Well with Splashies on his betting sabbatical, Flash sunning himself in Portugal and JD probably still lying down in a darkened room, here's my effort for this week:
With many players already having at least one eye on next weeks US Open it's not the best of weeks to try and break a losing streak, but beggars can't be choosers.
I've had the following singles and doubles:
Byeong-Hun An - 100/1, the 22 year old Korean, is playing on the Challenge Tour this year and picked up his biggest cheque 2 weeks ago when 2nd at the Challenge event in Austria. His strengths appear to be accuracy tee to green and he is also a 300 yards off the tee man, so his game should suit this course and I'm sure the quick return to Austria will bring a nice feel good factor to Mr An.
Russell Henley - 50/1, he missed the cut last week, but that's no big deal (well it's a bit of a small deal if you backed him last week), but the point is Henley has proven on more than one occasion that he can follow up a missed cut with a big week, in fact that's what he did earlier this season when he won the Honda Classic. He was a respectable tied 27th here last year, finishing off with a final round 66.
Eduardo De La Riva - 33/1, Having a decent season, making cuts comfortably, though there have been glimpses of a big week, he has not really got into contention, his best finish was tied 10th in Malaysia. Tied 7th here last year, his consistency tee to green and current form suggest he could get into contention this week, even if 33/1 is a little stingey.
Ryan Palmer - 25/1, For the last couple of months he has looked ready to add to his 3 tour wins, he's come very close and his past results here suggest that he should go very close again this week. Again 25/1 a bit stingey, but again beggars on long losing streaks can't be choosers!
Tyrell Hatton - 90/1 & 70/1, Potentially one of England's next big things in the golfing world, I backed him at 90/1, but by the time the prices were up for the St Judes he was into 70/1. Put in some quality displays for his first full year on tour, he already has a runners up finish and a tied 10th. He played this event last year and came a very creditable tied 19th. It could be a big week for young Tyrell Hatton.
Billy Horschel - 50/1, I had a thing for Billy earlier in the season and then gave up on him, it seemed that since then all the people who know better than me also developed a thing for Billy and tipped him for a big win most weeks he teed it up. Billy Horshchel has yet to deliver, but once again I feel drawn to Billy Horschel as a player that is doing all the important things in golf better than most and appears to be playing himself into form. Top 10 here last year to boost his credentials further. Come on Billy stop messing about and get on that leaderboard! I've also backed him at 125/1 for the US Open.
Well last week was another painful one! I make that 5 major chokes this year by my bets; Bubba last week, bjorn the week before, kuchar when he hit the water on the 18th to let Jones into a playoff and win, Thomas Aiken threw away a 4 shot lead in a final round and then coetzee early on in the season. So lady luck owes me lol
Anyhoo, moaning over, on to this weeks bets. I just don't fancy anyone this week so completely stumped for picks. very little value that i can see i mean Luiten at 5/1 is just ridiculous and just reflects the fields.
So for that reason I've only 1 outright bet this week.
Lyoness
Michael hoey 40/1 - has to be one of the most consistent this year in a weak field. (My lone outright bet)
Frl
Hoey again 45/1 same reason as above
Dredge 45/1- was very close to retiring by all accounts but back playing again and playing half decent. 3 Euro starts and finishes of t10, t15 and t25.
St judes
This is anyone's tournament for me and so no outrights for me. Might back after first round tho if see any gems.
Frls
Casey 40/1 (£10 free bet from backing during the Bubba meltdown ) this bet will all hinge on how Casey reacts to his disappointment from last week. Hoping he takes confidence from it rather go backeards
Olesen 66/1 played nicely last week but horribly inconsistent.
Due to the first round from an unknown Korean my backup Russell Henley double is:
Matthew Baldwin - 100/1, After a bad couple of months, he made the cut last week and just missed qualifying for the US Open by one shot, he reports that his game is improving and 'close' to being back.
Russell Henley - 66/1, Generous odds from SkyBet, me thinks!
Also buckled under the pressure of fancying Paul Casey and not backing him and had the following ew singles and ew double:
Paul Casey - 33/1, as I've posted before at is best he is a top, top class player. He is getting in the mix more and more often in recent weeks, he has to be close to a win and I'd hate to miss it.
Ross McGowan - 70/1, came 3rd in the Challenge event last week, which I believe is his best result in years. Seems to have been injured or not fully fit for years, before the injuries set in he was competing with the very best in Europe. He played what appears to be the more difficult back 9 in 1 under, so I took the 70/1 available in running.
