Off somewhere important, Rishi? Ex-Chancellor Sunak is set to announce his bid to be Britain's next Prime Minister within HOURS as aides say he has ALREADY got the backing of 100 MPs and any 'dream ticket' deal with Boris Johnson is 'miles away'
Ex-Chancellor Rishi Sunak is expected to announce he is running to be Britain's next Prime Minister this afternoon as aides said he already has the backing of 100 MPs and any 'dream ticket' deal with Boris Johnson was unlikely. The apparent frontrunner was seen leaving his house this morning ahead of it being revealed he had the nominations needed to be on the ballot on Monday. It comes as Mr Johnson is understood to be willing to meet his estranged former chancellor in the hope of burying the hatchet and thrashing out a deal to govern together. A source close to bookies' favourite Mr Sunak last night played down the prospect of peace talks, saying that although he was 'willing to talk to all colleagues', there were 'no plans' for a meeting with Mr Johnson. Mr Johnson arrived back in the UK this morning after flying from the Dominican Republic last night for the leadership contest. This comes as bookmakers slashed the odds of Mr Sunak becoming the next Prime Minister to 1/5, while Mr Johnson is at 4/1 and Penny Mordaunt is lagging at 11/1.
It is unclear why such a large proportion of Mr Johnson’s backers appear unwilling to go public with their support, with suspicions that they may be keeping open the option of switching to Sunak if he looks like being the runaway winner.
It is unclear why such a large proportion of Mr Johnson’s backers appear unwilling to go public with their support, with suspicions that they may be keeping open the option of switching to Sunak if he looks like being the runaway winner.
Remind me. Who decides whether Boris has 100 backers-Sir Graham Brady, or Boris Johnson's campaign team?
People either come forward by Monday, or they do not. And-if they go public-I would expect any self-respecting Tory voter in their constituency to send a clear message at the next election.
It is unclear why such a large proportion of Mr Johnson’s backers appear unwilling to go public with their support, with suspicions that they may be keeping open the option of switching to Sunak if he looks like being the runaway winner.
Remind me. Who decides whether Boris has 100 backers-Sir Graham Brady, or Boris Johnson's campaign team?
People either come forward by Monday, or they do not. And-if they go public-I would expect any self-respecting Tory voter in their constituency to send a clear message at the next election.
Might as well have put it on the side of a bus...
As Nic Watt confirmed on Newsnight, real-time online publicly available lists of declarations sourced from social media, contacts and the leadership campaigns themselves have made things more transparent. They have reduced the potential for MPs to double or triple pledge their support in private and ended the bluffing that characterised Tory machine politics in the past. Andrew Mitchell’s claims “of we have it in the bag”, Heath’s surprise defeat, Liam Fox’s confident claims of victory – none of this will happen nowadays. Because of the existence of online real-time data, available to all via a browser – a public service pioneered by this website. There is now less opportunity to bluff.
Here is some insight into what has happened in the last few days: the Rishi campaign has decided in their wisdom to freeze Guido out – no briefing, no contact, effectively pretending we don’t exist as a fact of political life. Petulantly putting us in the penalty box for giving Rishi a hard time in the last leadership campaign. We started reporting and publicly recording the support of MPs for Boris on Thursday, and by yesterday evening the Rishi campaign was instructing their supporting MPs to contact us to confirm their support for him. As our records showed support for Rishi catching up with and then pulling ahead of Boris, his campaign reminded supporters to confirm their pledges to us. All can now see the relative strength of candidates’ support.
In this morning’s Times, Matthew Parris today claims that
“Momentum is being manufactured through creating an impression that Johnson is already on his way to victory. Mysterious reports on social media suggest he’s surging ahead among those MPs who are declaring — but the identities of some of these are undisclosed. They will (we’re assured) reveal themselves “later”. The sense of movement this creates is giving those many Conservative MPs who still keep their own counsel the idea that this man is a winner, and (say quieter MPs to themselves), “we’d better declare for him early, as we know he rewards supporters and freezes out the rest”.
