Nice read Darty and I agree with what you wrote. I understand what you mean about short prices and I do exactly the same. It's much for fun picking out a 40/1 and binking it than picking a 10/1 who is expected to win... Where's the fun in that?
I wouldn't say it's 'easy' when it comes to the PGA tour but everything seems to go to form a lot more than on the European tour. If you take past course form and current form you are only often left with 1 or 2 players, these guys generally make the top 10 that week.
In terms of the European tour, maybe I need to study the form a bit more?? I like to go with 'locals' on the European tour, maybe some unknown names but it's their home course or just home country as they seem to do a lot better. Really I should stop betting on the European and just do PGA, but that's no fun!
Flash you got me thinking about the differences between the two tours.
I've been looking at my returns over the last nine months and I've had far more success on the European Tour than the PGA Tour, I did back Dustin Johnson at 14/1 for this seasons opener and I've had some decent ew returns plus a few savers on the 'in running' markets in PGA events.
In comparison over the same period, I've had 2 x 100/1 winners, an 80/1 winner and 2 x 50/1 winners on the European Tour plus quite a few placed at decent prices.
Perhaps I should start doubling up my European picks with your PGA Tour picks.
I can't work out why I should be having more success on the European Tour, given all the stats that are available for the PGA, perhaps it's my interpretation of those stats, or luck, or maybe a few more players priced at 25/1 and under win on the PGA Tour, maybe I need to lower my 'value' expectations on the PGA Tour?
Dart I'll give u my two pennith to your follow up to War and Peace when I get 5 mins later on.... Lol..... But picking up on your last post, I think it's simply easier to pick both the winner and the value in the European Tour.
I don't think our back up tour as as strong as the pga's, so less coming through every year, so that defo makes it easier with selections.
I've had one of those gut feelings we all get from time to time and it won't go away, this one is for Padraig Harrington!
I recall last year that he said and his results seemed to back him up that the tougher the challenge the easier he found it.
Well this venue has been one of the toughest none major events in recent years, plus the wind can blow, which we know Pardaig also enjoy's.
Last time out he was 6th in Malaysia, he could be accused of being inconsistent this year, but I think he remains a class act and like the fact he's under the radar somewhat this week and I like even more the 50/1 on offer, which ticks my 'value' box big style.
I've backed him outright and with an 8.00am tee time, I've backed Padraig ew also at 50/1 in the first round leader market, as he is well capable of getting off to a flier.
I've taken the 100/1 on Justin Leonard ew. Will pick another couple of outsiders out before it starts. I fancy another upset this week. As for The Masters, I'm hoping Tiger gets pushed out to 4/1 before it starts. Then I'll do him ew with P Power 1/4 odds 1st 6, bet to nothing then. I'll defo be backing Dustin Johnson, and at least one other in the w/o Woods market, so taking him out of the equation. Posted by joesman1
My other outsider is Chris Stroud 125/1 ew. Gl guys
I've had one of those gut feelings we all get from time to time and it won't go away, this one is for Padraig Harrington! I recall last year that he said and his results seemed to back him up that the tougher the challenge the easier he found it. Well this venue has been one of the toughest none major events in recent years, plus the wind can blow, which we know Pardaig also enjoy's. Last time out he was 6th in Malaysia, he could be accused of being inconsistent this year, but I think he remains a class act and like the fact he's under the radar somewhat this week and I like even more the 50/1 on offer, which ticks my 'value' box big style. I've backed him outright and with an 8.00am tee time, I've backed Padraig ew also at 50/1 in the first round leader market, as he is well capable of getting off to a flier. Posted by TheDart
VWD Mr Dart. Great pick..... Hope he stays out in front for u mate.
Well I'm calling it a night as I've been seriously badbeated out of every poker tournament I entered and Harrington is now tied 2nd with a few more challengers including some bloke called Kohles threatening to deny me a place return.
Well I'm calling it a night as I've been seriously badbeated out of every poker tournament I entered and Harrington is now tied 2nd with a few more challengers including some bloke called Kohles threatening to deny me a place return. Posted by TheDart
Well done mate. Good pick, just a bit of a shame there were 6 @-4 or better rather than 5!
Kohles did really well to stay at -3. I saw him birdie 2 (his 11th) to go -4, but then gave it away straight away on his 12th. After that I went to bed, but looked at his play by play this morning and he never looked like making another birdie, they were all long par saves, so very happy he has stayed up there and could actually be his 'bad' round out of the way as he clearly wasn't hitting his irons very well.
Yes, bugs me when your place money gets cut, still nice to start with an early profit.
I was very impressed with what I saw of Ben Kohles last night, he looked very confident and didn't look like he could miss on the greens, also showed good temperament.
His only bogey came just after I posted that he was going well, (I'm sure this board is jinxed).
Just checked his stats for day 1 - Driving 50%, GIR 38.89%, which are pretty awful stats, but strokes gained putting at 2.615 which is as good as the other stats are bad.
Like you say hopefully (for you) he's got the bad round out of the way, afterall I beleive he is normally very accurate (more than most) tee to green.
I so nearly backed him myself this week, kind of wish I had now as 100/1 looks good, if my selections weren't well placed I would take the 33/1 on Kohles now.
Actually I backed one other player pre-tournament, but am not going to name him at this stage, in order to protect him from any messageboard jinx's!
