Leave voters dying and Remainers reaching voting age means majority will soon oppose Brexit, study finds Demographic changes mean number of Remain supporters grows by 235,000 each year, while number of Leave backers falls by 260,000
A majority of British voters will soon back staying in the EU as more Leave backers die and Remain supporters reach voting age, according to a new study. Analysis by the former president of YouGov found demographic changes mean around half a million fewer people each year, or around 1,350 a day, now support Brexit – meaning there will soon be enough to overturn the Brexit vote if there was a second referendum.
Even if no one had changed their mind since the 2016 referendum, population changes mean that, from 19 January 2019, a majority of voters will back staying in the EU, according to the analysis. By 29 March, when Britain is due to leave the bloc, the Remain side is forecast to have a majority of around 100,000.
Writing for The Independent, he said: “Early next year, Britain will switch from a pro-Brexit to an anti-Brexit country. To be more precise: if not a single voter in the referendum two years ago changes their mind, enough mainly Leave voters will have died and enough mainly Remain voters will have reached voting age to wipe out the Leave majority achieved in June 2016. “This means that by 29 March, it will be difficult to sustain the argument that the settled view of the British electorate is that Brexit should take place. We are told that we should ‘respect the verdict of the people’, and not reopen the decision they – we – reached in 2016.
This completely ignores the fact that people change as they get older.
That is why the "no deal" group appears to have an average age of about 70 (even assuming Lord Snooty isn't from the 14th Century)-who cares about the future if you either have none, or a £Millions Trust Fund? But there will always be people converting to that view.
As a country, we need to move past the idea of re-running the referendum. In my view, Neil Kinnock had the only policies to help us move forward in 1992, ditto Ed Milliband. But the right-wing press concentrated purely on the individual leading the Labour Party, and ignored the real issues. Guess what?-we didn't rerun those elections til we got it right. Same here. We need to be concentrating on making the best of it, rather than running old battles.
How do you think we could move forward then?
The difficulty is getting people to compromise. I suspect that the answer lies somewhere between Canada and Norway-type deals.
The only realistic consensus has to come from the centre-left of the Tories and the centre-right of Labour, purely from a numbers perspective.
The traditional parties need to remember just how easily a brand new party swept to power in France.
Theresa May does not know the meaning of the word compromise.
Keir Starmer defies Jeremy Corbyn and says Brexit CAN be stopped as Gordon Brown predicts there will be a second referendum amid deep Labour splits Labour's stance is mired in confusion as Brexit negotiations reach critical point Jeremy Corbyn told a German magazine: 'We can't stop it. The vote took place' But his shadow Brexit secretary Starmer insisted today: 'Brexit can be stopped'
Sir Keir Starmer insisted Brexit can be stopped today in defiance of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn's claim there is no way of halting the referendum result. The shadow Brexit secretary insisted 'all options must be on the table' including a second referendum. Mr Corbyn said last week he was powerless to stop Brexit but instead wanted to negotiate an exit on his own terms. Sir Keir's intervention deepens Labour's chaos on quitting the EU. Just yesterday shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry endorsed a new referendum.
Leave voters dying and Remainers reaching voting age means majority will soon oppose Brexit, study finds Demographic changes mean number of Remain supporters grows by 235,000 each year, while number of Leave backers falls by 260,000
A majority of British voters will soon back staying in the EU as more Leave backers die and Remain supporters reach voting age, according to a new study. Analysis by the former president of YouGov found demographic changes mean around half a million fewer people each year, or around 1,350 a day, now support Brexit – meaning there will soon be enough to overturn the Brexit vote if there was a second referendum.
Even if no one had changed their mind since the 2016 referendum, population changes mean that, from 19 January 2019, a majority of voters will back staying in the EU, according to the analysis. By 29 March, when Britain is due to leave the bloc, the Remain side is forecast to have a majority of around 100,000.
Writing for The Independent, he said: “Early next year, Britain will switch from a pro-Brexit to an anti-Brexit country. To be more precise: if not a single voter in the referendum two years ago changes their mind, enough mainly Leave voters will have died and enough mainly Remain voters will have reached voting age to wipe out the Leave majority achieved in June 2016. “This means that by 29 March, it will be difficult to sustain the argument that the settled view of the British electorate is that Brexit should take place. We are told that we should ‘respect the verdict of the people’, and not reopen the decision they – we – reached in 2016.
This completely ignores the fact that people change as they get older.
That is why the "no deal" group appears to have an average age of about 70 (even assuming Lord Snooty isn't from the 14th Century)-who cares about the future if you either have none, or a £Millions Trust Fund? But there will always be people converting to that view.
As a country, we need to move past the idea of re-running the referendum. In my view, Neil Kinnock had the only policies to help us move forward in 1992, ditto Ed Milliband. But the right-wing press concentrated purely on the individual leading the Labour Party, and ignored the real issues. Guess what?-we didn't rerun those elections til we got it right. Same here. We need to be concentrating on making the best of it, rather than running old battles.
How do you think we could move forward then?
The difficulty is getting people to compromise. I suspect that the answer lies somewhere between Canada and Norway-type deals.
The only realistic consensus has to come from the centre-left of the Tories and the centre-right of Labour, purely from a numbers perspective.
The traditional parties need to remember just how easily a brand new party swept to power in France.
This completely ignores the fact that to even talk about any deal they have to pass The Withdrawal Agreement. The ERG, and DUP will never vote for it, while it includes The Backstop.
The EU wont have it , without The Backstop.
The DUP have always said they are open to the idea of some kind of time limit on the backstop...that as far as I'm aware hasn't been explored as an option by May.
"She also has to be mindful of the fact that the DUP is not the only voice on Brexit in Northern Ireland, with a majority of parties and business groups actually urging support for the backstop.
But as a prime minister who's referred to herself as a "proud unionist", the DUP will be keen to see her live up to that."
