Like a lot of poker players, I like Maths. Which is why, in the face of the worst health crisis in 100 years, i am becoming increasingly annoyed with "experts" continually giving us what they KNOW to be completely bogus figures.
1. The 233 "deaths" "from" coronavirus.
They are nothing of the sort, and they know that. They are 233 people who have died WITH coronavirus. That's not the same thing. some will have died because of it, but others (like thousands of deaths every year) die because pneumonia creates the final step in an inevitable pattern.
So-for example-in a typical year, 8,000 people die because of flu. Many more thousands die with flu, but they calculate the extra deaths. You know, like you would expect ANY scientist to do.
2. The current status of people who they say have the virus.
Today (like every day) we are given an update on active and closed cases. "Active"? Today, there are 4,672 "mild" and 20 "serious" cases. And (typically) close to 100 people will die. And yet that 20 figure never moves. And "Chief Scientists" don't appear to notice.
"Closed" cases? 326. 93 recovered, and 233 died. When they are SURE (and I believe them) that the mortality rate is between 0.5% and 1%. When their rubbish figures are showing a mortality rate of about 70%.
3. 5,018 current cases
Really? Do the Maths.
If 233 have died, then, on the 0.5%-1% figures, it is not the case that c.35,000 HAVE the disease. It is that c.35,000 have already RECOVERED from it, or are known to have it and have a 0% chance of dying. You can't include people who currently have it, cos they are not completed statistics.
IF only 5,000 currently have the virus, it would be safe to see your elderly relatives. But, logically, the figure is WAAAAY higher.
Either we have scientists who cannot understand basic maths, or they are being told to give us figures that they know fine well are wrong.
Thats a great explanation and summary , I appreciate the time youve taken , thers is a lot of haze.
All countries are struggling with accuracy. Except us-we are choosing to avoid attempting to be accurate.
All countries have a different approach on testing, we do not have enough testing kits for everyone who has a cough. There are also issues with negative tests that occur too early in the symptom cycle. The cautious approach is to tell everyone exhibiting systems to self-isolate, which they have.
timing is everything. We need to be making decisions based on what the numbers really are. Not at the death end, at the getting the virus end. Because that is the bit that Governments can try to control.
The death end infers the virus end. If we're sure the other countries have the virus end and death % nailed, we can overlay our death data onto theirs to estimate. This is good enough to propose actions.
Germany's death rate is out of line with similar countries. They are undoubtedly using a different definition as to when coronavirus "causes" death.
There are a number of factors that could be at play here, they could be testing many more, they could have better access to medical equipment (I think I read they had 4x as many ventilators than the UK for a similar level of population), or they could have a different definition of death of course. The point is each country will have its own set of unique figures, so it makes no sense to work up from a globally established 1%.
The number 1 priority should be trying to limit the spread of disease, in particular in relation to ICU capacity. But an important part of that is limiting people, particularly the elderly, getting it in the first place.
Yes. But as you said, timing is key. You go into lockdown too early you have to stay there for longer. Then when you emerge from lockdown, assuming there's no vaccination by this time, the whole thing starts again with the acceleration based on the amount of 'herd immunity' that's been created (if we believe that's a thing), less the earlier you go.
"Dangerous behaviour"? London needs to be in lockdown. There needs to be clear rules in relation to workplace behaviour-plenty of rules for TV programmes, none for call centres. Commuting needs to be restricted. There needs to be rules about visiting the elderly on Mothers Day. Not "guidance"-rules.
We are taking steps in relation to the economy. But not enough in relation to slowing the spread of the virus.
The main reason people do not want to believe how serious this is, is that they are being fed figures that massively underestimate the extent of problems now.
