There is undoubtedly a large majority in Parliament that wouldn't allow no deal to happen.
Therefore the solution surely has to be either to agree a deal, or have a second referendum.
There is definitely not a majority in favour of The PMs deal.
The most popular plan b is a Norway deal, but no majority. Norway means paying annual contributions, and Freedom of Movement.
Any deal that doesn't include The Customs Union, will have to include The Backstop.
There is not a majority that will vote for The Backstop.
Any deal that includes The Customs Union stops us striking free trade deals elsewhere.
The Labour Party is in favour of The Single Market, and The Customs Union.
Not many of these difficulties were forseen during the referendum campaign.
It is difficult to see any deal that could command a majority in Parliament. No deal cant happen.
A General Election solves nothing, it would just give a different Government the same problems.
Well 2nd referendum ,"remains " hold the vote this time , article 50 automaically gets revoked ....civil unrest ? or at the least swathes of the population feeling completely disenfranchised . May would have to do a complete u turn regards Norway , she's already categorically ruled it out . god knows what happens about the backstop .
These difficulties should have been forseen by the politicians and presented to the population before offering up a referendum . ( stating the obvious , I concede) ...but if they were incapable of seeing what the possibilities were, then how the **** can we trust any of them to implement the exit to our adavantage anyway ?
So we hold a second referendum and the Remainers win,will we then have the Brexiters demanding a third referendum as it's 1-1. Do we play the best of 3 or just go straight to rock,paper,scissors?
Whats disturbing is May thinks her plan is good for Britain so she's doing a "Thatcher" "The Lady is not for turning." think Trump has Mental Health issues ! She's due to join the Leaping Lords.
There is undoubtedly a large majority in Parliament that wouldn't allow no deal to happen.
Therefore the solution surely has to be either to agree a deal, or have a second referendum.
There is definitely not a majority in favour of The PMs deal.
The most popular plan b is a Norway deal, but no majority. Norway means paying annual contributions, and Freedom of Movement.
Any deal that doesn't include The Customs Union, will have to include The Backstop.
There is not a majority that will vote for The Backstop.
Any deal that includes The Customs Union stops us striking free trade deals elsewhere.
The Labour Party is in favour of The Single Market, and The Customs Union.
Not many of these difficulties were forseen during the referendum campaign.
It is difficult to see any deal that could command a majority in Parliament. No deal cant happen.
A General Election solves nothing, it would just give a different Government the same problems.
Well 2nd referendum ,"remains " hold the vote this time , article 50 automaically gets revoked ....civil unrest ? or at the least swathes of the population feeling completely disenfranchised . May would have to do a complete u turn regards Norway , she's already categorically ruled it out . god knows what happens about the backstop .
These difficulties should have been forseen by the politicians and presented to the population before offering up a referendum . ( stating the obvious , I concede) ...but if they were incapable of seeing what the possibilities were, then how the **** can we trust any of them to implement the exit to our adavantage anyway ?
What has become apparent is that The Brexit that many people thought they voted for, or felt they were promised, is going to be impossible to achieve. It is not even so much about the deal, although the main objections to the details contained in the framework that the future negotiations will be based on, are any role played by The ECJ, and the fact that we will have to obey rules without a say in the making of them. As non members, how could we expect a say in the rules? Could we really expect The ECJ to play no role in our future relationship?
The Backstop will not get through Parliament
So it is not even about our future trading relationship, it is about some details, and The Backstop.
These details and The Backstop will apply to any deal. So just changing to Norway, or Canada, wouldn't help because the details wouldn't change and we would still need The Backstop.
So many factions are complaining, but have no solutions.
The DUP hate The Backstop, but what is their solution. Everyone understands why The EU insist on a border to protect the integrity of The Single Market.
Everyone understands why nobody wants a hard border on the island Ireland.
Therefore the solution can only be a border in the Irish Sea, or remaining in The Customs Union which would mean there would be no requirement for a border.
If you want trade deals elsewhere, then the border must go in The Irish sea,
If that is unacceptable, because it splits up the UK, then we cant leave.
The future trading relationship is far from cut and dried where for instance The PM says we are taking back our fishing rights, yet The French President is insistent that any future trade deal would include shared fishing rights. When these rights are discussed, our side always mentions Europeans fishing in our waters, but usually fail to mention our fishermen fishing in European waters.
Staying in The Customs Union means we cant strike trade deals elsewhere. If we cant strike trade deals elsewhere what is the point of leaving?
How could you move forward by saying we are not having a border in Ireland, or The Irish Sea, and we are not staying in The Customs Union?
Too many factions are saying we don't want this, we don't want that, but have no solutions. I think it fair to say that it is now obvious that our politicians didn't have a clue on how to disentangle ourselves from The EU after 45 years.
