As others have already posted, great start to the season JD and looks like you have been close to some really big weeks, keep up the good work.
I'm also sending you a pm as I'd like a copy of your spread sheet, sounds like it would be a great tool for me and save a bit of time on the research, as I follow a similar strategy, course from, current form and price.
Though for me I think I usually put more value on course form, than current form.
I've not seen much golf this year and had very little time to study, so I'm really looking forward to getting back into it this week.
Especially as the main man (no not Tiger Woods), makes his first appearance of 2014.
Something a little different for me, I have had a treble on 3 selections for the 2014 season:
Paul Casey - 9/4, to make the European Ryder Cup Team Danny Willett - 11/4, to win on the 2014 European Tour Graham DeLaet - 3/1, to win on the 2014 PGA Tour £30 win treble
Not sure on my European picks. Jaidee has good form and plays will in the middle east, but it's a tough field. John Hahn, I've tipped him a couple of times, his last start was a T8, he seems really up for this event (Twitter), as he doesn't get many starts, so won't take it for granted, especially as he missed out last week, needing 1 more player to drop out.
Really fancy my picks at the Farmers. Snedeker, consistent as ever, was up there last week, and has a great record in this event. Rickie has had a lot of swing changes, and soon it will click and he will have a great week, he also has a really good record here, so should feel confident.
I have decided on a theory that the Desert Swing suits some players more than others and have decided that this could be down to how some players adapt to the Bermuda grass greens and some seem to really struggle.
Peter Hanson - 20/1 without Garcia and Stenson, I decided 20/1 without the favourites was better value than the 25/1 with. Hanson has a good record in the middle east, showed up well last week and his putting stats on Bermuda are very good.
George Coetzee - 30/1, Has some great results on the Desert Swing, including a second here last year and a 4th last week, lead the putting stats last year, lead the putting stats last week, this could be the week George gets his maiden win on tour.
Danny Willett - 80/1, agonized over Carbrerra-Bello or Quiros for my last pick, both have great records and putt well, but in the end plumped for one of my favorites in Danny Willett. His record is not good our here and his putting stats are terrible, so I may well regret this pick over the Spaniards. What changed my mind was, his performance last week which included a low round of the week 63 and for the first time ever on the Desert Swing he managed a respectable ranked 15th for putts per GIR, so maybe just maybe he is getting the hang of the Bermuda Grass.
The conditions at this venue should suit Willett, so if he has worked out how to putt on the greens, the gamble just might pay off.
I like to back players at 3 figure odds and I don't mind admitting over a season, I do OK with a few big priced places and even the occasional 3 figure priced winner.
What I have noticed though is, my big outsiders tend to play well, making the cut more often than not, maybe even threatening the leaderboard, but with only 5 places for a pay out it is difficult to get a return.
So, I'm going to run a trial, this may only last one week as I will be betting outside my bankroll and I don't like losing!
I'm going to back my outsider picks (this week 4 players), ew as I would normally do, but this week I am also going to back them at higher stakes to finish top 20 and see if I can be rewarded for a player who play's well, without making top 5.
I could well have set myself up for posting 4 players who miss the cut, but let's see:
My value outsiders ew first 5 are:
Matthew Baldwin (without Gracia + Stenson) - 110/1 Ricardo Gonzalez -125/1 Darren Fichardt - 140/1 Andy Sullivan - 150/1
£1 ew on each = £8 invested
Same players to finish top 20:
Matthew Baldwin - 5/1 Ricardo Gonzalez - 10/3 Darren Fichardt - 7/2 Andy Sullivan - 4/1
£12 win on Gonzalez, £10 win on the other 3, total invested = £42.00
Peter Hanson 25/1 £2ew This was a bit of a "I don't know who else to put it on" bet. But in reasonable form with a couple of top 10s in recent starts and finished 2nd here in 2012. Was disappointed with the odds though.
George Coetzee £2.5ew (£5 free bet) Played very well last week with a great final round. As I said last week he seems to get his best results out here.
Farmers
Jason Day 33/1 £2ew A credible 9th here last year and was in great form at the end of last year. It was between delaet, fowler and day for my 2nd pick but went with day because feel delaet has a choke in him and fowler can be very frustrating to have money on.
Ian Poulter 50/1 £2ew Seems like crazy odds to me for number 12 in the world who was in great form at the end of last year with 4 top 10s in last 4 starts. Only thing going against him is he hasn't played this event in last 5 yeas (possibly ever?!)
