for those new to racing that are following all of the horses in the guineas are top top horses as will the undercards, the racing on sat and sunday will be of the highest standard there is, any money wagered your horses/jockeys will be giving there all.
me im extremely busy as most weekends due to my littlest in a judo comp and eldest in a footy comp sunday.
No surprise JACKPOT meeting tomorrow ( SAT ) NEWMARKET R Posted by zadoc
Yes, thx Roger and it will be there on Sunday too.
Would be good if we can get two rollovers, Sunday in particular is very tough, although we'd need a few favourites beat on Saturday for it to rollover.
I'm looking at the Windsor card and I think we need to be patient and give this one a miss. Of course it will be frustrating if it is won, but there are too many big fields where a potential Jackpot busting outsider may win. So we will watch with interest and hope for a rollover. Although a lot of people will go for it, so we'll see. I think discretion is the better part of valour here. Don't worry about doing the spreadsheet Roger. Cheers, G Posted by StayOrGo
Was just going to post exactly the same after having a quick look through the card. Roll on another rollover...
Had this thought while I was in the bath this morning!
If a situation arose when we had got through the first 5 legs of the jackpot and ,for example,we had say 4 of the 7 runners in the last leg and we knew more or less what we might win with any of our selections - would it make sense to back the remaining 3 selections to cover the cost of our perm of even to show a small profit? It would be most likely that the 3 we did not have would be outsiders and these could be backed according to the price so that if any of those 3 won we would cover the cost of our perm - of course if they lost we would get the jackpot up with a profit reduced by the amount we bet on the 3 outsiders. If we are talking about hopefully a large dividend the cost of the losing covering bets would not make a lot of difference. These outsiders could be backed on the exchanges at bigger prices than available eleswhere.
For example: We have laid out £500 on our perm and we are through to leg 6 . The remaining 3 that we do not have are available at 10/1 16/1 33/1 We could back them - £65 @ 10/1 , £40 @ 16/1 and £20 @ 33/1
That would mean a total outlay of £500 + the cost of the bets £125 = £625.
So if we got the jackpot up we would lose £125 from our returns but I am sure we would still be happy.If one of the 3 that we did not have in our perm won we would get back either £650,£640 or £660 resulting in a profit and lessening the disappointment of losing in the last leg of our jackpot bet.
Of course every situation will be different with regards to the size of our perm, how many runners there are and how many we have backed in the last race - if it happens to be a large field it would not be pratical to back say 5 or more horses but if a situation did arise similar to the example I have given then I think it makes a lot of sense to consider this type of insurance.
Had this thought while I was in the bath this morning! If a situation arose when we had got through the first 5 legs of the jackpot and ,for example,we had say 4 of the 7 runners in the last leg and we knew more or less what we might win with any of our selections - would it make sense to back the remaining 3 selections to cover the cost of our perm of even to show a small profit? It would be most likely that the 3 we did not have would be outsiders and these could be backed according to the price so that if any of those 3 won we would cover the cost of our perm - of course if they lost we would get the jackpot up with a profit reduced by the amount we bet on the 3 outsiders. If we are talking about hopefully a large dividend the cost of the losing covering bets would not make a lot of difference. These outsiders could be backed on the exchanges at bigger prices than available eleswhere. For example: We have laid out £500 on our perm and we are through to leg 6 . The remaining 3 that we do not have are available at 10/1 16/1 33/1 We could back them - £65 @ 10/1 , £40 @ 16/1 and £20 @ 33/1 That would mean a total outlay of £500 + the cost of the bets £125 = £625. So if we got the jackpot up we would lose £125 from our returns but I am sure we would still be happy.If one of the 3 that we did not have in our perm won we would get back either £650,£640 or £660 resulting in a profit and lessening the disappointment of losing in the last leg of our jackpot bet. Of course every situation will be different with regards to the size of our perm, how many runners there are and how many we have backed in the last race - if it happens to be a large field it would not be pratical to back say 5 or more horses but if a situation did arise similar to the example I have given then I think it makes a lot of sense to consider this type of insurance. I was in the bath for quite a long time! Posted by bearace
LOL.