Copy which Parris obviously filed yesterday afternoon before we showed Rishi surging ahead that evening. Unhinged analysis, shown to be so, as events unfolded before the ink was dry on his claims.
MPs who have not pledged can be seen by all sides. They are either genuinely undecided – waiting to see which way the wind blows – or biding their time for Machiavellian reasons, or simply ransoming their vote for the highest bid or best favour. What MPs can’t do is double pledge any more. If they tell a campaign they are backing their candidate the campaign expects them to go public. If they don’t go public, they are suspect.
As the pioneers of real-time transparency in this form, we decided to record the preferences of MPs who are whips or 1922 Committee officials or hold offices in the party which require them to be publicly neutral. Which is why we record higher numbers than our rivals. We verify those pledges directly even when campaigns assure us. Which is why when last night we hit 100 for Rishi, the Rishi campaign immediately confirmed to the media they had passed the threshold, despite other media organisations being well behind with their figures. We note with satisfaction that now some of those same media organisations are switching to quoting using our public plus private figures methodology.
Yesterday the site was visited three quarters of a million times, such was the demand for data.* This kind of transparency is now a fact of political life, the game has changed. Changed for the better…
*Team Rishi’s strategy of ignoring the website read by so much of the membership doesn’t bode well for their success if the contest goes to the membership.
On the subject of petulance, Guido is there to report what it believes to be the facts.
It cannot both give impartial figures and do an in-depth piece slagging off Rishi Sunak. I don't care whether he likes Guido or not. I care about the process.
Meanwhile-assuming its figures are accurate, it is
126 Sunak 73 Johnson 26 Mordaunt 132 undeclared
Johnson still needs 27. Of those 132 (or possibly 158 if Mordaunt withdraws) Mordaunt needs 74. Which she is not going to get.
Then-if Boris gets to 100, there will be a 2nd vote. Which I am guessing will be about 220-137 in favour of Sunak. We shall see.
And our Democracy may hinge on whether the Members get a vote, or not. That would be a vote which appears to be based purely on who the Members like the look of, as not 1 single policy has been discussed, never mind debated.
Compare/contrast with a real election. With the real electorate. With real debate. Real vision. Choice.
This "election" is decidedly undemocratic. And it is not just because the public don't get a say.
It's going to be touch and go whether Boris gets to 100. Mordaunt currently sits on 27 MPs. The stage will be reached when she will know whether it will be possible to get to 100 herself.
If she wants Sunak to win, she stays in the contest until time is up on Monday. Whereas, if she wants Boris to win, she withdraws today, and her 27 can have a fresh vote. Which may well make the difference as to whether or not Boris gets to 100.
I presume Mordaunt formally stood (unlike the other 2) because she wants Sunak to win. So that pressure cannot be put on her to withdraw, as she is already formally in.
It is entirely possible that, in reality, it will not be the Electorate decides our next PM. Not the Tory Members. Not even the 357 MPs. Just 1-Penny Mordaunt.
This "election" is decidedly undemocratic. And it is not just because the public don't get a say.
It's going to be touch and go whether Boris gets to 100. Mordaunt currently sits on 27 MPs. The stage will be reached when she will know whether it will be possible to get to 100 herself.
If she wants Sunak to win, she stays in the contest until time is up on Monday. Whereas, if she wants Boris to win, she withdraws today, and her 27 can have a fresh vote. Which may well make the difference as to whether or not Boris gets to 100.
I presume Mordaunt formally stood (unlike the other 2) because she wants Sunak to win. So that pressure cannot be put on her to withdraw, as she is already formally in.
It is entirely possible that, in reality, it will not be the Electorate decides our next PM. Not the Tory Members. Not even the 357 MPs. Just 1-Penny Mordaunt.
Shortest price for Sunak is 2/13. Best price for Boris is 9/2.
