Figure 2 displays Remainers’ assessments of Leavers’ reasons for voting Leave. It shows that Remain voters overestimate the importance that Leave voters attach to both regaining control over EU immigration and teaching British politicians a lesson. 52% of Remain voters rank ‘Leavers wanted the UK to regain control over EU immigration’ first, whereas only 39% of Leave voters rank ‘to regain control over EU immigration’ first. And 12% of Remain voters rank ‘Leavers wanted to teach British politicians a lesson’ first, whereas only 3% of Leave voters rank ‘to teach British politicians a lesson’ first.
This is flawed in exactly the same way as Opinion Polls.
It does NOT give the reason that people vote in a particular way. It gives the reason that the voter SAYS was the reason they voted in a particular way. They are not the same thing.
When some Opinion Pollster asks someone whether they will vote for Corbyn, many who would (and do) say otherwise. Similarly, many people for whom Immigration was the most important factor will not say so, due to the negative implications some people put on such a statement.
The way people SAY they voted, and why, are not the same as why they DID, 3 years before. I am sure that would also be true for Remain voters.
Well , the individual responses to these questions aren't made public , so I fail to see why anyone wouldn't tell the truth because of " negative implications" ...or am I misunderstanding your point ?
People do not trust pollsters to keep responses secret. People answer these polls in front of family members, who may have very different views. People lie to themselves. On all sides of the debate (not just leavers).
Figure 2 displays Remainers’ assessments of Leavers’ reasons for voting Leave. It shows that Remain voters overestimate the importance that Leave voters attach to both regaining control over EU immigration and teaching British politicians a lesson. 52% of Remain voters rank ‘Leavers wanted the UK to regain control over EU immigration’ first, whereas only 39% of Leave voters rank ‘to regain control over EU immigration’ first. And 12% of Remain voters rank ‘Leavers wanted to teach British politicians a lesson’ first, whereas only 3% of Leave voters rank ‘to teach British politicians a lesson’ first.
This is flawed in exactly the same way as Opinion Polls.
It does NOT give the reason that people vote in a particular way. It gives the reason that the voter SAYS was the reason they voted in a particular way. They are not the same thing.
When some Opinion Pollster asks someone whether they will vote for Corbyn, many who would (and do) say otherwise. Similarly, many people for whom Immigration was the most important factor will not say so, due to the negative implications some people put on such a statement.
The way people SAY they voted, and why, are not the same as why they DID, 3 years before. I am sure that would also be true for Remain voters.
Well , the individual responses to these questions aren't made public , so I fail to see why anyone wouldn't tell the truth because of " negative implications" ...or am I misunderstanding your point ?
People do not trust pollsters to keep responses secret. People answer these polls in front of family members, who may have very different views. People lie to themselves. On all sides of the debate (not just leavers).
I hear what you are saying , but no one in polls like this are compelled to be involved Genuinely don't see what could possibly be gained from doing one , if you feel that you will have to lie . Why not just decline to take part ? Also with this particular one nobody was asked how and why they voted , just to rank why they thought others voted .
Leading Brexiteer Peter Oborne Calls For 'Long Pause' To Leaving And Admits Economic Arguments 'Destroyed'
A prominent supporter of Brexit has called for a “long pause” over quitting the European Union - and even suggested “rethinking the decision altogether”. Peter Oborne, a respected writer and Daily Mail columnist, argues the country should take up European Council President Donald Tusk’s offer of a year’s delay as he contends Brexit has “paralysed the system”. His position is driven by the economic impact of the “flood” of companies quitting the country, the possible break-up of the United Kingdom and the “deceit” of the Leave campaign. Oborne also hits out at fellow Brexiteers for the “succession of claims about leaving the EU that have turned out to be untrue”. “I argue, as a Brexiteer, that we need to take a long deep breath. We need to swallow our pride, and think again. Maybe it means rethinking the Brexit decision altogether,” he writes. Author ofThe Rise of Political Lyingand ex-chief commentator at the Daily Telegraph, Oborne is noted as an independent thinker. The high-profile Conservative raised eyebrows in 2014 and 2015 for repeatedly praising Ed Miliband as a “principled and courageous” politician, despite the then-Labour leader battling David Cameron for Number 10. Oborne has frequently criticised Conservative government policy on the Middle East, particular around Saudi Arabia, but remained a passionate supporter of Brexit, often slamming the “hypocrisy” of EU leaders. His apparent about-turn comes as Theresa May attempts to thrash out a compromise deal with Jeremy Corbyn, and will next week find out whether the remaining 27 EU countries will agree to a second extension to delay Brexit. Without the delay or an agreement that can finally pass through parliament, the UK is set to leave the bloc on Friday without a deal.
In a piece for the Open Democracy website, Oborne writes that Brexit has “turned Britain into a laughing stock”. He points to a series of companies that have made investment decisions following the referendum, including Nissan, Sony and Dyson, and expresses his sadness as “the trickle of companies announcing plans to leave Britain has turned into a flood”. In a key line, he says: “If we are honest, we Brexiteers have to admit that the economic arguments for Brexit have been destroyed by a series of shattering blows.” He also writes that Britain’s departure from the EU will be as “great a disaster for our country as the over-mighty unions were in the 1960s and 1970s”. Arguing that investors and the hard left have been the most vocal in support of Brexit, he says: “When hedge-fund managers and the Communist Party see eye-to-eye on any question, it’s time to be concerned.” He warns a “clumsily executed Brexit” will hit wages, jobs and public services and that there is “zero chance” of a “sensible Brexit” given the “pandemonium and hysteria at Westminster just now”. Oborne thinks a Tory leadership contest, triggered after May announced she would stand down once a deal passes, adds to it being the “worse time to make the decision about how to leave Europe”.
He goes on to defend his position as a Brexiteer, arguing the EU is “not democratic”. He adds: “Part of me, therefore, still feels proud of Brexit. Well done Britain for challenging remote oligarchs based in Brussels.” But he counters that the “bitter and angry debate” since has led him to conclude that “this is not just a simple problem of whether or not we are patriots”. He says: “I readily accept that the European Union is a dysfunctional body beset by all manner of problems. But the lesson of the last two years is that we are much better off working inside the EU ... for reform and not as a hostile neighbour.” He also fears that “like almost everybody else” the importance of the Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland has been “underestimated”: “We’ve all misunderstood the Irish question, even though it has loomed so large in our history for the last 500 years.” After finally railing against the “false prospectus” offered by Brexiteers, he concludes the UK should “grab (Tusk’s) kindly offer of a year’s sabbatical”. He adds: “Suspending Brexit will be greatly preferable to the alternative. How many important decisions in our own lives, too, have had to be taken on such a chilly and unexciting consideration? It’s time for a long pause.”
The Catch-up: The plot to oust Theresa May within 48 hours
What happened? Tory Brexiteers have launched a bid to unseat Theresa May by Wednesday in a bid to force the UK to leave the EU without a deal on Friday. Rebel MP Mark Francois masterminded the plan, demanding a non-binding vote of confidence in Mrs May’s leadership. He said if MPs voted against Mrs May she would be placed under immense pressure to quit. As it stands, the UK is due to leave the EU on 12 April unless another extension is granted. Will it work? A successful vote of no confidence in Theresa May would not be legally binding, meaning the PM could chose to ignore it. While this would be highly unusual, Mrs May has so far weathered an extremely rocky premiership without caving to pressure to quit. The PM survived an official vote of no confidence in her leadership in December, meaning the process cannot be triggered for another year. What does this mean for Brexit? The latest in a long line of Brexiteer revolts, Mr Francois’ attempt to push Mrs May out of the door demonstrates the deep unease over her Brexit strategy. The PM has reached out to Labour in an attempt to come up with a plan to break the Brexit deadlock, which Eurosceptics fear will mean a move towards a soft Brexit. Mrs May suggested she might soften her red lines yesterday when she released a video saying that talks will mean ‘compromise on both sides’. The EU will decide on Wednesday whether or not there has been enough progress in the talks to merit another short Brexit extension. If they say no, the UK will leave without a deal on Friday.
