Looking good Flash. wp on Horsey, joesman. Posted by splashies
Interesting 3rd round to come, shame my man bogied the last yesterday. But he deserves extra credit (and Larrazabel) for coming through from the very worst of the draw. Gl Charles with Illonen, hope he comes an honourable 2nd for u lol.
Sigh, if I went with my initial pick I could of got some e/w return from Ilonen, and now Haas looks like he is trying to shoot 100 today! Posted by FlashFlush
yep ul, seems he's lost he's bottle at the business end atm.
Decided to complete my Masters picks this week, whilst I can still get decent prices. Will probably write up reasons on Masters week. Matt Kuchar 5pts e/w @ 33/1 Dustin Johnson 5pts e/w @ 40/1 Jason Dufner 5pts e/w @ 66/1 Got all 3 on PaddyPower paying 6 places. Will post Texas Open bets later today too. Posted by splashies
I like Oosthuizen's chances! Coming back into form just in time!
As for this week, past tournament form shows Tringale, Hoffman and Jacobsen are the most consistant around here, but Jacobsen has gone quiet recently, so Hoffman and Tringale seem the best picks. This course demands accurate driving, and Kohles is 5th in accurate driving so should suit him perfectly this week.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2013 Season! (Valero Texas Open) Year Profit: -31.19pts : I like Oosthuizen's chances! Coming back into form just in time! As for this week, past tournament form shows Tringale, Hoffman and Jacobsen are the most consistant around here, but Jacobsen has gone quiet recently, so Hoffman and Tringale seem the best picks. This course demands accurate driving, and Kohles is 5th in accurate driving so should suit him perfectly this week. Posted by FlashFlush
These 2 + Kuchar are my picks this week. Only b365 market up so far.
Freddy has had 3 weeks off and his previous 5 weeks read 7-3-9-25-16. So in decent nick.
Yes Louis I did consider, but didn't make my top 3.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2013 Season! (Valero Texas Open) Year Profit: -31.19pts : These 2 + Kuchar are my picks this week. Only b365 market up so far. Freddy has had 3 weeks off and his previous 5 weeks read 7-3-9-25-16. So in decent nick. Yes Louis I did consider, but didn't make my top 3. Posted by splashies
Ah, ok, that's why I hadn't seen him. I thought he had just dropped off the pace!
While I'm at it, I have been backing Louis for the Open as well! Hopefully will have a few quid on him by the time it gets there.
QUICK! Skybet have Peter Hanson @40/1! - For a player that hasn't played much this season but every tournament he has contended and some are WGC's then this could be printing money... McIlroy is well out of form, Schwartzel didn't set the world alight in his last start, so IMO Hanson should be 1 of the favourites for this
I've taken the 100/1 on Justin Leonard ew. Will pick another couple of outsiders out before it starts. I fancy another upset this week.
As for The Masters, I'm hoping Tiger gets pushed out to 4/1 before it starts. Then I'll do him ew with P Power 1/4 odds 1st 6, bet to nothing then. I'll defo be backing Dustin Johnson, and at least one other in the w/o Woods market, so taking him out of the equation.
With only one event this week, I've made 4 selections.
Jimmy Walker - 40/1, San Antonio resident, finished 3rd in this event on this course in 2010, three top 10's this season, some seriously good stats that should suit this course, very good ew value.
Jordan Spieth - 40/1, another Texan, Spieth is still only 19 years young, his amateur record is perhaps only second to Tiger in the modern game and in the handful of pro starts he has made, his record is vey impressive, so much so that he has gained 'special temporary member status' on the tour, a first tour win looks very close and once he does win, he won't be seen at 40/1 for a long time!
Brendan deJonge - 80/1, have to confess the 80/1 offered by one generous bookmaker swayed me as much as anything, he was on the short list thanks to four top 15's in 11 starts this season and high on the total driving and all round stats, so has the form and game to do well here.
James Driscoll - 150/1, best results generally come at windy venues, including a playoff defeat in this event and a tied 9th on this course, finished tied 9th at Pebble Beach this season.
I've missed the best part of 3 weeks and have been reading through the posts and found the shared opinions on how we make our selections interesting, I was thinking of sharing my strategy anyway so hear goes....
I usually have my shortlist of current favourites and this changes slightly week from week, I tend to have a decent memory (not perfect) for players who have done well at the same courses in previous years and with certain events coming up I am looking at those players to see what shape their game is in.
Of course there is plenty of media out there to help with the analysis, it's not just course form I'm looking for but also regional form, in 'Europe' there is definitely a bunch of players that perform better than others at an Asian event, same applies on the American tour, east to west coast, weather conditions and even times of the year.
So when I'm done, the final factor and deciding factor for me is the value from the bookmakers, if a player on my short list is 20/1 or less I will probably leave him alone, which I realise might be foolish, I pick a player who I think will do well, the bookies agree he has a great chance so I ignore him!
On the other hand if my short-listed player is 40/1 + I am on in a flash, my thought process is that in a field of 156 players, I am always backing to finish top 5, the win is a bonus, so I will hardly ever back the likes of Woods, Mickleson, Mcllroy etc, these players at odds of 10/1 or less will usually give you a good run for your money, but even backing them week in week out doesn't ensure a profit, anything but in my humble opinion.
Instead I'm looking for a minimum 10/1 payback if my selection finishes fifth and if he wins it's a bonus and a healthy one at that.
It's a strategy that serves me quite well, I feel a bit of a fraud but in the weeks I've been away from the forum I won on two good priced winners, Chris Wood at 100/1 and Kiradech Aphibarnrat at 50/1 and last week I came very close with Mikko Ilonen's tied 2nd at 66/1.