You started above by declaring that the number of virus related deaths is overstated. This is where my confusion has come from. You weren't clear in which behaviours you deemed dangerous (which is why I asked) - I had thought you were on the side of 'closing business is dangerous' given the numbers are unreliable and deaths overstated. I think the government have given people the chance to take the advice (in the name of freedom?), then started removing opportunities for people to congregate given a lot of people aren't staying home. The latest messages appear to be a warning that we will be locked down if people don't do this of their own volition. I agree they could have been tougher in this respect. It hasn't helped small businesses as it's pushed the decision to them and anecdotally had caused some not to be insured under business interruption.
I think the government is learning as it goes, they couldn't close schools until they had a way forward for key workers, now they have that. They still have an issue where a lot of the key workers are at home not knowing if their or their families symptoms are necessary to isolate with. Tests should be expedited to those to release people back to their jobs.
They need to be scaring people into their wits. Far more coverage of the state of Italian hospitals. A demonstration of how we're on the same trajectory as them, and just a couple of weeks behind. More focus on the current state of our own ICU capacity, and just how the red line is on the imperial report relative to the expected spike of the number of people expected to need it. More focus on reports of doctors and nurses already experiencing capacity problems. Less hollow 'thanks for everything you do' to NHS workers by businesses giving them discounts, and more plans for increasing capacity.
Apologies if it looked like I was being patronising. I wasn't, but it did look like it.
My frustration was borne out of the fact that you were feeling the need to disagree with me when it is (now) clear that we have rather similar viewpoints. I felt that was my lack of being sufficiently clear in what i was saying, rather than anything else.
I find the whole "herd immunity" bit baffling-if there really is much to be gained by it, why are they not testing all health workers as a major priority now? Why are we not being told how long any immunity may last?
This Government is in a difficult position. But I don't like the way that (today, particularly) they seem to be trying to attach blame to the general public for not following the rules that they haven't actually given us.
I think that this Government are (understandably) unwilling to go into too much detail about capacity problems.
Thanks Phil for your measured response. Yes, some crossed wires. I agree with a lot of what youâve now clarified. I was initially questioning to better understand the view.
Like a lot of poker players, I like Maths. Which is why, in the face of the worst health crisis in 100 years, i am becoming increasingly annoyed with "experts" continually giving us what they KNOW to be completely bogus figures.
1. The 233 "deaths" "from" coronavirus.
They are nothing of the sort, and they know that. They are 233 people who have died WITH coronavirus. That's not the same thing. some will have died because of it, but others (like thousands of deaths every year) die because pneumonia creates the final step in an inevitable pattern.
So-for example-in a typical year, 8,000 people die because of flu. Many more thousands die with flu, but they calculate the extra deaths. You know, like you would expect ANY scientist to do.
2. The current status of people who they say have the virus.
Today (like every day) we are given an update on active and closed cases. "Active"? Today, there are 4,672 "mild" and 20 "serious" cases. And (typically) close to 100 people will die. And yet that 20 figure never moves. And "Chief Scientists" don't appear to notice.
"Closed" cases? 326. 93 recovered, and 233 died. When they are SURE (and I believe them) that the mortality rate is between 0.5% and 1%. When their rubbish figures are showing a mortality rate of about 70%.
3. 5,018 current cases
Really? Do the Maths.
If 233 have died, then, on the 0.5%-1% figures, it is not the case that c.35,000 HAVE the disease. It is that c.35,000 have already RECOVERED from it, or are known to have it and have a 0% chance of dying. You can't include people who currently have it, cos they are not completed statistics.
IF only 5,000 currently have the virus, it would be safe to see your elderly relatives. But, logically, the figure is WAAAAY higher.
Either we have scientists who cannot understand basic maths, or they are being told to give us figures that they know fine well are wrong.
Very interesting, appriciate the time taken to explain this.
I can't imagine the confusion if Diane Abbot was crunching the numbers
Like a lot of poker players, I like Maths. Which is why, in the face of the worst health crisis in 100 years, i am becoming increasingly annoyed with "experts" continually giving us what they KNOW to be completely bogus figures.