The latest on Brexit features on many of Tuesday's newspaper front pages as Theresa May prepares to meet Germany and France's leaders for further Brexit talks. A number of papers have pictures of the German Chancellor Angela Merkel holding a ball - a gift from the German Handball Federation - as she prepares to meet Mrs May today. For the Sun, the ball is now in the EU's court as the leaders of the 27 other member states decide on the UK's request for a further delay to Brexit. The price of the delay, the Times reports, will be an assurance from Britain that it will not block or disrupt EU decisions during an extension period. The Guardian says the prime minister will promise to be a good member of the EU until departure day and tell them that talks with Labour have a serious chance of reaching a deal.
The Mail reports that following talks between the government and Labour, the two sides are said to be close to agreement on ensuring the UK remains in step with EU laws on workers' rights and the environment - but there is no agreement yet on possible customs arrangements. The Telegraph says it can disclose that Mrs May is considering giving MPs a vote on whether to hold a further referendum in a bid to break the deadlock in negotiations with Labour. According to the newspaper, she held discussions with Cabinet ministers yesterday about the prospect of a Commons vote on whether to enshrine a commitment to a referendum in law. The Financial Times says Eurosceptic anger has mounted as both the government and Labour explore a compromise on a future EU customs arrangement. According to the paper, the Leader of the House of Commons, Andrea Leadsom, was said by onlookers to have been "incandescent with anger" as she berated Mrs May for letting Jeremy Corbyn influence any Brexit outcome.
It adds that the reality of Mrs May's plan to seek another Brexit delay sank in last night when the Conservative Party rushed to find candidates to contest the European Parliament elections. Meanwhile, the Telegraph also reports that Theresa May is facing demands to stand down immediately after senior Tory backbenchers told her that she was now "the problem". The paper says officials from the 1922 Committee met the prime minister in Downing Street on Monday and warned her that the mood among party supporters had turned against her over the weekend. Sources have told the paper that Mrs May "sat in stony silence and refused to discuss her future". According to the Guardian, Tory MPs are submitting a fresh batch of letters expressing no confidence in Mrs May - even though, under party rules, they cannot challenge her until December. But, the paper adds, they hope the number of letters will be so great that they can't be ignored.
Brexit CHAOS: 28 MPs split from ERG due to 'unicorn hardline element endangering Brexit' THE EUROSCEPTIC European Research Group remains in chaos after 28 MPs broke away from the group on Monday.
Yesterday evening, Daniel Kaczynski resigned claiming that the “hardcore element” of the party were jeopardising Brexit. The MP for Shrewsbury and Atcham is reportedly now part of a 28-strong group of former ERG MPs who have broken away from the main group due to their hardline Brexit stance, according to talkRADIO. The radio station reported: “The 28 remaining Tory Brexit rebels are meeting separately from the rest of the ERG.
They met at lunchtime today. Their WhatsApp group is called 'the real mainstream’.” The ERG has been a constant thorn in the side of Theresa May and have voted against the Prime Minister’s deal despite Jacob Rees-Mogg admitting that he would back Mrs May in the most recent vote. In a statement following his resignation, Mr Kaczynski said: “Have decided to resign from ERG. “Despite excellent Chairmanship by Jacob Rees Mogg who has accommodated all views I can no longer be a member of the caucas which is preventing a Withdrawal Agreement from passing.
“Hardcore element of ‘Unicorn’ dreamers now actually endangering Brexit.” The group holds a significant amount of influence in the Commons but with the split, it could provide Mrs May a lifeline in trying to get her deal through Parliament. The ERG split comes as the House of Lords passed an amendment which required the Prime Minister to seek an extension to Article 50 in the aim of avoiding a no deal Brexit. The Yvette Cooper bill aims now has become enshrined in law and requires Mrs May to seek an extension beyond April 12.
MPs also rejected an amendment which sought to stop Brexit being delayed beyond May 22. Mrs May will request a Brexit delay until June 30 during an emergency EU summit on Wednesday. The Prime Minister also spoke to Leo Varadkar, the Irish Prime Minister, on Monday to discuss her desire to extend Article 50. Mr Varadkar expressed his openness to the idea of the of extending the withdrawal deadline.
May's BIGGEST gamble: PM risks LOSING BREXIT by allowing vote on SECOND REFERENDUM THERESA MAY could gamble on Brexit ever happening by holding a free Commons vote on a second referendum, it has been revealed.
If you don't want to watch the vid , he sums it up at the end quite succintly with where Labour are : customs union , market access, and protection of rights
Pleeze Sir Graham Brady Sir, can we have anuvver go to get rid of the prime minister?
We happy few can reright the course of history: a letter wot Mark Francois rote
Dear Sir Graham Brady Sir, I am wrITing to you in a perSONal capacity as the aNGRiest member of parlyment. I am very very very AnGry with Theresa May. Or in her case, TheRESa Maybenot, if you Get my drift. It has come to my attenshun that when we had a no confidence vote last DeCember many of uz were not in possession of all the facts. So it was not a truly deMCRratic vote like the 2016 referendum wuz. Back Then we knew everythink about wot we were doing and 17.4 million heroically voted to be poorer in a no deal Brexit so that GREAT!! Britain never never shall be slaves to the hated eU. So now we want anuvver go to get rid of the prime minister pleeze. Nothing less than the future of our beloved Country rests on you saying YES. We are livining in a world GONe mad. One where idiots Like me get to go on TV loads and loads. So it’s not all bad. But sUM things are very very bad and there is nothing worse than a Conservative prime minister – Propped Up by a Ssinister Remainiaciacal caBBAL in the caBINet – trying to keep us locked into a dreaded CUSToms unION foreffer.
That wOUld mean under EU law I would never be able to change my name bak to Mark Frank. At least that’s what Andrew BridGIng told me and he knos everyFink. And hes my Frend so there. So THank God, who is ENGLISH through and THREw, for the unelected Lords for standing up against the democratically elected House of ComMUns and trying to keep No Deal on the table. Or TABle as the fRench call it. And wot you Might Ask are all the so-called Brexiteers in the govenmint doing? I’ll tell you what they are DOing. Absolutely **** nothing. They are just sitting around on their Fat Arses eating pizza with prOSHooto topping. Typical. They can’t even order in a proper British Pizza with ham and pineapple. PatriotISMism is going to the dogs. So since the “OFFFicer Class” has let us down so badly, it’s left to the Poor **** Infantry to lead the fightback. Private MArc Francis of the UninteLLigents Corp reporting for DUTY sir, Sir Graham Brady Sir. Which brings me on to my Next Point. It is an outrage to every normal red-FACed Englishman that the prime minister is actively CONSorting with a known Marxist. The loyal Spartins of the EUropean Reseach Group did not nobly vote down Theresa MayHEM’s – see what I did vere? – deal to take us out of the dreaded EU three times only for hur to cosy up with Jereyours CorBIN a man who has been on holiday to Cuba and eats more than his fair share of vegEATables in order to take us out of the dreaded EU. And another FINg. That letter the prime minister Rote to the EU Council about the extenTION. Total **** liberty, if you’ll excuse my languidge, Mr Sir Graham Brady Sir. I’m just at the end of my tether. I reeLLY am. First she hopes to fool parlyment wiv a bill that is so long that most orDINErry MPs wont be able to read it proply. Then she only GOES and commits us to taking part in European elections that might even turn out to be a total waste of time as we MIte have left and lets hope they are as if THEres one thing worse than fighting European eleCTions it’s having MEPs. It’s a totul shambles.
