Looks like it will come down to two who reach the threshold - Sunak & Johnson.
And then it goes to the Tory Party Membership.... the very people who voted for car-crash Truss last time.
God help us.
Recent polls of the membership showed that a majority wanted Boris to replace Truss. Unfortunately.
I still don't believe the Members are going to have a say. There is insufficient time for a meaningful, transparent and secure vote.
My guess is that Round 2 will set the bar at 180 MPs votes. Failing that, a deal was secretly done before this process even started...
Once they are down to two candidates, which could be on Monday, before the MPs vote. Then an indicative vote will take place by the MPs. This is apparently only to indicate to the membership the MPs preferred candidate.
If this was not the case, and the maximum of three reached the threshold. Then the MPs vote, and the candidate with the lowest number of votes is eliminated, followed by the above.
So there is no real point in raising the bar.
Although I am certain some pressure will be brought to bear, and the runner up will probably be offered a big job on condition that they pull out, in order to avoid the members getting a vote. I am not sure how successful this would be, particularly if it was Boris because I am certain he will still fancy his chances with the members, even after finishing second.
Looks like it will come down to two who reach the threshold - Sunak & Johnson.
And then it goes to the Tory Party Membership.... the very people who voted for car-crash Truss last time.
God help us.
Recent polls of the membership showed that a majority wanted Boris to replace Truss. Unfortunately.
I still don't believe the Members are going to have a say. There is insufficient time for a meaningful, transparent and secure vote.
My guess is that Round 2 will set the bar at 180 MPs votes. Failing that, a deal was secretly done before this process even started...
Once they are down to two candidates, which could be on Monday, before the MPs vote. Then an indicative vote will take place by the MPs. This is apparently only to indicate to the membership the MPs preferred candidate.
If this was not the case, and the maximum of three reached the threshold. Then the MPs vote, and the candidate with the lowest number of votes is eliminated, followed by the above.
So there is no real point in raising the bar.
Although I am certain some pressure will be brought to bear, and the runner up will probably be offered a big job on condition that they pull out, in order to avoid the members getting a vote. I am not sure how successful this would be, particularly if it was Boris because I am certain he will still fancy his chances with the members, even after finishing second.
There isn't going to be a Members vote.
Next Monday will provide clarity. The MPs do not trust their Members to choose wisely.
On Monday, they are going to announce how the new PM will be in place by Friday. As things stand, in 4 days or less, the Tories claim to be able to do the following:-
1. Count the 1st MPs preferences 2. Have a new MPs vote 3. Tell Members the process of how they may vote. Email? Phone? Carrier pigeon? 4. Have a security system in place to ensure votes are valid-as an example-do they have a valid email or mobile address for all their Members? 5. Provide info on policy so Members can make an informed choice 6. Collate and publish the Members votes to ensure that the loser is satisfied that justice was done 7. Inform Winner and ensure they are ready with their new Cabinet
So-4 days to do something that has never been done before. In a snap poll unlike anything before. Shorter, directionless, open to abuse on an industrial scale.
If they could achieve something as complex as that, the Country wouldn't be in such a mess.
Part of me hopes that is really going to happen. Because, if it is true, it manages to be as stupid as anything Truss ever did.
Looks like it will come down to two who reach the threshold - Sunak & Johnson.
And then it goes to the Tory Party Membership.... the very people who voted for car-crash Truss last time.
God help us.
Recent polls of the membership showed that a majority wanted Boris to replace Truss. Unfortunately.
I still don't believe the Members are going to have a say. There is insufficient time for a meaningful, transparent and secure vote.
My guess is that Round 2 will set the bar at 180 MPs votes. Failing that, a deal was secretly done before this process even started...
Once they are down to two candidates, which could be on Monday, before the MPs vote. Then an indicative vote will take place by the MPs. This is apparently only to indicate to the membership the MPs preferred candidate.
If this was not the case, and the maximum of three reached the threshold. Then the MPs vote, and the candidate with the lowest number of votes is eliminated, followed by the above.
So there is no real point in raising the bar.
Although I am certain some pressure will be brought to bear, and the runner up will probably be offered a big job on condition that they pull out, in order to avoid the members getting a vote. I am not sure how successful this would be, particularly if it was Boris because I am certain he will still fancy his chances with the members, even after finishing second.
