Small piece of damage limitation with the place for Aiken.
Already used my free bet to carry on with him for Dubai.
On the plus side I saw there were 4 places being paid in a 12 horse race at Leopardstown yesterday. Managed to pick up 2 places from 2 bets with one at 20/1 for a small profit.
On the minus side stuck a bet on the darts and lost, but it did bag me a £2.50 tourney token and I won the DYM I used it on.
Side note on the horses. As people will find out on the NAPS competition I know nothing about the horses. However I picked up from Neil Channing how betting on a 4 place race with 16 runners is advantageous so I have dabbled with some bets when skybet offer 4 places on shorter fields. The above mentioned Leopardstown and I landed a bigger coup today at Kempton with a 9/1 winner and a 5/1 4th place paid in a 12 horse race.
I have probably gone a bit too far on the Dubai bets. I can see why Stenson is a strong favourite and Bello short, but do not see value in either.
I have gone for a mixture of course/event/conditions form and recent form to pick...
Aiken
Blorn
McDowell
Gallacher
Larrazabal
Bjerrergaard
Olesen
Quiros
and a bit of a wildcard in Dubuisson
Cant decide on Phoenix, big change in conditions plus field now joined by Speith and Thomas. You can make a strong case for Speith Mutsuyama and Thomas and then there is the thought of whether Rahm can go back to back after his breaktrhough win. He went to uni in Arizona so knows the course and conditions well. All makes it hard to find value at the top.
Doesn't help with results or confidence when you talk yourself out of backing players you have been like Matsuyama and they pull off a win.
Big changes this week with the pro-am 3 course links in US and the move to Asia for the European Tour.
Definitely cutting right down this week after last weeks overkill.
Just gone for Larrazabal in Malaysia who has good recent and past Asian form.
And Perez and Stricker at decent odds e/w in the AT&T Pro-Am.
Might go on the hunt for in-form Asian / Australian tour players for Malaysia. For the AT&T pro-am I think I will wait and try and find some in play value after round 1. Ideally someone who is putting very well but plays the toughest course 1st so is down on the leaderboard. Also weather may be a factor to check nearer the time.
Sky have some interesting offers on the Genesis Open this week.
It is a tough classical course with a stellar field and several top players are in great form at the moment.
Sky are offering an extra place and I like the odds they are giving the field w/o Speith, D Johnson, Matsuyama and Day.
I have only risked a free bet on Matsuyama at 10/1 outright.
The rest I, have gone e/w
Walker (w/o SJMD)
Molinari (w/o SJMD)
Perez
Steele
DeLaet
edit: Probably should add I am giving the super 6 in Perth a wide berth. Great that the tour is trying something a bit different but with a less than stellar line up and the winner being decided by a series of 6 hole match play shoot outs it is pretty much a lottery.
The WGC is a big event. Nice twist that it is moved from a Trump resort in Florida to Mexico - obviosuly would have been decided well in advance of the election. I am surprised there hasn't been an executive order to move it back though.
All the top players together barring Day with McIlroy returning from injury.
There is a cluster of highly ranked and in form golfers at the top of the betting and you can make a good case for most of them.
However with no course from to go on, I have gone small on 4 players who are decent value at longer odds:
I've not been putting in as much time as I used to on the golf research, but still like to keep my eye in.
In Mexico I've spread the love and am on:
Sergio Garcia - 28/1
Gary Woodland - 50/1
Daniel Berger - 90/1
Berndt Wiesberger - 100/1
JB Holmes - 100/1
Danny Willett - 125/1
At the Tshwane Open
James Morrison - 40/1
Nacho Elvira - 45/1
Jeff Winther - 66/1
Last but by no means least as he's my main bet this week...
Adrian Otaegui - 25/1 ew 4 places Top Continental European
The top continental European market looks fairly wide open this week, 34 runners all with a chance, but no obvious favorites.
Admitedly I am on Nacho Elvira outright, but he is priced as low as 8/1 in this market.
For some reason Winther is not priced up in the market.
For real value, I like the chances of Otaegui, two years ago he went into the final round tied for the lead, eventually finishing 6th.
This year he's been making cuts, without really thratening a leaderboard, which is a year on year improvement for a player still establishing himself on tour.
When things click into place, or condtions suit he has a habit of going low, I think the 125/1 outright ew 6 places is also good value, but the top continental European looks to be the value bet this week.
After a break licking my early season wounds I will be back with a stab at the Masters. Sky have announced 8 places at 1/4 odds which looks good to me. Given Dustin's short price from recent total domination there seems plenty of value to be had. I am on McIllroy, Matsuyama and Thomas already and will have a more detailed view before picking another couple. Posted by Phantom66
Good Luck Phantom.
Yes, excellent value from SKy.
In golf terms The Masters is always a reduced field in numbers and many would say 10-20% of that field couldn't make top 8, so with 8 places being paid, my gun will be scattering a plenty leading up to this years Masters.
No watched much golf recently but a big fan of the masters and 1st 2 bets for me are £10 Mcclroy to win 17/2 £10 Bubba to win 43/1 (well overpriced imo) Posted by MP33
Comments
£10 Mcclroy to win 17/2
£10 Bubba to win 43/1 (well overpriced imo)