I would also like to remind you I was once Junior Europe Monitor in the school cadet force. A TOUR of DUTY in which I was happy to serve with exTINction. What I learned dURing that time was the EU doesn’t like it up em. So it’s time for us to stop being such COWARDS. We need to tell Johnny Forriner where to get off and then he will cave in and tell us to sod off without a deal. sPeshully if we as a Conservtive party have given the prime minister the push on the wEndsday afternoon before she TAKES her begging bowl to Brussils. The future of the WHOLE Country is now in the hands of just 313 Conservative MPs. If we get this Write, we happy few can reright the course of history and make our Country a failed state and the LAUGHING stock it deserves to be. But only you Sir, Sir Graham Brady Sir Sir, can make this Happen. So I am bEGGing you, begging you on my hands and Nees – no mean feet as I’m not sure if I’ll be able to get back up again – to rethink. In the nAME of God, give us a second vote. Democracy demands NO less. Yours ever, Mark Francois. And you can shove the cedilla where the son dont shine.
It gave me great pleasure to wake up this morning and discover that the ERG was imploding. The party within a party appear to have become two smaller parties within the Tory party. I cannot think of anything that would give me more pleasure than the ERG going down in history as the blundering fools that lost Brexit. Ok there are a few other things, like winning the lottery, perhaps.
They are already the blundering fools that screwed up unseating the PM, and the idiots that turn up on the telly to inform the public that they will never in a million years vote for the Withdrawal Agreement as a matter of principle, and that no deal was what all leavers voted for, only to abandon theses principles a week later, and vote for the WA.
He also attracted criticism for berating a one legged wheel chair user for begging outside the Houses of Parliament, and had to pay back £4,000 during the expenses scandal. He was apparently guilty of persistently asking a young research assistant to go out on a date with a rich businessman contact of his, that was old enough to be her father. He is a strong supporter of the Saudi Government.
Mark Francois has probably been more prominent on our screens, looking fit to burst much of the time. If I owned the insurance company carrying his life insurance I would be concerned enough to attempt to offload it.
He recently gained publicity for an interview where he ripped up a letter written by Tom Enders the Airbus CEO, expressing Brexit concerns. He stated that his Dad was D Day veteran, he had served in the army, and planned to take no notice of a German when we won the war. After this outburst I imagined him to be a member of some crack squad like the SAS or SBS, or maybe a Royal Marine. Not so he was a part time member of the Territorial Army.
In another outburst he quoted Jesus, after the Yvette Cooper Bill got passed by one vote. It was concluded that he was a naughty boy rather than The Messiah. In further meltdowns he vowed not to vote for the Brexit deal with a gun in his mouth, sent a fraternal message to the Chancellor live on radio which was "up yours", and was involved in a bit of a ridiculous stare-down on Politics Live with Will Self. He later claimed that the stare-down was caused by Self claiming, immediately prior to the show going on air, that he had a small ****. In the spirit of balance Francois stated that was not true, in fact he went further and suggested that the opposite was true.
Last but not least Jacob Rees-Mogg, If I had to comment on all the lies and half truths he spouted forth about Brexit, I would miss the main event tonight. he is deserving of my utter contempt.
He is the leader of the blundering fools. He is their Captain Mainwaring. His latest escapade, ignoring the democracy that he values so much, in an attempt to threaten the EU about the repercussions of elected British MEPs disrupting the workings of the EU, in the hope that the EU will refuse an extension, and leave us with no option other than the catastrophe which is no deal.
How could this be considered democratic, when Parliament have voted against no deal a number of times, and in favour of an extension.
He must think the EU are stupid, they are not, and will take steps to counteract his plan.
Figure 2 displays Remainers’ assessments of Leavers’ reasons for voting Leave. It shows that Remain voters overestimate the importance that Leave voters attach to both regaining control over EU immigration and teaching British politicians a lesson. 52% of Remain voters rank ‘Leavers wanted the UK to regain control over EU immigration’ first, whereas only 39% of Leave voters rank ‘to regain control over EU immigration’ first. And 12% of Remain voters rank ‘Leavers wanted to teach British politicians a lesson’ first, whereas only 3% of Leave voters rank ‘to teach British politicians a lesson’ first.
This is flawed in exactly the same way as Opinion Polls.
It does NOT give the reason that people vote in a particular way. It gives the reason that the voter SAYS was the reason they voted in a particular way. They are not the same thing.
When some Opinion Pollster asks someone whether they will vote for Corbyn, many who would (and do) say otherwise. Similarly, many people for whom Immigration was the most important factor will not say so, due to the negative implications some people put on such a statement.
The way people SAY they voted, and why, are not the same as why they DID, 3 years before. I am sure that would also be true for Remain voters.
Well , the individual responses to these questions aren't made public , so I fail to see why anyone wouldn't tell the truth because of " negative implications" ...or am I misunderstanding your point ?
People do not trust pollsters to keep responses secret. People answer these polls in front of family members, who may have very different views. People lie to themselves. On all sides of the debate (not just leavers).
I hear what you are saying , but no one in polls like this are compelled to be involved Genuinely don't see what could possibly be gained from doing one , if you feel that you will have to lie . Why not just decline to take part ? Also with this particular one nobody was asked how and why they voted , just to rank why they thought others voted .
Big shift in public opinion in favour of immigration
Incredible shift in immigration attitudes in IpsosMORI trend surveys: 64% were negative about immigration in 2011, now down to 26%. We were among most negative countries, now among most positive. – Bobby Duffy on Twitter
Just under half (44%) say that migration has had a positive impact on Britain according to a new Ipsos MORI survey among British adults aged 18-75. Three in ten (30%) say migration’s impact has been negative on the country while one in five (20%) say its impact has been neutral. These findings are consistent with previous research by Ipsos MORI which found the British public’s attitudes towards migration have become more positive since the referendum.
Britain is in a grimmer state than I can ever remember
As we wait for the EU to decide on a Brexit delay, the national mood has turned poisonous
The mood has turned nastier since I first visited the Big Help Project food bank in Knowsley, Merseyside, two years ago. Back then, the Brexit poison hadn’t seeped so deep. But now, when the call goes out for food donations to feed its 10,000 clients, things have changed, says Peter Mitchell, the project leader. “I get people asking, ‘Is this food for British people?’ I never used to hear that, never. It’s hideous, it makes my blood boil.”
How does he reply? “I say this food is for hungry people.” He sighs heavily. “Brexit did this. It gives permission to copy Farage and Trump, to say things they never used to say.” He points to the rising racism in football, with a coconut thrown at a black player over the weekend. “It makes you despair. Brexit is doing this to us”. Knowsley, which is among the UK’s poorest constituencies, is one of the hardest hit, with half of its council budget cut. The project’s 10 food banks are “thriving”: Mitchell observes the irony. This social enterprise now provides debt advice, a credit union, food and furniture shops, moses baskets of baby things for new mothers and a housing co-op. With 125 volunteers playing their part, this feels like a beleaguered community at its best in the face of terrible adversity. But Mitchell, a Liverpool councillor, despairs of new attitudes in the wake of Brexit. “I see society changing before my eyes, empowering the worst. This is the end product of Thatcher’s 1980s, where individualism has won out over collectivism: it’s all me and mine; a selfishness that comes from that idea that the private is better than the public. Politically? Apathy reigns.”
Mitchell tried to rouse people to protest against the bedroom tax, but only 300 turned up. “People have given up, turned in on themselves in their own homes.” Austerity has twined itself around Brexit like bindweed, causing hardship, embittering its victims. Once, the pied pipers of Brexit played tunes of hope and optimism with fantasies of buccaneering freedom, but none of that is left; not in Westminster or anywhere else. The fairy dust blew away, and now all that’s left is the dark, backward-looking nativism that underpinned it. Disappointment at the vanished new dawn has turned the remnants of the Brexit creed into angry, determined calls to just “do it”, never mind the dire consequences. The much-mocked Project Fear Treasury forecasts are already proving correct: they warned a Brexit vote would mean households losing out by £4,300 by 2030. Households are already £1,500 worse off, and becoming poorer faster than forecast, in the worst era for growth since the 1860s, according to Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Now the Osborne-Hammond screw has tightened again as the benefits freeze continues into a new fiscal year. The poor already lose an average of £340 annually, which is two months’ food shopping for an average low-income family, according to the Joseph Rowntree Foundation. By this time next year, there will be 400,000 more poor children as a result, with food banks busier than ever.