Would love a winner this week. Still looking for a new TV after the little mans exploits last week but have now have my eye on a 46" smart, 3d tv but need to get my poker/skybet account up another £150 before Feb 5th to go for it.
Another addition
Matt Jones 100/1 £1ew
Finished 5th here way back in 09 but his form and ranking seem to be improving gradually.
Graham DeLaet - 55/1, was expecting DeLaet to be a best priced 33/1, so delighted with 55/1. Improved throughout last season and last season's no. 1 ranked player for ball striking has the ideal game for these two courses. Tied 9th last year, the only concern would be that this is his first tour event for 11 weeks and he does seem to have been participating in quite a few corporate events over the last weeks, so not sure if the cobwebs have been dusted as well as they could be.
Hunter Mahan - 35/1, good recent record here, but first start of the 2013/14 season, so maybe should have left Mahan alone this week. I do think he could be set for a big year though, so I'm not going to risk missing out.
Matt Jones - 100/1, Has a best placed 5th here and put up a good performance last week. Was up there with the likes of Stenson, DeLaet and Walker on the ball striking stats last year and clearly has the game to suit this week. Not for the first time, the bookies are being very generous with their odds for Matt Jones.
I'm not going to have any pre-event bets this week. Going to have a mess around trading in-play on betfair. Will mainly be doing this from round 3 onwards.
splashies I've been thinking about the whole trading thing too so i'll be interested seeing how you get on.
Not sure if you seen it but I asked pokernoon about it and he said:
"One thing I know some people do reasonably successfully in golf though is to pick around 10 outsiders that are in decent form, who like the course, have a decent history there etc. Then they bet on each one with the hope that the player gets a good start in the competition.
After the first round, if they have a good start, their odds will have come in massively. At this point they can easily trade out for a profit. Worth playing around with that if you like your golf."
splashies I've been thinking about the whole trading thing too so i'll be interested seeing how you get on. Not sure if you seen it but I asked pokernoon about it and he said: "One thing I know some people do reasonably successfully in golf though is to pick around 10 outsiders that are in decent form, who like the course, have a decent history there etc. Then they bet on each one with the hope that the player gets a good start in the competition. After the first round, if they have a good start, their odds will have come in massively. At this point they can easily trade out for a profit. Worth playing around with that if you like your golf." Posted by jdsallstar
Cheers, the plan is to trade from round 3 onwards, should have a decent feel for how the event is going then and stuff like the easier/harder parts of the course.
Yeh backing longshots pre event, might be something i'll look at in the future, just going to dip my toes with the in-play trading first.
Mark Leishman 40/1 £1 ew - 5th, 7th and 11th in his last 3 starts and has finished 9th and 2nd in this tournament in the past.
1st round leader
Mark Leishman 25/1 (North Course) £1ew Ian Poulter 25/1 (South Course) £1ew
Doubled 50p ew
Edit: Just looked at my bets for these two events (which total £23) and I've worked out only two of the place parts of my 8 outright bets would see me make a profit. So really need a winner or a few places to come in this week to show any type of profit #badtactics
I've already got involved on the trading front in both events.
I've laid Tiger @ 3.65. The plan is to let this bet ride for the entire 1st Round and then I'll trade out at the end of the round, whether that be for a win or a loss.
The reason behind this, is that Tiger is playing the more difficult South Course in Round 1. The other faves like Phil, Sned, Bubba, Day and Keegan are playing the easier North Course. So hopefully Tigers price will drift a bit if those and others tear the easier course apart.
In Qatar, after Round 1 finished I laid Stenson @ 7.8. He's 4 shots off the lead. However, he doesn't go off in Round 2 until the afternoon. Hopefully a few of the morning starters will go low.
The plan is to trade out just before Stenson tees off, so theres very little risk with this bet. I'm not expecting his price to drift a huge amount, but hopefully a few of the morning players will put a bit of distance between Stenson and the top b4 he tees off.