There isn't going to be a Members vote.
Next Monday will provide clarity. The MPs do not trust their Members to choose wisely.
On Monday, they are going to announce how the new PM will be in place by Friday. As things stand, in 4 days or less, the Tories claim to be able to do the following:-
1. Count the 1st MPs preferences 2. Have a new MPs vote 3. Tell Members the process of how they may vote. Email? Phone? Carrier pigeon? 4. Have a security system in place to ensure votes are valid-as an example-do they have a valid email or mobile address for all their Members? 5. Provide info on policy so Members can make an informed choice 6. Collate and publish the Members votes to ensure that the loser is satisfied that justice was done 7. Inform Winner and ensure they are ready with their new Cabinet
So-4 days to do something that has never been done before. In a snap poll unlike anything before. Shorter, directionless, open to abuse on an industrial scale.
If they could achieve something as complex as that, the Country wouldn't be in such a mess.
Part of me hopes that is really going to happen. Because, if it is true, it manages to be as stupid as anything Truss ever did.
I understand that the Tory Parliamentary Party would prefer only one candidate to reach the threshold, and a coronation on Monday. As Rishi appears to already have hit the target, the only way this could occur is if Penny and Boris both failed. My feeling is that Boris and Rishi will both qualify for the ballot. The Parliamentary Party voting will be over with on Monday.
My point is that whatever they may want to happen, both candidates may feel that they could win in a members ballot from second position in the MPs ballot on Monday. Boris because of recent polling amongst members, and Rishi because of the accuracy of his predictions regarding the Liz Truss fairy tale economics, despite losing in the members ballot last time.. It may therefore be difficult to discourage either of them.
So I think the only way they avoid a members ballot, is by Rishi winning in a landslide and both the others failing to reach the 100 threshold. Although what the Tory Party want, and what they get, on this occasion, may be two different things. We will have to wait and see.
What planet are the Tories who are pushing for Boris to return on? Is it the same Boris who lied to the Queen, lied to parliament, voted out by his own party, and smirked through countless gotcha moments. I despair at the sheer b.loody arrogance of the Tories , who have zero sympathy for the public who are in desperate need.
Looks like it will come down to two who reach the threshold - Sunak & Johnson.
And then it goes to the Tory Party Membership.... the very people who voted for car-crash Truss last time.
God help us.
Recent polls of the membership showed that a majority wanted Boris to replace Truss. Unfortunately.
I still don't believe the Members are going to have a say. There is insufficient time for a meaningful, transparent and secure vote.
My guess is that Round 2 will set the bar at 180 MPs votes. Failing that, a deal was secretly done before this process even started...
Once they are down to two candidates, which could be on Monday, before the MPs vote. Then an indicative vote will take place by the MPs. This is apparently only to indicate to the membership the MPs preferred candidate.
If this was not the case, and the maximum of three reached the threshold. Then the MPs vote, and the candidate with the lowest number of votes is eliminated, followed by the above.
So there is no real point in raising the bar.
Although I am certain some pressure will be brought to bear, and the runner up will probably be offered a big job on condition that they pull out, in order to avoid the members getting a vote. I am not sure how successful this would be, particularly if it was Boris because I am certain he will still fancy his chances with the members, even after finishing second.
There isn't going to be a Members vote.
Next Monday will provide clarity. The MPs do not trust their Members to choose wisely.
On Monday, they are going to announce how the new PM will be in place by Friday. As things stand, in 4 days or less, the Tories claim to be able to do the following:-
1. Count the 1st MPs preferences 2. Have a new MPs vote 3. Tell Members the process of how they may vote. Email? Phone? Carrier pigeon? 4. Have a security system in place to ensure votes are valid-as an example-do they have a valid email or mobile address for all their Members? 5. Provide info on policy so Members can make an informed choice 6. Collate and publish the Members votes to ensure that the loser is satisfied that justice was done 7. Inform Winner and ensure they are ready with their new Cabinet
So-4 days to do something that has never been done before. In a snap poll unlike anything before. Shorter, directionless, open to abuse on an industrial scale.
