3 different horses covered by the 2.5 units. Looks like Hallstatt is the big hope - multi C&D winner and has 34% of the market. GL. Posted by Phantom66
i picked hallstatt this morning so fingers crossed
Just on school run, so on phone. It may not be all bad as now very few will do Jackpot on a potentially achievable card. We may still do it. I will take a look when I get home. G
OK, I have had a look at the Ascot card. I am about 90% sure that Ascot will be the Jackpot meeting. We could potentially do something like a 1*2*3*4*3*4 perm = 288 lines = £144. I want to be reasonably sure that I can cover /> 60% of the betting market in each leg, with a perm this small. As such, I would like to decide on the day (before noon), when odds are more accurately known. Can I suggest in the meantime that we do the prep work as if we were going for it. So MK, Micky and fellow removers, please be ready. Roger, are you OK to pre the spreadsheet? Cheers, G Posted by StayOrGo
Also, could someone, MK or Micky perhaps, please try to find out if they have watered the course, or are planning to, as this can affect the darw bias.
I expect the ground still to be good to firm, but would like to know if already watered or there are plans to water in the morning as no rain is expected bar a possible slight shower at 7pm tonight,and there is a slight drying wind.
Please note that Ascot appears to strongly favour hold up horses.
Key Characteristics
The Ascot course is a large galloping track of 14 furlongs circumference with a 2.5 Furlong run in. Races shorter than a mile are normally run on the straight course. Nowadays the ground in the straight drains quicker than the rest of the course so going descriptions can vary. The racing surface was re-laid during the redevelopment of 2005, together with the course configuration being altered slightly. Our analysis indicates that this re-configuration has meant that hold up horses have been heavily favoured.
5 Furlongs:
Conclusions
The course was re-developed in 2005 and their is not enough data to form any strong opinion. The limited data there is suggests an even spread of winners but due to the watering policy at Ascot any biases might be from meeting to meeting rather than over time.
6 Furlongs:
Conclusions
The course was re-developed in 2005 and their is not that much data to form any strong opinion. The limited data there is suggests an even spread of winners but due to the watering policy at Ascot any biases might be from meeting to meeting rather than over time.
7 Furlongs:
Conclusions
The 7 furlongs at Ascot is straight but there is not really enough data for any proper analysis, although the limited data available does suggest that being drawn high is very slightly preferred. Also it is interesting that a lot of runners have won from middle stalls in the big field races at Ascot.
1 mile (straight)
Conclusions
It is a widely held belief that high numbers are favoured in big fields, however the stats simply don't back this up. Overall their is very little bias, particularly in the smaller fields when the horses tend to form one group down the middle of the course. However it does appear that in bigger fields when typically the horses will split into two or more groups that it is actually low numbers which are favoured over Ascots straight mile.
1 mile (round)
Conclusions
They very rarely use the round mile at Ascot, and when they do the field sizes are quite small and therefore it would suggest that their is no draw bias on the Ascot round mile. However their is a view that being drawn low is a disadvantage as it results in horses being boxed in on the rail even in small fields.
Pace Bias:
There is a very significant pace bias at Ascot, as can be seen from the analysis above. It is very difficult to make the running and win at Ascot.
In terms of the individual distances, if we look at were Ascot ranks against other turf courses which have races over equivalent distances. Ascot is ranked at the bottom or near the bottom for Front Runners for every distance
5 Furlongs - 20th out of 31 courses 6 Furlongs - 29th out of 29 courses 7 Furlongs - 23rd out of 23 courses 8 Furlongs - 24th out of 25 courses 10 Furlongs - 25th out of 26 courses 12 Furlongs - 14th out of 16 courses
Also, could someone, MK or Micky perhaps, please try to find out if they have watered the course, or are planning to, as this can affect the darw bias. I expect the ground still to be good to firm, but would like to know if already watered or there are plans to water in the morning as no rain is expected bar a possible slight shower at 7pm tonight,and there is a slight drying wind. Cheers, G Posted by StayOrGo
only thing i see at mo is track was watered yesterday 4mm,will keep an eye out.
In Response to Re: ** JACKPOT SYNDICATE - OFFICIAL THREAD ** ALL PAYMENTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. TY. SHARE DEALINGS ARE NOW FROZEN UNTIL 26TH MAY 2017 : only thing i see at mo is track was watered yesterday 4mm,will keep an eye out. Posted by mkgunner
My knowledge of raacing is not good, i will pass on the REMOVERS tomorrow, i have no idea how you which horses are hold up & which front runners! Good luck us. Roger Posted by zadoc
Hi Roger, I usually watch the video form, or read their previous race descriptions to determine this.
I got the spreadsheet, TY, great job as always.
I will get the removers version out later tonight.
Comments
Key Characteristics
The course was re-developed in 2005 and their is not enough data to form any strong opinion. The limited data there is suggests an even spread of winners but due to the watering policy at Ascot any biases might be from meeting to meeting rather than over time.
The course was re-developed in 2005 and their is not that much data to form any strong opinion. The limited data there is suggests an even spread of winners but due to the watering policy at Ascot any biases might be from meeting to meeting rather than over time.
The 7 furlongs at Ascot is straight but there is not really enough data for any proper analysis, although the limited data available does suggest that being drawn high is very slightly preferred. Also it is interesting that a lot of runners have won from middle stalls in the big field races at Ascot.
It is a widely held belief that high numbers are favoured in big fields, however the stats simply don't back this up. Overall their is very little bias, particularly in the smaller fields when the horses tend to form one group down the middle of the course. However it does appear that in bigger fields when typically the horses will split into two or more groups that it is actually low numbers which are favoured over Ascots straight mile.
They very rarely use the round mile at Ascot, and when they do the field sizes are quite small and therefore it would suggest that their is no draw bias on the Ascot round mile. However their is a view that being drawn low is a disadvantage as it results in horses being boxed in on the rail even in small fields.
In terms of the individual distances, if we look at were Ascot ranks against other turf courses which have races over equivalent distances. Ascot is ranked at the bottom or near the bottom for Front Runners for every distance
5 Furlongs - 20th out of 31 courses
6 Furlongs - 29th out of 29 courses
7 Furlongs - 23rd out of 23 courses
8 Furlongs - 24th out of 25 courses
10 Furlongs - 25th out of 26 courses
12 Furlongs - 14th out of 16 courses
2.35 Kazimiera N/R