Still, the cabinet minister, Andrea Leadsom, tells the BBC’s Andrew Marr that leaving on no deal would be “not nearly as grim” as some believe. But grim it is: this country on the verge of a nervous breakdown feels grimmer than I can ever remember, on both sides of the angry Brexit divide. This week we hover in purgatory, not in control but at the mercy of the 27 EU leaders meeting on Wednesday to decide our fate: into the abyss, or the respite of a long and flexible Brexit extension. Until that is secured, Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn will go on making nice in an agreed charade to persuade the EU that delay could bring a cross-party pact. Let’s hope Europe chooses to believe it. The impasse is that half May’s cabinet and all her party’s grassroots will not tolerate the customs union Labour must have – call it something else, some suggest. But it’s either frictionless trade that forbids the UK striking outside deals, or it’s nothing. No verbal gymnast can pole-vault that one. If Labour agrees on any deal without insisting voters get the final say, the party will be done for. The Change UK group fears a stitch-up where a sequence of votes allows MPs to vote yes to the customs union (they almost did already) but no to the public vote, allowing both parties to claim clean hands after a free vote with no one to blame. Both Tory and Labour members would be spitting, possibly to the point of splitting, but helpless to prevent it. However, I trust that Keir Starmer, Tom Watson, Emily Thornberry and others will guarantee Labour’s commitment: no deal without a vote. As Starmer said, the ball is in May’s court: can she ever bend?
Assuming the extension, if there’s no deal by 22 May, the EU elections will be a proxy referendum. That’s May’s best threat to terrify her deranged tendency, but both parties have much to fear. Prof Robert Ford, one of the sharpest political analysts, expects Nigel Farage’s new Brexit party to storm the barricades, dragging the Tories ever rightwards, further towards nationalism and xenophobia, further than ever from modernising. YouGov shows the Tories now only have a majority among over-51s, a moribund party. Unless Labour campaigns as an undisputed remain party, it too will be trampled under the wheels of Change UK, the Greens and Lib Dems. A Corbyn campaign barn-storming the country with pro-EU passion stretches credulity, but equivocation and triangulation could see Labour votes haemorrhage to authentically pro-European parties, never to return. Democracy is in a rotten state when you find the corridors of Westminster filled with MPs trembling with fright at the prospect of facing their voters. Mostly Tory, but also some Labour, MPs in leave seats fear any test in a general election, referendum or EU elections. But progressives should welcome any chance to set out the pro-European case fearlessly everywhere, to turn the tide on the dark thoughts in Knowsley.
As I mentioned last night, EU President Donald Tusk’s suggestion of a Brexit delay of a year or so seems to have been torn up - notably by France’s president Emmanuel Macron.
I was told by those involved in preparations for the emergency Brexit summit on Wednesday that the most likely outcome of the special summit is another kicking of the Brexit can down the road, but only till a bit after the elections for the European Parliament at the end of May.
The big problem with a long delay, for France and its President in particular, was that it would give the UK too much power - in their view - to vandalise the EU till EU leaders felt cowed into tearing up the Northern Ireland backstop (hated by Tory Brexiters and DUP).
EU leaders trust Theresa May to abide by the convention that all EU members, including Brexiting ones, should engage with each other in a spirit of “sincere cooperation” - but do not trust she will be PM much longer.
And they have little faith that a successor such as Johnson or Raab would not blow up their budget preparations, for example.
The widely mooted option of trying to strip the UK of voting rights during an extension is hard. Far easier to keep the postponement as short as possible.
What this means is that if the delay is agreed on Wednesday, the new Brexit day would probably be some time in June or July.
And for the first time it would probably be a genuine deadline, according to sources.
Some in the EU see it as that momentous date I have been presaging for months - a delayed date for a no-deal Brexit.
But no-deal would not be inevitable, even if it is close to impossible to see how a version of the prime minister’s deal could ever be approved by MPs.
There will always be the scope to delay Brexit by holding a referendum or even a general election. And the option of revoking Brexit will always be there.
The priority of the emergency EU council, according to a well-place official from a European capital, is “to keep responsibility [for what happens] in the UK”.
In the words of an intimate of those making historic decisions on both sides of the Channel: “It is the slow scenic route to a no-deal Brexit in late summer under a new PM.
As I mentioned last night, EU President Donald Tusk’s suggestion of a Brexit delay of a year or so seems to have been torn up - notably by France’s president Emmanuel Macron.
I was told by those involved in preparations for the emergency Brexit summit on Wednesday that the most likely outcome of the special summit is another kicking of the Brexit can down the road, but only till a bit after the elections for the European Parliament at the end of May.
The big problem with a long delay, for France and its President in particular, was that it would give the UK too much power - in their view - to vandalise the EU till EU leaders felt cowed into tearing up the Northern Ireland backstop (hated by Tory Brexiters and DUP).
EU leaders trust Theresa May to abide by the convention that all EU members, including Brexiting ones, should engage with each other in a spirit of “sincere cooperation” - but do not trust she will be PM much longer.
And they have little faith that a successor such as Johnson or Raab would not blow up their budget preparations, for example.
The widely mooted option of trying to strip the UK of voting rights during an extension is hard. Far easier to keep the postponement as short as possible.
What this means is that if the delay is agreed on Wednesday, the new Brexit day would probably be some time in June or July.
And for the first time it would probably be a genuine deadline, according to sources.
Some in the EU see it as that momentous date I have been presaging for months - a delayed date for a no-deal Brexit.
But no-deal would not be inevitable, even if it is close to impossible to see how a version of the prime minister’s deal could ever be approved by MPs.
There will always be the scope to delay Brexit by holding a referendum or even a general election. And the option of revoking Brexit will always be there.
The priority of the emergency EU council, according to a well-place official from a European capital, is “to keep responsibility [for what happens] in the UK”.
In the words of an intimate of those making historic decisions on both sides of the Channel: “It is the slow scenic route to a no-deal Brexit in late summer under a new PM.
As I mentioned last night, EU President Donald Tusk’s suggestion of a Brexit delay of a year or so seems to have been torn up - notably by France’s president Emmanuel Macron.
I was told by those involved in preparations for the emergency Brexit summit on Wednesday that the most likely outcome of the special summit is another kicking of the Brexit can down the road, but only till a bit after the elections for the European Parliament at the end of May.
The big problem with a long delay, for France and its President in particular, was that it would give the UK too much power - in their view - to vandalise the EU till EU leaders felt cowed into tearing up the Northern Ireland backstop (hated by Tory Brexiters and DUP).
EU leaders trust Theresa May to abide by the convention that all EU members, including Brexiting ones, should engage with each other in a spirit of “sincere cooperation” - but do not trust she will be PM much longer.
And they have little faith that a successor such as Johnson or Raab would not blow up their budget preparations, for example.
The widely mooted option of trying to strip the UK of voting rights during an extension is hard. Far easier to keep the postponement as short as possible.
What this means is that if the delay is agreed on Wednesday, the new Brexit day would probably be some time in June or July.
And for the first time it would probably be a genuine deadline, according to sources.
Some in the EU see it as that momentous date I have been presaging for months - a delayed date for a no-deal Brexit.
But no-deal would not be inevitable, even if it is close to impossible to see how a version of the prime minister’s deal could ever be approved by MPs.
There will always be the scope to delay Brexit by holding a referendum or even a general election. And the option of revoking Brexit will always be there.
The priority of the emergency EU council, according to a well-place official from a European capital, is “to keep responsibility [for what happens] in the UK”.
