Glad you are playing tonight Mr. K Inbetween pouring Calamine lotion over my head, I might just try to find the time to play properly and get right on your wick! Posted by Macacgirl1
Bring it on Lady Spite, bring it on!
Calamine lotion, there's a memory from my childhood.
I was allergic to all sorts of bites & stings, & was forever covered in calamine lotion.
I was 7 before I realised that it was not my natural skin colour.
Nice to see you posting again Tikay. Look forward to seeing you on the tables this evening. Run well at the live events, not this evening obviously, I'd like to have a winning session! I have sent you a pm on an unrelated matter rather than clog up your thread with such things. Cheers Tuney Posted by Enut
In Response to Re: Can an old dog learn new tricks? : Bring it on Lady Spite, bring it on! Calamine lotion, there's a memory from my childhood. I was allergic to all sorts of bites & stings, & was forever covered in calamine lotion. I was 7 before I realised that it was not my natural skin colour. Love pink, me. Posted by Tikay10
Small typo there Mr K !
"I was 71 before I realised that it was not my natural skin colour".
Quick (welll not so quick) story about variance, as it seems topical right now.
A few kindly souls explained the "clusters" (of variance/luck) theory on here the other day.
I do a bit of betting. Not big, usually average £20 or £30, but make around 4% over a 4,000 bet size sample, so it does not cost me anything except time, I make a little bit of money, but mainly, I enjoy that betting buzz. Exactly what I enjoy aboiut poker actually, the buzz. There is a buzz every hand we are dealt, every street.
Anyway, SPT-Rich, aka Tighty, gives me most of my bets. (I never pick the bets). He is an abso genuis on NFL for example. (SPAM ALERT - he will be on the Super Bowl Betting Preview next Tuesday on 861, alongside Mr Ambo).
So, in last weeks Golf from Dubai, we were on Kaymer to win, at 14/1. Its a 4 day affair, so you get a nice long sweat for your money.
It was Televised Live, & was on Sky Sports on Sunday morning.
Kaymer was about 8 shots clear starting his final round, so I had 5 hours to cheer him, & my 14/1 bet, home.
He then birdied 4 of the first 5 holes. BOOMIO.
Soon, he was 1.01 on Betfair.
And then, somehow, he managed to implode, & lost the thing, not even pipped on the post, he effectively lost wth 2 holes to spare. Never mind, next case.
In the evening, I had Green Bay Packers to win the NFL "semi-Final" (Conference Final) to get into the Super Bowl.
4 long months ago, Tighty gave me Green Bay Packers, & we've sweated it every single week, huge fun. The Packers were huge dogs on Sunday, but no matter, we were EW.
As a bonus, we had them to win the Super Bowl, too, also at fancy prices, 16/1 I seem to recall.
Finally, we had a little bet on "UNDER 45 points".
Remarkably, Packers took the lead early, increased it, increased it, & increased it again. Wowzer. They led after the 1st, 2nd & 3rd quarters, & were comfortably ahead with 3 minutes remaining. Once again, we had 14/1 about a 1.01 (1/100) shot on Betfair.
After a series of errors, bad errors, in the last 2 or 3 minutes, Packers managed to lose.
So, in ONE day, I had 2 x 14/1 shots, both trading @ 1.01, & both lost. Not something that we see very often, that, never mind happen to us. C'est la Vie. Both were EW, so I made a bit of money in both cases, but I left a bit on the table, too.....
But wait - I had that "UNDER 45 points" bet, too. The score at the end of regular time was.....22-22, so 44 points. BOOOOOOOMIO, we are out of it.
No no no. In NFL - unlike Football - "overtime" COUNTS for Total Points. And to win in Overtime, someone HAS to score. So the 44 point scoreline has to be exceeded. And so that bet went down the pan, too.