Finally I've had an ew FRL singles and double:
Paul Casey - 40/1, hoping JD gets the win he deserves after his recent golfing bad beats. Matthew Baldwin - 80/1, if his game is back under control Baldwin quite often goes low on day 1.
I was going to get a few things off my chest, but have thought better of it and just deleted what would have been a rather long self indulgent post,
Needless to say I am not enjoying this poker and betting lark at the moment and am leaning towards a break, I say leaning because sometimes this is easier said than done.
Anyway, let's have one last fling and see if I go out with a whimper or bang on this weeks US OPEN.
I like the way this thread always comes alive during Major week and hopefully there'll be a few of us who get a good run for our money and make a nice profit this week.
Lee Westwood - 50/1, bet placed after encouraging US Masters, where all aspects of his game looked back in shape. Of course next time out he won on the European Tour, though he's been a little quiet since. That said Lee know's how to play the majors, he's gone close before and like MP33 says, surely he has to win a major 1 day.
Billy Horschel - 125/1, bet placed last week before St Judes Classic. For most of the season Horschel has looked good without really threatening leaderboards. He had his best finish last week with a tied 6th. I don't know what his scrambling stats were for last week, but from what I saw, he seemed to get up and down more often than not when he missed a green, which is an ability that is likely to be key at Pinehurst no. 2. He was 6th at the US Open last year and has the ideal game to do well in US Opens. I just hope do well, translates to top 5 finish.
Again its another week where no one really stands out for and ticks both the form and value boxes so I've decided to go with a new approach for an experiment. I'm calling it the Matsuyama Principle Yes im a sad lonely man lol
Let me explain.....
Whilst loooking at the form of some of the runners and riders and being completely undecided on all I looked at I looked up the form of Matsuyama. His 3 results before his win (in date order oldest first) were T38, T23, T10 and then boom his win! So as you can see his results improved week on week then the win came. Thinking is fairly straight forward, player peaking at the right time with growing confidence.
So my picks.....
Bill Haas 80/1
Recent results MC, T44, T26, T21, T8, US Open ???!
Billy Horschel 70/1
Recent results MC, T26, T15, T6, US Open???!
Worried his peak was meant to be last week and worry about his mentality should he be in one of the last groups on a Sunday (good idea john back another choker lol).
oh and....
Jason Dufner 40/1
If you look at all duffners best finishes they tend to come in the big events. In his last 51 events dufner has finished in the top 10 16 times. Those 16 top 10 finishes included 2 US opens, 1 Open Champ, 5 WGC's and 2 Fed ex cup final playoff events. So 10 of his 16 top 10 finishes are in the big events.
His average finishes (for last 51 events) are as follows:
WGC - 12th
Majors - 20th
Fed ex - 25th
Other - 34th
Those numbers tell me he likes the big events and big stage (or more likely the big pay cheques). His stats for majors would be better if he didnt suck at playing the masters and the open championship (never inside top 20).
In his last 8 PGA championships and US opens he has finished in the top 5 on 5 occasions and importantly won once on those 5 occasions!
He's overall US Open record is played 7 MC's 2, 3 nowhere's and 2 top 5's.
Current form - patchy. T19 at memorial and 2nd the week before in the crowne plaza and before that he's done very little in 2014. Not playing well or due a good result?! Only time will tell.
I was going to get a few things off my chest, but have thought better of it and just deleted what would have been a rather long self indulgent post, Needless to say I am not enjoying this poker and betting lark at the moment and am leaning towards a break, I say leaning because sometimes this is easier said than done. Anyway, let's have one last fling and see if I go out with a whimper or bang on this weeks US OPEN. I like the way this thread always comes alive during Major week and hopefully there'll be a few of us who get a good run for our money and make a nice profit this week. Good Luck Everyone! Posted by TheDart
BIG + 1 to this.... Darty knows through personal messages to him I'm having a bad time too atm. Won't bore u on here with the bad beat stories... But I'm sick too lol....
Anyways it's major week, so it would be rude not to have a bet, that plus I'm off to MARBELLA in the morning for a week of sun and poker (UKIPT) so who the f@k cares!!! Lol.....
It's Donald 40/1 and Walker 50/1 both ew 1st six for me...
Gl everyone and see u next week with a trophy hopefully.....