If they could achieve something as complex as that, the Country wouldn't be in such a mess.
Part of me hopes that is really going to happen. Because, if it is true, it manages to be as stupid as anything Truss ever did.
I understand that the Tory Parliamentary Party would prefer only one candidate to reach the threshold, and a coronation on Monday. As Rishi appears to already have hit the target, the only way this could occur is if Penny and Boris both failed. My feeling is that Boris and Rishi will both qualify for the ballot. The Parliamentary Party voting will be over with on Monday.
My point is that whatever they may want to happen, both candidates may feel that they could win in a members ballot from second position in the MPs ballot on Monday. Boris because of recent polling amongst members, and Rishi because of the accuracy of his predictions regarding the Liz Truss fairy tale economics, despite losing in the members ballot last time.. It may therefore be difficult to discourage either of them.
So I think the only way they avoid a members ballot, is by Rishi winning in a landslide and both the others failing to reach the 100 threshold. Although what the Tory Party want, and what they get, on this occasion, may be two different things. We will have to wait and see.
I see the logic in all of that.
The thing is, the Tories have just followed this sort of election process, and it was a total disaster. The MPs largely voted about 50% pro-Rishi, 50% everyone else, and the Idiot triumphed. White Woman bearing "gifts" that were not only illusory, but caused massive damage.
MPs are unlikely to be prepared to risk all that again. How is it going to look if the massive majority of the country want an Election, the majority of MPs want Sunak, and the Members just vote in Johnson. It's really not a good look. The next Election could see the Tories being destroyed.
Brady is no fool. If he thinks this will all be resolved 6 days from now, it is for a reason. He's just not telling us what it is.
The median age for Tory Members is what? 73? If you really only had 8 days to persuade them to vote in a way that was meaningful, would you spend the first 4 days telling them absolutely nothing? Like how to register to vote, what security protocols will be necessary (think every 85-yr-old has a passport or driving licence, and/or knows how to upload them?).
I'm not saying it won't happen. What I am saying is that it will likely descend into farce. Which would cost a lot of MPs, and Sir Graham Brady, their jobs.
What planet are the Tories who are pushing for Boris to return on? Is it the same Boris who lied to the Queen, lied to parliament, voted out by his own party, and smirked through countless gotcha moments. I despair at the sheer b.loody arrogance of the Tories , who have zero sympathy for the public who are in desperate need.
Some of the Cabinet Ministers that resigned and contributed to his downfall, are now backing him.
Looks like it will come down to two who reach the threshold - Sunak & Johnson.
And then it goes to the Tory Party Membership.... the very people who voted for car-crash Truss last time.
God help us.
Recent polls of the membership showed that a majority wanted Boris to replace Truss. Unfortunately.
I still don't believe the Members are going to have a say. There is insufficient time for a meaningful, transparent and secure vote.
My guess is that Round 2 will set the bar at 180 MPs votes. Failing that, a deal was secretly done before this process even started...
Once they are down to two candidates, which could be on Monday, before the MPs vote. Then an indicative vote will take place by the MPs. This is apparently only to indicate to the membership the MPs preferred candidate.
If this was not the case, and the maximum of three reached the threshold. Then the MPs vote, and the candidate with the lowest number of votes is eliminated, followed by the above.
So there is no real point in raising the bar.
Although I am certain some pressure will be brought to bear, and the runner up will probably be offered a big job on condition that they pull out, in order to avoid the members getting a vote. I am not sure how successful this would be, particularly if it was Boris because I am certain he will still fancy his chances with the members, even after finishing second.
There isn't going to be a Members vote.
Next Monday will provide clarity. The MPs do not trust their Members to choose wisely.
On Monday, they are going to announce how the new PM will be in place by Friday. As things stand, in 4 days or less, the Tories claim to be able to do the following:-
1. Count the 1st MPs preferences 2. Have a new MPs vote 3. Tell Members the process of how they may vote. Email? Phone? Carrier pigeon? 4. Have a security system in place to ensure votes are valid-as an example-do they have a valid email or mobile address for all their Members? 5. Provide info on policy so Members can make an informed choice 6. Collate and publish the Members votes to ensure that the loser is satisfied that justice was done 7. Inform Winner and ensure they are ready with their new Cabinet
So-4 days to do something that has never been done before. In a snap poll unlike anything before. Shorter, directionless, open to abuse on an industrial scale.
