I've just trundled along steadily all month, £5 here, £10 there, nice & steady.
And then.......I began last night by losing SEVEN of the first NINE.
How does this happen?
I play a very low-variance style, don't limpy limp, keep out of trouble, choose my spots with great care, & my ranges are almost always nicely balanced.
And yet, I just lost game after game. No concentration excuses, I just kept losing.
If we get it in - as I did, 3 times - with A-K-2-5, & run into A-Q-3-9, we have got the villain strangled at both ends. Sure, we'll often just end up with a chop, but it's tough to lose both ends. But I did.
And I got it in bad several times, the other way round. Well maybe I'll get lucky, even at one end. No sirree.
Lose, lose, lose lose lose.
Generally, this is time to stop for the night, but I got all stubborn, & wanted to reduce the defecit, which was £40 after 9 games, ugh.
For a while, I steadied the ship - the defecit never increased, but it never reduced, either, it was sort of W L W L.
I plugged on, as stubborn as ever, & then, just like turning a light switch on, it completely reversed, & I finished by winning the last 9 out of 10, in fact the last 8 were all wins.
I perfectly understand variance, & it does not bother me one bit, but the mystery is how, win or lose, it seems to come in "runs". But it does.
It's not like I played better in the winning stretch, in fact I played worse, made some shocking plays. But I was playing the rush, taking chances, & just kept getting there.
Anyway, took me 4 hours, my biggest session in January by far, & I ended up losing £4. It felt like the best night ever, it really did. Get out of jail? Just a bit.
I have to apologize to _kagawa_ for, perhaps, the worst call in the history of bad calls, this was worse than any Macacgirl nonsense.
This was during the HOT run.
It was a fascinating game, we were 4 handed for ages. I had more than doubled up early, & was playing nice & cosy, as was "Mart", who had around the same as me.
The other 2 lads were Kaggy, & Pommy, both on about 2,000.
There was some comedy bants in the chat box, hoping Mart & me would bang heads, but Mart is a smart guy, & we had no intention of taking each other on, so it was all very tactical.
It continued for ages, just sparring, & then, with Kaggy down to 4 or 5 Bigs, he button-shoved. I had a good low, & a bad high, but I reasoned he might shove with anything, & he knew I was scared to double him up. Never, Never EVER, double up a good player if you can help it.
Anyway, I made the call, missed the lot, & ended up with just a pair of deuces on a Q-9-2 flop. I checked & he shoved. And I.........called!
I sort of thought he was pot stuck, & would c-shove with anything. But a pair of deuces was not beating his paired queens.....until I somehow two-paired it.
I have no idea what I was thinking.
Play the rush, eh?
Quick "thank you" to Kaggy & Pommy as to their kind comments about this little Diary. I've neglected it a bit lately, as I've just been playing A B C up & down standard stuff, and I assumed everyone had abandoned ship.
Anyway, I'm all revved up now, & can't wait to play tonight. See some of you later, I hope. Less variance tonight please.
RE: "I perfectly understand variance, & it does not bother me one bit, but the mystery is how, win or lose, it seems to come in "runs". But it does."
Just maths innit?
Just have play with a spreadsheet (if you get stuck there's a forum thread for help with these things now)
Put in your win lose percentage as a variable, we know your winning so say its 60%, but you can play with this too start at 50% and move up in 2% steps.
Then start a column, keep it simple just 100 samples calc a random number between 0 and 1. If the result is >= your percentage set to 0 if its less set to 1. Obviously the total number of 1s should be around 60 and 0's around 40 but chances are one or two either side.
These are pure random numbers and the totals will smooth out closer to 60% and 40% over bigger samples.
The interesting bit (if anyone is still with me here) is the clusters - you cant blame good play bad play tiredness table selection - its just a random number generator and probability at play. Guarantee you will see lots of clusters maybe even up to 8/9 streaks of both 0's and 1's even at a 60/40 split. This feels so wrong over 100 but it will happen (mostly) and you can keep recalcing of course or build a sheet with more samples.
It fascinates me how powerful maths are. I can't be doing with those that get all stroppy because they have a bit of bad luck, but those "clusters" (great word to describe it) are quite something.
I have no idea how I came to lose 7 from 9.
I have no idea how I won 8 from 8.
Same player, same game.