I've already got involved on the trading front in both events. I've laid Tiger @ 3.65. The plan is to let this bet ride for the entire 1st Round and then I'll trade out at the end of the round, whether that be for a win or a loss. The reason behind this, is that Tiger is playing the more difficult South Course in Round 1. The other faves like Phil, Sned, Bubba, Day and Keegan are playing the easier North Course. So hopefully Tigers price will drift a bit if those and others tear the easier course apart. In Qatar, after Round 1 finished I laid Stenson @ 7.8. He's 4 shots off the lead. However, he doesn't go off in Round 2 until the afternoon. Hopefully a few of the morning starters will go low. The plan is to trade out just before Stenson tees off, so theres very little risk with this bet. I'm not expecting his price to drift a huge amount, but hopefully a few of the morning players will put a bit of distance between Stenson and the top b4 he tees off. Posted by splashies
Well I woke up this morning to see the leader at -11, making Stenson 7 shots from the lead. However his price had come in this time to 6.4, which I'm a bit baffled by. I didn't trade out for a small loss, instead I decided to top up my lay at 6.4 (just over 5/1) as I felt that price should be higher.
The plan was to trade out by the time Stenson reached the two par 5's at the turn, (holes 2-6) prob most difficult part of course.
Just traded out at 15.0, so I now have a green book
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2014 Season! (Farmers Ins + Qatar Masters) : Well I woke up this morning to see the leader at -11, making Stenson 7 shots from the lead. However his price had come in this time to 6.4, which I'm a bit baffled by. I didn't trade out for a small loss, instead I decided to top up my lay at 6.4 (just over 5/1) as I felt that price should be higher. The plan was to trade out by the time Stenson reached the two par 5's at the turn, (holes 2-6) prob most difficult part of course. Just traded out at 15.0, so I now have a green book Posted by splashies
I understand next to nothing about spread betting (I think that's the term?), I'm intrigued to know more, so am following these updates with interest.
I know green is good , so keep it up and good luck!
Comments
I'm also sending you a pm as I'd like a copy of your spread sheet, sounds like it would be a great tool for me and save a bit of time on the research, as I follow a similar strategy, course from, current form and price.
Though for me I think I usually put more value on course form, than current form.
I've not seen much golf this year and had very little time to study, so I'm really looking forward to getting back into it this week.
Especially as the main man (no not Tiger Woods), makes his first appearance of 2014.
Paul Casey - 9/4, to make the European Ryder Cup Team
Danny Willett - 11/4, to win on the 2014 European Tour
Graham DeLaet - 3/1, to win on the 2014 PGA Tour
£30 win treble
I have decided on a theory that the Desert Swing suits some players more than others and have decided that this could be down to how some players adapt to the Bermuda grass greens and some seem to really struggle.
Peter Hanson - 20/1 without Garcia and Stenson, I decided 20/1 without the favourites was better value than the 25/1 with. Hanson has a good record in the middle east, showed up well last week and his putting stats on Bermuda are very good.
George Coetzee - 30/1, Has some great results on the Desert Swing, including a second here last year and a 4th last week, lead the putting stats last year, lead the putting stats last week, this could be the week George gets his maiden win on tour.
Danny Willett - 80/1, agonized over Carbrerra-Bello or Quiros for my last pick, both have great records and putt well, but in the end plumped for one of my favorites in Danny Willett. His record is not good our here and his putting stats are terrible, so I may well regret this pick over the Spaniards. What changed my mind was, his performance last week which included a low round of the week 63 and for the first time ever on the Desert Swing he managed a respectable ranked 15th for putts per GIR, so maybe just maybe he is getting the hang of the Bermuda Grass.
The conditions at this venue should suit Willett, so if he has worked out how to putt on the greens, the gamble just might pay off.
I like to back players at 3 figure odds and I don't mind admitting over a season, I do OK with a few big priced places and even the occasional 3 figure priced winner.
What I have noticed though is, my big outsiders tend to play well, making the cut more often than not, maybe even threatening the leaderboard, but with only 5 places for a pay out it is difficult to get a return.
So, I'm going to run a trial, this may only last one week as I will be betting outside my bankroll and I don't like losing!
I'm going to back my outsider picks (this week 4 players), ew as I would normally do, but this week I am also going to back them at higher stakes to finish top 20 and see if I can be rewarded for a player who play's well, without making top 5.
I could well have set myself up for posting 4 players who miss the cut, but let's see:
My value outsiders ew first 5 are:
Matthew Baldwin (without Gracia + Stenson) - 110/1
Ricardo Gonzalez -125/1
Darren Fichardt - 140/1
Andy Sullivan - 150/1
£1 ew on each = £8 invested
Same players to finish top 20:
Matthew Baldwin - 5/1
Ricardo Gonzalez - 10/3
Darren Fichardt - 7/2
Andy Sullivan - 4/1
£12 win on Gonzalez, £10 win on the other 3, total invested = £42.00
Total Invested on the above players = £50.00
Qatar
Peter Hanson 25/1 £2ew
This was a bit of a "I don't know who else to put it on" bet. But in reasonable form with a couple of top 10s in recent starts and finished 2nd here in 2012. Was disappointed with the odds though.