I must admit that I dont understand why the odds are as they are. The last polling I saw that referred to Tory members, showed that Boris was a clear winner. Therefore there must be something going on, that I am missing.
A couple of Boris supporters have been on the airwaves this morning claiming that he has already hit the threshold. This may be true, who knows with Boris. I would be surprised if he didnt. As this would show that the Tories had grown a conscience, something I consider as unlikely, to say the least.
So at present, I see the likely outcome as Sunak wins the MPs vote, as he did last time. The members ignore this vote, as they did last time, and elect Boris. Mordaunts 27 votes will not affect the outcome in any way.
The one thing that convinces me that I am incorrect, is the odds. Because they shouldnt be as they are, if I was.
If Boris for some reason didnt make the ballot paper, I would be of the opinion that we had escaped. I wouldnt care if the escape was caused by some skulduggery, or a lack of democracy, I would just be glad of the escape.
Maybe the Tory membership has wised up subsequent to Sunaks predictions regarding the economy that Truss ignored, but proved correct.
This "election" is decidedly undemocratic. And it is not just because the public don't get a say.
It's going to be touch and go whether Boris gets to 100. Mordaunt currently sits on 27 MPs. The stage will be reached when she will know whether it will be possible to get to 100 herself.
If she wants Sunak to win, she stays in the contest until time is up on Monday. Whereas, if she wants Boris to win, she withdraws today, and her 27 can have a fresh vote. Which may well make the difference as to whether or not Boris gets to 100.
I presume Mordaunt formally stood (unlike the other 2) because she wants Sunak to win. So that pressure cannot be put on her to withdraw, as she is already formally in.
It is entirely possible that, in reality, it will not be the Electorate decides our next PM. Not the Tory Members. Not even the 357 MPs. Just 1-Penny Mordaunt.
Shortest price for Sunak is 2/13. Best price for Boris is 9/2.
I must admit that I dont understand why the odds are as they are. The last polling I saw that referred to Tory members, showed that Boris was a clear winner. Therefore there must be something going on, that I am missing.
A couple of Boris supporters have been on the airwaves this morning claiming that he has already hit the threshold. This may be true, who knows with Boris. I would be surprised if he didnt. As this would show that the Tories had grown a conscience, something I consider as unlikely, to say the least.
So at present, I see the likely outcome as Sunak wins the MPs vote, as he did last time. The members ignore this vote, as they did last time, and elect Boris. Mordaunts 27 votes will not affect the outcome in any way.
The one thing that convinces me that I am incorrect, is the odds. Because they shouldnt be as they are, if I was.
If Boris for some reason didnt make the ballot paper, I would be of the opinion that we had escaped. I wouldnt care if the escape was caused by some skulduggery, or a lack of democracy, I would just be glad of the escape.
Maybe the Tory membership has wised up subsequent to Sunaks predictions regarding the economy that Truss ignored, but proved correct.
You rightly pointed out that, purely from their own perspectives, there was no point in Johnson and Sunak meeting. Because both would appear to have a clear path to victory.
The reason they met is simple. I expect they have been ordered to resolve this. And avoid the Members having a vote. For the good (indeed the likely very existence) of the Tory Party.
And part of me is wondering exactly what bribes Rishi is authorised to give Boris in order for him to step aside. Money? A Cabinet post? A promise that he will be exonerated in the enquiry? A mixture of all 3? The threat that, if he continues to stand, info will be released which will make his disbarment inevitable? 2 different bribes, dependant on whether he reaches the 100?
Because Sir Graham Brady is either the sort of fool who repeats the same mistake twice in 3 months. Or he knows something we don't. And Brady doesn't look like a fool.
And it's not just me who thinks that. The bookies do, too.
This "election" is decidedly undemocratic. And it is not just because the public don't get a say.
It's going to be touch and go whether Boris gets to 100. Mordaunt currently sits on 27 MPs. The stage will be reached when she will know whether it will be possible to get to 100 herself.