Feller has this all worked out on p. 325 of An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, 3rd Edition, equation 7.11: qn∼1−px(r+1−rx)q⋅1xn+1 where qn is the probability of no success run of length r in n trials, p is the probability of success, q=1−p, and x is the root near 1 of 1−x+qprxr+1=0 *formulae don't paste well into the forum - best go to the source for the equations Posted by GELDY
I would like to run some calcs in a spreadsheet, found the source but still stuck on the bold bit
i use solver to calculate a value of x that zeroes the equation. You could do it iteratively i suppose but I'm happy using solver. Start with an x at 1 or similar (ie result of previous solution) and it will always find the correct root.
of course you could ask teeks how he did it longhand. Just get that calomine lotion ready for when he throws you into a bed of nettles. Where would we be today without calomine to soothe the journey.
Stevie Wonder and Jack Nicklaus are in a bar. Nicklaus turns to Wonder and says, "How is the singing career going?" Stevie Wonder says, "Not too bad, the latest album has gone into the top 10, so all in all I think it is pretty good. By the way how is the golf." Nicklaus replies: "Not too bad, I am not winning as much as I used to but I'm still making a bit of money. I have some problems with my swing but I think I've got that right now." "I always find that when my swing goes wrong I need to stop playing for a while and think about it, then the next time I play it seems to be all right," says Stevie. "You play golf!?" asks Jack. Stevie says, "Yes, I have been playing for years." "But I thought you were blind; how can you play golf if you are blind?" Jack asks. " I get my caddie to stand in the middle of the fairway and he calls to me. I listen for the sound of his voice and play the ball towards him, then when I get to where the ball lands the caddie moves to the green or further down the fairway and again I play the ball towards his voice," explains Stevie. "But how do you putt?" Nicklaus wondered. "Well," says Stevie, "I get my caddie to lean down in front of the hole and call to me with his head on the ground and I just play the ball to the sound of his voice." Nicklaus says, "What is your handicap?" "Well, I play off scratch," Stevie assures Jack. Nicklaus is incredulous and says to Stevie, "We must play a game sometime." Wonder replies, "Well, people don't take me seriously so I only play for money, and I never play for less than $100,000 a hole." Nicklaus thinks it over and says, "OK, I'm up for that. When would you like to play?"
"I don't care - any night next week is OK with me."
In Response to Re: Can an old dog learn new tricks? : Been complaining for over a year and still here! Jeez how many pages back did you find that? Too much time on your hands leads to the mind playing tricks. Get a hobby!! Posted by VespaPX
Agree with you vespa totally, how can anybody worry or get upset playing poker in the 1st place but PL08 at this level or any level?
I swear my 3rd hand ever playing PLo8 was 4 aces, which i know 4 of a kind in hand is bad but kept betting and won before show down.
Anyway sorry to go off what was going to be my original post......
I have been off work since the start of the year and have finally caught up on this thread from about page 42! in the last week or so! So hope you(vespa/mick) are well on target recovery from your accident which involved the head scaffolding,i hope tikay finally escapes the £1400 ish barrier that has held him back for a year, and i cant believe macagirl(Karen) with all the food talk hasn't convinced tikay of the calorific value and taste sensation that are twiglets!
Oh, i also want to know if Macagirl like me also stocks up with twiglets at xmas? I have about 14 of those cylinder twiglet packs stored up from xmas offers of buy 1 get 1 free.
Cheers Dave.
P.S Have played a few of the omaha tourneys and dyms and have won 1 mtt tourney and cashed the few dyms i have played.Good thread will play more regularly when back in work.
In Response to Re: Can an old dog learn new tricks? : Agree with you vespa totally, how can anybody worry or get upset playing poker in the 1st place but PL08 at this level or any level? I swear my 3rd hand ever playing PLo8 was 4 aces, which i know 4 of a kind in hand is bad but kept betting and won before show down. Anyway sorry to go off what was going to be my original post...... I have been off work since the start of the year and have finally caught up on this thread from about page 42! in the last week or so! So hope you(vespa/mick) are well on target recovery from your accident which involved the head scaffolding,i hope tikay finally escapes the £1400 ish barrier that has held him back for a year, and i cant believe macagirl(Karen) with all the food talk hasn't convinced tikay of the calorific value and taste sensation that are twiglets! Oh, i also want to know if Macagirl like me also stocks up with twiglets at xmas? I have about 14 of those cylinder twiglet packs stored up from xmas offers of buy 1 get 1 free. Cheers Dave. P.S Have played a few of the omaha tourneys and dyms and have won 1 mtt tourney and cashed the few dyms i have played.Good thread will play more regularly when back in work. Posted by Any2Suited
Cheers Dave
All going well with my recovery thanks, can finally drive again!