Haven,t even watched any golf yet this season apart from the odd highlight but my m8 has given me a tip , which at the price i.d regret not punting on it as he,s only given me 1 name so heres my first bet at wat should be a gr8 4 days of Golf at Augusta (it was Molinari but i think the other 2 are solid bets which might not be far away and and are defiantely capable of winning it)
nice write up on good ol Padraig Dart and very good pick, glad one of my old faves is going so well.
id every outright as well and couldnt be bothered going in again now oin anyone else so purely watching brief from now on in. how well is marcel siem going???!!!! 5 OVER on the first day, what a comeback well played that man. does he need to win this to confirm place in masters? would like to see him get there hed deserve it the weeks work hes put in.
gonna be all over PETER HANSON for the masters OUTRIGHT, hugely overpriced the last i checked available at 100/1 in a place (the pplace who pays 6)
interesting read from steve bamford who writes on the golf betting system which splashies put link up for on this thread. 15 of last 20 odd winners are either from or have set up shop in Florida, e.g Charl had digs here when he won, and only non american who has won it in recent memory who didnt reside in the states was Cabrera! the others have all been southern states , mainly texas and georgia.
on hearing these trends it has slightly put me off VAN PELT, i never got round to having a few quid backwed each week on him, ill be having a nibble at 80/1 for first round leader on the back of his ultra low score on sunday last year (course record is it??)
HANSON has moved his famiuly to florida for this seasons PGA tour and cannot be ignored at those odds, given how well he went here last year.
HENRIK STENSON also who has come in to form in a big way, i'll be very interested in him for first round leader to put to rest the horrors of last years birthday nightmare when he hit a snowman on the 18th when looking like leader in clubhouse on the thursday
Think ROSE and THE KEEGSTER must hold great chances also on this years form but to me they usually (Bradley in particular) get better the longer the weekend goes and will hopefully be much more backable odds come Saturday than the 20/1 and 28/1 available respectively the last i looked
i did say the last i checked and yes, the pplace (2 ps a clue) was where he was 100's only last week and i did see after i put this up he is now 80's top price across the board as well as 66/1 in places so have missed the boat somewhat but still very backable at 80/1 .
any1 know how these twitter special bets work on skybet?? do u just tweet requesting a specially designed bet then they price it up for you and lay it? id like stenson and hanson top 5 finish incl ties. they go keegster and ricky 80/1 same bet so id be looking closer to 200 odd for my shout that would be lovely tbh maybe all the regulars on here should have a bash and see if skybet will lay them? the stenson/hanson top 5 one would be mine for sure
I'm not sure TBH, try ringing them up, they said to me they don't take bets over the phone, but they did with me beause apparently I'm a valued customer... Maybe ask on the live chat and see what they say, although they are pretty useless.
Won last week, people were saying he had done enough to get in the top 50 world rankings for qualification into The Masters, he eventually finished 51st missing out by 0.3 points.
Then traveled to the States on Monday thanks to a late sponsors invitation.
Has to win to get in The Masters and is now one off the lead with & to play, come on Marcel!
they should let him in now regardless!!!!!! havent checked for everyones bets this week in detail but i too am officially cheerin on marcel!!! fair dos to martin laird also to be fair
Comments
Flash you got me thinking about the differences between the two tours.
I've been looking at my returns over the last nine months and I've had far more success on the European Tour than the PGA Tour, I did back Dustin Johnson at 14/1 for this seasons opener and I've had some decent ew returns plus a few savers on the 'in running' markets in PGA events.
In comparison over the same period, I've had 2 x 100/1 winners, an 80/1 winner and 2 x 50/1 winners on the European Tour plus quite a few placed at decent prices.
Perhaps I should start doubling up my European picks with your PGA Tour picks.
I can't work out why I should be having more success on the European Tour, given all the stats that are available for the PGA, perhaps it's my interpretation of those stats, or luck, or maybe a few more players priced at 25/1 and under win on the PGA Tour, maybe I need to lower my 'value' expectations on the PGA Tour?
I've had one of those gut feelings we all get from time to time and it won't go away, this one is for Padraig Harrington!
I recall last year that he said and his results seemed to back him up that the tougher the challenge the easier he found it.
Well this venue has been one of the toughest none major events in recent years, plus the wind can blow, which we know Pardaig also enjoy's.
Last time out he was 6th in Malaysia, he could be accused of being inconsistent this year, but I think he remains a class act and like the fact he's under the radar somewhat this week and I like even more the 50/1 on offer, which ticks my 'value' box big style.
I've backed him outright and with an 8.00am tee time, I've backed Padraig ew also at 50/1 in the first round leader market, as he is well capable of getting off to a flier.
I was very impressed with what I saw of Ben Kohles last night, he looked very confident and didn't look like he could miss on the greens, also showed good temperament.
His only bogey came just after I posted that he was going well, (I'm sure this board is jinxed).
Just checked his stats for day 1 - Driving 50%, GIR 38.89%, which are pretty awful stats, but strokes gained putting at 2.615 which is as good as the other stats are bad.
Like you say hopefully (for you) he's got the bad round out of the way, afterall I beleive he is normally very accurate (more than most) tee to green.
I so nearly backed him myself this week, kind of wish I had now as 100/1 looks good, if my selections weren't well placed I would take the 33/1 on Kohles now.
Actually I backed one other player pre-tournament, but am not going to name him at this stage, in order to protect him from any messageboard jinx's!
Placed (matched) Order by Matched Date
What a story a Marcel Siem win would make.
Won last week, people were saying he had done enough to get in the top 50 world rankings for qualification into The Masters, he eventually finished 51st missing out by 0.3 points.
Then traveled to the States on Monday thanks to a late sponsors invitation.
Has to win to get in The Masters and is now one off the lead with & to play, come on Marcel!