In saying that I think you are overlooking the power that The DUP have. Withdrawal of their support could collapse The Government.
They have a number of issues with Backstop which look unsolvable.
A time limited Backstop is impossible, as it is designed to last until a trade deal is agreed, and who could say how long that might take, when we are where we are today.
The EU have confirmed that a time limited Backstop will not be possible.
The Dup are important to The Government as the means by which they stay in power, but less important in terms of getting any deal through, as she needs to switch 116 MPs, and The DUP are ten.
Keir Starmer hints Labour could campaign for a second referendum if Theresa May fails to reach consensus on new Brexit deal by 29 January
The Shadow Brexit secretary has hinted that Labour could campaign for a second referendum if an agreement on the Brexit deal isn't met by the end of the month. Keir Starmer spoke at the Fabian Society's new year conference in London today and said that Labour must keep open the option of another vote. He told ITV News Political Correspondent Paul Brand that although he didn't know when 'the crunch moment will come' he hinted that Labour would probably have to campaign if Theresa May fails to reach a consensus on a new deal on January 29th.
He said: 'I don't think it is any secret I firmly believe there should be a Remain option - and there has to be a genuine Leave option.' He said that with time running out before before Brexit day on March 29, it now appeared 'inevitable' the Government would have to apply for an extension to the Article 50 withdrawal process.
He drew the loudest cheer when he said Labour stood by the commitment made at the party conference last year in Liverpool that if it was unable to force a general election all options must remain on the table - including another referendum. 'That is a very important commitment. It's a commitment to you, our members and our movement. And it is one we will keep,' he said.
Earlier, Sir John Major called for a free vote for MPs to break the deadlock in Parliament over the way forward on Brexit. The former prime minister - whose time in office was beset by divisions over Europe - said the Commons had 'comprehensively' killed Mrs May's plan. He said there now needed to be a series of 'indicative' votes to establish which, if any, the various alternative proposals could command the support of a majority of MPs. As an 'act of statesmanship', he said all the party leaders should give their MPs a free vote to allow an 'honest representation' of opinion in the House. 'It is the only way to get an absolutely honest answer from Members of Parliament and if it is a free vote it removes the danger of resignations from Government or the opposition frontbench because they disagree with their leader's policy,' he told the BBC
Theresa May to consider axeing Human Rights Act after Brexit, minister reveals
Theresa May will consider axeing the Human Rights Act after Brexit, despite promising she is “committed” to its protections, a minister has revealed. The government will decide on the future of the landmark legislation once “the process of leaving the EU concludes”, a letter to a parliamentary inquiry says. The wording was described as “troubling” by the Lords EU Justice Sub-Committee, which warned the letter casts doubt on repeated pledges to protect the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR)
Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat home affairs spokesman, said: “This new Conservative threat to repeal the Human Rights Act and withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights is a scandal.”
Leave voters dying and Remainers reaching voting age means majority will soon oppose Brexit, study finds Demographic changes mean number of Remain supporters grows by 235,000 each year, while number of Leave backers falls by 260,000
A majority of British voters will soon back staying in the EU as more Leave backers die and Remain supporters reach voting age, according to a new study. Analysis by the former president of YouGov found demographic changes mean around half a million fewer people each year, or around 1,350 a day, now support Brexit – meaning there will soon be enough to overturn the Brexit vote if there was a second referendum.
Even if no one had changed their mind since the 2016 referendum, population changes mean that, from 19 January 2019, a majority of voters will back staying in the EU, according to the analysis. By 29 March, when Britain is due to leave the bloc, the Remain side is forecast to have a majority of around 100,000.
Writing for The Independent, he said: “Early next year, Britain will switch from a pro-Brexit to an anti-Brexit country. To be more precise: if not a single voter in the referendum two years ago changes their mind, enough mainly Leave voters will have died and enough mainly Remain voters will have reached voting age to wipe out the Leave majority achieved in June 2016. “This means that by 29 March, it will be difficult to sustain the argument that the settled view of the British electorate is that Brexit should take place. We are told that we should ‘respect the verdict of the people’, and not reopen the decision they – we – reached in 2016.
This completely ignores the fact that people change as they get older.
That is why the "no deal" group appears to have an average age of about 70 (even assuming Lord Snooty isn't from the 14th Century)-who cares about the future if you either have none, or a £Millions Trust Fund? But there will always be people converting to that view.
As a country, we need to move past the idea of re-running the referendum. In my view, Neil Kinnock had the only policies to help us move forward in 1992, ditto Ed Milliband. But the right-wing press concentrated purely on the individual leading the Labour Party, and ignored the real issues. Guess what?-we didn't rerun those elections til we got it right. Same here. We need to be concentrating on making the best of it, rather than running old battles.
How do you think we could move forward then?
The difficulty is getting people to compromise. I suspect that the answer lies somewhere between Canada and Norway-type deals.
The only realistic consensus has to come from the centre-left of the Tories and the centre-right of Labour, purely from a numbers perspective.
The traditional parties need to remember just how easily a brand new party swept to power in France.
This completely ignores the fact that to even talk about any deal they have to pass The Withdrawal Agreement. The ERG, and DUP will never vote for it, while it includes The Backstop.
The EU wont have it , without The Backstop.
The DUP have always said they are open to the idea of some kind of time limit on the backstop...that as far as I'm aware hasn't been explored as an option by May.
"She also has to be mindful of the fact that the DUP is not the only voice on Brexit in Northern Ireland, with a majority of parties and business groups actually urging support for the backstop.
But as a prime minister who's referred to herself as a "proud unionist", the DUP will be keen to see her live up to that."
In saying that I think you are overlooking the power that The DUP have. Withdrawal of their support could collapse The Government.
They have a number of issues with Backstop which look unsolvable.
A time limited Backstop is impossible, as it is designed to last until a trade deal is agreed, and who could say how long that might take, when we are where we are today.