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2014 Season! (St Jude + Lyoness Open) : BIG + 1 to this.... Darty knows through personal messages to him I'm having a bad time too atm. Won't bore u on here with the bad beat stories... But I'm sick too lol.... Anyways it's major week, so it would be rude not to have a bet, that plus I'm off to MARBELLA in the morning for a week of sun and poker (UKIPT) so who the f@k cares!!! Lol..... It's Donald 40/1 and Walker 50/1 both ew 1st six for me... Gl everyone and see u next week with a trophy hopefully..... Posted by joesman1
Best of Luck in Marbella Neil.
Luke Donald is one of my main bets this week, so lets hope Donald breaks our Duck
Last time I had a bet on the golf was The Masters and won with Bubba thanks to this guy's tips.... http://www.golfpuntersguide.com/home-page/us-open-betting-tips-2014 Im unsure if I'll have a bet though, with all the footy on I doubt I'll watch much of it. Posted by splashies
Ahhhh, I've been pondering for the last 24 hours, if I should back Webb Simpson and I see your man has him as his main tip.
The deeper I dig into the research, the more obvious a pick he becomes, former US Open winner, great key stats for this week, grew up playing at Pinehurst no. 2, refers to it like a second home, add to that his strong finish last week and he really is an obvious pick at decent odds.
I went big on him a few weeks ago and I know Flash also fancied him strongly at one stage, only to pull out when he realized he wasn't playing
Two things have been holding me back, I missed the early 66/1 and even 50/1 so I have been sulking a bit and secondly he just looks too good to be true and when things are too good to be true they usually are.
It's like the player himself realizes before he tee's it up, that everything is set up perfectly for him to win and then he bottles it on the first day.
Or am I getting confused with the form of my own picks in recent weeks?
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2014 Season! (US Open) : Ahhhh, I've been pondering for the last 24 hours, if I should back Webb Simpson and I see your man has him as his main tip. The deeper I dig into the research, the more obvious a pick he becomes, former US Open winner, great key stats for this week, add to that his strong finish last week and he really is an obvious pick at decent odds. I went big on him a few weeks ago and I know Flash also fancied him strongly at one stage, only to pull out when he realized he wasn't playing Two things have been holding me back, I missed the early 66/1 and even 50/1 so I have been sulking a bit and secondly he just looks too good to be true and when things are too good to be true they usually are. It's like the player himself realizes before he tee's it up, that everything is set up perfectly for him to win and then he bottles it on the first day. Or am I getting confused with the form of my own picks in recent weeks? Posted by TheDart
Hey you've got AA, just get it in pre. If you get outdrawn, c'est la vie.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2014 Season! (US Open) : Hey you've got AA, just get it in pre. If you get outdrawn, c'est la vie. Posted by splashies
Yeah AA is good right?
Yep I've got add Webb to the portfolio, pushed out to a best priced 45/1 at the moment, I'll hang on for a while in case I can get 50/1.
I think I'm going to give it a miss again this week. Been pretty busy since getting back from Portugal and not had any time to think about golf form so I'll just see where my head is next week. Good luck all!
Comments
With many players already having at least one eye on next weeks US Open it's not the best of weeks to try and break a losing streak, but beggars can't be choosers.
I've had the following singles and doubles:
Byeong-Hun An - 100/1, the 22 year old Korean, is playing on the Challenge Tour this year and picked up his biggest cheque 2 weeks ago when 2nd at the Challenge event in Austria. His strengths appear to be accuracy tee to green and he is also a 300 yards off the tee man, so his game should suit this course and I'm sure the quick return to Austria will bring a nice feel good factor to Mr An.
Russell Henley - 50/1, he missed the cut last week, but that's no big deal (well it's a bit of a small deal if you backed him last week), but the point is Henley has proven on more than one occasion that he can follow up a missed cut with a big week, in fact that's what he did earlier this season when he won the Honda Classic. He was a respectable tied 27th here last year, finishing off with a final round 66.
Eduardo De La Riva - 33/1, Having a decent season, making cuts comfortably, though there have been glimpses of a big week, he has not really got into contention, his best finish was tied 10th in Malaysia. Tied 7th here last year, his consistency tee to green and current form suggest he could get into contention this week, even if 33/1 is a little stingey.
Ryan Palmer - 25/1, For the last couple of months he has looked ready to add to his 3 tour wins, he's come very close and his past results here suggest that he should go very close again this week. Again 25/1 a bit stingey, but again beggars on long losing streaks can't be choosers!
Tyrell Hatton - 90/1 & 70/1, Potentially one of England's next big things in the golfing world, I backed him at 90/1, but by the time the prices were up for the St Judes he was into 70/1. Put in some quality displays for his first full year on tour, he already has a runners up finish and a tied 10th. He played this event last year and came a very creditable tied 19th. It could be a big week for young Tyrell Hatton.
