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Brexit

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    madprofmadprof Member Posts: 3,315
    What happened to not insulting people ? Now who’s being obdurate
  • Options
    Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 162,069
    edited May 2019

    Oh well , if Billy Bragg posted a poll , it must be accurate . :D
    Seriously , where does this nonsense poll originate from ? how many people contributed ? when was it taken ? cross referencing ? ...etc etc
    More remainer nonsense .

    Billy Bragg Re-Tweeted it. The original Tweet was by Mike Smithson PB, who describes himself as;

    "Election analyst and gambler who's been running his award winning blog since 2004"

    Here's his Wiki page;

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Smithson_(British_journalist)

    Here's his Blog;

    http://www.politicalbetting.com/


    His Tweet is here;



    It is based on a Poll was by ComRes, these people;

    https://www.comresglobal.com/


    Here's their Wiki page;

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ComRes


    ComRes said of this Poll;


    The poll was conducted between ComRes surveyed 2,018 GB adults online between 5th – 7th April 2019. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults by age, gender, region and social grade as well as 2017 General Election and 2016 EU Referendum past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

    The Poll was commissioned by The Daily Telegraph.

    Here's the full Poll & range of questions & responses;


    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/The-Telegraph-Brexit-and-VI-April-2019.pdf


    I have no idea if it is accurate or not, though by most measures it looks to me to be reasonably constructed. I'm not in a position to challenge any of it's findings, & I have no beef with those who prefer to ignore or discard it's findings.

    It just seems a useful piece of data to add to the debate.



  • Options
    Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 162,069
    lucy4 said:

    Tikay10 said:

    For balance, it's not easy for the Government when the public are so divided. The obduracy of the various Opposition parties has not helped. When will they realise that we and they all have to compromise? There's simply no answer that is acceptable to a reasonable majority.

    Billy Bragg just posted this on Twitter, which is extraordinary & shows how difficult all this is;

    image

    I think that the only thing this poll confirms is that Theresa May's deal is a **** deal.
    Possibly, but it depends where you stand - by definition, EVERY deal is a "**** deal"* to many of us, as we are all so divided.

    * I don't actually know what "****" stands for, but I'm a-guessing it's not complimentary. ;)
  • Options
    lucy4lucy4 Member Posts: 7,188
    Regarding Polls - I'm not sure but didn't the last polls get it completely wrong regarding, American President,Brexit result and before that the Election results...
  • Options
    Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 162,069
    edited May 2019
    lucy4 said:

    Regarding Polls - I'm not sure but didn't the last polls get it completely wrong regarding, American President,Brexit result and before that the Election results...

    Yes, they very often do, but there are such a range of Polls these days that some are bound to get it wrong, & others bound to get it right, a the results vary so.

    Their Polls reflect what those who were Polled thought, & as we all think so different in this matter, we can't take any Polls at face value. Most of them are indicative though.

    Does not mean we should necessarily ignore them though, any more than we must believe them. They are just grist to the mill.

    It's an unbelievably complex matter, & I suppose there's no real right or wrong. It's all opinions, isn't it?
  • Options
    HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 32,921
    Tikay10 said:

    Oh well , if Billy Bragg posted a poll , it must be accurate . :D
    Seriously , where does this nonsense poll originate from ? how many people contributed ? when was it taken ? cross referencing ? ...etc etc
    More remainer nonsense .

    Billy Bragg Re-Tweeted it. The original Tweet was by Mike Smithson PB, who describes himself as;

    "Election analyst and gambler who's been running his award winning blog since 2004"

    Here's his Wiki page;

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Smithson_(British_journalist)

    Here's his Blog;

    http://www.politicalbetting.com/


    His Tweet is here;



    It is based on a Poll was by ComRes, these people;

    https://www.comresglobal.com/


    Here's their Wiki page;

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ComRes


    ComRes said of this Poll;


    The poll was conducted between ComRes surveyed 2,018 GB adults online between 5th – 7th April 2019. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults by age, gender, region and social grade as well as 2017 General Election and 2016 EU Referendum past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

    The Poll was commissioned by The Daily Telegraph.