The EU have confirmed that a time limited Backstop will not be possible.
The Dup are important to The Government as the means by which they stay in power, but less important in terms of getting any deal through, as she needs to switch 116 MPs, and The DUP are ten.
Northern Ireland voted to remain.
Excellent news !
They are not going to though. The Government bought them.
Theresa May leaves diplomats in 'disbelief' after presenting EU leaders with unchanged Brexit demands
Theresa May has left European diplomats in a state of “disbelief” following a series of phone calls to EU leaders in which she made no change to her demands despite her Brexit plan being voted down by a 230-vote margin this week. Senior EU diplomatic sources said that Mrs May’s unchanged stance was “greeted with incredulity” following a call with the German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday night. “It was the same old story - the same set of demands - all unchanged despite the defeat,” said the source with knowledge of the calls. Mrs May is understood to have repeated the same performance in conversations with the French president Emmanuel Macron, the Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte and the Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, provoking what one source called “diplomatic eye-rolling” in Brussels
On the " another one bites the dust " thread haysie you said this "He wouldn't have been able to retire to France, if we had already done Brexit.
Which is very much alive, unfortunately."
Just not true , ok it will be a more convaluted procedure .
Part of an excerpt from the following article : If you're planning on moving to France permanently in the future If you already know that you want to move to France in the future, the best advice that we can possibly give you is to do this before the end of transition on 31 December 2020. If you do this, you will benefit from the Withdrawal Agreement - as long as there is one, of course (see here for the no deal scenario); you'll become part of the group whose rights to residence are protected for their lifetimes. But you must make sure that you do it in such a way that you're properly exercising your treaty rights of free movement.
This means that your residence in France would be pretty much on the same terms as it would be if you moved today, or last year, or 10 years ago. If you receive, or will receive in future, a UK state pension you would also benefit from reciprocal health care - although you would register to receive health care through the French system in the same way as a French person, it would be funded by the UK. Once again, you'll find all the information about this on this site. Work your way through it in this order:
Leave voters dying and Remainers reaching voting age means majority will soon oppose Brexit, study finds Demographic changes mean number of Remain supporters grows by 235,000 each year, while number of Leave backers falls by 260,000
A majority of British voters will soon back staying in the EU as more Leave backers die and Remain supporters reach voting age, according to a new study. Analysis by the former president of YouGov found demographic changes mean around half a million fewer people each year, or around 1,350 a day, now support Brexit – meaning there will soon be enough to overturn the Brexit vote if there was a second referendum.
Even if no one had changed their mind since the 2016 referendum, population changes mean that, from 19 January 2019, a majority of voters will back staying in the EU, according to the analysis. By 29 March, when Britain is due to leave the bloc, the Remain side is forecast to have a majority of around 100,000.
Writing for The Independent, he said: “Early next year, Britain will switch from a pro-Brexit to an anti-Brexit country. To be more precise: if not a single voter in the referendum two years ago changes their mind, enough mainly Leave voters will have died and enough mainly Remain voters will have reached voting age to wipe out the Leave majority achieved in June 2016. “This means that by 29 March, it will be difficult to sustain the argument that the settled view of the British electorate is that Brexit should take place. We are told that we should ‘respect the verdict of the people’, and not reopen the decision they – we – reached in 2016.
This completely ignores the fact that people change as they get older.
That is why the "no deal" group appears to have an average age of about 70 (even assuming Lord Snooty isn't from the 14th Century)-who cares about the future if you either have none, or a £Millions Trust Fund? But there will always be people converting to that view.
As a country, we need to move past the idea of re-running the referendum. In my view, Neil Kinnock had the only policies to help us move forward in 1992, ditto Ed Milliband. But the right-wing press concentrated purely on the individual leading the Labour Party, and ignored the real issues. Guess what?-we didn't rerun those elections til we got it right. Same here. We need to be concentrating on making the best of it, rather than running old battles.
The polls show that there is a majority for remain.
The polls don't always get it right, but there has been a trend in that direction. I don't know loads about polling, but of the previous two that I have posted, one didn't quote a number of participants, and the other surveyed 26,000, which I thought was quite a lot. Some polls are published that contacted 1,000 people.
Not going to do the maths , but 33,577,342 voted in the referendum , and should there be another one , the total people eligible to vote would far exceed this ...so yea in my mind 26,000 people poll is pretty irrelevant and a good reason why one shouldn't pay too much attention to polls on anything .
On the " another one bites the dust " thread haysie you said this "He wouldn't have been able to retire to France, if we had already done Brexit.
Which is very much alive, unfortunately."
Just not true , ok it will be a more convaluted procedure .
Part of an excerpt from the following article : If you're planning on moving to France permanently in the future If you already know that you want to move to France in the future, the best advice that we can possibly give you is to do this before the end of transition on 31 December 2020. If you do this, you will benefit from the Withdrawal Agreement - as long as there is one, of course (see here for the no deal scenario); you'll become part of the group whose rights to residence are protected for their lifetimes. But you must make sure that you do it in such a way that you're properly exercising your treaty rights of free movement.
This means that your residence in France would be pretty much on the same terms as it would be if you moved today, or last year, or 10 years ago. If you receive, or will receive in future, a UK state pension you would also benefit from reciprocal health care - although you would register to receive health care through the French system in the same way as a French person, it would be funded by the UK. Once again, you'll find all the information about this on this site. Work your way through it in this order:
Did you actually read the article you posted. What you are quoting from refers to the transition period, rather than the situation after we have left.
How will things change after Brexit? After Brexit, as a British citizen living in the UK you will lose your EU citizenship and with it your right to free movement. You'll become a Third Country National - and you'll be treated no differently from someone arriving from New Zealand, Chile, Morocco or anywhere else in the non-EU world. This will happen from the end of the transition period, 31 December 2020, if an exit deal is agreed. If the UK exits the EU with no deal, it will happen from 29 March 2019.
