Been having a think about combo perms to try and get good coverage weighted towards more likely (or favoured) selections. Above is not in selection priority order but I am thinking if it was, something like below:
e.g.
1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 1
12, 12, 1, 12, 1, 12 16
13, 13, 1, 13, 1, 13 16
1, 12, 12, 1, 12, 1 8
12, 1, 1, 12, 1, 12 8
123,12 ,12, 1, 1 123 36
13,123, 1, 1, 12, 123 36
12, 12, 2, 123, 2, 12 24
Total = 145 lines £14.50
I probably need to play a few tunes on it and each time it would depend on no. runners and shape of each individual race but after a few more practice attempts I might give something like this a try.
Been having a think about combo perms to try and get good coverage weighted towards more likely (or favoured) selections. Above is not in selection priority order but I am thinking if it was, something like below: e.g. 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 1 12, 12, 1, 12, 1, 12 16 13, 13, 1, 13, 1, 13 16 1, 12, 12, 1, 12, 1 8 12, 1, 1, 12, 1, 12 8 123,12 ,12, 1, 1 123 36 13,123, 1, 1, 12, 123 36 12, 12, 2, 123, 2, 12 24 Total = 145 lines £14.50 I probably need to play a few tunes on it and each time it would depend on no. runners and shape of each individual race but after a few more practice attempts I might give something like this a try. Posted by Phantom66
Hi Phantom, I definitely think you are barking up the right type of tree with this concept.
I'm giving myself a bit of a break after all the exertions of the last few racing days, but if you are interested, a bit later, I can post what I consider to be +ev perm structures for Placepots.
It would work under a proviso of splitting each race into a "type" ie:
NOT VERY COMPETITIVE (Just a few fancied runners and short priced favourite)
COMPETITIVE (Fairly open affair, say 3/1, 7/2 fav ish)
VERY COMPETITIVE (Usually races where the favourite is > 5/1)
I often find that the best type of cards for Placepots have around two of each of the above category.
Let me know if you are interested in my perm structures for Placepots and I will document them and post on this thread.
I took a look at the Carlisle card and it sets up nice to be a test case, so please see spreadsheet below: I will add my horses for the A's, B's, C's etc. shortly
Please bear in mind that I am doing this purely as a statistical exercise, I haven't looked at a single piece of horse form, I am making my selections based upon the proviso that each horses odds accurately reflect it's chance.
In reality you would assess your opinion of their chances, although I do actually believe that a profit can be made without even looking at any form. (I am sure that statement will meet with some criticism)
Each perm is 72 lines, so at 10p would be £7.20 * 6 = £43.20 or at 5p (in shop) would cost £21.60
Please note that in the "VERY COMPETITIVE" races, I have moved away from the first few in the betting.
I'm hoping to get the "RP Favourites", the likes of WEST DRIVE (5/1 Fav) beat in the 3.00PM and CARNAGIO (6/1 Fav), GEORGIAN BAY (7/1 Joint 2nd Fav) and GORING (7/1 Joint 2nd Fav) beat in the 3.30PM.
This is because they are likely to be over-represented in the pool, while the 8/1 to 14/1 bracket are likely to be under-represented.
Of course when the "RP Favourites" DO place in these tough handicaps, it lowers the dividend AND I won't have them in my perm so it's a double negative, but if they do get beat, it is a double positive, as one is likely to still be in where a lot of people would have gone out, which means you give yourself the potential to win when it's a high dividend.
We'll see how it goes. I will amend would be selections before the off, based on non-runners and market moves, but I won't look at any form. I will the do a separate list of A's B's and C's (using same perm strategy) but using people's NAP selections. So it will be a fun exercise of pure statistics v form analysis/statistics combo.
I could definitely do with a bit more statistical analysis to improve my coverage, but it just feels right to cut down costs and keep more fancied horses in more perms but have good coverage of those outside the top 2. Brighton there were a lot of small fields which meant I stuck to a max of 3 but at a card like carlisle today you definitely need more selections.
If I get time before the off I will try a perm myself, but with those tough large field handicaps I think it will take some getting.
Given the fact sky are offering 5 places on the 3.00 and 3.30 I wonder if a few permed ew accumulators may be a better option today?
At least at the moment there are no 7 horse races which I hate in these placepots.
I haven't followed you exactly here G, but I am moving towards it. That is not because I do not believe you and I definitely don't think I know better. I just find the best why to learn is try something for myself and then compare that versus alternatives.
So my selections for the practice perm are as follows. I noted in alot of the races the top 2 are close in the betting so I have gone for the SP Fav alot and then avoided the top 2 as named selections. Happy to try that in a placepot but missing all 2nd Favs is obviously no good in a jackpot attempt.