So we hold a second referendum and the Remainers win,will we then have the Brexiters demanding a third referendum as it's 1-1. Do we play the best of 3 or just go straight to rock,paper,scissors?
This process has been very divisive.
It has split families, friends and work colleagues.
These relationships will be difficult to repair, and a second referendum is unlikely to help with this.
The biggest problem we face is that we are due to leave The EU, at the end of March next year, come what may.
That means we leave with or without a deal.
The deal has to get voted through Parliament prior to us leaving.
Parliament has taken control and the majority has vowed not to allow us to leave without a deal.
It therefore seems increasingly likely that a second referendum is the most likely way out, even though this would do nothing to heal the divisions in our society.
Only a vote in favour of remaining would help.
If we voted again in favour of leaving, we would just be back to square one.
If we had a General Election we would be back to square one.
Parliament is deadlocked and the clock is ticking.
Brexit: What are the ‘four freedoms’ of the European Union?
What are the EU’s ‘four freedoms’? The ‘four freedoms’ of the European Union are the freedom of movement of goods, people, services and capital over borders. These key principles lie at the heart of the EU and underpin the single market, originally known as the common market. The freedoms, which are enshrined in EU treaties, aim to remove trade barriers and harmonise national rules at a EU level.
I suppose that the inability of Parliament to agree on anything, is reflective of the electorate. Therefore the best outcome may be for Parliament just to revoke Article 50, stay in the EU, and forget a second referendum.
That way we would not be blaming each other, and get over it in a shorter time frame. We would be forced to blame Parliament rather than a particular party.
This may suit all of the political parties, as if the public was able to blame one party, it would take them a long time to recover.
I find it really strange that it seems that neither the politicians nor the electorate in Northern Ireland, gave a thought to what may happen to the border. Despite The Good Friday Agreement, and the many years of horrendous troubles. What did they think would happen?
EU politicians dismiss ‘almost insane’ idea of renegotiating Brexit deal
European politicians have given a final strongly-worded warning to British MPs preparing to vote against the Brexit deal, with one branding the belief it could be renegotiated almost “insane.” Both Conservative and Labour MPs are coming in for harsh criticism on the continent for opposing the deal negotiated over the last 18 months. With opponents on both sides of the Commons, it’s widely expected the deal will be rejected next Tuesday by MPs motivated by the hope of a securing better terms. But suggestions of any renegotiations are being brutally dismissed on the EU side. “I found this idea of renegotiating the deal quite strange, not to say on the verge of being insane,” Swedish liberal MEP Jasenko Selimovic told Euronews.
Priti Patel: Use threats of food shortages to force Ireland to drop Brexit backstop
Downing Street should use the threat of food shortages in Ireland to pressure the country’s leaders to drop its demands for a Brexit “backstop” arrangement, a former Cabinet member has said. Ireland faces the prospect of taking a bigger economic hit than the UK should there be a disorderly withdrawal from the European Union. According to the documents, Ireland could see a 7 per cent drop in GDP under a no deal Brexit, whereas the UK would suffer a 5 per cent drop. Press it home The country also sees 80 per cent of its road freight from the EU pass through the UK, meaning any extra border checks “would cause challenges”. Perishable goods, such as food supplies, would be particularly badly affected, the papers state. Brexit in-depth: All the latest news, analysis and expert opinion The details have been seized on by arch-Brexiteers, who believe Theresa May should be using the warnings as leverage against the Irish to scrap its demands to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland. “This paper appears to show the government were well aware Ireland will face significant issues in a no-deal scenario,” Priti Patel, who was International Development Secretary until last year, told the Times.
There was a suggestion that The PM may instigate a second referendum.
Her policy of pitching the public, and sending The Cabinet out to sell her deal to the electorate, would suddenly make sense.
The ERG would be screwed. What could they campaign for?
It was thought that after she loses the meaningful vote in Parliament, instead of looking for a plan b, or taking the deal back for a second vote, she might go for a referendum. Or alternatively delay the vote in Parliament, and go straight for a referendum.
Delaying the vote may be seen as a better tactic, and preferable to going to the people with a deal that had already been overwhelmingly rejected by The House of Commons.
The options being to vote for remaining, or her deal.
The logic of this is understandable.
Her failure to find a plan b, that could gain a majority in Parliament, will probably lead to her downfall at some point, and continued chaos.
However if this worked, she may retain power, keep Mr Corbyn out of Downing St, knock Brexit on the head, and get on to more important stuff.
Article 50 would have to be extended, but that wouldn't be a problem.
A referendum would apparently take 9 months to a year to organise, and therefore plenty of time for a campaign.