It's all about sample size, too, I suppose. 8, 9, 25 or 100 games are meaningless, though the bigger the sample, the more likely the results reflect our ability.
1. Shorty is all-in, has 2 callers. The 2 callers then proceed to go to war ??????
2. Player A limps in early position. Player B pot raises from the blinds. Player A then re-pots all-in. Ah i'm thinking he's got a monster and was trapping.... but no, he turns over a pile of poo (and usually gets there)!!
Edit*
Earlier todaywas down to last 4. Folded round to me in sb, i have AJ52ss Pot it BB repots which effectively puts us both All-in He turns over KK99 and makes quads !!
In Response to Re: Can an old dog learn new tricks? : Ah Thanks! I'll be back soon enough. Bit under the weather at the moment, I've only got Chicken Pox! I wouldn't wish it on anyone, the fever I had before the spots emerged, was without a doubt the worst I've ever had! Posted by Macacgirl1
Hi Karen,
Really sorry to hear you have been unwell.
Do look after yourself please, chicken pox is a nasty ilness to have at the best of times, but particularly so in the case of OAP's.
Hi Bluff, Sat on a few tables with you now and enjoyed our little joust HU in a recent MTT. There is a PLO8 MTT league organised by Hitman and Churchy, 4 events at different buy in on Thursday night (ie tonight ;-)) Come along and get involved Neil sorry to hijack your diary Tikay....when are you going to make another appearance or are you retiring after winning the first one? Posted by HENDRIK62
No no, not retiring from it, I'll give it another evening quite soon, maybe even this weekend.
When is the next League Night?
The problem with poker when you enjoy it as much as I do, is that we are so spoilt for choice, & there are not enough hours in the day.
Feller has this all worked out on p. 325 of An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, 3rd Edition, equation 7.11: qn∼1−px(r+1−rx)q⋅1xn+1 where qn is the probability of no success run of length r in n trials, p is the probability of success, q=1−p, and x is the root near 1 of 1−x+qprxr+1=0 *formulae don't paste well into the forum - best go to the source for the equations Posted by GELDY
Afternoon tikay I was running hotter than the sun yesterday winning 10 from 11 also played 3 mtt's got Hu in one 33 quid profit for the night happy days. Posted by bluffulot6
You certainly were hitting cards last night, and playing well, too. A powerful combo, that.
In Response to Re: Can an old dog learn new tricks? : No no, not retiring from it, I'll give it another evening quite soon, maybe even this weekend. When is the next League Night? The problem with poker when you enjoy it as much as I do, is that we are so spoilt for choice, & there are not enough hours in the day. Posted by Tikay10
Tough session, was up against it from the get go, after losing 5 of the first 6, but then won 5 of the last 6 to just about get out of it. Was fortunate I won both the £11ers, that was the difference between winning & losing.
The games seemed tougher than usual, not sure why.
Comments
2015 Opening Balance = £1,520.48
15th January.
£3.30, P0, W0
£5.50, P22 W13
£11, P3 W1
Total = P25, W14, L11
Profit/Loss on day £4.00
Month to date;
£3.30, P25, W14 (56%)
£5.50, P104, W65 (63%)
£11, P28, W17 (61%)
Total, P157, W96, Game-Count 61%
Closing balance £1,627.04
Profit/Loss on Month £106.60
Profit/Loss per game = £0.68
An extraordinary night, never had such fun.
I've just trundled along steadily all month, £5 here, £10 there, nice & steady.
And then.......I began last night by losing SEVEN of the first NINE.
How does this happen?
I play a very low-variance style, don't limpy limp, keep out of trouble, choose my spots with great care, & my ranges are almost always nicely balanced.
And yet, I just lost game after game. No concentration excuses, I just kept losing.
If we get it in - as I did, 3 times - with A-K-2-5, & run into A-Q-3-9, we have got the villain strangled at both ends. Sure, we'll often just end up with a chop, but it's tough to lose both ends. But I did.
And I got it in bad several times, the other way round. Well maybe I'll get lucky, even at one end. No sirree.
Lose, lose, lose lose lose.
Generally, this is time to stop for the night, but I got all stubborn, & wanted to reduce the defecit, which was £40 after 9 games, ugh.
For a while, I steadied the ship - the defecit never increased, but it never reduced, either, it was sort of W L W L.
