I've already got involved on the trading front in both events. I've laid Tiger @ 3.65. The plan is to let this bet ride for the entire 1st Round and then I'll trade out at the end of the round, whether that be for a win or a loss. The reason behind this, is that Tiger is playing the more difficult South Course in Round 1. The other faves like Phil, Sned, Bubba, Day and Keegan are playing the easier North Course. So hopefully Tigers price will drift a bit if those and others tear the easier course apart. In Qatar, after Round 1 finished I laid Stenson @ 7.8. He's 4 shots off the lead. However, he doesn't go off in Round 2 until the afternoon. Hopefully a few of the morning starters will go low. The plan is to trade out just before Stenson tees off, so theres very little risk with this bet. I'm not expecting his price to drift a huge amount, but hopefully a few of the morning players will put a bit of distance between Stenson and the top b4 he tees off. Posted by splashies
As predicted whilst everyone was tearing the other course apart, Tiger drifted out to 4.7, so I've now greened up.
@Darty, spread betting is something else. What I'm doing is trading, where you lay something at a low price and back it at a higher price, then equalise the profit across all outcomes (green up). Obviously if the price goes the other way, then you take a loss.
Glad it's all going well for you guys. I've had an absolute mare this week! Both Fowler and Snedeker +5 after day1 and are outside the top 130! ... John Hahn missed the CUT, and Jaidee scraped it but is over par for round 3....
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2014 Season! (Farmers Ins + Qatar Masters) : As predicted whilst everyone was tearing the other course apart, Tiger drifted out to 4.7, so I've now greened up. @Darty, spread betting is something else. What I'm doing is trading, where you lay something at a low price and back it at a higher price, then equalise the profit across all outcomes (green up). Obviously if the price goes the other way, then you take a loss. Posted by splashies
I don't quite get this bit could you explain it more details because I'd love to understand it better.
The first bit I understand i.e.
Woods starts at 4.0 - You lay him for £2. Leaving you with a total liability of £8
His odds drift to 12.0 - You back him for £2. So if he wins you get £16 (£24 - £8). If he doesn't win you're even (less bet fair commission)
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2014 Season! (Farmers Ins + Qatar Masters) : I don't quite get this bit could you explain it more details because I'd love to understand it better. The first bit I understand i.e. Woods starts at 4.0 - You lay him for £2. Leaving you with a total liability of £8 His odds drift to 12.0 - You back him for £2. So if he wins you get £16 (£24 - £8). If he doesn't win you're even (less bet fair commission) Posted by jdsallstar
So when you've made your profit on 1 outcome, in this case Tiger, you then put in another small lay bet on Tiger to equally distribute the profit across all players. It's really easy to do because I'm using Geek's Toy, which is a betfair trading software, you literally have to click 1 button and it places the correct lay bet to equally distribute the profit.
So in your example, you've got your £16 profit on Tiger. There will be a green number next to his name, which depends on what price he is, it might say £6.50, you click it, it places the a lay bet on Tiger. When your bet gets matched, you will be "green" £6.50 on all outcomes.
That's the main idea of trading, to win, no matter who wins.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2014 Season! (Farmers Ins + Qatar Masters) : So when you've made your profit on 1 outcome, in this case Tiger, you then put in another small lay bet on Tiger to equally distribute the profit across all players. It's really easy to do because I'm using Geek's Toy, which is a betfair trading software, you literally have to click 1 button and it places the correct lay bet to equally distribute the profit. So in your example, you've got your £16 profit on Tiger. There will be a green number next to his name, which depends on what price he is, it might say £6.50, you click it, it places the a lay bet on Tiger. When your bet gets matched, you will be "green" £6.50 on all outcomes. That's the main idea of trading, to win, no matter who wins. Hope tha makes sense. Posted by splashies
Sounds like I need a new toy lol thanks splashies
Especially with the 3rd round jinx I've got going on at the moment - Hanson and Coetzee both +3 for their rounds. Sigh
My internets out at home because they damaged my phone line when they relayed the road and my mobile internet is non existent so this will be a bit of a long update!
