Go on then, after taking a break from posting, I'm quite looking forward to the Scottish Open, so I'll havbe a waffle.
I've not been doing too badly in recent weeks, I managed to 'lump on' the magnificent GMAC in running last week and I've had a few decent place returns (66/1, 80/1 and 150/1, I kid you not), but whats missing from the recent cv is.... Pre tournament I backed player X at big value to one and he got the job done.
So this week with a links course and windy conditions forecast at least for day one, I feel like I'm in the zone, as I love wathcing this type of golf and I have a cluster of players in the memory banks that I know should perform well in the predicted conditions.
These players tend to have good weeks in windy conditions and / or on fast firm courses, events like the Scotish and Irish Opens, the Dutch KLM Open, Qatar Masters, Ballentines at Icheon and they also tend to equip themselves pretty well at The Open.
So the tough part is narrowing down the cluster to 2 or 3, or 4 or 5.
Jamie Donaldson priced at 20/1 - 25/1 perhaps has the strongest credentials this week. He won the Irisih Open at Portrush, he has numerous other top performances in similar conditions, he's really raised his game over the last couple of years, he's current form is strong and when he stands over a putt anywhere on the green he looks like he could hole it, he rolls the ball so well. That said I'm not on Jamie Donaldson, but I know a man who is, so I wish him and Jamie Donaldson the best of luck.
The Player Most Likely to Get The Job Done at Big Value to One.
Rafael Cabrera-Bello - 66/1, Very similar credentials, to Donaldson, though not quite matched Donaldsons achievements and recognition in the recent majors and world campionships. Cabrera-Bello was in fact runner up to Donaldson at the Irish Open, you will quite often find both players are close to each other on leaderboards, two weeks ago Rafa lost a play off in Germany, Donaldson finished one shot out of the play off, Rafa's best finish in a major was last years Open, he was in 2nd place after day one, he has numerous top 5 and top 10 finishes when conditions are similar to those this week. So at roughly 3 times the price of Donaldson, Rafael Cabrera-Bello is my main bet this week
Paul Casey - 40/1, I like the fact that he's won in Scotland twice before, I like the fact that he's won the Irish Open, I like the fact that he's won in Abu Dhabi twice (an event that Donaldson has also won), I like the fact that he as performed well at and come close to winning The Open, I like the fact that after playing well during a very busy schedule, he has taken a couple of weeks off, I like the fact his off course issues appear to be beind him, he has a fiancee and they are expecting their first child, I like the fact that this world class player is 40/1!
Alvaros Quiros - 100/1, A little more tentative with Quiros, he's definitely on his way back to form and his A game, but isn't quite there yet on the consitenty front. He's won in the wind in the past, he plays well at St Andrews but has not excelled on other Open Courses, I'm not sure if his brutal strength off the tee will be an advantage this week, but he does tend to perform better than most when the wind blows. He might be worth a dabble in the FRL market.
A Couple of My Favourites that can't be Ignored
Danny Willett - 66/1, Danny Willett has been playing very well this season and if he can remain fully fit for a WHOLE week, he must be very close to his second win on tour. He's a quality links player who can handle the conditions rain or shine. 66/1 seems very generous.
Matthew Baldwin - 100/1, You'd think two top 5's in his last 3 starts would be enough to worry the bookies. Southport / Royal Birkdale resident, his bread and butter is links golf, he's even starting to get noticed by a few of the golfing commentators who have been praising his game and potential. It seems the bookies still think Matthew Baldwin is more potential than real deal. He's already having a big season, over the next 2 weeks it could become a massive career defining season for Matthew Baldwin and I'm on at 100/1 this week and 300/1 next week.
A couple of players woth a mention are the two locals with the course knowledge, Paul Lawrie - 80/1 and Richie Ramsay - 100/1, Lawrie is coming back from injury, Ramsay had to pull out last week with injury (describes himself as 50/50 to play this week), so local knowledge may be the best thing they've got going for them right now, but I hasten to add that both players belong in my cluster group of players who consistently perform well in aforementioned events and conditions.