The precise immigration conditions that will be applied to British citizens wanting to enter the EU will only be agreed as part of the 'future relationship' negotiations, but there is no reason to believe that those conditions will be in any way more favourable than those currently applied to all Third Country Nationals.
As a Third Country National, you will be able to spend 90 days in every 180 days in the Schengen area. So if you arrive at your French house on 1 March, you can stay there until the end of May. Then you must return to the UK for another 3 months before you can travel again, so you would not be able to return before September. And during the 'home' period between June to September, you wouldn't be able to take any short trips to any of the other Schengen countries either, as the 90/180 day rule applies to the entire Schengen area, not just to any one country within it. So no quick Ryanair city breaks in between times!
If you want to stay longer than 3 months, your right to remain would be subject to national immigration rules (as now, but much more strict - see below).
So make no bones about it. Brexit will change the life, and the lifestyle, of anyone with a second home in an EU27 country or who spends more than 3 months at a time in an EU27 country.
Leave voters dying and Remainers reaching voting age means majority will soon oppose Brexit, study finds Demographic changes mean number of Remain supporters grows by 235,000 each year, while number of Leave backers falls by 260,000
A majority of British voters will soon back staying in the EU as more Leave backers die and Remain supporters reach voting age, according to a new study. Analysis by the former president of YouGov found demographic changes mean around half a million fewer people each year, or around 1,350 a day, now support Brexit – meaning there will soon be enough to overturn the Brexit vote if there was a second referendum.
Even if no one had changed their mind since the 2016 referendum, population changes mean that, from 19 January 2019, a majority of voters will back staying in the EU, according to the analysis. By 29 March, when Britain is due to leave the bloc, the Remain side is forecast to have a majority of around 100,000.
Writing for The Independent, he said: “Early next year, Britain will switch from a pro-Brexit to an anti-Brexit country. To be more precise: if not a single voter in the referendum two years ago changes their mind, enough mainly Leave voters will have died and enough mainly Remain voters will have reached voting age to wipe out the Leave majority achieved in June 2016. “This means that by 29 March, it will be difficult to sustain the argument that the settled view of the British electorate is that Brexit should take place. We are told that we should ‘respect the verdict of the people’, and not reopen the decision they – we – reached in 2016.
This completely ignores the fact that people change as they get older.
That is why the "no deal" group appears to have an average age of about 70 (even assuming Lord Snooty isn't from the 14th Century)-who cares about the future if you either have none, or a £Millions Trust Fund? But there will always be people converting to that view.
As a country, we need to move past the idea of re-running the referendum. In my view, Neil Kinnock had the only policies to help us move forward in 1992, ditto Ed Milliband. But the right-wing press concentrated purely on the individual leading the Labour Party, and ignored the real issues. Guess what?-we didn't rerun those elections til we got it right. Same here. We need to be concentrating on making the best of it, rather than running old battles.
The polls show that there is a majority for remain.
The polls don't always get it right, but there has been a trend in that direction. I don't know loads about polling, but of the previous two that I have posted, one didn't quote a number of participants, and the other surveyed 26,000, which I thought was quite a lot. Some polls are published that contacted 1,000 people.
Not going to do the maths , but 33,577,342 voted in the referendum , and should there be another one , the total people eligible to vote would far exceed this ...so yea in my mind 26,000 people poll is pretty irrelevant and a good reason why one shouldn't pay too much attention to polls on anything .
They have had Brexit data for more than 30 months. YouGov are respected for their polling, compared to many of their competitors. As far as polling goes 26,000 is quite a sizeable sample.
The whole point of polling is to take smaller samples, and in the case of Brexit, noting the changes on a percentage basis. The key to accurate polling is the variety of the sample.
The Brexit data has gone through a lot of analysis, and much is known about it. Every Parliamentary Constituency has been analysed and split up according to the party they voted for, their ages, their referendum vote etc etc.
The fact that so much analysis has been done, would I think make quite accurate polling fairly easy.
Leave voters dying and Remainers reaching voting age means majority will soon oppose Brexit, study finds Demographic changes mean number of Remain supporters grows by 235,000 each year, while number of Leave backers falls by 260,000
A majority of British voters will soon back staying in the EU as more Leave backers die and Remain supporters reach voting age, according to a new study. Analysis by the former president of YouGov found demographic changes mean around half a million fewer people each year, or around 1,350 a day, now support Brexit – meaning there will soon be enough to overturn the Brexit vote if there was a second referendum.
Even if no one had changed their mind since the 2016 referendum, population changes mean that, from 19 January 2019, a majority of voters will back staying in the EU, according to the analysis. By 29 March, when Britain is due to leave the bloc, the Remain side is forecast to have a majority of around 100,000.
Writing for The Independent, he said: “Early next year, Britain will switch from a pro-Brexit to an anti-Brexit country. To be more precise: if not a single voter in the referendum two years ago changes their mind, enough mainly Leave voters will have died and enough mainly Remain voters will have reached voting age to wipe out the Leave majority achieved in June 2016. “This means that by 29 March, it will be difficult to sustain the argument that the settled view of the British electorate is that Brexit should take place. We are told that we should ‘respect the verdict of the people’, and not reopen the decision they – we – reached in 2016.
This completely ignores the fact that people change as they get older.
That is why the "no deal" group appears to have an average age of about 70 (even assuming Lord Snooty isn't from the 14th Century)-who cares about the future if you either have none, or a £Millions Trust Fund? But there will always be people converting to that view.
As a country, we need to move past the idea of re-running the referendum. In my view, Neil Kinnock had the only policies to help us move forward in 1992, ditto Ed Milliband. But the right-wing press concentrated purely on the individual leading the Labour Party, and ignored the real issues. Guess what?-we didn't rerun those elections til we got it right. Same here. We need to be concentrating on making the best of it, rather than running old battles.
