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It's coming

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  • Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 171,174
    Essexphil said:

    chilling said:

    I think it’s a cheap shot to criticize the Government during these times.
    Boris is just the mouthpiece, which is very obvious, as the scientists and the academics are the main guys supplying what they think is the correct way forward.
    I thought better of Phil until he came out with that. Lots of criticism,from the other thread, but never any ideas. I wonder why? Blinded by the loathing of Boris and this government I suspect.
    On that rather long post I made on the morning of the budget, there are some correct calls.
    A certain person just moans, never has any ideas,can’t accept a different point of view.
    That’s why you appeared on Mark’s thread.
    Anyway, I’ve had enough,so I’ll leave you to yourselves. Have fun.

    It's not "cheap shots"-it is attempting to evaluate the biggest peacetime threat since 1918.

    Experts need accurate data in order to utilise their expertise. It's not there. 2 examples:-

    1. When we had a reported 2,000 cases, the main expert was asked if that figure was accurate-he said no. When asked if the true figure could be 55,000, he replied that that was entirely possible. If experts have no idea of the scale of infection, they cannot plan effectively
    2. All of the other reported figures are hopelessly inaccurate (with the probable exception of deaths). When official figures tell me 20 people are in a serious condition, and 35 died I am sure that the 20 is completely wrong. Or that 1% will die, but currently more people have died (104) than recovered (65)

    No ideas? well, i was rather hoping that if we were going to rely on experts, we could give them meaningful figures to work with. That's not a criticism of this particular Government-it is a criticism of every Government since 1918, as we have no effective system for reporting. We have no disaster plan able to provide meaningful statistics.

    2 ideas that seem blindingly obvious to me:-

    1. Every household that hasn't got 1, should be entitled to a free thermometer. How many thousands of people are self-isolating without having taken their temperature?

    2. If London really is 3-4 weeks ahead of the rest of the UK (as experts consistently say) then why (when experts all say all of this is time-critical) has London not got any different measures, particularly in relation to people commuting from outside London? Commuting to London is clearly totally different (from a health perspective) than to other major UK cities.
    Good post @Essexphil.

    And if you want some really sombre reading, take a look at this, which is a report issued by Imperial College. Some staggering numbers in there.



    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

  • lucy4lucy4 Member Posts: 8,131
    This programme aired on Tuesday 17th at 12:15am,it should've been aired at prime time,very interesting and informative as to how it evolved and was then transmitted to the world,all started by man in America.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0blmn5l/the-flu-that-killed-50-million
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 36,462
    chilling said:

    I think it’s a cheap shot to criticize the Government during these times.
    Boris is just the mouthpiece, which is very obvious, as the scientists and the academics are the main guys supplying what they think is the correct way forward.
    I thought better of Phil until he came out with that. Lots of criticism,from the other thread, but never any ideas. I wonder why? Blinded by the loathing of Boris and this government I suspect.
    On that rather long post I made on the morning of the budget, there are some correct calls.
    A certain person just moans, never has any ideas,can’t accept a different point of view.
    That’s why you appeared on Mark’s thread.
    Anyway, I’ve had enough,so I’ll leave you to yourselves. Have fun.

    You are funny, albeit unintentionally.

    I have a number of ideas, but am unable to influence The Government from this thread.
    I am happy to debate the different points of view regarding the Brexit deal, yet you don't seem to have an opinion, and avoid questions at all costs.

    It is impossible to have any debate on a particular topic, when the other side refuses to air their views, or don't really have any.

    I believe that The Government is adopting the wrong approach to the free trade deal, many people have this view, but would not see voicing this opinion as moaning. Most would see it as a debate.

    You make the point that I cant accept different points of view, yet it is you that constantly flounces off thread after thread, and are very quick to criticise other peoples posts, as evidenced by your post above.

    Mark, I believe started what I consider to be a serious, sincere thread in good faith, yet you chose to take the pi55.
    I don't think it was Marks intention to pray for anyone that just disagrees with your opinions.

    Criticising The Government is far more constructive than blindly following Boris, and thinking that he is some sort of superhero.

    The coronavirus problem started in January, yet it takes until the middle of March for the genius to decide that we need thousands more of the most vital piece of equipment for treating the virus.

    You would have hoped that such a clever man might have connected the fact that a virus that affects the respiratory system and the purchase of thousands more ventilators, much earlier.

    How can you call The PM, a mouthpiece?
    He is the leader.
    The buck stops with him on everything.
    Particularly any emergency.
    It is the job of the leader to take advice, then make a decision, based on the advice.
    Advisers are not supposed to be running the country.

    The point I was trying to make on the Brexit thread was that Boris is taking an approach to the Brexit free trade deal that will cause more damage to the economy.
    This damage could be lessened by taking a different approach.
    When I have posted regarding the above, you have constantly brought into the debate lots of stuff that is completely irrelevant.
    The approach that Boris is taking is a topic worthy of debate.
    Whether things like coronavirus, interest rates, etc have an effect on the economy, these effects will be in addition to the effects of his Brexit trade deal approach.
    To argue for instance that his damaging approach may be offset by an adjustment of interest rates is irrelevant to the debate about his approach.
    It would be foolish to argue that even though Boris had chosen a damaging path, this could somehow be improved by adjusting interest rates.
    When a less damaging path could also be improved by adjusting interest rates.
    Therefore the interest rates become a red herring, and are irrelevant.
    Many of your opinions expressed on the Brexit thread are red herrings.