In Response to Re: Can an old dog learn new tricks? : Agree with you vespa totally, how can anybody worry or get upset playing poker in the 1st place but PL08 at this level or any level? I swear my 3rd hand ever playing PLo8 was 4 aces, which i know 4 of a kind in hand is bad but kept betting and won before show down. Anyway sorry to go off what was going to be my original post...... I have been off work since the start of the year and have finally caught up on this thread from about page 42! in the last week or so! So hope you(vespa/mick) are well on target recovery from your accident which involved the head scaffolding,i hope tikay finally escapes the £1400 ish barrier that has held him back for a year, and i cant believe macagirl(Karen) with all the food talk hasn't convinced tikay of the calorific value and taste sensation that are twiglets! Oh, i also want to know if Macagirl like me also stocks up with twiglets at xmas? I have about 14 of those cylinder twiglet packs stored up from xmas offers of buy 1 get 1 free. Cheers Dave. P.S Have played a few of the omaha tourneys and dyms and have won 1 mtt tourney and cashed the few dyms i have played.Good thread will play more regularly when back in work. Posted by Any2Suited
Cheers Dave
All going well with my recovery thanks, can finally drive again!
In Response to Re: Can an old dog learn new tricks? : Cheers Dave All going well with my recovery thanks, can finally drive again! Treated myself to a new car yesterday :-) Good luck on the job front. Hope to see you at the tables soon. Mick Posted by VespaPX
In Response to Re: Can an old dog learn new tricks? : Agree with you vespa totally, how can anybody worry or get upset playing poker in the 1st place but PL08 at this level or any level? I swear my 3rd hand ever playing PLo8 was 4 aces, which i know 4 of a kind in hand is bad but kept betting and won before show down. Anyway sorry to go off what was going to be my original post...... I have been off work since the start of the year and have finally caught up on this thread from about page 42! in the last week or so! So hope you(vespa/mick) are well on target recovery from your accident which involved the head scaffolding,i hope tikay finally escapes the £1400 ish barrier that has held him back for a year, and i cant believe macagirl(Karen) with all the food talk hasn't convinced tikay of the calorific value and taste sensation that are twiglets! Oh, i also want to know if Macagirl like me also stocks up with twiglets at xmas? I have about 14 of those cylinder twiglet packs stored up from xmas offers of buy 1 get 1 free. Cheers Dave. P.S Have played a few of the omaha tourneys and dyms and have won 1 mtt tourney and cashed the few dyms i have played.Good thread will play more regularly when back in work. Posted by Any2Suited
Now we're talking! Very sensible of you Dave, very sensible. With the exception of a couple of national disasters, I never run out of Twiglets. We usually get them by the boxful from a cash and carry, but I am prone to the odd supermarket panic multi-buy too. You can never have enough Twiglets. And clean Knickers.
Comments
Calamine lotion, there's a memory from my childhood.
I was allergic to all sorts of bites & stings, & was forever covered in calamine lotion.
I was 7 before I realised that it was not my natural skin colour.
Love pink, me.
Thanks Tuney,
Have replied.
"I was 71 before I realised that it was not my natural skin colour".
Onwards and upwards!
Quick (welll not so quick) story about variance, as it seems topical right now.
A few kindly souls explained the "clusters" (of variance/luck) theory on here the other day.
I do a bit of betting. Not big, usually average £20 or £30, but make around 4% over a 4,000 bet size sample, so it does not cost me anything except time, I make a little bit of money, but mainly, I enjoy that betting buzz. Exactly what I enjoy aboiut poker actually, the buzz. There is a buzz every hand we are dealt, every street.