Anyway on Saturday after Coetzee whimpered to a about a 10 way share of fifth and a massive return of £2.03 I remembered I hadn't done my free bet qualifying acca. So picked 4 teams and went to check how it got it on at 5pm sat. 3 out of the 4 came in and the 4th had postponed so £18 return. Wasn't sure if it still qualified for the free bet club and email customer support they replied on Saturday to say it doesn't and so went on to pick another £5 acca. After I'd picked the teams I decided to check out the pga odds for my runners and noticed a certain Mr Stallings sitting 3 off the lead at 33/1. So decided on putting a massive 78p ew on him(rounded my account down lol).
My 2nd acca got off to a good start with Lyon winning easy. Ac Milan next, they were 1 nil down until the 86minute and then scored two late goals to keep the acca alive. Bordeaux and athletico won easy leaving Monaco vs Marseille the last match for £86 quid. Backed the draw and away win at £25 quid to book a win. Monaco won for £56 profit. Boom.
Then on the golf Day, leishman and Stallings all looked candidates to win at different points but stallings won for a £33.74 return, Day placed for a £14.80 and leishman birdied the last to claim a place return of £8.80.
Was hoping for the Day win which would have returned about £80 then Leishman who would of returned about £50 but a wins a win and with the football accas doing well won about £130 on sat and sun. Made for an entertaining weekend despite not being able to play poker! My 46" 3d tv is getting closer......
-----------
Season Profit/Loss
Profit £109.31 (doesn't include football acca's just golf)
Complete opposite for me this week. Both my US picks, which I felt really confident about missed the cut! I didn't put any footy bets on as it was FA cup, but thinking about it, I've now missed out on my freebet so that was pretty stupid, especially as looking back at the results, everyone I would of picked did win!
As for poker... Well I wish my internet connection was down as well!
Onwards and upwards, already done my research, got a good idea who I'm going to back. Maybe I should just wait and copy JD though...
Was a case of starting off as promising to be a great week, to feeling like a bad week (small returns on Coetzee and Fichardt) and ending up with a profit thanks to Graham Delaets' tied 2nd at 55/1, so all in all not bad.
I finished off last week or started this week, by finally finding a player I felt offers some value in the R2D market and have backed, Thorbjorn Olesen at 125/1 ew first 4.
I have also added to my investment on Graham DeLaet for the PGA Tour money list and backed him again at 125/1.
DeLaet's only played 4 events so far and sits 17th on the money list, he's playing 3 of the next 4 weeks, last 3 events read 7th, 6th and 2nd and will be playing all the big events this year, surely he won't be 125/1 for much longer?
Oh and well done JD on your busy and profitable week!
Oleson 25/1 - Flash drew my attention to him this week.
Donaldson 40/1 - Really was struggling for my second pick. Thought about Fleetwood and canizares but decided to go with a more consistent performer. Thought that was best idea with a consistent player because oleson can be very hit or miss and definitely one who can miss cuts very easily too and didn't want to be left with no runners for the weekend! considered Mr consistenet luiten but his record here is terrible.
Phoenix - odds aren't up yet on skybet but my shortlist is Bradley, Every, Haas, Horschel, Moore, Palmer, Poulter, Simpson and Watson. Ryan Moore I imagine will be one of them and probably 1st round leader too all depends on the odds though.
Thorbjorn Olesen - 30/1, as per my earlier post, Olesen gets my support for the season from here on in and I'm hoping he starts with a win this week.
The form suggests he must go close, tied 3rd last week, 3rd here last year, also has 2 top 10's in Abu Dhabi, so is clearly comfortable to conditions at the Desert Swing. Hardly surprising that he has now based in himself in Dubai and it is reported that he has been putting in some serious practice sessions out in Dubai.
Romain Wattel - 66/1, not at the level of Olesen, but Wattel also has some decent recent form and above average results here and in the region, I don't expect he will be 66/1 for long, so I've waded in early, to secure the value.