If they could achieve something as complex as that, the Country wouldn't be in such a mess.
Part of me hopes that is really going to happen. Because, if it is true, it manages to be as stupid as anything Truss ever did.
I understand that the Tory Parliamentary Party would prefer only one candidate to reach the threshold, and a coronation on Monday. As Rishi appears to already have hit the target, the only way this could occur is if Penny and Boris both failed. My feeling is that Boris and Rishi will both qualify for the ballot. The Parliamentary Party voting will be over with on Monday.
My point is that whatever they may want to happen, both candidates may feel that they could win in a members ballot from second position in the MPs ballot on Monday. Boris because of recent polling amongst members, and Rishi because of the accuracy of his predictions regarding the Liz Truss fairy tale economics, despite losing in the members ballot last time.. It may therefore be difficult to discourage either of them.
So I think the only way they avoid a members ballot, is by Rishi winning in a landslide and both the others failing to reach the 100 threshold. Although what the Tory Party want, and what they get, on this occasion, may be two different things. We will have to wait and see.
I see the logic in all of that.
The thing is, the Tories have just followed this sort of election process, and it was a total disaster. The MPs largely voted about 50% pro-Rishi, 50% everyone else, and the Idiot triumphed. White Woman bearing "gifts" that were not only illusory, but caused massive damage.
MPs are unlikely to be prepared to risk all that again. How is it going to look if the massive majority of the country want an Election, the majority of MPs want Sunak, and the Members just vote in Johnson. It's really not a good look. The next Election could see the Tories being destroyed.
Brady is no fool. If he thinks this will all be resolved 6 days from now, it is for a reason. He's just not telling us what it is.
The median age for Tory Members is what? 73? If you really only had 8 days to persuade them to vote in a way that was meaningful, would you spend the first 4 days telling them absolutely nothing? Like how to register to vote, what security protocols will be necessary (think every 85-yr-old has a passport or driving licence, and/or knows how to upload them?).
I'm not saying it won't happen. What I am saying is that it will likely descend into farce. Which would cost a lot of MPs, and Sir Graham Brady, their jobs.
I completely understand what you are saying. Although I think that now they have set out the process, that it will be very, very, difficult to get out of. I think their only chance is if only one candidate reaches the threshold.
You would think that receiving a vote via email or text including a security code would not be too difficult, in 2022.
It is quite easy to see this process not turning out quite as had they hoped.
What planet are the Tories who are pushing for Boris to return on? Is it the same Boris who lied to the Queen, lied to parliament, voted out by his own party, and smirked through countless gotcha moments. I despair at the sheer b.loody arrogance of the Tories , who have zero sympathy for the public who are in desperate need.
Some of the Cabinet Ministers that resigned and contributed to his downfall, are now backing him.
I find that staggering. If Johnson is elected, the UK becomes a Hyena-flavoured Oxo cube. A laughing stock.
Meanwhile latest odds are
8/15 Sunak 15/8 Johnson 14/1 Mordaunt.
I'm sure I'm not the only one who thinks the Members aren't going to get a meaningful vote. Because I believe that (incredibly) Johnson would be considerably shorter.
Boris polarises opinion. You love him. Or hate him. Think the same is true for MPs. His supporters have come out early. Will he get to 100? Might be closer than people are assuming.
What planet are the Tories who are pushing for Boris to return on? Is it the same Boris who lied to the Queen, lied to parliament, voted out by his own party, and smirked through countless gotcha moments. I despair at the sheer b.loody arrogance of the Tories , who have zero sympathy for the public who are in desperate need.
Some of the Cabinet Ministers that resigned and contributed to his downfall, are now backing him.
When questioned this morning, one MP stated “ Boris has apologised, and let’s not forget he delivered the party a huge majority “ Obv meaning “ He got me my job, maybe he can persuade the gullible public to keep me in it . Staggering…..