Into the well once more... Early Tee Time on a Thurs for one R McLroy means only one thing.. He leads.. He fades... He comes back... And finishes between 2nd and 10th.... So it's Mclroy 25/1 win only 1st round leader.... My only outright bet is Stenson 25/1 ew 1st six Gl guys Ps bring me gl vibes guys....Playing Day 1c of the UKIPT tomoz (sat'd in for £55, so result already tbh) Posted by joesman1
I've dug this little gem out.... Rory surpassing himself today. Shoots 63 in the 1st round, and he's nearly shot that already in his 2nd round..... After 9 holes!!!
One of the best pointers/tips posted on here this year.
It would have been even more impressive if the bloke that posted it (twice) had been on Rory for FRL yesterday.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2014 Season! (Madeira Islands + The Players) : Into the well once more... Early Tee Time on a Thurs for one R McLroy means only one thin g.. He leads.. He fades... He comes back... And finishes between 2nd and 10t h.... So it's Mclroy 25/1 win only 1st round leader .... My only outright bet is Stenson 25/1 ew 1st six Gl guys Ps bring me gl vibes guys....Playing Day 1c of the UKIPT tomoz (sat'd in for £55, so result already tbh) Posted by joesman1 I've dug this little gem out.... Rory surpassing himself today. Shoots 63 in the 1st round, and he's nearly shot that already in his 2nd round..... After 9 holes!!! One of the best pointers/tips posted on here this year. It would have been even more impressive if the bloke that posted it (twice) had been on Rory for FRL yesterday. Posted by TheDart
All mouth no action..... That's my problem lol.....
Another good read above Mr Dart, I won't even try to match it. But for a change, I'll also put my two pennith forward. My main bet Jamie Donaldson 22/1, followed by Gallagher 45/1, Cabrera-Bello 66/1, and finally Warren 110/1. All ew the 1st 6. As for the USA, just the one (strong) fancy, win only and an ew bet on Speith 12/1 Posted by joesman1
A cpl of late bets for the Open nxt Week. Should suit conditions and playing some good golf Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit The Open Championship 2014 Victor Dubuisson Winner 140 £2.50 £347.50 Ref: 39112693319M Matched: 15:08 12-Jul-14 Mikko Ilonen Winner 85 £4.00 £336.00 Ref: 39112693324M Matched: 15:08 12-Jul-14 Placed these a cpl of months back. Price has drifted on Westwood but some have come in £5 Westwood -24/1 £5 Oustunhuizen - 65/1 £4 Senden 249/1 £5 Kaymer 32/1 £5 Rose 28/1 GL EDIT - Didn,t know Westwood had drifted so much . Surely he can,t have gone that downhill in last few weeks Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit The Open Championship 2014 Lee Westwood Winner 50 £2.00 £98.00 Ref: 39113133103M Matched: 15:14 12-Jul-14 Took a cpl of tips of here and backed Grace last year : Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit The Open Championship 2014 Branden Grace Winner 250 £2.00 £498.00 Ref: 39113564762M Matched: 15:21 12-Jul-14 Paul Lawrie Winner 400 £2.00 £798.00 Ref: 39113564767M Matched: 15:21 12-Jul-14 Matthew Baldwin Winner 410.8 £2.00 £819.60 Ref: 39113564772M Matched: 15:21 12-Jul-14 Posted by MP33
Good picks with good value there MP33.
They'd all make my shortlist, though at the moment my shortlist is probably 50 players long
Right then first off I'll declare my ante post bets for this years Open.
These can be a bit like buying something in the sales, they looked a good buy at the time, but once you get them home, you start to realise why they were in the sales in the first place!
Graeme Mcdowell - 40/1, very pleased with this deal, only downside is it's 5 places. He lead here in 2006 after round 1. He won last time out in France, which is a match with his US Open win in 2010, where he won the Wales Open, took a week off and won the US Open. He's a proven links player and says Hoylake suits his game. With 33/1 on offer I may well have a top up.
Shane Lowry - 140/1, definitely swayed by a visit to the sales and the price on offer for Lowry at the time. He undoubtedly has the game for Links golf with a great short game and on the big stage his 2nd at Wentworth was very impressive.