    Here's the full Poll & range of questions & responses;


    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/The-Telegraph-Brexit-and-VI-April-2019.pdf


    I have no idea if it is accurate or not, though by most measures it looks to me to be reasonably constructed. I'm not in a position to challenge any of it's findings, & I have no beef with those who prefer to ignore or discard it's findings.

    It just seems a useful piece of data to add to the debate.



    Pots and kettles spring to mind as she has posted a ComRes poll on the other thread, the result of that is more to her liking.


    The ComRes survey of voting intentions put Brexit on 21 per cent to the Conservatives' 20, which would see Farage's team win 49 seats, becoming the UK's second biggest party after Labour, with 137
    Andrew Hawkins, the chairman of ComRes, described the poll as a 'disaster', adding: 'If the Conservative leadership contenders are not careful, there will be no party for them to lead.'
  • Options
    HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 32,921
    lucy4 said:

    Regarding Polls - I'm not sure but didn't the last polls get it completely wrong regarding, American President,Brexit result and before that the Election results...

    The internet polls for the referendum were extremely accurate.

  • Options
    lucy4lucy4 Member Posts: 7,188
    edited May 2019
    HAYSIE said:

    lucy4 said:

    Regarding Polls - I'm not sure but didn't the last polls get it completely wrong regarding, American President,Brexit result and before that the Election results...

    The internet polls for the referendum were extremely accurate.

    So then why not implement the results.
  • Options
    dobiesdrawdobiesdraw Member Posts: 2,793
    madprof said:

    What happened to not insulting people ? Now who’s being obdurate

    Knew you couldn't go a whole week without finding something of mine to jump on . Very sad !
  • Options
    dobiesdrawdobiesdraw Member Posts: 2,793
    edited May 2019
    HAYSIE said:

    Tikay10 said:

    Oh well , if Billy Bragg posted a poll , it must be accurate . :D
    Seriously , where does this nonsense poll originate from ? how many people contributed ? when was it taken ? cross referencing ? ...etc etc
    More remainer nonsense .

    Billy Bragg Re-Tweeted it. The original Tweet was by Mike Smithson PB, who describes himself as;

    "Election analyst and gambler who's been running his award winning blog since 2004"

    Here's his Wiki page;

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Smithson_(British_journalist)

    Here's his Blog;

    http://www.politicalbetting.com/


    His Tweet is here;



    It is based on a Poll was by ComRes, these people;

    https://www.comresglobal.com/


    Here's their Wiki page;

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ComRes


    ComRes said of this Poll;


    The poll was conducted between ComRes surveyed 2,018 GB adults online between 5th – 7th April 2019. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults by age, gender, region and social grade as well as 2017 General Election and 2016 EU Referendum past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

    The Poll was commissioned by The Daily Telegraph.

    Here's the full Poll & range of questions & responses;


    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/The-Telegraph-Brexit-and-VI-April-2019.pdf


    I have no idea if it is accurate or not, though by most measures it looks to me to be reasonably constructed. I'm not in a position to challenge any of it's findings, & I have no beef with those who prefer to ignore or discard it's findings.

    It just seems a useful piece of data to add to the debate.



    Pots and kettles spring to mind as she has posted a ComRes poll on the other thread, the result of that is more to her liking.


    The ComRes survey of voting intentions put Brexit on 21 per cent to the Conservatives' 20, which would see Farage's team win 49 seats, becoming the UK's second biggest party after Labour, with 137
    Andrew Hawkins, the chairman of ComRes, described the poll as a 'disaster', adding: 'If the Conservative leadership contenders are not careful, there will be no party for them to lead.'
    There wouldn't be much point in quoting a poll that didn't support your views would there
    That said , doesn't mean you shouldn't take a large pinch of salt with any of them .
  • Options
    dobiesdrawdobiesdraw Member Posts: 2,793
    edited May 2019

    HAYSIE said:

    lucy4 said:

    Regarding Polls - I'm not sure but didn't the last polls get it completely wrong regarding, American President,Brexit result and before that the Election results...

    The internet polls for the referendum were extremely accurate.

