure he'll be 3betting there a fair bit, I'm happy to just take it down now and not take a flip and was just avoiding an awkward spot with AK OOP against a good MTT player, and I was shocked to see he called with AJ and I won. The money bubble for £88 went on for an absolute age, and then when that burst, the seat bubble went on for near enough as long again. Then one guy just took to open shipping pretty muc every single hand. The cards went his way though and I eventually got my seat by just staying out of his way, so £220 there.
£22 Deepstack - Went deep again, another very long bubble but this time I was the bubble boy Sucks, especially when it's a small field so only 3 paid out so pretty top heavy but meh someone's gotta be the bubble boy. Finished 4/29.
£11 BH - Not much going on in this, exit hand was me 3bet shipping about 18 bigs to iso a shorty shove with 77 and someone behind cold called to go bounty hunting with 22 and bust us both. Finished 90/145, no cash
£11r Main - Was in for the standard £33, going well throughout, got down to final 70 odd and was middle of the pack, then I open and ship AK over a 3b, called by QQ, flop my K but river is the Q and it was gg Finished 72/291
£5r Mini - Again in for standard £16.50, never got a stack going all game which was probably partly down to the fact MattBates was sat to my direct left from the first hand of the game to my exit hand. Got to the add-on period and then somehow found myself at 10xBB and I must have grinded that 10xBB for like 90 mins, only to jam AT BvB into Bate's KJs and lose. Finished 60/212, no cash.
£55 BH - Was going really well in this throughout, and was like a top 5 stack with 20 odd left, then I got it in pre against a fellow top 5 stack w/ AK v KK to bust. I guess there's an arguement for avoiding the spot but I was the shover not the caller and I think we were only like 40xBB eff. Frustrated with that one though, should prob just be a nit and lock up for a bit in that spot. Finished 22/87 anyway with £66.80 of heads.
Tonight was a night of near misses all round. I played a smaller MTT schedule to avoid regging anything that started too late so that I could play some cash cos I've been neglecting it recently. That kinda went out the window though when I ran deep in the mini cos I wanted to close that out before loading cash. Tiny profit and really frustrating night though.
£6 sat into £55 BH - This was the first game of the night. I'd decided not to play the £55 BH cos it starts later and runs quite late so thought I'd play this just for the money to get some more tables running. Plodded along ok, but went into the final 4-5 as one of the shorter stacks with only 2 seats available. Then I absolutely battered it, everyone seemed to be playing really scared of busting so I built up a pretty big stack and got to be CL barely seeing a flop the entire time. I was CL when we went to the bubble 3 handed, and lost a 60/40 to burst the bubble, think it was AQ<KJ, still got an ok stack but 2nd in chips now, and I 3bet jam TT and stone bubble it against a call from K3o... sigh. A hold there leaves him with like 1xBB.
£11 BH - Can't remember the exit here but was doing pretty well throughout then busto'd in a couple of races. Finished 44/148 with 1 head for £3.75
£33 Main - Again went well throughout. At the last break before I bust I was 26/56 with 52 paid. We came back from break, played for quite a while and annoyingly for some reason I thought the bubble had burst when I 3bet jammed TT into QQ and bust 54th, 2 off the money. Annoying but with the stack sizes being on the bubble wouldn't have stopped me jamming anyway. So 54/438 with £31.64 of heads.
£5.50 Mini - Again went pretty well from the start. The big turning point was when I got it in pre 3way QQ v AJ v TT and held to go to 14k in chips which was double average at the time. From that point onwards I was cruising and just picking up lots of dead money. Long story short, I got down to the final 14 and 3bet jammed JJ into TT and lost to bust in 14th Most frustrating thing ever, particularly in that comp just because the payouts in the mini are SO bad unless you make like top 3. Finished 14/568 for £32.85
It's a good job I took £21 of heads cos the actual cash was only £11 which seems bizarre to only get double the BI for 14/568. I know it's a BH so prizepool is split etc but even still that seems low!
So really deep runs (and a 4th half decent run) in 3 out of the 4 comps I played and finished with a profit of £12.74 sigh.
Also played a morning session of cash and finished about +£75. Off to play some more cash now so will update that in the morning. I've decided I'm going ALL OUT for a 2nd place finish in the UKPC rake race to win a £1k seat (1st place is out of reach) so gonna be hammering the site over the next week.
Hi Lambert. Finally managed (in a way) to get my 8 hands up. Im away for a week from tomorrow so hopefully sort something out for when I get back (from Greece ).
*** Warning in advance - This is definitely going to be a tl;dr post ***
So this is the story of my last week on Sky and how I made a terrible decision to try and win a cheap/easy UKPC seat, how it started to go reallllllyy badly wrong, but then resulted in not the worst conclusion in the world.