Danny Willett - 150/1, I believe Danny Willlett will win one of these one day and given his current form this could be his first chance to have a decent run at competing at The Open. He got to the top of the amateur game thanks to a lot of high quality golf on links courses. More recently he tied 15th in The Open last year. Even more recently his form reads, tied 45th in debut at US Open where only run away winner Martin Kaymer made more birdies (one more to be precise), then since the US Open, Willett has finished 3rd, 8th and 11th, the tied 11th was a never nearer tied 11th at last weeks Scottish Open, so no mental fatigue from the pressures of trying to win the event on the Sunday, but must be very happy / confident with the sharpness of his links game as he moved through the field. So stupid are some of these bookies, I think they may actually push Willett's price out to 175/1 or even 200/1, if they do there'll get my £1 ew post haste!
Matthew Balwin - 300/1, Southport resident and Royal Birkdale member, just up the road from Hoylake. As a tour rookie he played the Open in 2012, where he finished tied 23rd, but for a double bogey on his 71st hole he would have finished tied 9th. That may seem a bit of an odd fact to know, but when you consider I backed him at 20/1 to finish top 20, you may understand why I remember such seemingly irrelevant trivia. He also has a tied 5th in the Scottish Open and other impressive results in links type events. His recent form reads, 3rd, mc, 5th, mc, so on current form he's nailed on for a top 5 this week, or would the mathematicians claim a 7th place finish is more likely? Anyway, that's 4 top 5's this season it's a big ask to get his first tour win at a major, but it's not as daft as it sounds as weeks like this should give Baldwin an advantage over many in the field.
My selections based on research and development (of betting strategy's), will be posted at a later date.
Another good read above Mr Dart, I won't even try to match it. But for a change, I'll also put my two pennith forward. My main bet Jamie Donaldson 22/1, followed by Gallagher 45/1, Cabrera-Bello 66/1, and finally Warren 110/1. All ew the 1st 6. As for the USA, just the one (strong) fancy, win only and an ew bet on Speith 12/1 Posted by joesman1
For me the week leading up to The Open, is all about cramming in some research, be it course conditions, weather forecasts, tee times, recent player form, course form and keeping tabs on the movement in the market, trying to strike when the best odds are on offer.
Monday, looked like being a day of sit and wait, but the first bet of Open week has been placed!
Matteo Mannessero - 125/1 (6 places), considering he has already won 4 times on tour, it seems incredible than he only turned 21 in April tihis year. With all the hype the media like to build around young super talents, it seems equally incredible that Mannessero stays relatively low under the media radar.
He minds his own business, makes a lot of cuts, cruises along for a few months and then suddenly everything clicks into place and he strikes for the win.
Last year he won the PGA Championship at Wentworth, that's a big deal at any stage in a pro's career but to do it at 20 years old proves he is a special talent, with the confidence and belief to take on the very best on the biggest stages in golf.
Last week without really being in contention, he was an eye catching 4th at the Scottish Open, so the links game is ready.
In the 2009 Open, as a 16 year old amateur he finished tied 13th just 4 shots behind Cink and Tom Watson, so he's shown he can handle tough conditions in the worlds greatest tournament.
I don't really understand why he appears to be friendless in the betting markets this week, well at 125/1 6 places, Matteo can be my friend for the week.
Gmac ew 1st 6 33/1..... Sergio win only 28/1 and ew 1st 7 25/1..... Donald enhanced win only 58/1 and ew 1st 7 50/1..... Gallagher ew 1st 7 80/1..... Mannessero ew 1st 6 135/1 (listened to Mr Dart and totally agree, plus loved getting a bigger price lol). Finally totally left-field Ryan Palmer ew 1st 6 250/1 and top USA player ew 1st 4 90/1...
Gl all
Edit:- Could be an expensive week.... Talked into backing all my players ew for FRL.... Gmac 40/1 Sergio 35/1 Donald 66/1 Gallagher 80/1 Mannessero 100/1 Palmer 150/1 all 1st six....
With One Bookmaker offering 1/4 odds first 8, i couldn't resist pulling the trigger and investing in the players that were hovering on my shortlist.
Rickie Fowler -40/1, He clearly loves links golf and seems to have a knack for peaking at majors. Tied 8th at the Scottish Open last week, tied 5th in The Open in 2011, tied 5th and tied 2nd in the first 2 majors of the year.