In the words of an intimate of those making historic decisions on both sides of the Channel: “It is the slow scenic route to a no-deal Brexit in late summer under a new PM.
As I mentioned last night, EU President Donald Tusk’s suggestion of a Brexit delay of a year or so seems to have been torn up - notably by France’s president Emmanuel Macron.
I was told by those involved in preparations for the emergency Brexit summit on Wednesday that the most likely outcome of the special summit is another kicking of the Brexit can down the road, but only till a bit after the elections for the European Parliament at the end of May.
The big problem with a long delay, for France and its President in particular, was that it would give the UK too much power - in their view - to vandalise the EU till EU leaders felt cowed into tearing up the Northern Ireland backstop (hated by Tory Brexiters and DUP).
EU leaders trust Theresa May to abide by the convention that all EU members, including Brexiting ones, should engage with each other in a spirit of “sincere cooperation” - but do not trust she will be PM much longer.
And they have little faith that a successor such as Johnson or Raab would not blow up their budget preparations, for example.
The widely mooted option of trying to strip the UK of voting rights during an extension is hard. Far easier to keep the postponement as short as possible.
What this means is that if the delay is agreed on Wednesday, the new Brexit day would probably be some time in June or July.
And for the first time it would probably be a genuine deadline, according to sources.
Some in the EU see it as that momentous date I have been presaging for months - a delayed date for a no-deal Brexit.
But no-deal would not be inevitable, even if it is close to impossible to see how a version of the prime minister’s deal could ever be approved by MPs.
There will always be the scope to delay Brexit by holding a referendum or even a general election. And the option of revoking Brexit will always be there.
The priority of the emergency EU council, according to a well-place official from a European capital, is “to keep responsibility [for what happens] in the UK”.
In the words of an intimate of those making historic decisions on both sides of the Channel: “It is the slow scenic route to a no-deal Brexit in late summer under a new PM.
As I mentioned last night, EU President Donald Tusk’s suggestion of a Brexit delay of a year or so seems to have been torn up - notably by France’s president Emmanuel Macron.
I was told by those involved in preparations for the emergency Brexit summit on Wednesday that the most likely outcome of the special summit is another kicking of the Brexit can down the road, but only till a bit after the elections for the European Parliament at the end of May.
The big problem with a long delay, for France and its President in particular, was that it would give the UK too much power - in their view - to vandalise the EU till EU leaders felt cowed into tearing up the Northern Ireland backstop (hated by Tory Brexiters and DUP).
EU leaders trust Theresa May to abide by the convention that all EU members, including Brexiting ones, should engage with each other in a spirit of “sincere cooperation” - but do not trust she will be PM much longer.
And they have little faith that a successor such as Johnson or Raab would not blow up their budget preparations, for example.
The widely mooted option of trying to strip the UK of voting rights during an extension is hard. Far easier to keep the postponement as short as possible.
What this means is that if the delay is agreed on Wednesday, the new Brexit day would probably be some time in June or July.
And for the first time it would probably be a genuine deadline, according to sources.
Some in the EU see it as that momentous date I have been presaging for months - a delayed date for a no-deal Brexit.
But no-deal would not be inevitable, even if it is close to impossible to see how a version of the prime minister’s deal could ever be approved by MPs.
There will always be the scope to delay Brexit by holding a referendum or even a general election. And the option of revoking Brexit will always be there.
The priority of the emergency EU council, according to a well-place official from a European capital, is “to keep responsibility [for what happens] in the UK”.
In the words of an intimate of those making historic decisions on both sides of the Channel: “It is the slow scenic route to a no-deal Brexit in late summer under a new PM.
As I mentioned last night, EU President Donald Tusk’s suggestion of a Brexit delay of a year or so seems to have been torn up - notably by France’s president Emmanuel Macron.
I was told by those involved in preparations for the emergency Brexit summit on Wednesday that the most likely outcome of the special summit is another kicking of the Brexit can down the road, but only till a bit after the elections for the European Parliament at the end of May.
The big problem with a long delay, for France and its President in particular, was that it would give the UK too much power - in their view - to vandalise the EU till EU leaders felt cowed into tearing up the Northern Ireland backstop (hated by Tory Brexiters and DUP).
EU leaders trust Theresa May to abide by the convention that all EU members, including Brexiting ones, should engage with each other in a spirit of “sincere cooperation” - but do not trust she will be PM much longer.
And they have little faith that a successor such as Johnson or Raab would not blow up their budget preparations, for example.
The widely mooted option of trying to strip the UK of voting rights during an extension is hard. Far easier to keep the postponement as short as possible.
What this means is that if the delay is agreed on Wednesday, the new Brexit day would probably be some time in June or July.
And for the first time it would probably be a genuine deadline, according to sources.
Some in the EU see it as that momentous date I have been presaging for months - a delayed date for a no-deal Brexit.
But no-deal would not be inevitable, even if it is close to impossible to see how a version of the prime minister’s deal could ever be approved by MPs.
There will always be the scope to delay Brexit by holding a referendum or even a general election. And the option of revoking Brexit will always be there.
The priority of the emergency EU council, according to a well-place official from a European capital, is “to keep responsibility [for what happens] in the UK”.
In the words of an intimate of those making historic decisions on both sides of the Channel: “It is the slow scenic route to a no-deal Brexit in late summer under a new PM.
As I mentioned last night, EU President Donald Tusk’s suggestion of a Brexit delay of a year or so seems to have been torn up - notably by France’s president Emmanuel Macron.
I was told by those involved in preparations for the emergency Brexit summit on Wednesday that the most likely outcome of the special summit is another kicking of the Brexit can down the road, but only till a bit after the elections for the European Parliament at the end of May.
The big problem with a long delay, for France and its President in particular, was that it would give the UK too much power - in their view - to vandalise the EU till EU leaders felt cowed into tearing up the Northern Ireland backstop (hated by Tory Brexiters and DUP).
EU leaders trust Theresa May to abide by the convention that all EU members, including Brexiting ones, should engage with each other in a spirit of “sincere cooperation” - but do not trust she will be PM much longer.
And they have little faith that a successor such as Johnson or Raab would not blow up their budget preparations, for example.
The widely mooted option of trying to strip the UK of voting rights during an extension is hard. Far easier to keep the postponement as short as possible.
What this means is that if the delay is agreed on Wednesday, the new Brexit day would probably be some time in June or July.
And for the first time it would probably be a genuine deadline, according to sources.
Some in the EU see it as that momentous date I have been presaging for months - a delayed date for a no-deal Brexit.
But no-deal would not be inevitable, even if it is close to impossible to see how a version of the prime minister’s deal could ever be approved by MPs.
There will always be the scope to delay Brexit by holding a referendum or even a general election. And the option of revoking Brexit will always be there.
The priority of the emergency EU council, according to a well-place official from a European capital, is “to keep responsibility [for what happens] in the UK”.
In the words of an intimate of those making historic decisions on both sides of the Channel: “It is the slow scenic route to a no-deal Brexit in late summer under a new PM.
Comments
People answer these polls in front of family members, who may have very different views.
People lie to themselves. On all sides of the debate (not just leavers).
Genuinely don't see what could possibly be gained from doing one , if you feel that you will have to lie . Why not just decline to take part ? Also with this particular one nobody was asked how and why they voted , just to rank why they thought others voted .
A prominent supporter of Brexit has called for a “long pause” over quitting the European Union - and even suggested “rethinking the decision altogether”.
Peter Oborne, a respected writer and Daily Mail columnist, argues the country should take up European Council President Donald Tusk’s offer of a year’s delay as he contends Brexit has “paralysed the system”.
His position is driven by the economic impact of the “flood” of companies quitting the country, the possible break-up of the United Kingdom and the “deceit” of the Leave campaign.
Oborne also hits out at fellow Brexiteers for the “succession of claims about leaving the EU that have turned out to be untrue”.