I've posted a lot of stuff on the 'For Lambert' thread (cheers Larson lol) so will just C+P bits of that for some of this...
Dunno if any of you remember but I didn't really decide to go for it until like 9th/10th May and by that point 2nd place only had like 7k points. So I (stupidly) thought 'oh this'll be easy, I'm already on like 5.5k myself, so I'll just carry on grinding on as normal, but play some RRs on the side and if I make say 4000 points from them, that'll mean I've paid £400 in rake (assuming I ran EV) and I'll get like £100+ of that back in RB so it'll only cost me £300 to get a UKPC seat which is much cheaper than it'd probably cost me via sats. So it was like 'ok this is cool, I'll just get a cheap UKPC seat while I grind my normal cash games as normal anyway'... didn't quite work out like that lol.
So points scores when I started where pretty low, then in the last 5 days it went nuts. 2nd place went from 7k to nearly 30k in 5 days!!
So I had 2 options once I'd got a few days in, either sigh about losing £700 and just give up and leave it there and know I'll get £200ish of it back in RB (so lose £500)... OR carry on, with the theory that I'd have to lose ALOT of money for it to not be cancelled out by the RB and £1k seat. Then as it went on, the scores being put up were crazier and crazier but so was the downward graph on my RRs so had the same 2 options above and felt like I was in too deep to stop.
I started off on my experiment running insanely well, like proper ridiculous kinda rungood... to the point where I had played 1000 games but instead of being the -£250 ish I should have been due to rake, I was actually +£50 lol. I had made a profit from RRs over a 1000 game sample!! ... pretty nuts but ofc that wasn't to last and rather than just settle back to a happy medium it went rapidly the other way to way below EV very quickly.
Here's a breakdown of results from SS by stakes to give you an idea of how it went... (if you don't know all RRs have 10% rake and you 'should' lose that rake every single game long term as it's a 50/50 chance in every game)...
£1s - Played 1954 games - Lost £187. Running EV would be -£195.40 so I was £8.40 above EV
£2s - Played 1946 games - Lost £461. Running EV would be -£389.20 so I was £71.80 under EV
£3s - Played 1728 games - Lost £586. Running EV would be -£518.40 so I was £67.60 under EV
£5s - Played 1280 games - Lost £879. Running EV would be -£640 so I was £239 under EV
£10s - Played 173 games - Lost £63.31. Running EV would be -£173 so I was £109.69 above EV
£20s - Played 93 games. Lost £246. Running EV would be -£186 so I was £60 under EV
£30s - Played 43 games - Lost £459. Running EV would be -£129 so I was £330 under EV
£50s - Played 39 games - Lost £45.10. Running EV would be -£195 so I was £149.90 above EV
So to save you all doing the maths, from the above, I lost £500.41 more than you would expect to longterm. sigh. That's a lesson to anyone who doesn't realise how long the longterm can be in poker.
It was a really horrible experience mentally and it's something I'd never consider doing ever again. I was majorly stressed throughout the whole 5 days I did it, couldn't think about anything but this promo etc and just couldn't wait for it to end. There were periods where I thought I'd blown it, came in too late and I couldn't secure a top 2 finish and was gonna end up with just UKPC £200 final seat and a HUGE chunk of losses.
My total losses on Sharkscope for RRs are £2926, and I've won a £1k seat + £500, and (after some rough calcs) I think my total RB for 32k points is in the region of £1200.
However, the more I got into this promo, the more I realised how bad it was, and so the more I was focussed on just coming out the other end of it as close to break even as possible across all my games. Luckily cash and MTT results have been quite kind to me recently, the highlight being my biggest ever winning cash session of £850 one morning... was hoping I could make it my first ever £1k day in the night time but ended up making like £135 to finish £15 shy of a £1k day. So overall, here I am 50% of the way through the month, I've got a UKPC seat, I've made a profit on the month overall so far, and I still got the other half of the month to try and make more profits and be earning 10% more RB on my cash games than I normally would. Far from a terrible outcome.
Feel like a bit of an idiot even telling this story tbf because looking back now it was such a stupid idea, but I'm not afraid to own up when I've made stupid mistakes, and I always learn from them... luckily this one wasn't too costly in the end
Its always good to get a great poker lesson that didn't end up costing you loads so chalk it up as a lucky win and move on. I already thought you had a seat locked up ages ago? You have been in the lobby a while. Posted by CraigSG1
I've regged and de-regged a few times so that's why you may have seen me in the lobby. I'll always reg the £1k before playing the £220 Final, that way if I bink a seat, I'll get the money and have te option to de-reg the main and just keep the £1k cash if need be in the future. But not won a seat yet (before this promo)
I fully intend to play the UKPC obv and it's like 99% chance I will, but it just makes sense to do it that way cos you never know what will happen. I could somehow go completely busto and wanna take the money, a family member could die and their funeral is on that day or whatever... it's like 3 months away and that's a really long time, so just makes sense to give yourself that opportunity to pull out and take the cash when all it takes it 2 secs to reg before hand.