1. The 233 "deaths" "from" coronavirus.
They are nothing of the sort, and they know that. They are 233 people who have died WITH coronavirus. That's not the same thing. some will have died because of it, but others (like thousands of deaths every year) die because pneumonia creates the final step in an inevitable pattern.
So-for example-in a typical year, 8,000 people die because of flu. Many more thousands die with flu, but they calculate the extra deaths. You know, like you would expect ANY scientist to do.
2. The current status of people who they say have the virus.
Today (like every day) we are given an update on active and closed cases. "Active"? Today, there are 4,672 "mild" and 20 "serious" cases. And (typically) close to 100 people will die. And yet that 20 figure never moves. And "Chief Scientists" don't appear to notice.
"Closed" cases? 326. 93 recovered, and 233 died. When they are SURE (and I believe them) that the mortality rate is between 0.5% and 1%. When their rubbish figures are showing a mortality rate of about 70%.
3. 5,018 current cases
Really? Do the Maths.
If 233 have died, then, on the 0.5%-1% figures, it is not the case that c.35,000 HAVE the disease. It is that c.35,000 have already RECOVERED from it, or are known to have it and have a 0% chance of dying. You can't include people who currently have it, cos they are not completed statistics.
IF only 5,000 currently have the virus, it would be safe to see your elderly relatives. But, logically, the figure is WAAAAY higher.
Either we have scientists who cannot understand basic maths, or they are being told to give us figures that they know fine well are wrong.
Very interesting, appriciate the time taken to explain this.
I can't imagine the confusion if Diane Abbot was crunching the numbers
Well it definitely wouldn't be called COVID-19 probably COVID-2586104...
Boris still not being taken seriously by younger people or shoppers. Only when it hits home by someone in their family being infected or dying will they take notice.
Boris Johnson faces Commons revolt over emergency coronavirus laws
Cross-party MPs will mount a Commons revolt over emergency coronavirus legislation that would hand sweeping powers to the government for two years. Former Tory cabinet ministers David Davis and Andrew Mitchell have signed a cross-party amendment to curb the emergency powers for the government after 12 months. The move presents a headache for Boris Johnson, who is hoping to fast-track the legislation through parliament within days without a vote.
The legislation includes powers for police to detain people with coronavirus and for care providers to lower their standards to prioritise resources.
âLiberal Democrats are therefore seeking cross-party support for our proposal to limit the new powers to three months, after which they would have to be renewed by a vote of the countryâs democratically elected MPs.â He said extending the Brexit transition period would allow the government to focus on the coronavirus outbreak and end uncertainty for businesses and citizens. Labour MP Chris Bryant has also sought to amend the bill to allow MPs a vote on the legislation every two months, which has cross-party support.
Coronavirus: NHS paramedic âevicted by landladyâ on WhatsApp over fears heâll contract virus
An NHS paramedic has revealed he was evicted from his home by a landlady who feared he would contract coronavirus. Joseph Hoar, a paramedic for South Western Ambulance Service, tweeted on Saturday night a screen grab of a message he received over WhatsApp. âJoe on reflection I am now super nervous about having someone from the NHS here,â the message read. âAs itâs only a matter of time before [you are] in contact with the virus. Can [you] organise an Airbnb and collect your stuff tomorrow. âSorry I normally would never do this but itâs not worth the risk. Iâll charge you for the week and refund everything. Hope [you] understand.â
I try to be a good friend, especially to family, part of the âbeing a good friendâ in my eyes is to tell someone that they are being a selfish d..k., hopefully they can feel comfortable saying the same to me, my wife and children seem to be VERY good friends with me đ. One of my relatives had their wedding anniversary at the weekend, they originally were going abroad, but of course in the current climate that was cancelled by the tour operators.
Comments
My frustration was borne out of the fact that you were feeling the need to disagree with me when it is (now) clear that we have rather similar viewpoints. I felt that was my lack of being sufficiently clear in what i was saying, rather than anything else.