“I argue, as a Brexiteer, that we need to take a long deep breath. We need to swallow our pride, and think again. Maybe it means rethinking the Brexit decision altogether,” he writes.
Author ofThe Rise of Political Lyingand ex-chief commentator at the Daily Telegraph, Oborne is noted as an independent thinker.
The high-profile Conservative raised eyebrows in 2014 and 2015 for repeatedly praising Ed Miliband as a “principled and courageous” politician, despite the then-Labour leader battling David Cameron for Number 10.
Oborne has frequently criticised Conservative government policy on the Middle East, particular around Saudi Arabia, but remained a passionate supporter of Brexit, often slamming the “hypocrisy” of EU leaders.
His apparent about-turn comes as Theresa May attempts to thrash out a compromise deal with Jeremy Corbyn, and will next week find out whether the remaining 27 EU countries will agree to a second extension to delay Brexit.
Without the delay or an agreement that can finally pass through parliament, the UK is set to leave the bloc on Friday without a deal.
In a piece for the Open Democracy website, Oborne writes that Brexit has “turned Britain into a laughing stock”.
He points to a series of companies that have made investment decisions following the referendum, including Nissan, Sony and Dyson, and expresses his sadness as “the trickle of companies announcing plans to leave Britain has turned into a flood”.
In a key line, he says: “If we are honest, we Brexiteers have to admit that the economic arguments for Brexit have been destroyed by a series of shattering blows.”
He also writes that Britain’s departure from the EU will be as “great a disaster for our country as the over-mighty unions were in the 1960s and 1970s”.
Arguing that investors and the hard left have been the most vocal in support of Brexit, he says: “When hedge-fund managers and the Communist Party see eye-to-eye on any question, it’s time to be concerned.”
He warns a “clumsily executed Brexit” will hit wages, jobs and public services and that there is “zero chance” of a “sensible Brexit” given the “pandemonium and hysteria at Westminster just now”.
Oborne thinks a Tory leadership contest, triggered after May announced she would stand down once a deal passes, adds to it being the “worse time to make the decision about how to leave Europe”.
He goes on to defend his position as a Brexiteer, arguing the EU is “not democratic”. He adds: “Part of me, therefore, still feels proud of Brexit. Well done Britain for challenging remote oligarchs based in Brussels.”
But he counters that the “bitter and angry debate” since has led him to conclude that “this is not just a simple problem of whether or not we are patriots”.
He says: “I readily accept that the European Union is a dysfunctional body beset by all manner of problems. But the lesson of the last two years is that we are much better off working inside the EU ... for reform and not as a hostile neighbour.”
He also fears that “like almost everybody else” the importance of the Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland has been “underestimated”: “We’ve all misunderstood the Irish question, even though it has loomed so large in our history for the last 500 years.”
After finally railing against the “false prospectus” offered by Brexiteers, he concludes the UK should “grab (Tusk’s) kindly offer of a year’s sabbatical”.
He adds: “Suspending Brexit will be greatly preferable to the alternative. How many important decisions in our own lives, too, have had to be taken on such a chilly and unexciting consideration? It’s time for a long pause.”
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/leading-brexiteer-peter-oborne-calls-213940300.html
What happened?
Tory Brexiteers have launched a bid to unseat Theresa May by Wednesday in a bid to force the UK to leave the EU without a deal on Friday. Rebel MP Mark Francois masterminded the plan, demanding a non-binding vote of confidence in Mrs May’s leadership. He said if MPs voted against Mrs May she would be placed under immense pressure to quit. As it stands, the UK is due to leave the EU on 12 April unless another extension is granted.
Will it work?
A successful vote of no confidence in Theresa May would not be legally binding, meaning the PM could chose to ignore it. While this would be highly unusual, Mrs May has so far weathered an extremely rocky premiership without caving to pressure to quit. The PM survived an official vote of no confidence in her leadership in December, meaning the process cannot be triggered for another year.
What does this mean for Brexit?
The latest in a long line of Brexiteer revolts, Mr Francois’ attempt to push Mrs May out of the door demonstrates the deep unease over her Brexit strategy. The PM has reached out to Labour in an attempt to come up with a plan to break the Brexit deadlock, which Eurosceptics fear will mean a move towards a soft Brexit. Mrs May suggested she might soften her red lines yesterday when she released a video saying that talks will mean ‘compromise on both sides’.
The EU will decide on Wednesday whether or not there has been enough progress in the talks to merit another short Brexit extension. If they say no, the UK will leave without a deal on Friday.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/catch-plot-oust-theresa-may-within-48-hours-161223808.html
The latest on Brexit features on many of Tuesday's newspaper front pages as Theresa May prepares to meet Germany and France's leaders for further Brexit talks.
A number of papers have pictures of the German Chancellor Angela Merkel holding a ball - a gift from the German Handball Federation - as she prepares to meet Mrs May today.
For the Sun, the ball is now in the EU's court as the leaders of the 27 other member states decide on the UK's request for a further delay to Brexit.
The price of the delay, the Times reports, will be an assurance from Britain that it will not block or disrupt EU decisions during an extension period.
The Guardian says the prime minister will promise to be a good member of the EU until departure day and tell them that talks with Labour have a serious chance of reaching a deal.
The Mail reports that following talks between the government and Labour, the two sides are said to be close to agreement on ensuring the UK remains in step with EU laws on workers' rights and the environment - but there is no agreement yet on possible customs arrangements.
The Telegraph says it can disclose that Mrs May is considering giving MPs a vote on whether to hold a further referendum in a bid to break the deadlock in negotiations with Labour.
According to the newspaper, she held discussions with Cabinet ministers yesterday about the prospect of a Commons vote on whether to enshrine a commitment to a referendum in law.
The Financial Times says Eurosceptic anger has mounted as both the government and Labour explore a compromise on a future EU customs arrangement.
According to the paper, the Leader of the House of Commons, Andrea Leadsom, was said by onlookers to have been "incandescent with anger" as she berated Mrs May for letting Jeremy Corbyn influence any Brexit outcome.
It adds that the reality of Mrs May's plan to seek another Brexit delay sank in last night when the Conservative Party rushed to find candidates to contest the European Parliament elections.
Meanwhile, the Telegraph also reports that Theresa May is facing demands to stand down immediately after senior Tory backbenchers told her that she was now "the problem".
The paper says officials from the 1922 Committee met the prime minister in Downing Street on Monday and warned her that the mood among party supporters had turned against her over the weekend.
Sources have told the paper that Mrs May "sat in stony silence and refused to discuss her future".
According to the Guardian, Tory MPs are submitting a fresh batch of letters expressing no confidence in Mrs May - even though, under party rules, they cannot challenge her until December.
But, the paper adds, they hope the number of letters will be so great that they can't be ignored.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-47861864
THE EUROSCEPTIC European Research Group remains in chaos after 28 MPs broke away from the group on Monday.
Yesterday evening, Daniel Kaczynski resigned claiming that the “hardcore element” of the party were jeopardising Brexit. The MP for Shrewsbury and Atcham is reportedly now part of a 28-strong group of former ERG MPs who have broken away from the main group due to their hardline Brexit stance, according to talkRADIO. The radio station reported: “The 28 remaining Tory Brexit rebels are meeting separately from the rest of the ERG.
They met at lunchtime today. Their WhatsApp group is called 'the real mainstream’.”
The ERG has been a constant thorn in the side of Theresa May and have voted against the Prime Minister’s deal despite Jacob Rees-Mogg admitting that he would back Mrs May in the most recent vote.
In a statement following his resignation, Mr Kaczynski said: “Have decided to resign from ERG.
“Despite excellent Chairmanship by Jacob Rees Mogg who has accommodated all views I can no longer be a member of the caucas which is preventing a Withdrawal Agreement from passing.
“Hardcore element of ‘Unicorn’ dreamers now actually endangering Brexit.”
The group holds a significant amount of influence in the Commons but with the split, it could provide Mrs May a lifeline in trying to get her deal through Parliament.