I think by the time you are sat at your UKPC table in August you will be looking back to these past couple of weeks and laughing about it. Far from a disaster, just sounds like it was a stressful time! All the best and gl in August
Fortune favours the brave here. You cant really use the term EV at all in this experiment imo unless you captured the hands dealt and the outcome of each flip.
In theory RRs are simple a simple 1:1 with a 10% rake burn.
But in practice, to effectively state how well you ran, you need to sum your all in hand equity * by stake and then deduct the actual outcome. (Plus it gets really complicated when you start thinking about hand distribution and Hero HH rank - Villain HH rank, etc)
But yeah. in essence, you should run at winning 50% flips over an infinity sample, but I would guess you have to burn like alot >£100K in rake the get a good enough sample size to get close to running at 50%.
All that said, I approve of the level of degen in this instance given the promo. Nice degen punt imo. This could have been seriously disastrous had you ran bad with cards dealt+villain distribution+EVFlipperments.
I was too tired to update last night but it was my first time back at the tables since the promo ended. Logged in to see all my lobby filters still set to RRs... so glad I'll never need to play another one of them in my life.
Bit of cash, bit of MTT. Thought I'd jump on the UKPC sats cos the promo had meant the fields were so much bigger and I prefer that in a sat. Played the £48 Semi, and bust 27/70 iirc it was jamming AK into AA.
£110 Roller - That was going pretty well from the start, going along nicely throughout and then I 3bet jammed close to 20 bigs with JJ and bizarrely got snapped by A5s which made a flush to bust me. Came 71/174
£11 Bounty Hunter - Another good start here. Within about 20 mins of the start I was a top 5 stack and never really left the top 5 at all until shortly before busting. Obv in the later stages stacks get alot shallower so even being top 5 wasn't hugely deep, I GII on the flop with 2 overs + NFD and bricked to be left with about 10 bigs. Bust shortly after, came 32/187 so a little outside the money and got £7.50 of heads.
£11 Mini Roller - Another tournament that went really well from the start. I tried to bluff a river early on with 88 on something like KTQQx and managed to get called by worse lol... so from that point onwards just value towned that player repeatedly. Had a big of a nightmare when Adam (Bromley) joined the table, got into a load of wars against him and he won pretty much 100% of them, but luckily I was able to get chips from other spots on the table.... like that fish Hyftddrr Cash was going pretty rubbish at this point, and I'd bust every other MTT so this Mini was the saver for the night (or I hoped it would be). Ended up just missing out on a FT, finishing 8th for £75.57
Was also pretty sigh at cash, got (imo) coolered for 200xBB at 50NL MC, got a pretty aggressive dynamic with Ryanc7 so think it was a standard spot, we both had OPs to the board but his rivered a straight. Thought I was gonna get that £100 back when I got it in pre AA v QQ at 100NL but a queen on the flop put an end to that lol.
Heatered for a bit towards the end to to win a couple of stacks back and so only finished about -£50 on cash, and was about -£100 on MTTs (my 8th place in the mini paid for everything bar the Roller BI).
=============================================
Played 2 MTTs in France this morning and bust both with AK<AA aipf, no cashes.
Cash went better though and I finished about +£350
Will post 2 hands from the session. The first 1 is just a cooler (in my favour) but thought I'd post it cos pretty sure it's my biggest ever pot won.
The other one is a bit more interesting and up for discussion...
In Response to Re: Lambert180 ----- Lolpro and Onwards ------- UKPC Rakerace Blogaments : I've regged and de-regged a few times so that's why you may have seen me in the lobby. I'll always reg the £1k before playing the £220 Final, that way if I bink a seat, I'll get the money and have te option to de-reg the main and just keep the £1k cash if need be in the future. But not won a seat yet (before this promo) I fully intend to play the UKPC obv and it's like 99% chance I will, but it just makes sense to do it that way cos you never know what will happen. I could somehow go completely busto and wanna take the money, a family member could die and their funeral is on that day or whatever... it's like 3 months away and that's a really long time, so just makes sense to give yourself that opportunity to pull out and take the cash when all it takes it 2 secs to reg before hand. Posted by Lambert180
Hey, i didnt think there was a cash equilivant, was there?
Comments
Myself, I'm really only break even at best right now, but feel like I'm closing in on sustainable profits if I can just tweak my game around the bubble / FT.
Best of luck
Mattp
Have finally bunged up my hands into the BBV section and look forward to speaking in the next week or so. IIRC my skype is michaeljhinde.
You tried something different, fair play to you.
You can learn from it and WD from not shying away from posting about it. Interesting and different.
GL
The other one is a bit more interesting and up for discussion...