The polls show that there is a majority for remain.
The polls don't always get it right, but there has been a trend in that direction. I don't know loads about polling, but of the previous two that I have posted, one didn't quote a number of participants, and the other surveyed 26,000, which I thought was quite a lot. Some polls are published that contacted 1,000 people.
Not going to do the maths , but 33,577,342 voted in the referendum , and should there be another one , the total people eligible to vote would far exceed this ...so yea in my mind 26,000 people poll is pretty irrelevant and a good reason why one shouldn't pay too much attention to polls on anything .
Perhaps 150 polls is enough?
Brexit news latest: Majority of Brits now want to REMAIN in the EU, anaylsis of nearly 150 polls finds
A majority of Britons now want the country to stay in the European Union, according to analysis of nearly 150 polls for the Evening Standard.
Pollsters argue that surveys are more accurate today than before the referendum because they have the 52-48 result as a base to work from and thanks to other changes in methodology.
On the " another one bites the dust " thread haysie you said this "He wouldn't have been able to retire to France, if we had already done Brexit.
Which is very much alive, unfortunately."
Just not true , ok it will be a more convaluted procedure .
Part of an excerpt from the following article : If you're planning on moving to France permanently in the future If you already know that you want to move to France in the future, the best advice that we can possibly give you is to do this before the end of transition on 31 December 2020. If you do this, you will benefit from the Withdrawal Agreement - as long as there is one, of course (see here for the no deal scenario); you'll become part of the group whose rights to residence are protected for their lifetimes. But you must make sure that you do it in such a way that you're properly exercising your treaty rights of free movement.
This means that your residence in France would be pretty much on the same terms as it would be if you moved today, or last year, or 10 years ago. If you receive, or will receive in future, a UK state pension you would also benefit from reciprocal health care - although you would register to receive health care through the French system in the same way as a French person, it would be funded by the UK. Once again, you'll find all the information about this on this site. Work your way through it in this order:
Did you actually read the article you posted. What you are quoting from refers to the transition period, rather than the situation after we have left.
How will things change after Brexit? After Brexit, as a British citizen living in the UK you will lose your EU citizenship and with it your right to free movement. You'll become a Third Country National - and you'll be treated no differently from someone arriving from New Zealand, Chile, Morocco or anywhere else in the non-EU world. This will happen from the end of the transition period, 31 December 2020, if an exit deal is agreed. If the UK exits the EU with no deal, it will happen from 29 March 2019.
The precise immigration conditions that will be applied to British citizens wanting to enter the EU will only be agreed as part of the 'future relationship' negotiations, but there is no reason to believe that those conditions will be in any way more favourable than those currently applied to all Third Country Nationals.
As a Third Country National, you will be able to spend 90 days in every 180 days in the Schengen area. So if you arrive at your French house on 1 March, you can stay there until the end of May. Then you must return to the UK for another 3 months before you can travel again, so you would not be able to return before September. And during the 'home' period between June to September, you wouldn't be able to take any short trips to any of the other Schengen countries either, as the 90/180 day rule applies to the entire Schengen area, not just to any one country within it. So no quick Ryanair city breaks in between times!
If you want to stay longer than 3 months, your right to remain would be subject to national immigration rules (as now, but much more strict - see below).
So make no bones about it. Brexit will change the life, and the lifestyle, of anyone with a second home in an EU27 country or who spends more than 3 months at a time in an EU27 country.
Yes I did read it and none of what you have quoted above , prevents you from retiring to France
Leave voters dying and Remainers reaching voting age means majority will soon oppose Brexit, study finds Demographic changes mean number of Remain supporters grows by 235,000 each year, while number of Leave backers falls by 260,000
A majority of British voters will soon back staying in the EU as more Leave backers die and Remain supporters reach voting age, according to a new study. Analysis by the former president of YouGov found demographic changes mean around half a million fewer people each year, or around 1,350 a day, now support Brexit – meaning there will soon be enough to overturn the Brexit vote if there was a second referendum.
Even if no one had changed their mind since the 2016 referendum, population changes mean that, from 19 January 2019, a majority of voters will back staying in the EU, according to the analysis. By 29 March, when Britain is due to leave the bloc, the Remain side is forecast to have a majority of around 100,000.
Writing for The Independent, he said: “Early next year, Britain will switch from a pro-Brexit to an anti-Brexit country. To be more precise: if not a single voter in the referendum two years ago changes their mind, enough mainly Leave voters will have died and enough mainly Remain voters will have reached voting age to wipe out the Leave majority achieved in June 2016. “This means that by 29 March, it will be difficult to sustain the argument that the settled view of the British electorate is that Brexit should take place. We are told that we should ‘respect the verdict of the people’, and not reopen the decision they – we – reached in 2016.
This completely ignores the fact that people change as they get older.
That is why the "no deal" group appears to have an average age of about 70 (even assuming Lord Snooty isn't from the 14th Century)-who cares about the future if you either have none, or a £Millions Trust Fund? But there will always be people converting to that view.
As a country, we need to move past the idea of re-running the referendum. In my view, Neil Kinnock had the only policies to help us move forward in 1992, ditto Ed Milliband. But the right-wing press concentrated purely on the individual leading the Labour Party, and ignored the real issues. Guess what?-we didn't rerun those elections til we got it right. Same here. We need to be concentrating on making the best of it, rather than running old battles.
The polls show that there is a majority for remain.
The polls don't always get it right, but there has been a trend in that direction. I don't know loads about polling, but of the previous two that I have posted, one didn't quote a number of participants, and the other surveyed 26,000, which I thought was quite a lot. Some polls are published that contacted 1,000 people.
Not going to do the maths , but 33,577,342 voted in the referendum , and should there be another one , the total people eligible to vote would far exceed this ...so yea in my mind 26,000 people poll is pretty irrelevant and a good reason why one shouldn't pay too much attention to polls on anything .