    This is really obvious from your determined avoidance of questions.
    I wondered if this was caused by your lack of understanding of the Boris position.

    Many members of the public are frustrated by politicians being interviewed, and not providing answers to questions, or providing an answer to a completely different question from the one that was asked.

    Are you in some sort of training to become a politician?

    I believe Boris has been misleading the public over his position.

    I wont be posting any more on here until Big Ben is fixed.

    Boris cant keep his own Father out of the pub.

    Even Stanley doesn't take him seriously.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 36,462
    goldon said:

    I see, sinking ship and you row away in the lifeboat. cough! tart

    A pattern of behaviour for which he has previous convictions.
  • goldongoldon Member Posts: 9,154
    Some people need Thorn in their side to behave ... he's my mentor your tormentor.
  • madprofmadprof Member Posts: 3,461
    mumsie said:
    I wish 2 guys were running the country instead of Bojo and his band of sycophants...so clear and articulate
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 36,462
    goldon said:

    Some people need Thorn in their side to behave ... he's my mentor your tormentor.


    goldon Member Posts: 4,057
    08:43
    I see, sinking ship and you row away in the lifeboat. cough! tart
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 36,462
    edited March 2020
    Essexphil said:

    chilling said:

    I think it’s a cheap shot to criticize the Government during these times.
    Boris is just the mouthpiece, which is very obvious, as the scientists and the academics are the main guys supplying what they think is the correct way forward.
    I thought better of Phil until he came out with that. Lots of criticism,from the other thread, but never any ideas. I wonder why? Blinded by the loathing of Boris and this government I suspect.
    On that rather long post I made on the morning of the budget, there are some correct calls.
    A certain person just moans, never has any ideas,can’t accept a different point of view.
    That’s why you appeared on Mark’s thread.
    Anyway, I’ve had enough,so I’ll leave you to yourselves. Have fun.

    It's not "cheap shots"-it is attempting to evaluate the biggest peacetime threat since 1918.

    Experts need accurate data in order to utilise their expertise. It's not there. 2 examples:-

    1. When we had a reported 2,000 cases, the main expert was asked if that figure was accurate-he said no. When asked if the true figure could be 55,000, he replied that that was entirely possible. If experts have no idea of the scale of infection, they cannot plan effectively
    2. All of the other reported figures are hopelessly inaccurate (with the probable exception of deaths). When official figures tell me 20 people are in a serious condition, and 35 died I am sure that the 20 is completely wrong. Or that 1% will die, but currently more people have died (104) than recovered (65)

    No ideas? well, i was rather hoping that if we were going to rely on experts, we could give them meaningful figures to work with. That's not a criticism of this particular Government-it is a criticism of every Government since 1918, as we have no effective system for reporting. We have no disaster plan able to provide meaningful statistics.

    2 ideas that seem blindingly obvious to me:-

    1. Every household that hasn't got 1, should be entitled to a free thermometer. How many thousands of people are self-isolating without having taken their temperature?

    2. If London really is 3-4 weeks ahead of the rest of the UK (as experts consistently say) then why (when experts all say all of this is time-critical) has London not got any different measures, particularly in relation to people commuting from outside London? Commuting to London is clearly totally different (from a health perspective) than to other major UK cities.
    There was a doctor on Newsnight last night, and he was scathing about the protection being offered to frontline staff, and the lack of tests available to NHS staff.

    So they have insufficient protection against the virus compared to other countries,

    The lack of testing means that many staff are at home self isolating, that don't need to, and others are working and spreading the virus, when they obviously shouldn't be.

  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 36,462
    goldon said:

    Some people need Thorn in their side to behave ... he's my mentor your tormentor.

    Don't think so.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 36,462
    edited March 2020
    Tikay10 said:

    Essexphil said:

    chilling said:

    I think it’s a cheap shot to criticize the Government during these times.
    Boris is just the mouthpiece, which is very obvious, as the scientists and the academics are the main guys supplying what they think is the correct way forward.
    I thought better of Phil until he came out with that. Lots of criticism,from the other thread, but never any ideas. I wonder why? Blinded by the loathing of Boris and this government I suspect.
    On that rather long post I made on the morning of the budget, there are some correct calls.
    A certain person just moans, never has any ideas,can’t accept a different point of view.
    That’s why you appeared on Mark’s thread.
    Anyway, I’ve had enough,so I’ll leave you to yourselves. Have fun.

    It's not "cheap shots"-it is attempting to evaluate the biggest peacetime threat since 1918.