Anyway, SPT-Rich, aka Tighty, gives me most of my bets. (I never pick the bets). He is an abso genuis on NFL for example. (SPAM ALERT - he will be on the Super Bowl Betting Preview next Tuesday on 861, alongside Mr Ambo).
So, in last weeks Golf from Dubai, we were on Kaymer to win, at 14/1. Its a 4 day affair, so you get a nice long sweat for your money.
It was Televised Live, & was on Sky Sports on Sunday morning.
Kaymer was about 8 shots clear starting his final round, so I had 5 hours to cheer him, & my 14/1 bet, home.
He then birdied 4 of the first 5 holes. BOOMIO.
Soon, he was 1.01 on Betfair.
And then, somehow, he managed to implode, & lost the thing, not even pipped on the post, he effectively lost wth 2 holes to spare. Never mind, next case.
In the evening, I had Green Bay Packers to win the NFL "semi-Final" (Conference Final) to get into the Super Bowl.
4 long months ago, Tighty gave me Green Bay Packers, & we've sweated it every single week, huge fun. The Packers were huge dogs on Sunday, but no matter, we were EW.
As a bonus, we had them to win the Super Bowl, too, also at fancy prices, 16/1 I seem to recall.
Finally, we had a little bet on "UNDER 45 points".
Remarkably, Packers took the lead early, increased it, increased it, & increased it again. Wowzer. They led after the 1st, 2nd & 3rd quarters, & were comfortably ahead with 3 minutes remaining. Once again, we had 14/1 about a 1.01 (1/100) shot on Betfair.
After a series of errors, bad errors, in the last 2 or 3 minutes, Packers managed to lose.
So, in ONE day, I had 2 x 14/1 shots, both trading @ 1.01, & both lost. Not something that we see very often, that, never mind happen to us. C'est la Vie. Both were EW, so I made a bit of money in both cases, but I left a bit on the table, too.....
But wait - I had that "UNDER 45 points" bet, too. The score at the end of regular time was.....22-22, so 44 points. BOOOOOOOMIO, we are out of it.
No no no. In NFL - unlike Football - "overtime" COUNTS for Total Points. And to win in Overtime, someone HAS to score. So the 44 point scoreline has to be exceeded. And so that bet went down the pan, too.
Welcome to clusters.
Stevie Wonder says, "Not too bad, the latest album has gone into the top 10, so all in all I think it is pretty good. By the way how is the golf."
Nicklaus replies: "Not too bad, I am not winning as much as I used to but I'm still making a bit of money. I have some problems with my swing but I think I've got that right now."
"I always find that when my swing goes wrong I need to stop playing for a while and think about it, then the next time I play it seems to be all right," says Stevie.
"You play golf!?" asks Jack.
Stevie says, "Yes, I have been playing for years."
"But I thought you were blind; how can you play golf if you are blind?" Jack asks.
" I get my caddie to stand in the middle of the fairway and he calls to me. I listen for the sound of his voice and play the ball towards him, then when I get to where the ball lands the caddie moves to the green or further down the fairway and again I play the ball towards his voice," explains Stevie.
"But how do you putt?" Nicklaus wondered.
"Well," says Stevie, "I get my caddie to lean down in front of the hole and call to me with his head on the ground and I just play the ball to the sound of his voice."
Nicklaus says, "What is your handicap?"
"Well, I play off scratch," Stevie assures Jack.
Nicklaus is incredulous and says to Stevie, "We must play a game sometime."
Wonder replies, "Well, people don't take me seriously so I only play for money, and I never play for less than $100,000 a hole."
Nicklaus thinks it over and says, "OK, I'm up for that. When would you like to play?"
"I don't care - any night next week is OK with me."
With the exception of a couple of national disasters, I never run out of Twiglets. We usually get them by the boxful from a cash and carry, but I am prone to the odd supermarket panic multi-buy too.
You can never have enough Twiglets. And clean Knickers.
Was unable to play much the last week, what with work & other stuff, but I've had a few sessions, so I'd best Post some numbers & get up to date.