Billy Horschel - 50/1, I had a thing for Billy earlier in the season and then gave up on him, it seemed that since then all the people who know better than me also developed a thing for Billy and tipped him for a big win most weeks he teed it up. Billy Horshchel has yet to deliver, but once again I feel drawn to Billy Horschel as a player that is doing all the important things in golf better than most and appears to be playing himself into form. Top 10 here last year to boost his credentials further. Come on Billy stop messing about and get on that leaderboard! I've also backed him at 125/1 for the US Open.
Best of luck this week.
I have been pondering a bet on Casey myself this week, he comfortably qualified for the US Open Monday, so I reckon the confidence is still good.
So come on Neil, is Dustin Johnson going to get the job done this week?
Won it in 2012, 10th last year.....there's surely only one thing that can stop him winning this week.....his first name is Dustin, surname Johnson!
Matthew Baldwin - 100/1, After a bad couple of months, he made the cut last week and just missed qualifying for the US Open by one shot, he reports that his game is improving and 'close' to being back.
Russell Henley - 66/1, Generous odds from SkyBet, me thinks!
Also buckled under the pressure of fancying Paul Casey and not backing him and had the following ew singles and ew double:
Paul Casey - 33/1, as I've posted before at is best he is a top, top class player. He is getting in the mix more and more often in recent weeks, he has to be close to a win and I'd hate to miss it.
Ross McGowan - 70/1, came 3rd in the Challenge event last week, which I believe is his best result in years. Seems to have been injured or not fully fit for years, before the injuries set in he was competing with the very best in Europe. He played what appears to be the more difficult back 9 in 1 under, so I took the 70/1 available in running.
Finally I've had an ew FRL singles and double:
Paul Casey - 40/1, hoping JD gets the win he deserves after his recent golfing bad beats.
Matthew Baldwin - 80/1, if his game is back under control Baldwin quite often goes low on day 1.
Normally when posting on here the rule of thumb is you jinx your player and they drop a shot.
I just checked the Leaderboard and unless it's a mistake, Matthew Baldwin has opened with an Eagle
Just 17 holes to go, 15 pars and 2 birdies ought to do it.
Placed (matched)
Placed (matched)
I was going to get a few things off my chest, but have thought better of it and just deleted what would have been a rather long self indulgent post,
Needless to say I am not enjoying this poker and betting lark at the moment and am leaning towards a break, I say leaning because sometimes this is easier said than done.
Anyway, let's have one last fling and see if I go out with a whimper or bang on this weeks US OPEN.
I like the way this thread always comes alive during Major week and hopefully there'll be a few of us who get a good run for our money and make a nice profit this week.
Good Luck Everyone!
Lee Westwood - 50/1, bet placed after encouraging US Masters, where all aspects of his game looked back in shape. Of course next time out he won on the European Tour, though he's been a little quiet since. That said Lee know's how to play the majors, he's gone close before and like MP33 says, surely he has to win a major 1 day.
Billy Horschel - 125/1, bet placed last week before St Judes Classic. For most of the season Horschel has looked good without really threatening leaderboards. He had his best finish last week with a tied 6th. I don't know what his scrambling stats were for last week, but from what I saw, he seemed to get up and down more often than not when he missed a green, which is an ability that is likely to be key at Pinehurst no. 2. He was 6th at the US Open last year and has the ideal game to do well in US Opens. I just hope do well, translates to top 5 finish.
Luke Donald is one of my main bets this week, so lets hope Donald breaks our Duck
The deeper I dig into the research, the more obvious a pick he becomes, former US Open winner, great key stats for this week, grew up playing at Pinehurst no. 2, refers to it like a second home, add to that his strong finish last week and he really is an obvious pick at decent odds.
I went big on him a few weeks ago and I know Flash also fancied him strongly at one stage, only to pull out when he realized he wasn't playing
Two things have been holding me back, I missed the early 66/1 and even 50/1 so I have been sulking a bit and secondly he just looks too good to be true and when things are too good to be true they usually are.
It's like the player himself realizes before he tee's it up, that everything is set up perfectly for him to win and then he bottles it on the first day.
Or am I getting confused with the form of my own picks in recent weeks?
Yep I've got add Webb to the portfolio, pushed out to a best priced 45/1 at the moment, I'll hang on for a while in case I can get 50/1.