I plugged on, as stubborn as ever, & then, just like turning a light switch on, it completely reversed, & I finished by winning the last 9 out of 10, in fact the last 8 were all wins.
I perfectly understand variance, & it does not bother me one bit, but the mystery is how, win or lose, it seems to come in "runs". But it does.
It's not like I played better in the winning stretch, in fact I played worse, made some shocking plays. But I was playing the rush, taking chances, & just kept getting there.
Anyway, took me 4 hours, my biggest session in January by far, & I ended up losing £4. It felt like the best night ever, it really did. Get out of jail? Just a bit.
I have to apologize to _kagawa_ for, perhaps, the worst call in the history of bad calls, this was worse than any Macacgirl nonsense.
This was during the HOT run.
It was a fascinating game, we were 4 handed for ages. I had more than doubled up early, & was playing nice & cosy, as was "Mart", who had around the same as me.
The other 2 lads were Kaggy, & Pommy, both on about 2,000.
There was some comedy bants in the chat box, hoping Mart & me would bang heads, but Mart is a smart guy, & we had no intention of taking each other on, so it was all very tactical.
It continued for ages, just sparring, & then, with Kaggy down to 4 or 5 Bigs, he button-shoved. I had a good low, & a bad high, but I reasoned he might shove with anything, & he knew I was scared to double him up. Never, Never EVER, double up a good player if you can help it.
Anyway, I made the call, missed the lot, & ended up with just a pair of deuces on a Q-9-2 flop. I checked & he shoved. And I.........called!
I sort of thought he was pot stuck, & would c-shove with anything. But a pair of deuces was not beating his paired queens.....until I somehow two-paired it.
I have no idea what I was thinking.
Play the rush, eh?
Quick "thank you" to Kaggy & Pommy as to their kind comments about this little Diary. I've neglected it a bit lately, as I've just been playing A B C up & down standard stuff, and I assumed everyone had abandoned ship.
Anyway, I'm all revved up now, & can't wait to play tonight. See some of you later, I hope. Less variance tonight please.
Good stuff Phantom.
It fascinates me how powerful maths are. I can't be doing with those that get all stroppy because they have a bit of bad luck, but those "clusters" (great word to describe it) are quite something.
I have no idea how I came to lose 7 from 9.
I have no idea how I won 8 from 8.
Same player, same game.
It's all about sample size, too, I suppose. 8, 9, 25 or 100 games are meaningless, though the bigger the sample, the more likely the results reflect our ability.
Keep it up please.
Things that puzzle me at this game.........
1. Shorty is all-in, has 2 callers.
The 2 callers then proceed to go to war ??????
2. Player A limps in early position.
Player B pot raises from the blinds.
Player A then re-pots all-in.
Ah i'm thinking he's got a monster and was trapping.... but no, he turns over a pile of poo (and usually gets there)!!
Edit*
Earlier todaywas down to last 4.
Folded round to me in sb, i have AJ52ss
Pot it
BB repots which effectively puts us both All-in
He turns over KK99 and makes quads !!
Really sorry to hear you have been unwell.
Do look after yourself please, chicken pox is a nasty ilness to have at the best of times, but particularly so in the case of OAP's.
When is the next League Night?
The problem with poker when you enjoy it as much as I do, is that we are so spoilt for choice, & there are not enough hours in the day.
Given the choice of playing a PLO8 League evening, or spending 5 hours sat next to Lord Smirk, I know which I'd prefer......
No Updates for 5 days, yikes, best get up to date. Been an interesting 5 days, too......
2015 Opening Balance = £1,520.48
16th January.
£3.30, P0, W0
£5.50, P13 W6
£11, P2 W2
Total = P15, W8, L7
Profit/Loss on day £6.50
Month to date;
£3.30, P25, W14 (56%)
£5.50, P117, W71 (61%)
£11, P30, W19 (63%)
Total, P172, W104, Game-Count 60%
Closing balance £1,633.54
Profit/Loss on Month £113.10
Profit/Loss per game = £0.66
Tough session, was up against it from the get go, after losing 5 of the first 6, but then won 5 of the last 6 to just about get out of it. Was fortunate I won both the £11ers, that was the difference between winning & losing.
The games seemed tougher than usual, not sure why.