    Really ? 63 percent of online polls predicted a leave result , I wouldn't call that extremely accurate .
  • Options
    HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 32,921



    HAYSIE said:

    lucy4 said:

    Regarding Polls - I'm not sure but didn't the last polls get it completely wrong regarding, American President,Brexit result and before that the Election results...

    The internet polls for the referendum were extremely accurate.

    Really ? 63 percent of online polls predicted a leave result , I wouldn't call that extremely accurate .

    Search




    The online polls were RIGHT, and other lessons from the referendum
    In:
    BrexitEuropeInternationalPolitics & current affairs
    June 28, 2016, 1:28 p.m.

    Freddie Sayers
    Editor-in-Chief of YouGov
    Only polls conducted online correctly foretold that Brexit was a real possibility, and five other things we learned about opinion polling from the EU Referendum
    THE ONLINE POLLS WERE RIGHT (even though our last one wasn't)
    The online polls in this referendum, of which more than half were by YouGov, were the only piece of information informing the world of the correct risk of a Brexit throughout the campaign. The online polls showed the race very close, bouncing within the margin of error either side of 50/50, with a slight advantage for the Leave campaign. Unfortunately not enough attention was paid to this evidence, and the media, campaigns, betting and financial markets continued to presume that Brexit would not happen, despite warnings from YouGov again and again and again and again that this confidence was misplaced.

    Three days before the vote, YouGov showed a two point lead for Leave. It was barely reported and didn’t move the markets. A subsequent eve of voting poll showed too close to call (51-49 Remain) and, unfortunately, our final on-the-day recontact study moved an additional percentage point in the wrong direction to 48/52 in favour of Remain. When this was announced on Sky News at 10pm, this time it was reported across the world as a confident prediction of a Remain victory. In reality small movements like this between different snapshot polls are an expected part of the process (we publish a margin of error of 3% on most polls, which we encourage media to make reference to), but overall our data showed the very close race that was eventually revealed.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/28/online-polls-were-right
  • Options
    HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 32,921










    As shadow Brexit secretary Sir Keir Starmer tells the Guardian that up to 150 Labour MPs would reject any cross-party Brexit deal that fails to promise a referendum, the Times says Theresa May is under pressure from cabinet ministers to scrap the negotiations altogether.
    It says those who previously supported the talks are losing faith.
    According to the paper, Chancellor Philip Hammond is understood to have told colleagues that, while "amiable", the negotiations are being held on the "false premise" that a politically acceptable deal could ever be struck.
    Instead - the paper adds - ministers want to try to find a compromise by allowing MPs to vote on different Brexit options.



    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-48249317
  • Options
    HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 32,921
    Keir Starmer: Brexit deal unlikely to pass without confirmatory poll
    Exclusive: shadow Brexit secretary also warns Labour risks losing its remain voters



    Keir Starmer has expressed doubts that any cross-party Brexit deal lacking a confirmatory referendum could pass parliament, warning up to 150 Labour MPs would reject an agreement that did not include one.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/12/keir-starmer-brexit-deal-unlikely-pass-without-confirmatory-referendum-interview
  • Options
    HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 32,921
    Related video: Tom Watson says it is right for the public to have another say on Brexit
    Brexit: Labour's old leader would have backed a second referendum, Tom Watson tells Corbyn
    Deputy Labour leader hits out at ‘wrong-headed’ left-wing critics of the EU as he insists former party leader John Smith would have backed fresh public vote




    Tom Watson has launched a fresh bid to convince Jeremy Corbyn to back another Brexit referendum by claiming that former party leader John Smith would have understood the need for a Final Say vote.
    In a speech on Monday, the party’s deputy leader will admit that Labour supporters are “not happy” with its current Brexit policy and make an impassioned plea to them not to abandon the party in European parliament elections later this month.

    In comments that will be widely interpreted as on attack on Mr Corbyn, he will hit out at left-wing critics of the EU and say that they are just as “wrong-headed” as right-wing Eurosceptics.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-news-latest-labour-second-referendum-jeremy-corbyn-tom-watson-a8910711.html
  • Options
    dobiesdrawdobiesdraw Member Posts: 2,793
    edited May 2019





    The online polls were RIGHT, and other lessons from the referendum
    In:
    BrexitEuropeInternationalPolitics & current affairs
    June 28, 2016, 1:28 p.m.