The ERG split comes as the House of Lords passed an amendment which required the Prime Minister to seek an extension to Article 50 in the aim of avoiding a no deal Brexit.
The Yvette Cooper bill aims now has become enshrined in law and requires Mrs May to seek an extension beyond April 12.
MPs also rejected an amendment which sought to stop Brexit being delayed beyond May 22.
Mrs May will request a Brexit delay until June 30 during an emergency EU summit on Wednesday.
The Prime Minister also spoke to Leo Varadkar, the Irish Prime Minister, on Monday to discuss her desire to extend Article 50.
Mr Varadkar expressed his openness to the idea of the of extending the withdrawal deadline.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1111622/Brexit-news-ERG-Jacob-Rees-Mogg-Theresa-May-Conservative-party-leave-eu-Leo-varadkar
THERESA MAY could gamble on Brexit ever happening by holding a free Commons vote on a second referendum, it has been revealed.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1111605/brexit-news-latest-brexit-second-referendum-theresa-may-commons-vote
If you don't want to watch the vid , he sums it up at the end quite succintly with where Labour are : customs union , market access, and protection of rights
We happy few can reright the course of history: a letter wot Mark Francois rote
Dear Sir Graham Brady Sir,
I am wrITing to you in a perSONal capacity as the aNGRiest member of parlyment. I am very very very AnGry with Theresa May. Or in her case, TheRESa Maybenot, if you Get my drift. It has come to my attenshun that when we had a no confidence vote last DeCember many of uz were not in possession of all the facts.
So it was not a truly deMCRratic vote like the 2016 referendum wuz. Back Then we knew everythink about wot we were doing and 17.4 million heroically voted to be poorer in a no deal Brexit so that GREAT!! Britain never never shall be slaves to the hated eU. So now we want anuvver go to get rid of the prime minister pleeze. Nothing less than the future of our beloved Country rests on you saying YES.
We are livining in a world GONe mad. One where idiots Like me get to go on TV loads and loads. So it’s not all bad. But sUM things are very very bad and there is nothing worse than a Conservative prime minister – Propped Up by a Ssinister Remainiaciacal caBBAL in the caBINet – trying to keep us locked into a dreaded CUSToms unION foreffer.
That wOUld mean under EU law I would never be able to change my name bak to Mark Frank. At least that’s what Andrew BridGIng told me and he knos everyFink. And hes my Frend so there. So THank God, who is ENGLISH through and THREw, for the unelected Lords for standing up against the democratically elected House of ComMUns and trying to keep No Deal on the table. Or TABle as the fRench call it.
And wot you Might Ask are all the so-called Brexiteers in the govenmint doing? I’ll tell you what they are DOing. Absolutely **** nothing. They are just sitting around on their Fat Arses eating pizza with prOSHooto topping. Typical. They can’t even order in a proper British Pizza with ham and pineapple. PatriotISMism is going to the dogs. So since the “OFFFicer Class” has let us down so badly, it’s left to the Poor **** Infantry to lead the fightback. Private MArc Francis of the UninteLLigents Corp reporting for DUTY sir, Sir Graham Brady Sir.
Which brings me on to my Next Point. It is an outrage to every normal red-FACed Englishman that the prime minister is actively CONSorting with a known Marxist. The loyal Spartins of the EUropean Reseach Group did not nobly vote down Theresa MayHEM’s – see what I did vere? – deal to take us out of the dreaded EU three times only for hur to cosy up with Jereyours CorBIN a man who has been on holiday to Cuba and eats more than his fair share of vegEATables in order to take us out of the dreaded EU.
And another FINg. That letter the prime minister Rote to the EU Council about the extenTION. Total **** liberty, if you’ll excuse my languidge, Mr Sir Graham Brady Sir. I’m just at the end of my tether. I reeLLY am. First she hopes to fool parlyment wiv a bill that is so long that most orDINErry MPs wont be able to read it proply. Then she only GOES and commits us to taking part in European elections that might even turn out to be a total waste of time as we MIte have left and lets hope they are as if THEres one thing worse than fighting European eleCTions it’s having MEPs. It’s a totul shambles.
I would also like to remind you I was once Junior Europe Monitor in the school cadet force. A TOUR of DUTY in which I was happy to serve with exTINction. What I learned dURing that time was the EU doesn’t like it up em. So it’s time for us to stop being such COWARDS. We need to tell Johnny Forriner where to get off and then he will cave in and tell us to sod off without a deal. sPeshully if we as a Conservtive party have given the prime minister the push on the wEndsday afternoon before she TAKES her begging bowl to Brussils.
The future of the WHOLE Country is now in the hands of just 313 Conservative MPs. If we get this Write, we happy few can reright the course of history and make our Country a failed state and the LAUGHING stock it deserves to be. But only you Sir, Sir Graham Brady Sir Sir, can make this Happen. So I am bEGGing you, begging you on my hands and Nees – no mean feet as I’m not sure if I’ll be able to get back up again – to rethink. In the nAME of God, give us a second vote. Democracy demands NO less.
Yours ever, Mark Francois. And you can shove the cedilla where the son dont shine.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/08/pleeze-sir-graham-brady-sir-can-we-have-anuvver-go-to-get-rid-of-the-prime-minister
The party within a party appear to have become two smaller parties within the Tory party.
I cannot think of anything that would give me more pleasure than the ERG going down in history as the blundering fools that lost Brexit.
Ok there are a few other things, like winning the lottery, perhaps.
They are already the blundering fools that screwed up unseating the PM, and the idiots that turn up on the telly to inform the public that they will never in a million years vote for the Withdrawal Agreement as a matter of principle, and that no deal was what all leavers voted for, only to abandon theses principles a week later, and vote for the WA.
Daniel Kawczynski has appeared on telly often singing the praises of the ERG, but not any more apparently. He has been in trouble over his alternative facts regarding the Marshall Plan,
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-47115960
and writing to the Polish Government to urge them to veto the Article 50 extension. Obviously "Taking Back Control" to him meant giving it to the Polish Government.
https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/politics/2019/01/24/calls-for-shrewsbury-mp-to-publish-brexit-letter-to-polish-government/
He also attracted criticism for berating a one legged wheel chair user for begging outside the Houses of Parliament, and had to pay back £4,000 during the expenses scandal. He was apparently guilty of persistently asking a young research assistant to go out on a date with a rich businessman contact of his, that was old enough to be her father. He is a strong supporter of the Saudi Government.
Mark Francois has probably been more prominent on our screens, looking fit to burst much of the time. If I owned the insurance company carrying his life insurance I would be concerned enough to attempt to offload it.
He recently gained publicity for an interview where he ripped up a letter written by Tom Enders the Airbus CEO, expressing Brexit concerns. He stated that his Dad was D Day veteran, he had served in the army, and planned to take no notice of a German when we won the war. After this outburst I imagined him to be a member of some crack squad like the SAS or SBS, or maybe a Royal Marine. Not so he was a part time member of the Territorial Army.
In another outburst he quoted Jesus, after the Yvette Cooper Bill got passed by one vote. It was concluded that he was a naughty boy rather than The Messiah.
In further meltdowns he vowed not to vote for the Brexit deal with a gun in his mouth, sent a fraternal message to the Chancellor live on radio which was "up yours", and was involved in a bit of a ridiculous stare-down on Politics Live with Will Self. He later claimed that the stare-down was caused by Self claiming, immediately prior to the show going on air, that he had a small ****. In the spirit of balance Francois stated that was not true, in fact he went further and suggested that the opposite was true.
Last but not least Jacob Rees-Mogg, If I had to comment on all the lies and half truths he spouted forth about Brexit, I would miss the main event tonight. he is deserving of my utter contempt.
He is the leader of the blundering fools. He is their Captain Mainwaring. His latest escapade, ignoring the democracy that he values so much, in an attempt to threaten the EU about the repercussions of elected British MEPs disrupting the workings of the EU, in the hope that the EU will refuse an extension, and leave us with no option other than the catastrophe which is no deal.