I will probably add to the portfolio, but for me Olesen and Wattel are the two stand out value picks in the early markets.
I know I know.... U are gonna say VERY VERY boring.. But it's Rory's to lose this week. So it's a footy acca Tues night for me, last leg being Rory @ 7/2.
I'm also having a good wedge on Olesen @ 14/1 ew WITHOUT the big 3 with Sky Bet. If any firm bet without just Rory, I'll have a look at that too (if 20/1 or bigger).
I know I know.... U are gonna say VERY VERY boring.. But it's Rory's to lose this week. So it's a footy acca Tues night for me, last leg being Rory @ 7/2. I'm also having a good wedge on Olesen @ 14/1 ew WITHOUT the big 3 with Sky Bet. If any firm bet without just Rory, I'll have a look at that too (if 20/1 or bigger). Posted by joesman1
Can't argue with those picks.
I might back Olesen without the big 3 myself.
Like pocket aces you've got the best starting hand but like pocket aces no guarantee they will win
Ryan Palmer - 33/1, 5th last year and also has a tied 2nd here, Palmer was 2nd last time out, so ticks some good form boxes.
Charley Hoffman - 45/1, has a 2nd place here and also in good form with a very good final round in the Farmers, good ew value.
JB Holmes - 100/1, has two wins on tour, both at this venue, including a 7 shot victory. JB has taken his time to come back from illness, a tied 23rd at the Farmers last week was very promising and if coming into some form, he obviously loves this course, so could give a decent run for the money at a tidy 100/1.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2014 Season! (Farmers Ins + Qatar Masters) : Can't argue with those picks. I might back Olesen without the big 3 myself. Like pocket aces you've got the best starting hand but like pocket aces no guarantee they will win Good Luck! Posted by TheDart
Nope, no guarantee Darty..... They'd be 3/1 on Skypoker, same price as Rory to beat 155 other golfers lol.....
Comments
The first bit I understand i.e.
Woods starts at 4.0 - You lay him for £2. Leaving you with a total liability of £8
His odds drift to 12.0 - You back him for £2. So if he wins you get £16 (£24 - £8). If he doesn't win you're even (less bet fair commission)
Especially with the 3rd round jinx I've got going on at the moment - Hanson and Coetzee both +3 for their rounds. Sigh
Matthew Baldwin - 5/1 - R1 T14th, R2 T3rd, R3 T15th
Ricardo Gonzalez - 10/3 - R1 T71st, R2 MC
Darren Fichardt - 7/2 - R1 T27th, R2 T28th, R3 T15th
Andy Sullivan - 4/1 - R1 T60th, R2 MC
Marc Leishman
Nicolas Colsaerts
£5 win on both at 5/1
both still in with a shout although bookies offering better odds at the start of r4.
be lucky
Matthew Baldwin - 5/1 - R1 T14th, R2 T3rd, R3 T15th, Finished tied 22nd
Ricardo Gonzalez - 10/3 - R1 T71st, R2 MC
Darren Fichardt - 7/2 - R1 T27th, R2 T28th, R3 T15th, Finished in a 6 way tie for 16th
Andy Sullivan - 4/1 - R1 T60th, R2 MC
Returns of £37.50, invested £42.00 = loss of £4.50
Kept me interested until the end of the event and very nearly doubled my money and some, but not sure this is a group of bets I'll be making weekly.
My internets out at home because they damaged my phone line when they relayed the road and my mobile internet is non existent so this will be a bit of a long update!
Anyway on Saturday after Coetzee whimpered to a about a 10 way share of fifth and a massive return of £2.03 I remembered I hadn't done my free bet qualifying acca. So picked 4 teams and went to check how it got it on at 5pm sat. 3 out of the 4 came in and the 4th had postponed so £18 return. Wasn't sure if it still qualified for the free bet club and email customer support they replied on Saturday to say it doesn't and so went on to pick another £5 acca. After I'd picked the teams I decided to check out the pga odds for my runners and noticed a certain Mr Stallings sitting 3 off the lead at 33/1. So decided on putting a massive 78p ew on him(rounded my account down lol).