Paul Casey - 50/1, Last week at the Scottish Open he began day 3 in 8th place, but opened with a NINE, which dropped him down to 69th position in one hole, he then played the next 35 holes in 11 under and climbeb back up to a final finising position of tied 14th.
You can look at that 2 ways he's either struggling with consistency or if you ignore that one hole, put it down to bad luck and you go with the theory he's back to his very best. Truth be told even when he was ranked world number 3, it was only the odd hole or bad round that had stopped him from winning a major.
He was close, very close to winning a major before injuries and once again I think he is very close to winning a major.
Jimmy Walker - 80/1, currently leads the Fed-Ex Cup on the PGA Tour thanks to THREE wins this season, two of those wins have come on windy courses, one of which was the links at Pebble Beach.
He's a Texan, grew up playing in the wind and his best result have undoubtedly been with either or both, windy conditions and links courses. One blip is he made his debut at The open last year but missed the cut, but this was before he became a three time PGA Tour winner.He played The Scottish Open last week finishing in the middle of the pack.
He's had his best finishes at The Masters and US Open this year, with top tens. Great short game, great putter, in the form of his life, I think the Brits are underestimating Jimmy Walker.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello - 150/1, I fancied him strongly last week and for a while I thought he was going to deliver on a place return, but ultimately came up short, the positive could be that last week he got in 4 rounds of quality links golf and maintained his current run of form.
Good links player, good wind player, good current form, good price, good luck!
I've done no research this week at all, I have been busy with other things and just not really had my head in the golf world for a while now.
I had a quick skim through the odds, and I saw Ryan Moore was as long as 150/1, I thought he was in decent form, and after checking on the PGA website he has indeed finished 5th and 7th in his last 2 tournaments. As I went to place the bet his odds changed from 150/1 right down to 80/1! So I had to take 125/1 from a different bookies.
Like I said, no research, so I'm just going to stick with the 1 bet this week.
Ok so far I'm on as follows:- Gmac ew 1st 6 33/1..... Sergio win only 28/1 and ew 1st 7 25/1..... Donald enhanced win only 58/1 and ew 1st 7 50/1..... Gallagher ew 1st 7 80/1..... Mannessero ew 1st 6 135/1 (listened to Mr Dart and totally agree, plus loved getting a bigger price lol). Finally totally left-field Ryan Palmer ew 1st 6 250/1 and top USA player ew 1st 4 90/1... Gl all Edit:- Could be an expensive week.... Talked into backing all my players ew for FRL.... Gmac 40/1 Sergio 35/1 Donald 66/1 Gallagher 80/1 Mannessero 100/1 Palmer 150/1 all 1st six.... Posted by joesman1
Comments
Go on then, after taking a break from posting, I'm quite looking forward to the Scottish Open, so I'll havbe a waffle.
I've not been doing too badly in recent weeks, I managed to 'lump on' the magnificent GMAC in running last week and I've had a few decent place returns (66/1, 80/1 and 150/1, I kid you not), but whats missing from the recent cv is.... Pre tournament I backed player X at big value to one and he got the job done.
So this week with a links course and windy conditions forecast at least for day one, I feel like I'm in the zone, as I love wathcing this type of golf and I have a cluster of players in the memory banks that I know should perform well in the predicted conditions.
These players tend to have good weeks in windy conditions and / or on fast firm courses, events like the Scotish and Irish Opens, the Dutch KLM Open, Qatar Masters, Ballentines at Icheon and they also tend to equip themselves pretty well at The Open.
So the tough part is narrowing down the cluster to 2 or 3, or 4 or 5.
Jamie Donaldson priced at 20/1 - 25/1 perhaps has the strongest credentials this week. He won the Irisih Open at Portrush, he has numerous other top performances in similar conditions, he's really raised his game over the last couple of years, he's current form is strong and when he stands over a putt anywhere on the green he looks like he could hole it, he rolls the ball so well.
That said I'm not on Jamie Donaldson, but I know a man who is, so I wish him and Jamie Donaldson the best of luck.
The Player Most Likely to Get The Job Done at Big Value to One.
Rafael Cabrera-Bello - 66/1, Very similar credentials, to Donaldson, though not quite matched Donaldsons achievements and recognition in the recent majors and world campionships.
