3 x 4 = 12, x 2.2 = 26.4% ? Sorry Dev I wasn't aware of your theory, ofc I was looking for the 'supposed' odds. lol Whatever you're doing seems to be working at the levels you play anyway, gl! Posted by DOHHHHHHH
no worries m8
not my theory buddy just my observation and therefore my opinion. i've thrown down a challenge to anyone that wants to take it up. then we will have a better idea. but unless anyone is prepared to do it,i guess we will never know,will we? anyway m8,i know what i saw or i guess you would possibly argue,thought i saw. as i've already said... someone, prove me wrong.
By my quick calcs when we hold KK at least 1 A should flop 22.6% when villains cards are unknown. When he has an A this drops to 17.6%. Obv some of these flops include a K. Did calcs very quickly so may be wrong Posted by grantorino
i think these are the important words here,'should flop' doesn't mean they 'will flop'
anyways,i'm not changing anyones minds on this one. so i'll except that you are all right and i am wrong here.
"just try loading up 15+ tables for 134 days playing 2 sessions some days and playing an average of 3 to 4 hours a day,and playing KK god knows how many times,and see if you still feel the same way.?
Dev I aint got the time to do this and dispute your findings, but I know you're wrong (no offence), why don't you try asking Scotty77, TommyD, Lol_Raise, Nutter, or any other player who has probably done 10 times more volume than you, and ask them if when you have KK an ace comes on the flop 50% of the time? lol
Dev nobody is saying you're wrong or lying - but the fact of the matter is aa will not come otf 50% of the time when you hold kk - that'd suggest the rng is rigged. I believe what you're saying, and that's just the way the cards ran for you.
I play cash regularly on the site so over the next few weeks I'll make a note of each time an A comes otf when I hold KK and get back to you - obviously it's a much smaller sample size but I'll give it a shot.
Dev I aint got the time to do and dispute, but I know how you're wrong (no offence), why don't you try asking Scotty77, TommyD, Lol_Raise, Nutter, or any other player who has probably done 10 times more volume than you, and ask them if when you have KK an ace comes on the flop 50% of the time? lol Posted by Lambert180
fair point m8,
as i've said i except that i'm wrong here, but i'm simply giving 'my opinion' of what 'i saw' through playing my challenge and also i was just giving 'my opinion' as to the best way to play KK.
just for me though mate, and just for fun if you like... count up for me just how many times an Ace does come. i would be interested to know what stats that you come up with..and then please let me know.
Is the study only when we have KK? Or how often an ace flops on all flops seen? Posted by DOHHHHHHH
yes DOH
this is only an observation that i have made when holding KK
(* *) ^ dev.
ps; and if you think about ,which i'm sure you already have,wouldn't it make sense for an Ace to come 'more often than normal here' simply to induce action?
In Response to Re: DYM spot (please move to clinc) : yes DOH this is only an observation that i have made when holding KK (* *) ^ dev. ps; and if you think about ,which i'm sure you already have,wouldn't it make sense for an Ace to come 'more often than normal here' simply to induce action? Posted by devonfish5
Oh dear, it's the actions hands to induce action arguement lol. Few points...
1) When an A comes, that doesn't mean they have it
2) It's probably the worst card to induce action cos most people won't put much in the pot with KK when an Ace is out, so it would have the opposite effect. If they wanted action wouldn't they just deal the other person AA and put out a blank flop?
3) If you genuinely believe the site is rigged, why would you choose to play here?
Dev nobody is saying you're wrong or lying - but the fact of the matter is aa will not come otf 50% of the time when you hold kk - that'd suggest the rng is rigged. I believe what you're saying, and that's just the way the cards ran for you. I play cash regularly on the site so over the next few weeks I'll make a note of each time an A comes otf when I hold KK and get back to you - obviously it's a much smaller sample size but I'll give it a shot. Posted by percival09
ty m8, at last,someone has actually given this some credence and is prepared to at least 'investigate' my thoughts.
i never said that the rng is rigged,or suggested it,that would be wrong,wouldn't it. i gave my opinion and that was that i thought that when someone held KK an Ace would flop 'about' 50% of the time,that's all.
i look forward to 'your findings' buddy and thanks dev
You know, about the whole 'creating action' thing.. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if that were true. Not just with Sky, with any site... but I don't know, and frankly it doesn't matter, but personally I don't think you can write it off.