If she wants Sunak to win, she stays in the contest until time is up on Monday. Whereas, if she wants Boris to win, she withdraws today, and her 27 can have a fresh vote. Which may well make the difference as to whether or not Boris gets to 100.
I presume Mordaunt formally stood (unlike the other 2) because she wants Sunak to win. So that pressure cannot be put on her to withdraw, as she is already formally in.
It is entirely possible that, in reality, it will not be the Electorate decides our next PM. Not the Tory Members. Not even the 357 MPs. Just 1-Penny Mordaunt.
Shortest price for Sunak is 2/13. Best price for Boris is 9/2.
I must admit that I dont understand why the odds are as they are. The last polling I saw that referred to Tory members, showed that Boris was a clear winner. Therefore there must be something going on, that I am missing.
A couple of Boris supporters have been on the airwaves this morning claiming that he has already hit the threshold. This may be true, who knows with Boris. I would be surprised if he didnt. As this would show that the Tories had grown a conscience, something I consider as unlikely, to say the least.
So at present, I see the likely outcome as Sunak wins the MPs vote, as he did last time. The members ignore this vote, as they did last time, and elect Boris. Mordaunts 27 votes will not affect the outcome in any way.
The one thing that convinces me that I am incorrect, is the odds. Because they shouldnt be as they are, if I was.
If Boris for some reason didnt make the ballot paper, I would be of the opinion that we had escaped. I wouldnt care if the escape was caused by some skulduggery, or a lack of democracy, I would just be glad of the escape.
Maybe the Tory membership has wised up subsequent to Sunaks predictions regarding the economy that Truss ignored, but proved correct.
You rightly pointed out that, purely from their own perspectives, there was no point in Johnson and Sunak meeting. Because both would appear to have a clear path to victory.
The reason they met is simple. I expect they have been ordered to resolve this. And avoid the Members having a vote. For the good (indeed the likely very existence) of the Tory Party.
And part of me is wondering exactly what bribes Rishi is authorised to give Boris in order for him to step aside. Money? A Cabinet post? A promise that he will be exonerated in the enquiry? A mixture of all 3? The threat that, if he continues to stand, info will be released which will make his disbarment inevitable? 2 different bribes, dependant on whether he reaches the 100?
Because Sir Graham Brady is either the sort of fool who repeats the same mistake twice in 3 months. Or he knows something we don't. And Brady doesn't look like a fool.
And it's not just me who thinks that. The bookies do, too.
I would loved to have been a fly on the wall at the meeting, if there really was one. Whatever the instructions were I am certain it would have entailed Boris offering Sunak a deal to stand aside. The man who wanted to be the king of the world is unlikely to stand aside for anyone.
This "election" is decidedly undemocratic. And it is not just because the public don't get a say.
It's going to be touch and go whether Boris gets to 100. Mordaunt currently sits on 27 MPs. The stage will be reached when she will know whether it will be possible to get to 100 herself.
If she wants Sunak to win, she stays in the contest until time is up on Monday. Whereas, if she wants Boris to win, she withdraws today, and her 27 can have a fresh vote. Which may well make the difference as to whether or not Boris gets to 100.
I presume Mordaunt formally stood (unlike the other 2) because she wants Sunak to win. So that pressure cannot be put on her to withdraw, as she is already formally in.
It is entirely possible that, in reality, it will not be the Electorate decides our next PM. Not the Tory Members. Not even the 357 MPs. Just 1-Penny Mordaunt.
Shortest price for Sunak is 2/13. Best price for Boris is 9/2.
I must admit that I dont understand why the odds are as they are. The last polling I saw that referred to Tory members, showed that Boris was a clear winner. Therefore there must be something going on, that I am missing.
A couple of Boris supporters have been on the airwaves this morning claiming that he has already hit the threshold. This may be true, who knows with Boris. I would be surprised if he didnt. As this would show that the Tories had grown a conscience, something I consider as unlikely, to say the least.