George Coetzee £2.5ew (£5 free bet)
Played very well last week with a great final round. As I said last week he seems to get his best results out here.
Farmers
Jason Day 33/1 £2ew
A credible 9th here last year and was in great form at the end of last year. It was between delaet, fowler and day for my 2nd pick but went with day because feel delaet has a choke in him and fowler can be very frustrating to have money on.
Ian Poulter 50/1 £2ew
Seems like crazy odds to me for number 12 in the world who was in great form at the end of last year with 4 top 10s in last 4 starts. Only thing going against him is he hasn't played this event in last 5 yeas (possibly ever?!)
Would love a winner this week. Still looking for a new TV after the little mans exploits last week but have now have my eye on a 46" smart, 3d tv but need to get my poker/skybet account up another £150 before Feb 5th to go for it.
Another addition
Matt Jones 100/1 £1ew
Finished 5th here way back in 09 but his form and ranking seem to be improving gradually.
Season Profit/Loss
Profit £53.25
Wins: 1
Places: 5
Settled bets: 17
Bets in play: 5
Rickie Fowler 40/1
Graham Delaet 55/1
Branden Grace 35/1
M-A Jimenez 50/1
25p ew doubles!
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Season Profit/Loss
Profit £51.25
Wins: 1
Places: 5
Settled bets: 17
Bets in play: 6
Graham DeLaet - 55/1, was expecting DeLaet to be a best priced 33/1, so delighted with 55/1. Improved throughout last season and last season's no. 1 ranked player for ball striking has the ideal game for these two courses. Tied 9th last year, the only concern would be that this is his first tour event for 11 weeks and he does seem to have been participating in quite a few corporate events over the last weeks, so not sure if the cobwebs have been dusted as well as they could be.
Hunter Mahan - 35/1, good recent record here, but first start of the 2013/14 season, so maybe should have left Mahan alone this week. I do think he could be set for a big year though, so I'm not going to risk missing out.
Matt Jones - 100/1, Has a best placed 5th here and put up a good performance last week. Was up there with the likes of Stenson, DeLaet and Walker on the ball striking stats last year and clearly has the game to suit this week. Not for the first time, the bookies are being very generous with their odds for Matt Jones.
Not sure if you seen it but I asked pokernoon about it and he said:
"One thing I know some people do reasonably successfully in golf though is to pick around 10 outsiders that are in decent form, who like the course, have a decent history there etc. Then they bet on each one with the hope that the player gets a good start in the competition.
Farmers outright
Mark Leishman 40/1 £1 ew - 5th, 7th and 11th in his last 3 starts and has finished 9th and 2nd in this tournament in the past.
1st round leader
Mark Leishman 25/1 (North Course) £1ew
Ian Poulter 25/1 (South Course) £1ew
Doubled 50p ew
Edit: Just looked at my bets for these two events (which total £23) and I've worked out only two of the place parts of my 8 outright bets would see me make a profit. So really need a winner or a few places to come in this week to show any type of profit #badtactics
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Season Profit/Loss
Profit £44.25
Wins: 1
Places: 5
Settled bets: 17
Bets in play: 10
*Counting doubles and trebles etc as one bet even though that's not really correct.
Matthew Baldwin - 5/1 - R1 T14th
Ricardo Gonzalez - 10/3 - R1 T71st
Darren Fichardt - 7/2 - R1 T27th
Andy Sullivan - 4/1 - R1 T60th
I know green is good
North Course - Graham DeLaet - 28/1
South Course - Matt Jones - 35/1
Singles and an ew double
Matthew Baldwin - 5/1 - R1 T14th, R2 T3rd
Ricardo Gonzalez - 10/3 - R1 T71st, R2 MC
Darren Fichardt - 7/2 - R1 T27th, R2 T28th
Andy Sullivan - 4/1 - R1 T60th, R2 MC
The in running market for the Farmers, looks to me as if the bookies aren't quite sure what to make of the scores on the two different courses.
Feels like there could be some value to be had at the moment.
I've taken Billy Horschel at 40/1 ew, coming to the end of his first round playing on the more difficult South Course
and added Alejandro Canizares at Qatar, also 40/1 for an ew double.
Season Profit/Loss
Profit £51.50
Wins: 1
Places: 6
Settled bets: 20