My 2nd acca got off to a good start with Lyon winning easy. Ac Milan next, they were 1 nil down until the 86minute and then scored two late goals to keep the acca alive. Bordeaux and athletico won easy leaving Monaco vs Marseille the last match for £86 quid. Backed the draw and away win at £25 quid to book a win. Monaco won for £56 profit. Boom.
Then on the golf Day, leishman and Stallings all looked candidates to win at different points but stallings won for a £33.74 return, Day placed for a £14.80 and leishman birdied the last to claim a place return of £8.80.
Was hoping for the Day win which would have returned about £80 then Leishman who would of returned about £50 but a wins a win and with the football accas doing well won about £130 on sat and sun. Made for an entertaining weekend despite not being able to play poker! My 46" 3d tv is getting closer......
Season Profit/Loss
Profit £109.31 (doesn't include football acca's just golf)
Wins: 2
Places: 10
Settled bets: 28
Was a case of starting off as promising to be a great week, to feeling like a bad week (small returns on Coetzee and Fichardt) and ending up with a profit thanks to Graham Delaets' tied 2nd at 55/1, so all in all not bad.
I finished off last week or started this week, by finally finding a player I felt offers some value in the R2D market and have backed, Thorbjorn Olesen at 125/1 ew first 4.
I have also added to my investment on Graham DeLaet for the PGA Tour money list and backed him again at 125/1.
DeLaet's only played 4 events so far and sits 17th on the money list, he's playing 3 of the next 4 weeks, last 3 events read 7th, 6th and 2nd and will be playing all the big events this year, surely he won't be 125/1 for much longer?
Oh and well done JD on your busy and profitable week!
In future I shall have to consider the other 155 players in a USA tour event
Oleson 25/1 - Flash drew my attention to him this week.
Donaldson 40/1 - Really was struggling for my second pick. Thought about Fleetwood and canizares but decided to go with a more consistent performer. Thought that was best idea with a consistent player because oleson can be very hit or miss and definitely one who can miss cuts very easily too and didn't want to be left with no runners for the weekend! considered Mr consistenet luiten but his record here is terrible.
Phoenix - odds aren't up yet on skybet but my shortlist is Bradley, Every, Haas, Horschel, Moore, Palmer, Poulter, Simpson and Watson. Ryan Moore I imagine will be one of them and probably 1st round leader too all depends on the odds though.
Thorbjorn Olesen - 30/1, as per my earlier post, Olesen gets my support for the season from here on in and I'm hoping he starts with a win this week.
The form suggests he must go close, tied 3rd last week, 3rd here last year, also has 2 top 10's in Abu Dhabi, so is clearly comfortable to conditions at the Desert Swing. Hardly surprising that he has now based in himself in Dubai and it is reported that he has been putting in some serious practice sessions out in Dubai.
Romain Wattel - 66/1, not at the level of Olesen, but Wattel also has some decent recent form and above average results here and in the region, I don't expect he will be 66/1 for long, so I've waded in early, to secure the value.
I will probably add to the portfolio, but for me Olesen and Wattel are the two stand out value picks in the early markets.
Good Luck All!
I might back Olesen without the big 3 myself.
Like pocket aces you've got the best starting hand but like pocket aces no guarantee they will win
Good Luck!
Ryan Palmer - 33/1, 5th last year and also has a tied 2nd here, Palmer was 2nd last time out, so ticks some good form boxes.
Charley Hoffman - 45/1, has a 2nd place here and also in good form with a very good final round in the Farmers, good ew value.
JB Holmes - 100/1, has two wins on tour, both at this venue, including a 7 shot victory. JB has taken his time to come back from illness, a tied 23rd at the Farmers last week was very promising and if coming into some form, he obviously loves this course, so could give a decent run for the money at a tidy 100/1.