What planet are the Tories who are pushing for Boris to return on? Is it the same Boris who lied to the Queen, lied to parliament, voted out by his own party, and smirked through countless gotcha moments. I despair at the sheer b.loody arrogance of the Tories , who have zero sympathy for the public who are in desperate need.
Some of the Cabinet Ministers that resigned and contributed to his downfall, are now backing him.
I find that staggering. If Johnson is elected, the UK becomes a Hyena-flavoured Oxo cube. A laughing stock.
Meanwhile latest odds are
8/15 Sunak 15/8 Johnson 14/1 Mordaunt.
I'm sure I'm not the only one who thinks the Members aren't going to get a meaningful vote. Because I believe that (incredibly) Johnson would be considerably shorter.
Boris polarises opinion. You love him. Or hate him. Think the same is true for MPs. His supporters have come out early. Will he get to 100? Might be closer than people are assuming.
I think he will shorten substantially on reaching the 100 threshold.
There is not a correlation between how the Parliamentary Party vote, and how the members vote, as proved by the recent leadership challenge. Most MPs voted for Rishi, yet most members voted for Truss. I could see this reoccurring with the MPs again voting for Rishi, and the members voting for Boris. I think it impossible to persuade the winner of the MPs vote to concede. Equally impossible to persuade the likely winner of the members vote to concede. The members have been promised a vote. This is now unavoidable. Unless of course only one candidate reaches the 100 threshold.
What planet are the Tories who are pushing for Boris to return on? Is it the same Boris who lied to the Queen, lied to parliament, voted out by his own party, and smirked through countless gotcha moments. I despair at the sheer b.loody arrogance of the Tories , who have zero sympathy for the public who are in desperate need.
Some of the Cabinet Ministers that resigned and contributed to his downfall, are now backing him.
When questioned this morning, one MP stated “ Boris has apologised, and let’s not forget he delivered the party a huge majority “ Obv meaning “ He got me my job, maybe he can persuade the gullible public to keep me in it . Staggering…..
Many are using the excuse that because he received a mandate from the electorate in 2019, which has 2 years to run, it is therefore not undemocratic for him to be reinstalled as PM without a General Election. Whereas it would be more difficult to justify the appointment of one of the others. The purpose of this is purely to justify the appointment of Boris, as the current state of the polls mean that they will avoid a GE like the plague, whoever they appoint.
They are obviously ignoring the possible outcome of the Privileges Committee Inquiry.
Is Jeremy Hunt unsackable?
Can either of them have any input in his upcoming financial event?
Will the markets see the appointment of Boris as a good idea?
Comments
My guess is that Round 2 will set the bar at 180 MPs votes. Failing that, a deal was secretly done before this process even started...
Then an indicative vote will take place by the MPs.
This is apparently only to indicate to the membership the MPs preferred candidate.
If this was not the case, and the maximum of three reached the threshold.
Then the MPs vote, and the candidate with the lowest number of votes is eliminated, followed by the above.
So there is no real point in raising the bar.
Although I am certain some pressure will be brought to bear, and the runner up will probably be offered a big job on condition that they pull out, in order to avoid the members getting a vote.
I am not sure how successful this would be, particularly if it was Boris because I am certain he will still fancy his chances with the members, even after finishing second.
Next Monday will provide clarity. The MPs do not trust their Members to choose wisely.
On Monday, they are going to announce how the new PM will be in place by Friday. As things stand, in 4 days or less, the Tories claim to be able to do the following:-
1. Count the 1st MPs preferences
2. Have a new MPs vote
3. Tell Members the process of how they may vote. Email? Phone? Carrier pigeon?
4. Have a security system in place to ensure votes are valid-as an example-do they have a valid email or mobile address for all their Members?
5. Provide info on policy so Members can make an informed choice
6. Collate and publish the Members votes to ensure that the loser is satisfied that justice was done
7. Inform Winner and ensure they are ready with their new Cabinet
So-4 days to do something that has never been done before. In a snap poll unlike anything before. Shorter, directionless, open to abuse on an industrial scale.
If they could achieve something as complex as that, the Country wouldn't be in such a mess.
Part of me hopes that is really going to happen. Because, if it is true, it manages to be as stupid as anything Truss ever did.
As Rishi appears to already have hit the target, the only way this could occur is if Penny and Boris both failed.