Cabrera-Bello was in fact runner up to Donaldson at the Irish Open, you will quite often find both players are close to each other on leaderboards, two weeks ago Rafa lost a play off in Germany, Donaldson finished one shot out of the play off, Rafa's best finish in a major was last years Open, he was in 2nd place after day one, he has numerous top 5 and top 10 finishes when conditions are similar to those this week.
So at roughly 3 times the price of Donaldson, Rafael Cabrera-Bello is my main bet this week
Paul Casey - 40/1, I like the fact that he's won in Scotland twice before, I like the fact that he's won the Irish Open, I like the fact that he's won in Abu Dhabi twice (an event that Donaldson has also won), I like the fact that he as performed well at and come close to winning The Open, I like the fact that after playing well during a very busy schedule, he has taken a couple of weeks off, I like the fact his off course issues appear to be beind him, he has a fiancee and they are expecting their first child, I like the fact that this world class player is 40/1!
Alvaros Quiros - 100/1, A little more tentative with Quiros, he's definitely on his way back to form and his A game, but isn't quite there yet on the consitenty front. He's won in the wind in the past, he plays well at St Andrews but has not excelled on other Open Courses, I'm not sure if his brutal strength off the tee will be an advantage this week, but he does tend to perform better than most when the wind blows. He might be worth a dabble in the FRL market.
A Couple of My Favourites that can't be Ignored
Danny Willett - 66/1, Danny Willett has been playing very well this season and if he can remain fully fit for a WHOLE week, he must be very close to his second win on tour. He's a quality links player who can handle the conditions rain or shine. 66/1 seems very generous.
Matthew Baldwin - 100/1, You'd think two top 5's in his last 3 starts would be enough to worry the bookies. Southport / Royal Birkdale resident, his bread and butter is links golf, he's even starting to get noticed by a few of the golfing commentators who have been praising his game and potential. It seems the bookies still think Matthew Baldwin is more potential than real deal. He's already having a big season, over the next 2 weeks it could become a massive career defining season for Matthew Baldwin and I'm on at 100/1 this week and 300/1 next week.
A couple of players woth a mention are the two locals with the course knowledge, Paul Lawrie - 80/1 and Richie Ramsay - 100/1, Lawrie is coming back from injury, Ramsay had to pull out last week with injury (describes himself as 50/50 to play this week), so local knowledge may be the best thing they've got going for them right now, but I hasten to add that both players belong in my cluster group of players who consistently perform well in aforementioned events and conditions.
Good Luck Everyone!
Posted by joesman1
One of the best pointers/tips posted on here this year.
It would have been even more impressive if the bloke that posted it (twice) had been on Rory for FRL yesterday.
£5 Westwood -24/1
£5 Oustunhuizen - 65/1
£4 Senden 249/1
£5 Kaymer 32/1
£5 Rose 28/1
GL
EDIT - Didn,t know Westwood had drifted so much . Surely he can,t have gone that downhill in last few weeks
Keep it up for The Open.
They'd all make my shortlist, though at the moment my shortlist is probably 50 players long
These can be a bit like buying something in the sales, they looked a good buy at the time, but once you get them home, you start to realise why they were in the sales in the first place!
Graeme Mcdowell - 40/1, very pleased with this deal, only downside is it's 5 places. He lead here in 2006 after round 1. He won last time out in France, which is a match with his US Open win in 2010, where he won the Wales Open, took a week off and won the US Open. He's a proven links player and says Hoylake suits his game. With 33/1 on offer I may well have a top up.
Shane Lowry - 140/1, definitely swayed by a visit to the sales and the price on offer for Lowry at the time. He undoubtedly has the game for Links golf with a great short game and on the big stage his 2nd at Wentworth was very impressive.
Danny Willett - 150/1, I believe Danny Willlett will win one of these one day and given his current form this could be his first chance to have a decent run at competing at The Open. He got to the top of the amateur game thanks to a lot of high quality golf on links courses. More recently he tied 15th in The Open last year.