    Freddie Sayers
    Editor-in-Chief of YouGov
    Only polls conducted online correctly foretold that Brexit was a real possibility, and five other things we learned about opinion polling from the EU Referendum
    THE ONLINE POLLS WERE RIGHT (even though our last one wasn't)
    The online polls in this referendum, of which more than half were by YouGov, were the only piece of information informing the world of the correct risk of a Brexit throughout the campaign. The online polls showed the race very close, bouncing within the margin of error either side of 50/50, with a slight advantage for the Leave campaign. Unfortunately not enough attention was paid to this evidence, and the media, campaigns, betting and financial markets continued to presume that Brexit would not happen, despite warnings from YouGov again and again and again and again that this confidence was misplaced.

    Three days before the vote, YouGov showed a two point lead for Leave. It was barely reported and didn’t move the markets. A subsequent eve of voting poll showed too close to call (51-49 Remain) and, unfortunately, our final on-the-day recontact study moved an additional percentage point in the wrong direction to 48/52 in favour of Remain. When this was announced on Sky News at 10pm, this time it was reported across the world as a confident prediction of a Remain victory. In reality small movements like this between different snapshot polls are an expected part of the process (we publish a margin of error of 3% on most polls, which we encourage media to make reference to), but overall our data showed the very close race that was eventually revealed.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/28/online-polls-were-right
    HAYSIE said:

    lucy4 said:

    Regarding Polls - I'm not sure but didn't the last polls get it completely wrong regarding, American President,Brexit result and before that the Election results...

    The internet polls for the referendum were extremely accurate.

    According to the Guardian ...Out of 168 polls just 55 of them predicted leave . And 16 of the 168 predicted a 52 - 48 split in favour of leave . Not my idea of extremely accurate . Of course if you ask yougov if they think their polling is accurate , they're not likely to say no .
  • Options
    HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 32,921

    HAYSIE said:



    HAYSIE said:

    lucy4 said:

    Regarding Polls - I'm not sure but didn't the last polls get it completely wrong regarding, American President,Brexit result and before that the Election results...

    The internet polls for the referendum were extremely accurate.

    Really ? 63 percent of online polls predicted a leave result , I wouldn't call that extremely accurate .
    Search




    The online polls were RIGHT, and other lessons from the referendum
    In:
    BrexitEuropeInternationalPolitics & current affairs
    June 28, 2016, 1:28 p.m.

    Freddie Sayers
    Editor-in-Chief of YouGov
    Only polls conducted online correctly foretold that Brexit was a real possibility, and five other things we learned about opinion polling from the EU Referendum
    THE ONLINE POLLS WERE RIGHT (even though our last one wasn't)
    The online polls in this referendum, of which more than half were by YouGov, were the only piece of information informing the world of the correct risk of a Brexit throughout the campaign. The online polls showed the race very close, bouncing within the margin of error either side of 50/50, with a slight advantage for the Leave campaign. Unfortunately not enough attention was paid to this evidence, and the media, campaigns, betting and financial markets continued to presume that Brexit would not happen, despite warnings from YouGov again and again and again and again that this confidence was misplaced.

    Three days before the vote, YouGov showed a two point lead for Leave. It was barely reported and didn’t move the markets. A subsequent eve of voting poll showed too close to call (51-49 Remain) and, unfortunately, our final on-the-day recontact study moved an additional percentage point in the wrong direction to 48/52 in favour of Remain. When this was announced on Sky News at 10pm, this time it was reported across the world as a confident prediction of a Remain victory. In reality small movements like this between different snapshot polls are an expected part of the process (we publish a margin of error of 3% on most polls, which we encourage media to make reference to), but overall our data showed the very close race that was eventually revealed.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/28/online-polls-were-right
    HAYSIE said:

    lucy4 said:

    Regarding Polls - I'm not sure but didn't the last polls get it completely wrong regarding, American President,Brexit result and before that the Election results...

    The internet polls for the referendum were extremely accurate.

