The opening post has been updated to reflect our NO-GO decision for Leicester on 09/05/17.
It was a marginal decision for me, but I have respected the opinions of those who have posted on this thread. Wednesday's card at Chester (10/05/17) will be too tough, so we will take a look again on Wednesday night re Thursday. 11/05/17
Card looks reasonable with the exception of a banker. It looks like we'd have to go with Dalik in the 5th leg. It is even money atm. I would rather our banker was odds on. What do you think guys. GO or NO-GO? On phone atm. Will be back home at 6pm.
Thursdays card certainly looks easier than Wednesdays.Having said that the handicaps look tricky especially the 4.35 which would be the last leg - I am not sure how many selections in this race you would need in the perm to be confident of getting the winner.My inclination is to give it a miss but if you fancy it Graham go for it - as I said before I have total confidence in your judgement!
Thursdays card certainly looks easier than Wednesdays.Having said that the handicaps look tricky especially the 4.35 which would be the last leg - I am not sure how many selections in this race you would need in the perm to be confident of getting the winner.My inclination is to give it a miss but if you fancy it Graham go for it - as I said before I have total confidence in your judgement! Posted by bearace
Hi Bearace, in a way, I think it is good to have a couple of open races as it means that, if won, there is a reasonable chance that not too many units would be left.
The type of perm I would think about doing is as follows:
This type of perm would cost £216 so we could go a bit wider even, if we made it 5 selections in the 3.00pm and 7 selections in the 4.35 the perm cost goes up to £315.
So for me, the question surrounds the "banker". Is Even money too big, ideally it would be odds-on. Even if we were to add another selection to this leg, not only would it double the perm cost, it would also be tricky as to which other one to pick, as there are a whole host of contenders.
Are we happy to go with Dahik?
My thoughts are that we should go for it if there is support for Dahik and it either stays at evens or goes odds/on before the off of the first race.
It means it will be a late decision again. I will decide at about 1.20pm.
If anyone has a strong objection or concern over our "banker" please post here. Roger, please could you prep the spreadsheet in anticipation of a GO decision. (If you could let me know that you have seen this, that would be great) Cheers, G Posted by StayOrGo
In Response to Re: ** JACKPOT SYNDICATE - OFFICIAL THREAD ** IT'S A NO-GO FOR CHESTER 10/05/17 ** SHARE DEALINGS ARE NOW FROZEN UNTIL 26TH MAY 2017 : Hi G, OK I'M ON IT. DO WE KNOW IT'S CHESTER OR EDUCATED GUESS? R Posted by zadoc
Great, thanks R.
If it's not Chester, I would be amazed.
Was trying to find a funny anecdote, but nothing other than "eat my hat" and "I would be amazed" sprung to mind.
Anyhow if it's not Chester, you guys can pick a forfeit for me.
Something like playing Tikay at PLO8 DYM's for a week, would be a serious punishment :=)
Cheers,
G
P.S. Standby Remover's team. Anyone heard from Micky btw?
not sure on the banker atm but it does look a weak race.
i like khairaat in the first tho and wouldnt be surprized if that was odds on come off tomorrow.
P.S.
im working 12hour dayshifts this week which i overworked myself today to give myself easier day tomorrow to look for removers. i missed my banker race which i was undecided on 2, 1 of which won .
not sure on the banker atm but it does look a weak race. i like khairaat in the first tho and wouldnt be surprized if that was odds on come off tomorrow. Posted by MICKYBLUE
Hi Micky, thanks for this.
As always, I value your feedback. (It's always handy to have someone prepared to stick their neck out, so we can share the blame lol)
OK. I will look at that.
Are you saying you prefer we have Khairaat as the banker in the first and have say 2 or 3 selections in the 5th leg?
Or go for whichever one is the shortest price at 1.20pm?
In Response to Re: ** JACKPOT SYNDICATE - OFFICIAL THREAD ** IT'S A "PROBABLY" FOR CHESTER 11/05/17 ** SHARE DEALINGS ARE NOW FROZEN UNTIL 26TH MAY 2017 : Hi Micky, thanks for this. As always, I value your feedback. (It's always handy to have someone prepared to stick their neck out, so we can share the blame lol) OK. I will look at that. Are you saying you prefer we have that as the banker in the first and have say 2 or 3 selections in the 5th leg? Or go for whichever one is the shortest price at 1.20pm? Let me know your thoughts. Cheers, G Posted by StayOrGo
yeah i have broad shoulders lol
for me id go with the shortest come 1.20 pm
btw ill be removing any in the first bar favourite.