I find the whole "herd immunity" bit baffling-if there really is much to be gained by it, why are they not testing all health workers as a major priority now? Why are we not being told how long any immunity may last?
This Government is in a difficult position. But I don't like the way that (today, particularly) they seem to be trying to attach blame to the general public for not following the rules that they haven't actually given us.
I think that this Government are (understandably) unwilling to go into too much detail about capacity problems.
Hope you, family and friends are ok.
https://www.kentonline.co.uk/thanet/news/holes-drilled-in-tyres-as-six-ambulances-attacked-224229/?fbclid=IwAR3n_ypdxmfB07FEqW1_8C-b_7qd7UH8irSsSsoVr2TEcS1Yn4uMuiD7NX8
I can't imagine the confusion if Diane Abbot was crunching the numbers
Cross-party MPs will mount a Commons revolt over emergency coronavirus legislation that would hand sweeping powers to the government for two years.
Former Tory cabinet ministers David Davis and Andrew Mitchell have signed a cross-party amendment to curb the emergency powers for the government after 12 months.
The move presents a headache for Boris Johnson, who is hoping to fast-track the legislation through parliament within days without a vote.
The legislation includes powers for police to detain people with coronavirus and for care providers to lower their standards to prioritise resources.
âLiberal Democrats are therefore seeking cross-party support for our proposal to limit the new powers to three months, after which they would have to be renewed by a vote of the countryâs democratically elected MPs.â
He said extending the Brexit transition period would allow the government to focus on the coronavirus outbreak and end uncertainty for businesses and citizens.
Labour MP Chris Bryant has also sought to amend the bill to allow MPs a vote on the legislation every two months, which has cross-party support.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/boris-johnson-faces-commons-revolt-over-emergency-coronavirus-laws/ar-BB11vP2p?ocid=spartandhp
An NHS paramedic has revealed he was evicted from his home by a landlady who feared he would contract coronavirus.
Joseph Hoar, a paramedic for South Western Ambulance Service, tweeted on Saturday night a screen grab of a message he received over WhatsApp.
âJoe on reflection I am now super nervous about having someone from the NHS here,â the message read.
âAs itâs only a matter of time before [you are] in contact with the virus. Can [you] organise an Airbnb and collect your stuff tomorrow.
âSorry I normally would never do this but itâs not worth the risk. Iâll charge you for the week and refund everything. Hope [you] understand.â
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-nhs-paramedic-evicted-landlady-202012385.html
No 10 denies claim Dominic Cummings argued to 'let old people die'
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/22/no-10-denies-claim-dominic-cummings-argued-to-let-old-people-die
Morrisons have stopped delivering to my address.
Tesco only go up to 6th April, but there are no deliveries available.
I cant even look at the Sainsbury site, because they are too busy.
That's why you can see scrums of people in supermarkets on the news, spreading viruses.
Pi55 ups in breweries.
Incredible really, when you consider that the easiest way to stop the panic buying is by restricting on line orders.
One of my relatives had their wedding anniversary at the weekend, they originally were going abroad, but of course in the current climate that was cancelled by the tour operators.
Their solution was to go on a road trip to Cornwall.
Admittedly, rather than just coming out and saying â Wtf are you doingâ? I tried the sarcasm route, I messaged â Howâs the non essential travel goingâ? ( On their FB post)
They seemed to be rather blasĂ©, replying â Itâs absolutely essentialâ
I sighed, I was told by my good lady â Tom , donât get involved, you know what they are like, they wonât listenâ.
Next day, they posted a pic of them in a pub
I sighed some more.
Next day they posted they were doing a â Leisurely stroll in the Brecon Beacons on the way homeâ
They were getting the desired â Likesâ and â Lovesâ
I must admit, I had enough of sighing.
I was THE ONLY person who posted a negative comment.
I am now blocked from their â Friendsâ list
If you are a true friend to someone, tell them when they are being a d...k..