In Response to Re: DYM spot (please move to clinc) : ty m8, at last,someone has actually given this some credence and is prepared to at least 'investigate' my thoughts. i never said that the rng is rigged,or suggested it,that would be wrong,wouldn't it. i gave my opinion and that was that i thought that when someone held KK an Ace would flop 'about' 50% of the time,that's all. i look forward to 'your findings' buddy and thanks dev Posted by devonfish5
I may be really confused here Devon lol so please excuse me if I'm being really stupid.
The laws of probability state that an Ace will not come on the flop 50% over a long enough sample, that is a fact. So if Sky's software is not completely random and does not align with true randomness, then you must be saying it's rigged.
Unless you're just saying that basically, during your DYMs, you 'ran bad' and the A came on the flop 50% of time? If that is what you're saying, then I believe you (although there's always some selective memory in these spots) that this happened but to change your game because of it is a mistake. I can tell you that the other night I got it in preflop in cash with AA v JJ and lost, but that's never gonna stop me getting AA in pre.
In Response to Re: DYM spot (please move to clinc) : Oh dear, it's the actions hands to induce action arguement lol. Few points... 1) When an A comes, that doesn't mean they have it 2) It's probably the worst card to induce action cos most people won't put much in the pot with KK when an Ace is out, so it would have the opposite effect. If they wanted action wouldn't they just deal the other person AA and put out a blank flop? 3) If you genuinely believe the site is rigged, why would you choose to play here? Posted by Lambert180
i never said that this site or any other is rigged Paul i was simply giving my opinion on something that i'd noticed during my recent challenge. i think that some of the things that i have mentioned have possibly been taken the wrong way,which is a shame. i only came to this post to offer my opinion on a certain hand that had been played,where that player was asking/seeking some advice,which i gave, and to the best of my ability. i did not come here looking or seeking an argument with anyone. if i have offended anyone,then i am sorry,and apologise. clearly we have a difference of opinion here and that probably won't change. i think it best if we leave it now and move on. yours sincerely devonfish5.
hi jams, how you have played this hand is exactly how many players would play it, a 3x raise pre-flop then check and fold to that bet post -flop. and it's not the best way that you could play it. you have basically lost 300 chips holding KK the second best pre-flop hand available to you. that is about 1/7 or 14% of your chips when you have KK it is likely that an ace will appear on the flop about 50% of the time. a better way to play the hand and the same goes for QQ here too,would be; min raise pre-flop so 100 opponent calls the 100 pot is now 350 you obviously don't like that Ace on flop, but there are 350 chips to play for,and it doesn't automatically mean that your opponent has to have an Ace himself,although it is likely likely he could. you now bet 150/200 something around there,if your opponent has the Ace he will probably just call you here. if he doesn't have it,he will probably fold,thinking that you have one yourself. you then win the 350 chips. if your opponent does have the Ace as you suspected and has called your 150/200 bet ok. turn card comes,no king...you now check opponent probably bets and you now fold. you have lost 250/300 chips in total. but you are no worse off and you could have won the hand and 350 chips if as i said,he didn't have the Ace which he won't have some of the time. if the blinds had been bigger here say 200/400 (even 150/300 that's 450 chips about 20-25%) then there are 600 chips 'up for grabs' that is about 30% of your stack...you want those chips.they would put you chip leader. you could now simply go 'all-in' here,pre-flop. it is most likely everyone will fold.great that's what you want. you have won all those chips with no risk. someone would need a 'good hand' to call you. any Ace rag should fold. far better than having to play out the hand and seeing that horrible Ace. ps; i re-wrote this as i wasn't particularly happy with my original post. :)dev pps;as played here by yourself jams, post flop.there are 750 chips 'up for grabs' bet 200/300 and try to win them,hoping opponent has missed his hand and folds if he has an ACE,or pretends he has,and either calls or re-raises your bet,you then have to fold at some point,i think. Posted by devonfish5
Thanky you for taking the time to reply to this Dev. If we min raise are we not in danger of getting multiple callers? if you see an A on the flop with 3way action its almost certain that somebody is playing 1. My thought were if i bet fold here it leaves me with a slightly less than 8 bb stack. Can we not check acept we will be bluffed a cetain % of the time but as we are oop let it go still surviving in the torunament with a larger stack?
