In amongst all of this , what's to stop the E.U. effectively blocking an article 50 extension , even if we say there is going to be a 2nd referendum ?
The EU are very much in favour of us not leaving, and have already said that they are prepared to postpone our leaving date, if we were organising a second referendum. The turmoil that has been caused in the UK since the first referendum, would act as a deterrent to any other member that was contemplating leaving.
It has clearly shown how difficult it is to leave, in practice.
In amongst all of this , what's to stop the E.U. effectively blocking an article 50 extension , even if we say there is going to be a 2nd referendum ?
The EU are very much in favour of us not leaving, and have already said that they are prepared to postpone our leaving date, if we were organising a second referendum. The turmoil that has been caused in the UK since the first referendum, would act as a deterrent to any other member that was contemplating leaving.
It has clearly shown how difficult it is to leave, in practice.
This is a quote from a guardian article : "EU officials and diplomats have told the Guardian it would instead require a fundamental shift in British politics for there to be any value for the EU in an extension of the UK’s membership. That position is echoed in Berlin and Paris, among other EU capitals.
Article 50 can only be extended by the unanimous agreement of the 27 other member states, and on the request of the withdrawing state, which May has already said she is not prepared to do."
The UK should be able to unilaterally cancel its withdrawal from the EU, according to a top European law officer.
In a written statement, the ECJ said Mr Campos Sanchez-Bordona's opinion was that if a country decided to leave the EU, it should also have the power to change its mind during the two-year exit process specified in Article 50 of the EU treaty. And it should be able to do so without needing the consent of the other 27 member states - contrary to what the EU itself has argued.
The ECJ statement said the advocate general had proposed that the Court of Justice should "declare that Article 50 allows the unilateral revocation of the notification of the intention to withdraw from the EU". It added: "That possibility continues to exist until such time as the withdrawal agreement is formally concluded."
In amongst all of this , what's to stop the E.U. effectively blocking an article 50 extension , even if we say there is going to be a 2nd referendum ?
The EU are very much in favour of us not leaving, and have already said that they are prepared to postpone our leaving date, if we were organising a second referendum. The turmoil that has been caused in the UK since the first referendum, would act as a deterrent to any other member that was contemplating leaving.
It has clearly shown how difficult it is to leave, in practice.
This is a quote from a guardian article : "EU officials and diplomats have told the Guardian it would instead require a fundamental shift in British politics for there to be any value for the EU in an extension of the UK’s membership. That position is echoed in Berlin and Paris, among other EU capitals.
Article 50 can only be extended by the unanimous agreement of the 27 other member states, and on the request of the withdrawing state, which May has already said she is not prepared to do."
I think that if The PM proceeds with the vote in Parliament on Tuesday, and loses heavily, what happens next? There is no majority currently for any plan b. If the solution was a second referendum, and Parliament had overwhelmingly voted down her deal, what could the question be. Remain or what? There is no appetite for the disaster that would be "no deal". Could the option really be a deal that Parliament had already voted down?
So if the deal is voted down as expected, she effectively rules it out, if we end up with a second referendum, whereas delaying the vote, would keep it in play.
It is hard to see how a Norway plus deal could command a majority. The plus is The Customs Union to avoid The Backstop. That means observing the EU rules with no say, paying annual contributions, and Freedom of Movement.
I think that the possible solutions are narrowing.
I also think that once you rule out a no deal Brexit, the solutions seem to revolve around remaining as close as possible to being members. All of these solutions make us worse off. They all mean that we observe rules with absolutely no say. The only way to avoid The Backstop is via a Customs Union. A Customs Union means no Free Trade Deals elsewhere. Some involve annual contributions. When considering all this it is difficult not to conclude that retaining our membership, is by far the best outcome.
In amongst all of this , what's to stop the E.U. effectively blocking an article 50 extension , even if we say there is going to be a 2nd referendum ?
They are definitely in favour of another referendum, and ultimately would prefer it if we didn't leave.
Well a 2nd referendum isn't necessarily going to provide a different result
I don't think that it is guaranteed, although the latest polls show that there is a majority that favour remain, though not a huge one. I think that some leave voters will stick to their guns, because they have got the hump, rather than decide on the evidence. Some leave voters think that establishment looked upon them as being thick, even though many voted this way, due to reasons they felt were genuine. If the choice was to remain or The PMs deal it is a completely different choice compared to the first one. An increasing number of people see it as the only solution. As we are more aware of the advantages it should make the choice easier. Both sides of the argument can now be much more clearly demonstrated.
Brexit donors: Theresa May's deal is worse than staying in the EU
Three of the biggest donors to the Leave campaign have told Sky News that they are dismayed by the progress of Brexit and that it would be better for Britain to remain in the European Union than sign up to Theresa May's withdrawal agreement. The trio, who offered more than £5m in donations for the Leave campaign, each offered scathing criticism of the political process and insisted that Brexit had been "hampered", "squandered" or "obstructed".