Perhaps 150 polls is enough?
Brexit news latest: Majority of Brits now want to REMAIN in the EU, anaylsis of nearly 150 polls finds
A majority of Britons now want the country to stay in the European Union, according to analysis of nearly 150 polls for the Evening Standard.
Pollsters argue that surveys are more accurate today than before the referendum because they have the 52-48 result as a base to work from and thanks to other changes in methodology.
On the " another one bites the dust " thread haysie you said this "He wouldn't have been able to retire to France, if we had already done Brexit.
Which is very much alive, unfortunately."
Just not true , ok it will be a more convaluted procedure .
Part of an excerpt from the following article : If you're planning on moving to France permanently in the future If you already know that you want to move to France in the future, the best advice that we can possibly give you is to do this before the end of transition on 31 December 2020. If you do this, you will benefit from the Withdrawal Agreement - as long as there is one, of course (see here for the no deal scenario); you'll become part of the group whose rights to residence are protected for their lifetimes. But you must make sure that you do it in such a way that you're properly exercising your treaty rights of free movement.
This means that your residence in France would be pretty much on the same terms as it would be if you moved today, or last year, or 10 years ago. If you receive, or will receive in future, a UK state pension you would also benefit from reciprocal health care - although you would register to receive health care through the French system in the same way as a French person, it would be funded by the UK. Once again, you'll find all the information about this on this site. Work your way through it in this order:
Did you actually read the article you posted. What you are quoting from refers to the transition period, rather than the situation after we have left.
How will things change after Brexit? After Brexit, as a British citizen living in the UK you will lose your EU citizenship and with it your right to free movement. You'll become a Third Country National - and you'll be treated no differently from someone arriving from New Zealand, Chile, Morocco or anywhere else in the non-EU world. This will happen from the end of the transition period, 31 December 2020, if an exit deal is agreed. If the UK exits the EU with no deal, it will happen from 29 March 2019.
The precise immigration conditions that will be applied to British citizens wanting to enter the EU will only be agreed as part of the 'future relationship' negotiations, but there is no reason to believe that those conditions will be in any way more favourable than those currently applied to all Third Country Nationals.
As a Third Country National, you will be able to spend 90 days in every 180 days in the Schengen area. So if you arrive at your French house on 1 March, you can stay there until the end of May. Then you must return to the UK for another 3 months before you can travel again, so you would not be able to return before September. And during the 'home' period between June to September, you wouldn't be able to take any short trips to any of the other Schengen countries either, as the 90/180 day rule applies to the entire Schengen area, not just to any one country within it. So no quick Ryanair city breaks in between times!
If you want to stay longer than 3 months, your right to remain would be subject to national immigration rules (as now, but much more strict - see below).
So make no bones about it. Brexit will change the life, and the lifestyle, of anyone with a second home in an EU27 country or who spends more than 3 months at a time in an EU27 country.
Yes I did read it and none of what you have quoted above , prevents you from retiring to France
As my comment clearly referred to the post Brexit situation, assuming you had read the article, it is strange that you would quote the circumstances which apply to the pre Brexit situation.
What might well prohibit many retired UK citizens from moving to France post Brexit will be their failure to meet the income qualification. Which is quite high for an average couple. It is more than double the current state pension.
As you would not be allowed to work, it would make things far more difficult. As would providing your own health cover in the longer term.
If you wish to remain a British citizen, the amount of time you are allowed to stay will be limited.
Moving after 31 December 2020 If you move to France after the end of transition you would do so as a Third Country National. Before you leave the UK you'd need to apply to the French Consulate in the UK for a long stay visa; once arrived in France, you would have 2 months to apply for a titre de séjour. The type of titre de séjour depends on your exact situation - there are a lot of them and the requirements for all of them are different! This is the main portal site on the French government website which links to detailed information for each type of card.
If you're retired or otherwise inactive, you would apply for a card entitled 'Visitor' which doesn't allow you to work. You'd need to show evidence of 'sufficient and stable resources' - this is higher for Third Country Nationals than for EU citizens and is currently set at the net level of SMIC: 1170,69€ per month, per person. For a visitor's titre de séjour note that you do NOT need to show evidence of health cover, although if after 5 years you want to apply for a Titre de Séjour Longue Durée you would at that point need to do so. The cost of a visitor's titre de séjour is currently 269€ and the card lasts for one year; it's renewable, and to renew you'd need to show the same evidence as for an initial application. For more details, use this link to take you to the official government web page: https://www.service-
Here are your choices.
1. You can remain as a British resident and accept that your visits to France will have to be restricted to 90 days in every 180 days.
You are clearly making assumptions about what is likely to happen post brexit ... we don't even know Brexit is even going to happen . Either way , to say you can't retire to France (albeit with different procedures ) , is plainly ridiculous ! You are also making the assumption that people who retire to France wouldn't be interested in applying for French citizenship
Leave voters dying and Remainers reaching voting age means majority will soon oppose Brexit, study finds Demographic changes mean number of Remain supporters grows by 235,000 each year, while number of Leave backers falls by 260,000
A majority of British voters will soon back staying in the EU as more Leave backers die and Remain supporters reach voting age, according to a new study. Analysis by the former president of YouGov found demographic changes mean around half a million fewer people each year, or around 1,350 a day, now support Brexit – meaning there will soon be enough to overturn the Brexit vote if there was a second referendum.
Even if no one had changed their mind since the 2016 referendum, population changes mean that, from 19 January 2019, a majority of voters will back staying in the EU, according to the analysis. By 29 March, when Britain is due to leave the bloc, the Remain side is forecast to have a majority of around 100,000.