LOL - sorry this is funny tho. Just had KK in the bb in the £11 super stack.... I raise a limper he calls. flop comes A K x. all the money goes in I double up vs A10.
In Response to Re: DYM spot (please move to clinc) : I may be really confused here Devon lol so please excuse me if I'm being really stupid. The laws of probability state that an Ace will not come on the flop 50% over a long enough sample, that is a fact. So if Sky's software is not completely random and does not align with true randomness, then you must be saying it's rigged. Unless you're just saying that basically, during your DYMs, you 'ran bad' and the A came on the flop 50% of time? If that is what you're saying, then I believe you (although there's always some selective memory in these spots) that this happened but to change your game because of it is a mistake. I can tell you that the other night I got it in preflop in cash with AA v JJ and lost, but that's never gonna stop me getting AA in pre. Posted by Lambert180
i shouldn't really reply here Paul especially after my previous post,but i will, i was simply making my opinion known and that was,again, whenever a player had KK an Ace 'seemed' to flop 'about' 50% of the time. i am not going to get into any debate concerning the rng as it is clearly a 'taboo' subject here at sky poker. also,changing my game was not 'a mistake'as you put it,quite the contrary in fact,it was a factor in my winning of a thousand pounds,oh... ok,£500 then lols that's all Paul best wishes dev
LOL - sorry this is funny tho. Just had KK in the bb in the £11 super stack.... I raise a limper he calls. flop comes A K x. all the money goes in I double up vs A10. 1/1 so far Dev ;-) Posted by percival09
In Response to Re: DYM spot (please move to clinc) : Thanky you for taking the time to reply to this Dev. If we min raise are we not in danger of getting multiple callers? if you see an A on the flop with 3way action its almost certain that somebody is playing 1. My thought were if i bet fold here it leaves me with a slightly less than 8 bb stack. Can we not check acept we will be bluffed a cetain % of the time but as we are oop let it go still surviving in the torunament with a larger stack? Posted by jams88
hi jams i'll try and answer 1 thing at a time here, firstly thank you for thanking me. yes,if we min raise we are in some danger of getting multiple callers. but you need to weigh up what is the best line to take here. if, and let's not go there again, lol, you see an Ace on the flop,it doesn't really matter if you are 3 way or more or heads up with just 1 player,you don't like it,and fear the worst. you were right not to bet then fold as your stack isn't big enough for that. yes,of course you can check allowing your opponent the opportunity to possibly bluff you, but if you had made some even little bet there,then they could have possibly been your 750 chips. that is why only betting 100 pre-flop instead of the 300 that you bet,and then betting the turn yourself would be a better line to take,as you would have still only lost the same chips.
yes DYM is all about surviving but you also need to be more aggressive when you decide to play a hand. best wishes dev
In Response to Re: DYM spot (please move to clinc) : i shouldn't really reply here Paul especially after my previous post,but i will, i was simply making my opinion known and that was,again, whenever a player had KK an Ace 'seemed' to flop 'about' 50% of the time. i am not going to get into any debate concerning the rng as it is clearly a 'taboo' subject here at sky poker. also,changing my game was not 'a mistake'as you put it,quite the contrary in fact,it was a factor in my winning of a thousand pounds,oh... ok,£500 then lols that's all Paul best wishes dev Posted by devonfish5
I really think some people are missing the point.I may be wrong Dev,but you are saying you have found an ace comes on the flop 50% of the time,for people to say this is wrong is bs.You are not saying anything about rigged or anything it is just something you have noticed whether it be through selective memory or not.Some people wanna just make noise for the sake of it and think other peoples views are worthless.Of course an ace shouldn't land on the flop 50% of the time but if it is what has happened to you then that is how you have to call it.
Its about 23%. In the long term it prob does even itself out to that. You prob just dont remember the times u had KK on a bricked flop when everyone folds to the cbet. Just the great way our mind remembers things.
Exactly. I don't doubt Dev for a second that this is what happened to him, but to give advice based on results is bad IMO.
It would be like me advising someone to call a shove with 58o because the last 5 times I've done it, I've won. Obviously an extreme example, but past results have zero bearing on what is or is not a +EV move
Comments
not my theory buddy just my observation and therefore my opinion.
i've thrown down a challenge to anyone that wants to take it up.
then we will have a better idea.
but unless anyone is prepared to do it,i guess we will never know,will we?
anyway m8,i know what i saw or i guess you would possibly argue,thought i saw.
as i've already said... someone, prove me wrong.
dev
doesn't mean they 'will flop'
anyways,i'm not changing anyones minds on this one.
so i'll except that you are all right and i am wrong here.