    Experts need accurate data in order to utilise their expertise. It's not there. 2 examples:-

    1. When we had a reported 2,000 cases, the main expert was asked if that figure was accurate-he said no. When asked if the true figure could be 55,000, he replied that that was entirely possible. If experts have no idea of the scale of infection, they cannot plan effectively
    2. All of the other reported figures are hopelessly inaccurate (with the probable exception of deaths). When official figures tell me 20 people are in a serious condition, and 35 died I am sure that the 20 is completely wrong. Or that 1% will die, but currently more people have died (104) than recovered (65)

    No ideas? well, i was rather hoping that if we were going to rely on experts, we could give them meaningful figures to work with. That's not a criticism of this particular Government-it is a criticism of every Government since 1918, as we have no effective system for reporting. We have no disaster plan able to provide meaningful statistics.

    2 ideas that seem blindingly obvious to me:-

    1. Every household that hasn't got 1, should be entitled to a free thermometer. How many thousands of people are self-isolating without having taken their temperature?

    2. If London really is 3-4 weeks ahead of the rest of the UK (as experts consistently say) then why (when experts all say all of this is time-critical) has London not got any different measures, particularly in relation to people commuting from outside London? Commuting to London is clearly totally different (from a health perspective) than to other major UK cities.
    Good post @Essexphil.

    And if you want some really sombre reading, take a look at this, which is a report issued by Imperial College. Some staggering numbers in there.



    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

    Wales has a population of 3 million, of which 70,000 are particularly vulnerable, they have been doing 100 tests per day.
  • dragon1964dragon1964 Member Posts: 3,054
    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

    I read this.
    Hard work at times and I don't pretend to understand it all but it does give an insight into what is predicted going forward.

    Stay safe.

  • Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 171,174

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

    I read this.
    Hard work at times and I don't pretend to understand it all but it does give an insight into what is predicted going forward.

    Stay safe.

    @dragon1964

    Yes, I read that this morning & Posted it somewhere on the thread, & I think I mentioned it in the Results Thread.

    To be honest, I rather wish I had not read it, it scared the life out of me.
  • lucy4lucy4 Member Posts: 8,131
    My Niece had cause to ring the hotline earlier due to her symptoms,they ask a list of questions and depending on your answers 'decide' whether you're infected or not! They will only test her if health deteriorates,so she's now sat at home not knowing if she has or hasn't contracted it.That raises the question,that if they're not testing until fully developed,then the number of cases being stated will be hugely underestimated.


  • Allan23Allan23 Member Posts: 876
    ^The number of cases is clearly welllll under reported (due to the lack of testing). Seems like both bad and good news - people will die, because of the lack of testing and the stress on the NHS. At the same time, the death rate of the virus is actually a lot lower than the scary 5/6% figures reported, as that data can only come from confirmed cases. A crumb of comfort maybe, maybe not
  • madprofmadprof Member Posts: 3,461
    Allan23 said:

    ^The number of cases is clearly welllll under reported (due to the lack of testing). Seems like both bad and good news - people will die, because of the lack of testing and the stress on the NHS. At the same time, the death rate of the virus is actually a lot lower than the scary 5/6% figures reported, as that data can only come from confirmed cases. A crumb of comfort maybe, maybe not

    Regretfully, I feel some of the decisions about the overall approach are part of a DomCum social engineering strategy....

    wheat and chaff, old and young, rich and poor...those decision makers-not the elected buffoons- don’t live on our streets, with food banks and child poverty, with social and elderly care needs in crisis to name just some of socially deprived areas the austerity we have had for at least 10 years has brought about

    Lest we forget they Brexit campaign wasn’t about anything other than DomCum winning...
  • dragon1964dragon1964 Member Posts: 3,054
    Tikay10 said:

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

    I read this.
    Hard work at times and I don't pretend to understand it all but it does give an insight into what is predicted going forward.

    Stay safe.

    @dragon1964

    Yes, I read that this morning & Posted it somewhere on the thread, & I think I mentioned it in the Results Thread.

    To be honest, I rather wish I had not read it, it scared the life out of me.
    Sorry, I should have said I followed the link you posted at the top of this page.
  • bbMikebbMike Member Posts: 3,720
    madprof said:

    Allan23 said:

    ^The number of cases is clearly welllll under reported (due to the lack of testing). Seems like both bad and good news - people will die, because of the lack of testing and the stress on the NHS. At the same time, the death rate of the virus is actually a lot lower than the scary 5/6% figures reported, as that data can only come from confirmed cases. A crumb of comfort maybe, maybe not

    Regretfully, I feel some of the decisions about the overall approach are part of a DomCum social engineering strategy....

    wheat and chaff, old and young, rich and poor...those decision makers-not the elected buffoons- don’t live on our streets, with food banks and child poverty, with social and elderly care needs in crisis to name just some of socially deprived areas the austerity we have had for at least 10 years has brought about

    Lest we forget they Brexit campaign wasn’t about anything other than DomCum winning...
    You should read the Imperial paper, you soon get a sense of what decisions they’re having to make.
  • goldongoldon Member Posts: 9,154
    Real Madrid striker Luka Jovic could face charges in Serbia after skipping self-isolation in Spain for a 'party in Belgrade'
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