Hi Bearace, this was mentioned to me by Phantom a while ago too.
My response is still the same.
In the hopeful situation where we are still in coming up to the last leg, I don't really want to be responsible for backing the other horses.
Some days I may be on the school run and not home in time for last race. There may not be enough in the kitty etc.
However, I understand why you ask, and there is absolutely nothing to stop you or others doing your own bets in these situations. I just don't want to do it using the money from the kitty for various reasons.
If this scenario happens, I may make a post after the 5th leg, suggesting people back horses x,y and z if they want to cover themselves. The amount people do it for should be appropriate, according to their number of shares.
OK, Ayr is a "probably" as it is likely that our banker will need to be in the 1st race again (it's the only odds-on shot on the card)
Whilst statistically it makes no difference what race our "banker" is in, I do hope for a decent run and a "sweat" for the syndicate, so not sure if we should do this. I did look at having two in the first leg, but that would really narrow our perm later on.
Leicester is a "maybe" as it is a reasonable card, but there is no clear banker.
If it is a rollover, I will post again on this thread and ask people their thoughts.
I think Ayr will be the most likely, so we may well have the first race "banker" dilemma.
We could have a PLAN A with just the banker in the first.
Then a PLAN B, if the "banker" drifts, or there is strong support for another horse, we could have two selections in the first leg, but it would be at the expense of removing at least two horses further down the line.
Comments
No idea on where the Jackpot card will be tomorrow.
My thoughts on whether we do it or not, are as follows:
AYR: YES
SOUTHWELL (AW): YES
STRATFORD: NO
CHELMSFORD (AW): YES
WINDSOR: PROBABLY NOT, BUT WOULD NEED TO RE-ASSESS TOMORROW
So it would be good if we can somehow get an early sight of where it is, team on standby until then.
Cheers,
G
Well that does leave me with a dilemma.
I will have to think about it.
It's an evening meeting so we have some time.
Cheers,
G
Of course it will be frustrating if it is won, but there are too many big fields where a potential Jackpot busting outsider may win.
So we will watch with interest and hope for a rollover. Although a lot of people will go for it, so we'll see.
I think discretion is the better part of valour here.
Don't worry about doing the spreadsheet Roger.
Cheers,
G
So you can keep track of the rollovers and when we have/are going for it, I have added a spreadsheet accordingly to the opening post.
Cheers,
G
Hi Bearace, this was mentioned to me by Phantom a while ago too.
My response is still the same.
In the hopeful situation where we are still in coming up to the last leg, I don't really want to be responsible for backing the other horses.
Some days I may be on the school run and not home in time for last race. There may not be enough in the kitty etc.
However, I understand why you ask, and there is absolutely nothing to stop you or others doing your own bets in these situations. I just don't want to do it using the money from the kitty for various reasons.
If this scenario happens, I may make a post after the 5th leg, suggesting people back horses x,y and z if they want to cover themselves. The amount people do it for should be appropriate, according to their number of shares.
Cheers,
G
In the event of a rollover at Windsor today, this is my thoughts.
AYR: PROBABLY
FAKENHAM: YES
FFOS LAS: YES
EXETER: YES
LEICESTER: MAYBE
OK, Ayr is a "probably" as it is likely that our banker will need to be in the 1st race again (it's the only odds-on shot on the card)
Whilst statistically it makes no difference what race our "banker" is in, I do hope for a decent run and a "sweat" for the syndicate, so not sure if we should do this. I did look at having two in the first leg, but that would really narrow our perm later on.
Leicester is a "maybe" as it is a reasonable card, but there is no clear banker.
If it is a rollover, I will post again on this thread and ask people their thoughts.
Cheers,
G
I think Ayr will be the most likely, so we may well have the first race "banker" dilemma.
We could have a PLAN A with just the banker in the first.
Then a PLAN B, if the "banker" drifts, or there is strong support for another horse, we could have two selections in the first leg, but it would be at the expense of removing at least two horses further down the line.
I would welcome your early thoughts.
Cheers,
G