Writing for The Independent, he said: “Early next year, Britain will switch from a pro-Brexit to an anti-Brexit country. To be more precise: if not a single voter in the referendum two years ago changes their mind, enough mainly Leave voters will have died and enough mainly Remain voters will have reached voting age to wipe out the Leave majority achieved in June 2016. “This means that by 29 March, it will be difficult to sustain the argument that the settled view of the British electorate is that Brexit should take place. We are told that we should ‘respect the verdict of the people’, and not reopen the decision they – we – reached in 2016.
This completely ignores the fact that people change as they get older.
That is why the "no deal" group appears to have an average age of about 70 (even assuming Lord Snooty isn't from the 14th Century)-who cares about the future if you either have none, or a £Millions Trust Fund? But there will always be people converting to that view.
As a country, we need to move past the idea of re-running the referendum. In my view, Neil Kinnock had the only policies to help us move forward in 1992, ditto Ed Milliband. But the right-wing press concentrated purely on the individual leading the Labour Party, and ignored the real issues. Guess what?-we didn't rerun those elections til we got it right. Same here. We need to be concentrating on making the best of it, rather than running old battles.
The polls show that there is a majority for remain.
The polls don't always get it right, but there has been a trend in that direction. I don't know loads about polling, but of the previous two that I have posted, one didn't quote a number of participants, and the other surveyed 26,000, which I thought was quite a lot. Some polls are published that contacted 1,000 people.
Not going to do the maths , but 33,577,342 voted in the referendum , and should there be another one , the total people eligible to vote would far exceed this ...so yea in my mind 26,000 people poll is pretty irrelevant and a good reason why one shouldn't pay too much attention to polls on anything .
Perhaps 150 polls is enough?
Brexit news latest: Majority of Brits now want to REMAIN in the EU, anaylsis of nearly 150 polls finds
A majority of Britons now want the country to stay in the European Union, according to analysis of nearly 150 polls for the Evening Standard.
Pollsters argue that surveys are more accurate today than before the referendum because they have the 52-48 result as a base to work from and thanks to other changes in methodology.
You are clearly making assumptions about what is likely to happen post brexit ... we don't even know Brexit is even going to happen . Either way , to say you can't retire to France (albeit with different procedures ) , is plainly ridiculous ! You are also making the assumption that people who retire to France wouldn't be interested in applying for French citizenship
No I am merely pointing out that after the end of Freedom of Movement, different criteria will apply, which will preclude many people, or did you not understand the article that you posted.
We currently have freedom of movement, as we are EU members.
The article clearly points out the differences between the current situation, the transition period, and after we have left.
Comments
Yet when the Sky Reporter that was present, phoned the leaders office, their response was that they are still pursuing a General Election.
This is despite the fact that The Lib Dems have deserted them, and have little chance of winning a no confidence vote.
They are as badly split as The Tories. The only reason they have got this far is through their constructive ambiguity, and talking nonsense.
They ramble on and on about democracy, while ignoring their members, and voters.
Both main parties are pathetic.
Labour's stance is mired in confusion as Brexit negotiations reach critical point
Jeremy Corbyn told a German magazine: 'We can't stop it. The vote took place'
But his shadow Brexit secretary Starmer insisted today: 'Brexit can be stopped'
Sir Keir Starmer insisted Brexit can be stopped today in defiance of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn's claim there is no way of halting the referendum result.
The shadow Brexit secretary insisted 'all options must be on the table' including a second referendum.
Mr Corbyn said last week he was powerless to stop Brexit but instead wanted to negotiate an exit on his own terms.
Sir Keir's intervention deepens Labour's chaos on quitting the EU. Just yesterday shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry endorsed a new referendum.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6379671/Keir-Starmer-defies-Jeremy-Corbyn-says-Brexit-stopped.html
The Shadow Brexit secretary has hinted that Labour could campaign for a second referendum if an agreement on the Brexit deal isn't met by the end of the month.
Keir Starmer spoke at the Fabian Society's new year conference in London today and said that Labour must keep open the option of another vote.
He told ITV News Political Correspondent Paul Brand that although he didn't know when 'the crunch moment will come' he hinted that Labour would probably have to campaign if Theresa May fails to reach a consensus on a new deal on January 29th.
He said: 'I don't think it is any secret I firmly believe there should be a Remain option - and there has to be a genuine Leave option.'
He said that with time running out before before Brexit day on March 29, it now appeared 'inevitable' the Government would have to apply for an extension to the Article 50 withdrawal process.
He drew the loudest cheer when he said Labour stood by the commitment made at the party conference last year in Liverpool that if it was unable to force a general election all options must remain on the table - including another referendum.
'That is a very important commitment. It's a commitment to you, our members and our movement. And it is one we will keep,' he said.
Earlier, Sir John Major called for a free vote for MPs to break the deadlock in Parliament over the way forward on Brexit.
The former prime minister - whose time in office was beset by divisions over Europe - said the Commons had 'comprehensively' killed Mrs May's plan.
He said there now needed to be a series of 'indicative' votes to establish which, if any, the various alternative proposals could command the support of a majority of MPs.
As an 'act of statesmanship', he said all the party leaders should give their MPs a free vote to allow an 'honest representation' of opinion in the House.
'It is the only way to get an absolutely honest answer from Members of Parliament and if it is a free vote it removes the danger of resignations from Government or the opposition frontbench because they disagree with their leader's policy,' he told the BBC
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6610299/Keir-Starmer-hints-Labour-campaign-second-referendum-fails-reach-new-Brexit-deal.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490
Theresa May will consider axeing the Human Rights Act after Brexit, despite promising she is “committed” to its protections, a minister has revealed.
The government will decide on the future of the landmark legislation once “the process of leaving the EU concludes”, a letter to a parliamentary inquiry says.
The wording was described as “troubling” by the Lords EU Justice Sub-Committee, which warned the letter casts doubt on repeated pledges to protect the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR)
Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat home affairs spokesman, said: “This new Conservative threat to repeal the Human Rights Act and withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights is a scandal.”