If the majority voted remain it would be all over and done with.
If her deal won, then negotiations would continue, but probably not figure in the news every day.
The fact that the politicians wouldn't be able to pull the wool so much this time would be a huge plus.
There seems to be a growing tide of opinion supporting a second referendum, as the only way out of the mess.
May warned she could be forced out if she pursues rejected Brexit deal
Theresa May could be forced to stand down as prime minister if her Brexit deal is defeated in the Commons next week, a Tory former leader has warned. Eurosceptic Iain Duncan Smith cautioned against May and her cabinet deciding to “brazen it out”, saying such an approach would be a “disaster”
MPs hatch cross-party alliance to dump Theresa May
MPs are lining up to sack Theresa May if her Brexit deal is rejected on Tuesday. Labour is seeking to join forces with rebel Tories and the Democratic Unionist Party to bring the prime minister down by voting against her leadership. Although the vote would not be binding it would place enormous pressure on Mrs May to resign. Conservative MPs reported “febrile” communications yesterday from those jockeying for position before a potential contest. Among those expected to run are Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab, Amber Rudd, Liz Truss, Sajid Javid, Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove. In a sign of ebbing cabinet confidence that Mrs May can win Tuesday’s vote, Ms Rudd today becomes the first cabinet minister to break the taboo of discussing a “Plan B”…
Comments
May would have to do a complete u turn regards Norway , she's already categorically ruled it out .
god knows what happens about the backstop .
These difficulties should have been forseen by the politicians and presented to the population before offering up a referendum . ( stating the obvious , I concede) ...but if they were incapable of seeing what the possibilities were, then how the **** can we trust any of them to implement the exit to our adavantage anyway ?
It is not even so much about the deal, although the main objections to the details contained in the framework that the future negotiations will be based on, are any role played by The ECJ, and the fact that we will have to obey rules without a say in the making of them. As non members, how could we expect a say in the rules? Could we really expect The ECJ to play no role in our future relationship?
The Backstop will not get through Parliament
So it is not even about our future trading relationship, it is about some details, and The Backstop.
These details and The Backstop will apply to any deal. So just changing to Norway, or Canada, wouldn't help because the details wouldn't change and we would still need The Backstop.
So many factions are complaining, but have no solutions.
The DUP hate The Backstop, but what is their solution.
Everyone understands why The EU insist on a border to protect the integrity of The Single Market.
Everyone understands why nobody wants a hard border on the island Ireland.
Therefore the solution can only be a border in the Irish Sea, or remaining in The Customs Union which would mean there would be no requirement for a border.
If you want trade deals elsewhere, then the border must go in The Irish sea,
If that is unacceptable, because it splits up the UK, then we cant leave.
The future trading relationship is far from cut and dried where for instance The PM says we are taking back our fishing rights, yet The French President is insistent that any future trade deal would include shared fishing rights. When these rights are discussed, our side always mentions Europeans fishing in our waters, but usually fail to mention our fishermen fishing in European waters.
Staying in The Customs Union means we cant strike trade deals elsewhere. If we cant strike trade deals elsewhere what is the point of leaving?
How could you move forward by saying we are not having a border in Ireland, or The Irish Sea, and we are not staying in The Customs Union?
Too many factions are saying we don't want this, we don't want that, but have no solutions.
I think it fair to say that it is now obvious that our politicians didn't have a clue on how to disentangle ourselves from The EU after 45 years.
It has split families, friends and work colleagues.
These relationships will be difficult to repair, and a second referendum is unlikely to help with this.
The biggest problem we face is that we are due to leave The EU, at the end of March next year, come what may.
That means we leave with or without a deal.
The deal has to get voted through Parliament prior to us leaving.
Parliament has taken control and the majority has vowed not to allow us to leave without a deal.
It therefore seems increasingly likely that a second referendum is the most likely way out, even though this would do nothing to heal the divisions in our society.
Only a vote in favour of remaining would help.
If we voted again in favour of leaving, we would just be back to square one.
If we had a General Election we would be back to square one.
Parliament is deadlocked and the clock is ticking.
What are the EU’s ‘four freedoms’?
The ‘four freedoms’ of the European Union are the freedom of movement of goods, people, services and capital over borders.
These key principles lie at the heart of the EU and underpin the single market, originally known as the common market.
The freedoms, which are enshrined in EU treaties, aim to remove trade barriers and harmonise national rules at a EU level.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/684968/EU-four-freedoms-what-freedom-of-movement-goods-capital-services-workers-European-Union
Therefore the best outcome may be for Parliament just to revoke Article 50, stay in the EU, and forget a second referendum.