How could this be considered democratic, when Parliament have voted against no deal a number of times, and in favour of an extension.
He must think the EU are stupid, they are not, and will take steps to counteract his plan.
Incredible shift in immigration attitudes in IpsosMORI trend surveys: 64% were negative about immigration in 2011, now down to 26%. We were among most negative countries, now among most positive. – Bobby Duffy on Twitter
https://www.markpack.org.uk/157807/public-opinion-immigration-shift/
Just under half (44%) say that migration has had a positive impact on Britain according to a new Ipsos MORI survey among British adults aged 18-75. Three in ten (30%) say migration’s impact has been negative on the country while one in five (20%) say its impact has been neutral. These findings are consistent with previous research by Ipsos MORI which found the British public’s attitudes towards migration have become more positive since the referendum.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/attitudes-immigration-have-softened-referendum-most-still-want-see-it-reduced
As we wait for the EU to decide on a Brexit delay, the national mood has turned poisonous
The mood has turned nastier since I first visited the Big Help Project food bank in Knowsley, Merseyside, two years ago. Back then, the Brexit poison hadn’t seeped so deep. But now, when the call goes out for food donations to feed its 10,000 clients, things have changed, says Peter Mitchell, the project leader. “I get people asking, ‘Is this food for British people?’ I never used to hear that, never. It’s hideous, it makes my blood boil.”
How does he reply? “I say this food is for hungry people.” He sighs heavily. “Brexit did this. It gives permission to copy Farage and Trump, to say things they never used to say.” He points to the rising racism in football, with a coconut thrown at a black player over the weekend. “It makes you despair. Brexit is doing this to us”.
Knowsley, which is among the UK’s poorest constituencies, is one of the hardest hit, with half of its council budget cut. The project’s 10 food banks are “thriving”: Mitchell observes the irony. This social enterprise now provides debt advice, a credit union, food and furniture shops, moses baskets of baby things for new mothers and a housing co-op. With 125 volunteers playing their part, this feels like a beleaguered community at its best in the face of terrible adversity. But Mitchell, a Liverpool councillor, despairs of new attitudes in the wake of Brexit. “I see society changing before my eyes, empowering the worst. This is the end product of Thatcher’s 1980s, where individualism has won out over collectivism: it’s all me and mine; a selfishness that comes from that idea that the private is better than the public. Politically? Apathy reigns.”
Mitchell tried to rouse people to protest against the bedroom tax, but only 300 turned up. “People have given up, turned in on themselves in their own homes.” Austerity has twined itself around Brexit like bindweed, causing hardship, embittering its victims.
Once, the pied pipers of Brexit played tunes of hope and optimism with fantasies of buccaneering freedom, but none of that is left; not in Westminster or anywhere else. The fairy dust blew away, and now all that’s left is the dark, backward-looking nativism that underpinned it. Disappointment at the vanished new dawn has turned the remnants of the Brexit creed into angry, determined calls to just “do it”, never mind the dire consequences. The much-mocked Project Fear Treasury forecasts are already proving correct: they warned a Brexit vote would mean households losing out by £4,300 by 2030. Households are already £1,500 worse off, and becoming poorer faster than forecast, in the worst era for growth since the 1860s, according to Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Now the Osborne-Hammond screw has tightened again as the benefits freeze continues into a new fiscal year. The poor already lose an average of £340 annually, which is two months’ food shopping for an average low-income family, according to the Joseph Rowntree Foundation. By this time next year, there will be 400,000 more poor children as a result, with food banks busier than ever.
Still, the cabinet minister, Andrea Leadsom, tells the BBC’s Andrew Marr that leaving on no deal would be “not nearly as grim” as some believe. But grim it is: this country on the verge of a nervous breakdown feels grimmer than I can ever remember, on both sides of the angry Brexit divide.
This week we hover in purgatory, not in control but at the mercy of the 27 EU leaders meeting on Wednesday to decide our fate: into the abyss, or the respite of a long and flexible Brexit extension. Until that is secured, Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn will go on making nice in an agreed charade to persuade the EU that delay could bring a cross-party pact. Let’s hope Europe chooses to believe it. The impasse is that half May’s cabinet and all her party’s grassroots will not tolerate the customs union Labour must have – call it something else, some suggest. But it’s either frictionless trade that forbids the UK striking outside deals, or it’s nothing. No verbal gymnast can pole-vault that one.
If Labour agrees on any deal without insisting voters get the final say, the party will be done for. The Change UK group fears a stitch-up where a sequence of votes allows MPs to vote yes to the customs union (they almost did already) but no to the public vote, allowing both parties to claim clean hands after a free vote with no one to blame. Both Tory and Labour members would be spitting, possibly to the point of splitting, but helpless to prevent it. However, I trust that Keir Starmer, Tom Watson, Emily Thornberry and others will guarantee Labour’s commitment: no deal without a vote. As Starmer said, the ball is in May’s court: can she ever bend?
Assuming the extension, if there’s no deal by 22 May, the EU elections will be a proxy referendum. That’s May’s best threat to terrify her deranged tendency, but both parties have much to fear. Prof Robert Ford, one of the sharpest political analysts, expects Nigel Farage’s new Brexit party to storm the barricades, dragging the Tories ever rightwards, further towards nationalism and xenophobia, further than ever from modernising. YouGov shows the Tories now only have a majority among over-51s, a moribund party.
Unless Labour campaigns as an undisputed remain party, it too will be trampled under the wheels of Change UK, the Greens and Lib Dems. A Corbyn campaign barn-storming the country with pro-EU passion stretches credulity, but equivocation and triangulation could see Labour votes haemorrhage to authentically pro-European parties, never to return.
Democracy is in a rotten state when you find the corridors of Westminster filled with MPs trembling with fright at the prospect of facing their voters. Mostly Tory, but also some Labour, MPs in leave seats fear any test in a general election, referendum or EU elections. But progressives should welcome any chance to set out the pro-European case fearlessly everywhere, to turn the tide on the dark thoughts in Knowsley.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/08/britain-eu-brexit
As I mentioned last night, EU President Donald Tusk’s suggestion of a Brexit delay of a year or so seems to have been torn up - notably by France’s president Emmanuel Macron.
I was told by those involved in preparations for the emergency Brexit summit on Wednesday that the most likely outcome of the special summit is another kicking of the Brexit can down the road, but only till a bit after the elections for the European Parliament at the end of May.
The big problem with a long delay, for France and its President in particular, was that it would give the UK too much power - in their view - to vandalise the EU till EU leaders felt cowed into tearing up the Northern Ireland backstop (hated by Tory Brexiters and DUP).
EU leaders trust Theresa May to abide by the convention that all EU members, including Brexiting ones, should engage with each other in a spirit of “sincere cooperation” - but do not trust she will be PM much longer.
And they have little faith that a successor such as Johnson or Raab would not blow up their budget preparations, for example.
The widely mooted option of trying to strip the UK of voting rights during an extension is hard. Far easier to keep the postponement as short as possible.
What this means is that if the delay is agreed on Wednesday, the new Brexit day would probably be some time in June or July.
And for the first time it would probably be a genuine deadline, according to sources.
Some in the EU see it as that momentous date I have been presaging for months - a delayed date for a no-deal Brexit.
But no-deal would not be inevitable, even if it is close to impossible to see how a version of the prime minister’s deal could ever be approved by MPs.
There will always be the scope to delay Brexit by holding a referendum or even a general election. And the option of revoking Brexit will always be there.
The priority of the emergency EU council, according to a well-place official from a European capital, is “to keep responsibility [for what happens] in the UK”.
In the words of an intimate of those making historic decisions on both sides of the Channel: “It is the slow scenic route to a no-deal Brexit in late summer under a new PM.
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-04-09/eu-to-offer-short-final-final-brexit-delay/