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexit/theresa-may-to-consider-axeing-human-rights-act-after-brexit-minister-reveals/ar-BBSq9R0?ocid=spartandhp
Theresa May has left European diplomats in a state of “disbelief” following a series of phone calls to EU leaders in which she made no change to her demands despite her Brexit plan being voted down by a 230-vote margin this week.
Senior EU diplomatic sources said that Mrs May’s unchanged stance was “greeted with incredulity” following a call with the German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday night.
“It was the same old story - the same set of demands - all unchanged despite the defeat,” said the source with knowledge of the calls.
Mrs May is understood to have repeated the same performance in conversations with the French president Emmanuel Macron, the Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte and the Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, provoking what one source called “diplomatic eye-rolling” in Brussels
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/theresa-may-leaves-diplomats-apos-195011581.html
Diane Abbot is just not very good.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/way-treated-time-disgrace-since-192900400.html
Which is very much alive, unfortunately."
Just not true , ok it will be a more convaluted procedure .
Part of an excerpt from the following article : If you're planning on moving to France permanently in the future
If you already know that you want to move to France in the future, the best advice that we can possibly give you is to do this before the end of transition on 31 December 2020. If you do this, you will benefit from the Withdrawal Agreement - as long as there is one, of course (see here for the no deal scenario); you'll become part of the group whose rights to residence are protected for their lifetimes. But you must make sure that you do it in such a way that you're properly exercising your treaty rights of free movement.
This means that your residence in France would be pretty much on the same terms as it would be if you moved today, or last year, or 10 years ago. If you receive, or will receive in future, a UK state pension you would also benefit from reciprocal health care - although you would register to receive health care through the French system in the same way as a French person, it would be funded by the UK. Once again, you'll find all the information about this on this site. Work your way through it in this order:
https://www.remaininfrance.org/not-yet-resident-or-only-partly-resident-in-france.html
How will things change after Brexit?
After Brexit, as a British citizen living in the UK you will lose your EU citizenship and with it your right to free movement. You'll become a Third Country National - and you'll be treated no differently from someone arriving from New Zealand, Chile, Morocco or anywhere else in the non-EU world. This will happen from the end of the transition period, 31 December 2020, if an exit deal is agreed. If the UK exits the EU with no deal, it will happen from 29 March 2019.
The precise immigration conditions that will be applied to British citizens wanting to enter the EU will only be agreed as part of the 'future relationship' negotiations, but there is no reason to believe that those conditions will be in any way more favourable than those currently applied to all Third Country Nationals.
As a Third Country National, you will be able to spend 90 days in every 180 days in the Schengen area. So if you arrive at your French house on 1 March, you can stay there until the end of May. Then you must return to the UK for another 3 months before you can travel again, so you would not be able to return before September. And during the 'home' period between June to September, you wouldn't be able to take any short trips to any of the other Schengen countries either, as the 90/180 day rule applies to the entire Schengen area, not just to any one country within it. So no quick Ryanair city breaks in between times!
If you want to stay longer than 3 months, your right to remain would be subject to national immigration rules (as now, but much more strict - see below).
So make no bones about it. Brexit will change the life, and the lifestyle, of anyone with a second home in an EU27 country or who spends more than 3 months at a time in an EU27 country.
The whole point of polling is to take smaller samples, and in the case of Brexit, noting the changes on a percentage basis. The key to accurate polling is the variety of the sample.
The Brexit data has gone through a lot of analysis, and much is known about it. Every Parliamentary Constituency has been analysed and split up according to the party they voted for, their ages, their referendum vote etc etc.
The fact that so much analysis has been done, would I think make quite accurate polling fairly easy.
Polling is quite valuable in recognising trends.
We will soon see how accurate it is.
Perhaps 150 polls is enough?
Brexit news latest: Majority of Brits now want to REMAIN in the EU, anaylsis of nearly 150 polls finds
A majority of Britons now want the country to stay in the European Union, according to analysis of nearly 150 polls for the Evening Standard.
Pollsters argue that surveys are more accurate today than before the referendum because they have the 52-48 result as a base to work from and thanks to other changes in methodology.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-latest-majority-of-brits-now-want-to-remain-in-the-eu-anaylsis-of-nearly-150-polls-finds-a3956181.html
What might well prohibit many retired UK citizens from moving to France post Brexit will be their failure to meet the income qualification. Which is quite high for an average couple. It is more than double the current state pension.
As you would not be allowed to work, it would make things far more difficult. As would providing your own health cover in the longer term.
If you wish to remain a British citizen, the amount of time you are allowed to stay will be limited.
Moving after 31 December 2020
If you move to France after the end of transition you would do so as a Third Country National. Before you leave the UK you'd need to apply to the French Consulate in the UK for a long stay visa; once arrived in France, you would have 2 months to apply for a titre de séjour. The type of titre de séjour depends on your exact situation - there are a lot of them and the requirements for all of them are different! This is the main portal site on the French government website which links to detailed information for each type of card.
If you're retired or otherwise inactive, you would apply for a card entitled 'Visitor' which doesn't allow you to work. You'd need to show evidence of 'sufficient and stable resources' - this is higher for Third Country Nationals than for EU citizens and is currently set at the net level of SMIC: 1170,69€ per month, per person. For a visitor's titre de séjour note that you do NOT need to show evidence of health cover, although if after 5 years you want to apply for a Titre de Séjour Longue Durée you would at that point need to do so. The cost of a visitor's titre de séjour is currently 269€ and the card lasts for one year; it's renewable, and to renew you'd need to show the same evidence as for an initial application.
For more details, use this link to take you to the official government web page: https://www.service-
Here are your choices.
1. You can remain as a British resident and accept that your visits to France will have to be restricted to 90 days in every 180 days.
We currently have freedom of movement, as we are EU members.
The article clearly points out the differences between the current situation, the transition period, and after we have left.