TIME
Sel 1
Sel 2
Sel 3
Sel 4
Sel 5
2.00
SP FAV
John Kirkup
Aquadabra
2.30
SP FAV
Star of Zaam
Byrons Choce
3.00
SP FAV
Mukhayyam
Swaheen
Panko
3.30
SP FAV
King's Pavilion
Georgian Boy
Pensax Boy
Intensical
4.00
Bletchley
Aurora Butterfly
Isabel's on it
4.30
SP FAV
Enjoy Life
Little Miss Kodi
Bush Beauty
Now that would be a highly prohibitive single perm of 2160 lines £216.00
I will be placing my virtual placepot as 8 perms based on the above selections...
PERM
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2.00
12
1
13
1
12
1
23
1
2.30
12
123
13
1
12
1
23
12
3.00
12
134
14
12
13
234
12
13
3.30
12
123
145
12
124
2345
13
125
4.00
1
1
1
12
1
1
1
13
4.30
12
13
14
12
23
134
124
12
Lines
32
54
48
16
48
36
48
48
Lines
330
COST
£33.00
I wont be around to "watch in play" unfortunately so will miss out on any sweat.
Clearly I am not covered well if Bletchley doesnt live up to obvious banker status.
To easily calculate the number of lines in a perm from the table above I use the LEN function which calculates the number of digits (or characters - so will work with ABC) in a cell.
So the "Lines" formula, e.g for Perm1 is =LEN(B4)*LEN(B5)*LEN(B6)*LEN(B7)*LEN(B8)*LEN(B9)
Where B4 is the cell containing 12 for the 1st Perm and the 2.30 race
PS Excel tip.... To easily calculate the number of lines in a perm from the table above I use the LEN function which calculates the number of digits (or characters - so will work with ABC) in a cell. So the "Lines" formula, e.g for Perm1 is =LEN(B4)*LEN(B5)*LEN(B6)*LEN(B7)*LEN(B8)*LEN(B9) Where B4 is the cell containing 12 for the 1st Perm and the 2.30 race Posted by Phantom66
Thanks for the excel tip and best of luck today.
I totally agree that trying things for yourself and re-assessing is the way to go.
Although one needs to be careful not to be too results orientated and think that when we win is was right and when we lose it was wrong, but from what I see your perm structures are progressing nicely.
gl both and will follow closely as I cant do anything else today cos of the weather. Graham am I right to say that after race 1 you are still going in perms a, c, d looks like phantom still going in 1,5,7 Posted by vaigret
Comments
I took a look at the Carlisle card and it sets up nice to be a test case, so please see spreadsheet below: I will add my horses for the A's, B's, C's etc. shortly
Please bear in mind that I am doing this purely as a statistical exercise, I haven't looked at a single piece of horse form, I am making my selections based upon the proviso that each horses odds accurately reflect it's chance.
In reality you would assess your opinion of their chances, although I do actually believe that a profit can be made without even looking at any form. (I am sure that statement will meet with some criticism)
Each perm is 72 lines, so at 10p would be £7.20 * 6 = £43.20 or at 5p (in shop) would cost £21.60
Cheers,
G
Here is my A,B.C,D,E and F's. (Based solely on their odds/market position without looking at any form).
AMENDED AT 1.55PM based on market moves:
Cheers,
G
I'm hoping to get the "RP Favourites", the likes of WEST DRIVE (5/1 Fav) beat in the 3.00PM and CARNAGIO (6/1 Fav), GEORGIAN BAY (7/1 Joint 2nd Fav) and GORING (7/1 Joint 2nd Fav) beat in the 3.30PM.
This is because they are likely to be over-represented in the pool, while the 8/1 to 14/1 bracket are likely to be under-represented.
Of course when the "RP Favourites" DO place in these tough handicaps, it lowers the dividend AND I won't have them in my perm so it's a double negative, but if they do get beat, it is a double positive, as one is likely to still be in where a lot of people would have gone out, which means you give yourself the potential to win when it's a high dividend.
We'll see how it goes. I will amend would be selections before the off, based on non-runners and market moves, but I won't look at any form. I will the do a separate list of A's B's and C's (using same perm strategy) but using people's NAP selections. So it will be a fun exercise of pure statistics v form analysis/statistics combo.
Hope this is of use anyway.
Cheers,
G
I totally agree that trying things for yourself and re-assessing is the way to go.
Although one needs to be careful not to be too results orientated and think that when we win is was right and when we lose it was wrong, but from what I see your perm structures are progressing nicely.
Cheers,
G
Virtual GL us!
Graham am I right to say that after race 1 you are still going in perms
a, c, d
looks like phantom still going in
1,5,7
Just got Byrons Choice as a winner
and looks like you both all in carrying on to leg 3
Off on the school run.
GL P66!
G