Examples of my strategy working and not working, is with Brandt Snedeker, last season I backed him often, I was on him at 33/1 when he won the event where Kyle Stanley imploded with an 8 on the last hole, I was on Snedeker again at 250/1 for The Open and he finished top 5, I backed him in running at 40/1 in one of the play off events and he won, I backed him ante post for The Masters at 66/1, then came Pebble Beach an event and conditions I believed were ideal for Snedeker, he was the in form player but he was a measly (in my mind) 14/1 so I left him alone and of course he won.
Finally occasionally I might have a player or two that I think the bookies are just ignoring and offering super crazy value, step forward one Graham DeLaet, over the last 6 months I have had some decent wins on this guy, 250/1 placed, 40/1 win for top rest of the world player, 130/1 placed first round leader and 10/1 to finish top 20, his odds have shortened somewhat in recent weeks, but as long as he stay's close to 100/1 I will back him at various levels until he wins or stops playing at what I believe is at a level capable of winning, or the worst possible fate in that the bookies get hold of him and his 'value' tumbles before he gets that debut win.
So there you go, that's my strategy, I find golf betting great fun and a challenge and picking a 40/1 place (or bigger), gives me so much more satisfaction than backing a 10/1 shot.
Any comments constructive or otherwise are welcome.
Good Luck All!!!
Edit: Wow I can waffle, I didn't realise I had written quite so much!
Comments
I'm back and with apologies to Splashies and Wynne for the Graham DeLaet tip.
I see he's tied 21st with a round to go which isn't bad for a 100/1 shot, but bookies don't payout on decent efforts do they!
Barring a 'best round of the day' he's not going to make top 5.
Good luck everyone, with any bet's you still have a chance with.
Jimmy Walker - 40/1, San Antonio resident, finished 3rd in this event on this course in 2010, three top 10's this season, some seriously good stats that should suit this course, very good ew value.
Jordan Spieth - 40/1, another Texan, Spieth is still only 19 years young, his amateur record is perhaps only second to Tiger in the modern game and in the handful of pro starts he has made, his record is vey impressive, so much so that he has gained 'special temporary member status' on the tour, a first tour win looks very close and once he does win, he won't be seen at 40/1 for a long time!
Brendan deJonge - 80/1, have to confess the 80/1 offered by one generous bookmaker swayed me as much as anything, he was on the short list thanks to four top 15's in 11 starts this season and high on the total driving and all round stats, so has the form and game to do well here.
James Driscoll - 150/1, best results generally come at windy venues, including a playoff defeat in this event and a tied 9th on this course, finished tied 9th at Pebble Beach this season.
I've missed the best part of 3 weeks and have been reading through the posts and found the shared opinions on how we make our selections interesting, I was thinking of sharing my strategy anyway so hear goes....
I usually have my shortlist of current favourites and this changes slightly week from week, I tend to have a decent memory (not perfect) for players who have done well at the same courses in previous years and with certain events coming up I am looking at those players to see what shape their game is in.
Of course there is plenty of media out there to help with the analysis, it's not just course form I'm looking for but also regional form, in 'Europe' there is definitely a bunch of players that perform better than others at an Asian event, same applies on the American tour, east to west coast, weather conditions and even times of the year.
So when I'm done, the final factor and deciding factor for me is the value from the bookmakers, if a player on my short list is 20/1 or less I will probably leave him alone, which I realise might be foolish, I pick a player who I think will do well, the bookies agree he has a great chance so I ignore him!
On the other hand if my short-listed player is 40/1 + I am on in a flash, my thought process is that in a field of 156 players, I am always backing to finish top 5, the win is a bonus, so I will hardly ever back the likes of Woods, Mickleson, Mcllroy etc, these players at odds of 10/1 or less will usually give you a good run for your money, but even backing them week in week out doesn't ensure a profit, anything but in my humble opinion.
Instead I'm looking for a minimum 10/1 payback if my selection finishes fifth and if he wins it's a bonus and a healthy one at that.
It's a strategy that serves me quite well, I feel a bit of a fraud but in the weeks I've been away from the forum I won on two good priced winners, Chris Wood at 100/1 and Kiradech Aphibarnrat at 50/1 and last week I came very close with Mikko Ilonen's tied 2nd at 66/1.
Examples of my strategy working and not working, is with Brandt Snedeker, last season I backed him often, I was on him at 33/1 when he won the event where Kyle Stanley imploded with an 8 on the last hole, I was on Snedeker again at 250/1 for The Open and he finished top 5, I backed him in running at 40/1 in one of the play off events and he won, I backed him ante post for The Masters at 66/1, then came Pebble Beach an event and conditions I believed were ideal for Snedeker, he was the in form player but he was a measly (in my mind) 14/1 so I left him alone and of course he won.
Finally occasionally I might have a player or two that I think the bookies are just ignoring and offering super crazy value, step forward one Graham DeLaet, over the last 6 months I have had some decent wins on this guy, 250/1 placed, 40/1 win for top rest of the world player, 130/1 placed first round leader and 10/1 to finish top 20, his odds have shortened somewhat in recent weeks, but as long as he stay's close to 100/1 I will back him at various levels until he wins or stops playing at what I believe is at a level capable of winning, or the worst possible fate in that the bookies get hold of him and his 'value' tumbles before he gets that debut win.
So there you go, that's my strategy, I find golf betting great fun and a challenge and picking a 40/1 place (or bigger), gives me so much more satisfaction than backing a 10/1 shot.
Any comments constructive or otherwise are welcome.
Good Luck All!!!
Edit: Wow I can waffle, I didn't realise I had written quite so much!