Even more recently his form reads, tied 45th in debut at US Open where only run away winner Martin Kaymer made more birdies (one more to be precise), then since the US Open, Willett has finished 3rd, 8th and 11th, the tied 11th was a never nearer tied 11th at last weeks Scottish Open, so no mental fatigue from the pressures of trying to win the event on the Sunday, but must be very happy / confident with the sharpness of his links game as he moved through the field.
So stupid are some of these bookies, I think they may actually push Willett's price out to 175/1 or even 200/1, if they do there'll get my £1 ew post haste!
Matthew Balwin - 300/1, Southport resident and Royal Birkdale member, just up the road from Hoylake. As a tour rookie he played the Open in 2012, where he finished tied 23rd, but for a double bogey on his 71st hole he would have finished tied 9th. That may seem a bit of an odd fact to know, but when you consider I backed him at 20/1 to finish top 20, you may understand why I remember such seemingly irrelevant trivia.
He also has a tied 5th in the Scottish Open and other impressive results in links type events.
His recent form reads, 3rd, mc, 5th, mc, so on current form he's nailed on for a top 5 this week, or would the mathematicians claim a 7th place finish is more likely?
Anyway, that's 4 top 5's this season it's a big ask to get his first tour win at a major, but it's not as daft as it sounds as weeks like this should give Baldwin an advantage over many in the field.
My selections based on research and development (of betting strategy's), will be posted at a later date.
Good Luck ALL!!!!
Monday, looked like being a day of sit and wait, but the first bet of Open week has been placed!
Matteo Mannessero - 125/1 (6 places), considering he has already won 4 times on tour, it seems incredible than he only turned 21 in April tihis year. With all the hype the media like to build around young super talents, it seems equally incredible that Mannessero stays relatively low under the media radar.
He minds his own business, makes a lot of cuts, cruises along for a few months and then suddenly everything clicks into place and he strikes for the win.
Last year he won the PGA Championship at Wentworth, that's a big deal at any stage in a pro's career but to do it at 20 years old proves he is a special talent, with the confidence and belief to take on the very best on the biggest stages in golf.
Last week without really being in contention, he was an eye catching 4th at the Scottish Open, so the links game is ready.
In the 2009 Open, as a 16 year old amateur he finished tied 13th just 4 shots behind Cink and Tom Watson, so he's shown he can handle tough conditions in the worlds greatest tournament.
I don't really understand why he appears to be friendless in the betting markets this week, well at 125/1 6 places, Matteo can be my friend for the week.
Rickie Fowler -40/1, He clearly loves links golf and seems to have a knack for peaking at majors.
Tied 8th at the Scottish Open last week, tied 5th in The Open in 2011, tied 5th and tied 2nd in the first 2 majors of the year.
Paul Casey - 50/1, Last week at the Scottish Open he began day 3 in 8th place, but opened with a NINE, which dropped him down to 69th position in one hole, he then played the next 35 holes in 11 under and climbeb back up to a final finising position of tied 14th.
You can look at that 2 ways he's either struggling with consistency or if you ignore that one hole, put it down to bad luck and you go with the theory he's back to his very best. Truth be told even when he was ranked world number 3, it was only the odd hole or bad round that had stopped him from winning a major.
He was close, very close to winning a major before injuries and once again I think he is very close to winning a major.
Jimmy Walker - 80/1, currently leads the Fed-Ex Cup on the PGA Tour thanks to THREE wins this season, two of those wins have come on windy courses, one of which was the links at Pebble Beach.
He's a Texan, grew up playing in the wind and his best result have undoubtedly been with either or both, windy conditions and links courses. One blip is he made his debut at The open last year but missed the cut, but this was before he became a three time PGA Tour winner.He played The Scottish Open last week finishing in the middle of the pack.
He's had his best finishes at The Masters and US Open this year, with top tens.
Great short game, great putter, in the form of his life, I think the Brits are underestimating Jimmy Walker.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello - 150/1, I fancied him strongly last week and for a while I thought he was going to deliver on a place return, but ultimately came up short, the positive could be that last week he got in 4 rounds of quality links golf and maintained his current run of form.
Good links player, good wind player, good current form, good price, good luck!
I had also already thought Fowler(I always do him anyway LOL)
and Manassero looked good bets.
also interest in Stenson, Furyk, oleson and Karlson