its had 3 runs 2 wins and was narroly beat in its maiden.
could others look at the 2 races and see if they strongly fancy anything please
In Response to Re: ** JACKPOT SYNDICATE - OFFICIAL THREAD ** IT'S A "PROBABLY" FOR CHESTER 11/05/17 ** SHARE DEALINGS ARE NOW FROZEN UNTIL 26TH MAY 2017 : yeah i have broad shoulders lol for me id go with the shortest come 1.20 pm btw ill be removing any in the first bar favourite. its had 3 runs 2 wins and was narroly beat in its maiden. could others look at the 2 races and see if they strongly fancy anything please Posted by MICKYBLUE
OK, if I do that, the final selections are going to be quite fluid until 1.20pm, and potential still so up until 1.50pm. As I will need to have a Plan A and a Plan B in case anything drastic happens last minute (betting wise) in the market for the first race.
Problem with the banker in the first is twofold, one it's disappointing for everyone if it loses (no sweat) and two, if it's a big drifter late on, a plan B is needed very quickly.
One advantage is that, being the first race, you have the full information available regarding the betting market, but the bet will need to be placed at the very last minute, which is OK, but one does need to be careful.
1 thing im looking at if there is non runners in the 16.05 (5th race) which i can see happening it should push the horse odds on further.
also ive not looked but there ment to be rain tommorow in some parts of country which some of these horses dont like so might get alot of late non runners.
Comments
It was a marginal decision for me, but I have respected the opinions of those who have posted on this thread. Wednesday's card at Chester (10/05/17) will be too tough, so we will take a look again on Wednesday night re Thursday. 11/05/17
Cheers,
G
Couple of outsiders winning legs 1 and 2 has knocked out all Jackpot contenders.
Cheers,
G
In Response to Re: ** JACKPOT SYNDICATE - OFFICIAL THREAD ** IT'S A NO-GO FOR CHESTER 10/05/17 ** SHARE DEALINGS ARE NOW FROZEN UNTIL 26TH MAY 2017:
Hi Bearace, in a way, I think it is good to have a couple of open races as it means that, if won, there is a reasonable chance that not too many units would be left.The type of perm I would think about doing is as follows:
1.50: 2 selections
2.25: 3 selections
3.00: 4 selections
3.35: 3 selections
4.05: 1 selection (Dahik)
4.35: 6 selections
This type of perm would cost £216 so we could go a bit wider even, if we made it 5 selections in the 3.00pm and 7 selections in the 4.35 the perm cost goes up to £315.
So for me, the question surrounds the "banker". Is Even money too big, ideally it would be odds-on. Even if we were to add another selection to this leg, not only would it double the perm cost, it would also be tricky as to which other one to pick, as there are a whole host of contenders.
Are we happy to go with Dahik?
My thoughts are that we should go for it if there is support for Dahik and it either stays at evens or goes odds/on before the off of the first race.
It means it will be a late decision again. I will decide at about 1.20pm.
Is everyone OK with that?
Cheers,
G
Roger, please could you prep the spreadsheet in anticipation of a GO decision. (If you could let me know that you have seen this, that would be great)
Cheers,
G
Our attempt statistically depends upon whether "Dahik" goes odds-on or not before the off of the first race.
As you know our strategy needs a banker and effectively an Even money shot covers about 45% of the betting market with a 10/11 shot 50%.
I would be happy to go for it (from a statistician's perspective) if we cover 50% of the market, 45% at a push.
So, as I stated earlier, if Dalik drifts out to odds against, then we will ABORT, EVENS or shorter and we go for it.
Unless anyone posts any objections, whatever the best odds available on Dahik are at 1.20pm will determine if we go for it or not.
EVENS OR LESS = YES
ODDS AGAINST = NO
Cheers,
G
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As always, I value your feedback. (It's always handy to have someone prepared to stick their neck out, so we can share the blame lol)
OK. I will look at that.
Are you saying you prefer we have Khairaat as the banker in the first and have say 2 or 3 selections in the 5th leg?
Or go for whichever one is the shortest price at 1.20pm?
Let me know your thoughts.
Cheers,
G
Problem with the banker in the first is twofold, one it's disappointing for everyone if it loses (no sweat) and two, if it's a big drifter late on, a plan B is needed very quickly.
One advantage is that, being the first race, you have the full information available regarding the betting market, but the bet will need to be placed at the very last minute, which is OK, but one does need to be careful.
Cheers,
G