Brexit: Lib Dems to make Commons bid for another referendum
The Lib Dems will try and legislate for another Brexit referendum next week but the People's Vote group are not backing the move, saying the timing is wrong. The Lib Dems are tabling an amendment to the PM's Brexit deal, to be voted on on Tuesday, calling for "all necessary steps" to prepare for another vote. They have urged the Labour leadership to "get off the fence" and back them. But People's Vote sources say they want MPs to reject the deal first to build cross-party momentum behind a ballot. "It has always been our priority to ensure Parliament rejects the deal at this point," a spokesman for the cross-party campaign group said
Comments
The turmoil that has been caused in the UK since the first referendum, would act as a deterrent to any other member that was contemplating leaving.
It has clearly shown how difficult it is to leave, in practice.
Article 50 can only be extended by the unanimous agreement of the 27 other member states, and on the request of the withdrawing state, which May has already said she is not prepared to do."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/22/article-50-extension-unlikely-without-shift-in-uk-politics-say-eu-officials
The UK can halt Brexit by unilaterally revoking Article 50, a senior EU law officer has said.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-latest-uk-can-unilaterally-revoke-article-50-and-reverse-brexit-eu-court-rules-a4007436.html
This article is 4 days old.
The UK should be able to unilaterally cancel its withdrawal from the EU, according to a top European law officer.
In a written statement, the ECJ said Mr Campos Sanchez-Bordona's opinion was that if a country decided to leave the EU, it should also have the power to change its mind during the two-year exit process specified in Article 50 of the EU treaty.
And it should be able to do so without needing the consent of the other 27 member states - contrary to what the EU itself has argued.
The ECJ statement said the advocate general had proposed that the Court of Justice should "declare that Article 50 allows the unilateral revocation of the notification of the intention to withdraw from the EU".
It added: "That possibility continues to exist until such time as the withdrawal agreement is formally concluded."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-46428579
The ECJ ruling will be confirmed on Monday.
The Guardian article was written in July, and is out of date.
The UK could pursue alternative options if Theresa May's Brexit plan is rejected by MPs, Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd has acknowledged.
Ms Rudd said it could be "chaotic" if Mrs May's deal is rejected.
She said a so-called "Norway plus" option or a second referendum would both be potential possibilities in such a situation.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46490642
There is no majority currently for any plan b.
If the solution was a second referendum, and Parliament had overwhelmingly voted down her deal, what could the question be.
Remain or what?
There is no appetite for the disaster that would be "no deal".
Could the option really be a deal that Parliament had already voted down?
So if the deal is voted down as expected, she effectively rules it out, if we end up with a second referendum, whereas delaying the vote, would keep it in play.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/06/drafted-article-50-brexit-referendum-eu-state
Corbyn: I'd delay Brexit for a better deal
The plus is The Customs Union to avoid The Backstop.
That means observing the EU rules with no say, paying annual contributions, and Freedom of Movement.
Really?
All of these solutions make us worse off.
They all mean that we observe rules with absolutely no say.
The only way to avoid The Backstop is via a Customs Union.
A Customs Union means no Free Trade Deals elsewhere.
Some involve annual contributions.
When considering all this it is difficult not to conclude that retaining our membership, is by far the best outcome.
I think that some leave voters will stick to their guns, because they have got the hump, rather than decide on the evidence.
Some leave voters think that establishment looked upon them as being thick, even though many voted this way, due to reasons they felt were genuine.
If the choice was to remain or The PMs deal it is a completely different choice compared to the first one.
An increasing number of people see it as the only solution.
As we are more aware of the advantages it should make the choice easier.
Both sides of the argument can now be much more clearly demonstrated.
Three of the biggest donors to the Leave campaign have told Sky News that they are dismayed by the progress of Brexit and that it would be better for Britain to remain in the European Union than sign up to Theresa May's withdrawal agreement.
The trio, who offered more than £5m in donations for the Leave campaign, each offered scathing criticism of the political process and insisted that Brexit had been "hampered", "squandered" or "obstructed".
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/brexit-donors-theresa-mays-deal-160300285.html
Theresa May's plans to curb immigration after Brexit could result in businesses collapsing and jobs being lost, the head of the CBI has warned
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-businesses-could-collapse-result-201050251.html
The Lib Dems will try and legislate for another Brexit referendum next week but the People's Vote group are not backing the move, saying the timing is wrong.
The Lib Dems are tabling an amendment to the PM's Brexit deal, to be voted on on Tuesday, calling for "all necessary steps" to prepare for another vote.
They have urged the Labour leadership to "get off the fence" and back them.
But People's Vote sources say they want MPs to reject the deal first to build cross-party momentum behind a ballot.
"It has always been our priority to ensure Parliament rejects the deal at this point," a spokesman for the cross-party campaign group said
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46480373