"just try loading up 15+ tables for 134 days playing 2 sessions some days and playing an average of 3 to 4 hours a day,and playing KK god knows how many times,and see if you still feel the same way.?
(* *)
^
dev
as i've said i except that i'm wrong here,
but i'm simply giving 'my opinion' of what 'i saw' through playing my challenge
and also i was just giving 'my opinion' as to the best way to play KK.
just for me though mate,
and just for fun if you like...
count up for me just how many times an Ace does come.
i would be interested to know what stats that you come up with..and then please let me know.
(* *)
^
dev
this is only an observation that i have made when holding KK
(* *)
^
dev.
ps; and if you think about ,which i'm sure you already have,wouldn't it make sense for an Ace to come 'more often than normal here' simply to induce action?
1) When an A comes, that doesn't mean they have it
2) It's probably the worst card to induce action cos most people won't put much in the pot with KK when an Ace is out, so it would have the opposite effect. If they wanted action wouldn't they just deal the other person AA and put out a blank flop?
3) If you genuinely believe the site is rigged, why would you choose to play here?
at last,someone has actually given this some credence and is prepared to at least 'investigate' my thoughts.
i never said that the rng is rigged,or suggested it,that would be wrong,wouldn't it.
i gave my opinion and that was that i thought that when someone held KK an Ace would flop 'about' 50% of the time,that's all.
i look forward to 'your findings' buddy
and thanks
dev
The laws of probability state that an Ace will not come on the flop 50% over a long enough sample, that is a fact. So if Sky's software is not completely random and does not align with true randomness, then you must be saying it's rigged.
Unless you're just saying that basically, during your DYMs, you 'ran bad' and the A came on the flop 50% of time? If that is what you're saying, then I believe you (although there's always some selective memory in these spots) that this happened but to change your game because of it is a mistake. I can tell you that the other night I got it in preflop in cash with AA v JJ and lost, but that's never gonna stop me getting AA in pre.
i was simply giving my opinion on something that i'd noticed during my recent challenge.
i think that some of the things that i have mentioned have possibly been taken the wrong way,which is a shame.
i only came to this post to offer my opinion on a certain hand that had been played,where that player was asking/seeking some advice,which i gave, and to the best of my ability.
i did not come here looking or seeking an argument with anyone.
if i have offended anyone,then i am sorry,and apologise.
clearly we have a difference of opinion here and that probably won't change.
i think it best if we leave it now and move on.
yours sincerely
devonfish5.
ps;no hard feelings,i hope
My thought were if i bet fold here it leaves me with a slightly less than 8 bb stack. Can we not check acept we will be bluffed a cetain % of the time but as we are oop let it go still surviving in the torunament with a larger stack?
especially after my previous post,but i will,
i was simply making my opinion known and that was,again, whenever a player had KK an Ace 'seemed' to flop 'about' 50% of the time.
i am not going to get into any debate concerning the rng as it is clearly a 'taboo' subject here at sky poker.
also,changing my game was not 'a mistake'as you put it,quite the contrary in fact,it was a factor in my winning of a thousand pounds,oh... ok,£500 then lols
that's all Paul
best wishes
dev
lols
dev
i'll try and answer 1 thing at a time here,
firstly thank you for thanking me.
yes,if we min raise we are in some danger of getting multiple callers.
but you need to weigh up what is the best line to take here.
if, and let's not go there again, lol, you see an Ace on the flop,it doesn't really matter if you are 3 way or more or heads up with just 1 player,you don't like it,and fear the worst.
you were right not to bet then fold as your stack isn't big enough for that.
yes,of course you can check allowing your opponent the opportunity to possibly bluff you, but if you had made some even little bet there,then they could have possibly been your 750 chips.
that is why only betting 100 pre-flop instead of the 300 that you bet,and then betting the turn yourself would be a better line to take,as you would have still only lost the same chips.
yes DYM is all about surviving but you also need to be more aggressive when you decide to play a hand.
best wishes
dev
It would be like me advising someone to call a shove with 58o because the last 5 times I've done it, I've won. Obviously an extreme example, but past results have zero bearing on what is or is not a +EV move