    According to the Guardian ...Out of 168 polls just 55 of them predicted leave . And 16 of the 168 predicted a 52 - 48 split in favour of leave . Not my idea of extremely accurate . Of course if you ask yougov if they think their polling is accurate , they're not likely to say no .

    There was a huge difference between the accuracy of online polling compared to other methods as stated in the YouGov article.

    Also YouGov expect a 3% margin of error in most polls.

    Most people would expect a poll to give an idea of popularity, rather than the exact number of votes that are likely to be cast in any particular direction.


    I have always found that reading articles, before criticising them, helps.

    So what happened to this is the last bit of airtime etc etc...……………………?
  • Options
    HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 32,921
    lucy4 said:

    Tikay10 said:

    For balance, it's not easy for the Government when the public are so divided. The obduracy of the various Opposition parties has not helped. When will they realise that we and they all have to compromise? There's simply no answer that is acceptable to a reasonable majority.

    Billy Bragg just posted this on Twitter, which is extraordinary & shows how difficult all this is;

    image

    I think that the only thing this poll confirms is that Theresa May's deal is a **** deal.
    I think that it shows that whatever you think of the Governments handling of the negotiations, there is no clear support for any solution.
  • Options
    HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 32,921

    Oh well , if Billy Bragg posted a poll , it must be accurate . :D
    Seriously , where does this nonsense poll originate from ? how many people contributed ? when was it taken ? cross referencing ? ...etc etc
    More remainer nonsense .
    And as an aside , using words that most people have never heard of like " obduracy " doesn't add to the validity of a post in the slightest .

    Congratulations, this is the most rude, arrogant, and uncalled for post in my recent memory.

    Probably since the last time you did it.

    It strikes me as hilarious that you are using the same source for posts you have made on another thread.

    To describe a poll as nonsense without knowing the source, is obviously silly.

    Are you somehow setting yourself up as some sort of polling expert?

    If so maybe you could share your credentials with the rest of us?

    How could you describe a poll regarding all the possible Brexit outcomes as Remainer nonsense?

    Billy Bragg is a Labour Party member, yet none of the results seem biased towards Labour?

    Do you think that criticising the vocabulary used by someone else is at all relevant?

    If so why?

    I haven't got a clue of who you think you are, but I am certain that your view does not coincide with the view that others have of you.

    I don't really wish to know the answers to these questions, and was quite happy at the thought that you had given me you last bit of airtime.

    You may wish to bear that in mind.

  • Options
    dobiesdrawdobiesdraw Member Posts: 2,793
    edited May 2019
    HAYSIE said:

    Oh well , if Billy Bragg posted a poll , it must be accurate . :D
    Seriously , where does this nonsense poll originate from ? how many people contributed ? when was it taken ? cross referencing ? ...etc etc
    More remainer nonsense .
    And as an aside , using words that most people have never heard of like " obduracy " doesn't add to the validity of a post in the slightest .

    Congratulations, this is the most rude, arrogant, and uncalled for post in my recent memory.

    Probably since the last time you did it.

    It strikes me as hilarious that you are using the same source for posts you have made on another thread.

    To describe a poll as nonsense without knowing the source, is obviously silly.

    Are you somehow setting yourself up as some sort of polling expert?

    If so maybe you could share your credentials with the rest of us?

    How could you describe a poll regarding all the possible Brexit outcomes as Remainer nonsense?

    Billy Bragg is a Labour Party member, yet none of the results seem biased towards Labour?

    Do you think that criticising the vocabulary used by someone else is at all relevant?

    If so why?

    I haven't got a clue of who you think you are, but I am certain that your view does not coincide with the view that others have of you.

    I don't really wish to know the answers to these questions, and was quite happy at the thought that you had given me you last bit of airtime.

    You may wish to bear that in mind.

    Personally I think you have some nerve to to accuse anyone of being rude and arrogant , take a long hard look in the mirror and look at some of the hogwash you have typed on here over the months .
    You are patently spoiling for an argument this morning as your life is obv pretty empty , so more than happy to oblige .
    Incidentally , I'm quite sure Tikay doesn't need anyone to " protect " him , and nor did he ask anyone to . Furthermore , I'm quite sure that if as moderator he has any probs with anything anyone says , he will " moderate " it . Your input is not required !
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