That way we would not be blaming each other, and get over it in a shorter time frame. We would be forced to blame Parliament rather than a particular party.
This may suit all of the political parties, as if the public was able to blame one party, it would take them a long time to recover.
If leave won again, we just go back to square one.
The original plan was to vote between an agreed deal, or staying in.
Yet they cant agree on a deal for us to vote for.
Despite The Good Friday Agreement, and the many years of horrendous troubles.
What did they think would happen?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46393399
European politicians have given a final strongly-worded warning to British MPs preparing to vote against the Brexit deal, with one branding the belief it could be renegotiated almost “insane.”
Both Conservative and Labour MPs are coming in for harsh criticism on the continent for opposing the deal negotiated over the last 18 months.
With opponents on both sides of the Commons, it’s widely expected the deal will be rejected next Tuesday by MPs motivated by the hope of a securing better terms.
But suggestions of any renegotiations are being brutally dismissed on the EU side.
“I found this idea of renegotiating the deal quite strange, not to say on the verge of being insane,” Swedish liberal MEP Jasenko Selimovic told Euronews.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-politicians-blast-almost-insane-idea-brexit-deal-can-renegotiated-161400838.html
Downing Street should use the threat of food shortages in Ireland to pressure the country’s leaders to drop its demands for a Brexit “backstop” arrangement, a former Cabinet member has said.
Ireland faces the prospect of taking a bigger economic hit than the UK should there be a disorderly withdrawal from the European Union.
According to the documents, Ireland could see a 7 per cent drop in GDP under a no deal Brexit, whereas the UK would suffer a 5 per cent drop.
Press it home
The country also sees 80 per cent of its road freight from the EU pass through the UK, meaning any extra border checks “would cause challenges”.
Perishable goods, such as food supplies, would be particularly badly affected, the papers state.
Brexit in-depth: All the latest news, analysis and expert opinion
The details have been seized on by arch-Brexiteers, who believe Theresa May should be using the warnings as leverage against the Irish to scrap its demands to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland.
“This paper appears to show the government were well aware Ireland will face significant issues in a no-deal scenario,” Priti Patel, who was International Development Secretary until last year, told the Times.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexit/priti-patel-use-threats-of-food-shortages-to-force-ireland-to-drop-brexit-backstop/ar-BBQDd8z?ocid=spartanntp
Her policy of pitching the public, and sending The Cabinet out to sell her deal to the electorate, would suddenly make sense.
The ERG would be screwed. What could they campaign for?
It was thought that after she loses the meaningful vote in Parliament, instead of looking for a plan b, or taking the deal back for a second vote, she might go for a referendum.
Or alternatively delay the vote in Parliament, and go straight for a referendum.
Delaying the vote may be seen as a better tactic, and preferable to going to the people with a deal that had already been overwhelmingly rejected by The House of Commons.
The options being to vote for remaining, or her deal.
The logic of this is understandable.
Her failure to find a plan b, that could gain a majority in Parliament, will probably lead to her downfall at some point, and continued chaos.
However if this worked, she may retain power, keep Mr Corbyn out of Downing St, knock Brexit on the head, and get on to more important stuff.
Article 50 would have to be extended, but that wouldn't be a problem.
A referendum would apparently take 9 months to a year to organise, and therefore plenty of time for a campaign.
If the majority voted remain it would be all over and done with.
If her deal won, then negotiations would continue, but probably not figure in the news every day.
The fact that the politicians wouldn't be able to pull the wool so much this time would be a huge plus.
There seems to be a growing tide of opinion supporting a second referendum, as the only way out of the mess.
Theresa May could be forced to stand down as prime minister if her Brexit deal is defeated in the Commons next week, a Tory former leader has warned.
Eurosceptic Iain Duncan Smith cautioned against May and her cabinet deciding to “brazen it out”, saying such an approach would be a “disaster”
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexit/may-warned-she-could-be-forced-out-if-she-pursues-rejected-brexit-deal/ar-BBQEE9a?ocid=spartanntp
MPs are lining up to sack Theresa May if her Brexit deal is rejected on Tuesday. Labour is seeking to join forces with rebel Tories and the Democratic Unionist Party to bring the prime minister down by voting against her leadership.
Although the vote would not be binding it would place enormous pressure on Mrs May to resign. Conservative MPs reported “febrile” communications yesterday from those jockeying for position before a potential contest. Among those expected to run are Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab, Amber Rudd, Liz Truss, Sajid Javid, Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.
In a sign of ebbing cabinet confidence that Mrs May can win Tuesday’s vote, Ms Rudd today becomes the first cabinet minister to break the taboo of discussing a “Plan B”…
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/mps-hatch-cross-party-alliance-to-dump-theresa-may-gvd2qt2s8