My feeling is that Boris and Rishi will both qualify for the ballot.
The Parliamentary Party voting will be over with on Monday.
My point is that whatever they may want to happen, both candidates may feel that they could win in a members ballot from second position in the MPs ballot on Monday.
Boris because of recent polling amongst members, and Rishi because of the accuracy of his predictions regarding the Liz Truss fairy tale economics, despite losing in the members ballot last time..
It may therefore be difficult to discourage either of them.
So I think the only way they avoid a members ballot, is by Rishi winning in a landslide and both the others failing to reach the 100 threshold.
Although what the Tory Party want, and what they get, on this occasion, may be two different things.
We will have to wait and see.
Is it the same Boris who lied to the Queen, lied to parliament, voted out by his own party, and smirked through countless gotcha moments.
I despair at the sheer b.loody arrogance of the Tories , who have zero sympathy for the public who are in desperate need.
The thing is, the Tories have just followed this sort of election process, and it was a total disaster. The MPs largely voted about 50% pro-Rishi, 50% everyone else, and the Idiot triumphed. White Woman bearing "gifts" that were not only illusory, but caused massive damage.
MPs are unlikely to be prepared to risk all that again. How is it going to look if the massive majority of the country want an Election, the majority of MPs want Sunak, and the Members just vote in Johnson. It's really not a good look. The next Election could see the Tories being destroyed.
Brady is no fool. If he thinks this will all be resolved 6 days from now, it is for a reason. He's just not telling us what it is.
The median age for Tory Members is what? 73? If you really only had 8 days to persuade them to vote in a way that was meaningful, would you spend the first 4 days telling them absolutely nothing? Like how to register to vote, what security protocols will be necessary (think every 85-yr-old has a passport or driving licence, and/or knows how to upload them?).
I'm not saying it won't happen. What I am saying is that it will likely descend into farce. Which would cost a lot of MPs, and Sir Graham Brady, their jobs.
Although I think that now they have set out the process, that it will be very, very, difficult to get out of.
I think their only chance is if only one candidate reaches the threshold.
You would think that receiving a vote via email or text including a security code would not be too difficult, in 2022.
It is quite easy to see this process not turning out quite as had they hoped.
Meanwhile latest odds are
8/15 Sunak
15/8 Johnson
14/1 Mordaunt.
I'm sure I'm not the only one who thinks the Members aren't going to get a meaningful vote. Because I believe that (incredibly) Johnson would be considerably shorter.
Boris polarises opinion. You love him. Or hate him. Think the same is true for MPs. His supporters have come out early. Will he get to 100? Might be closer than people are assuming.
Obv meaning “ He got me my job, maybe he can persuade the gullible public to keep me in it .
Staggering…..
Boris will be back in No10 by Friday and Sunak will be Chancellor.
"Whoops we made a big mistake when we removed Boris" say all the Tories (with no other option).
Country back to where it was before all this uncertainty.
"I sincerely promise not to lie and cheat any more" says Boris (fingers crossed behind his back).
"I truly believe this is the right move" says Sunak (fingers crossed behind his back).
Or even the double.
There is not a correlation between how the Parliamentary Party vote, and how the members vote, as proved by the recent leadership challenge.
Most MPs voted for Rishi, yet most members voted for Truss.
I could see this reoccurring with the MPs again voting for Rishi, and the members voting for Boris.
I think it impossible to persuade the winner of the MPs vote to concede.
Equally impossible to persuade the likely winner of the members vote to concede.
The members have been promised a vote.
This is now unavoidable.
Unless of course only one candidate reaches the 100 threshold.
Whereas it would be more difficult to justify the appointment of one of the others.
The purpose of this is purely to justify the appointment of Boris, as the current state of the polls mean that they will avoid a GE like the plague, whoever they appoint.
They are obviously ignoring the possible outcome of the Privileges Committee Inquiry.
Is Jeremy Hunt unsackable?
Can either of them have any input in his upcoming financial event?
Will the markets see the appointment of Boris as a good idea?
Johnson 71
Mordaunt 25.
I don't believe anything where politics is concerned so will keep my money in my pocket.
Johnson 71
Mordaunt 25.