So at present, I see the likely outcome as Sunak wins the MPs vote, as he did last time. The members ignore this vote, as they did last time, and elect Boris. Mordaunts 27 votes will not affect the outcome in any way.
The one thing that convinces me that I am incorrect, is the odds. Because they shouldnt be as they are, if I was.
If Boris for some reason didnt make the ballot paper, I would be of the opinion that we had escaped. I wouldnt care if the escape was caused by some skulduggery, or a lack of democracy, I would just be glad of the escape.
Maybe the Tory membership has wised up subsequent to Sunaks predictions regarding the economy that Truss ignored, but proved correct.
You rightly pointed out that, purely from their own perspectives, there was no point in Johnson and Sunak meeting. Because both would appear to have a clear path to victory.
The reason they met is simple. I expect they have been ordered to resolve this. And avoid the Members having a vote. For the good (indeed the likely very existence) of the Tory Party.
And part of me is wondering exactly what bribes Rishi is authorised to give Boris in order for him to step aside. Money? A Cabinet post? A promise that he will be exonerated in the enquiry? A mixture of all 3? The threat that, if he continues to stand, info will be released which will make his disbarment inevitable? 2 different bribes, dependant on whether he reaches the 100?
Because Sir Graham Brady is either the sort of fool who repeats the same mistake twice in 3 months. Or he knows something we don't. And Brady doesn't look like a fool.
And it's not just me who thinks that. The bookies do, too.
I think it is beyond Boris to even contemplate losing anything.
This "election" is decidedly undemocratic. And it is not just because the public don't get a say.
It's going to be touch and go whether Boris gets to 100. Mordaunt currently sits on 27 MPs. The stage will be reached when she will know whether it will be possible to get to 100 herself.
If she wants Sunak to win, she stays in the contest until time is up on Monday. Whereas, if she wants Boris to win, she withdraws today, and her 27 can have a fresh vote. Which may well make the difference as to whether or not Boris gets to 100.
I presume Mordaunt formally stood (unlike the other 2) because she wants Sunak to win. So that pressure cannot be put on her to withdraw, as she is already formally in.
It is entirely possible that, in reality, it will not be the Electorate decides our next PM. Not the Tory Members. Not even the 357 MPs. Just 1-Penny Mordaunt.
Shortest price for Sunak is 2/13. Best price for Boris is 9/2.
I must admit that I dont understand why the odds are as they are. The last polling I saw that referred to Tory members, showed that Boris was a clear winner. Therefore there must be something going on, that I am missing.
A couple of Boris supporters have been on the airwaves this morning claiming that he has already hit the threshold. This may be true, who knows with Boris. I would be surprised if he didnt. As this would show that the Tories had grown a conscience, something I consider as unlikely, to say the least.
So at present, I see the likely outcome as Sunak wins the MPs vote, as he did last time. The members ignore this vote, as they did last time, and elect Boris. Mordaunts 27 votes will not affect the outcome in any way.
The one thing that convinces me that I am incorrect, is the odds. Because they shouldnt be as they are, if I was.
If Boris for some reason didnt make the ballot paper, I would be of the opinion that we had escaped. I wouldnt care if the escape was caused by some skulduggery, or a lack of democracy, I would just be glad of the escape.
Maybe the Tory membership has wised up subsequent to Sunaks predictions regarding the economy that Truss ignored, but proved correct.
You rightly pointed out that, purely from their own perspectives, there was no point in Johnson and Sunak meeting. Because both would appear to have a clear path to victory.
The reason they met is simple. I expect they have been ordered to resolve this. And avoid the Members having a vote. For the good (indeed the likely very existence) of the Tory Party.
And part of me is wondering exactly what bribes Rishi is authorised to give Boris in order for him to step aside. Money? A Cabinet post? A promise that he will be exonerated in the enquiry? A mixture of all 3? The threat that, if he continues to stand, info will be released which will make his disbarment inevitable? 2 different bribes, dependant on whether he reaches the 100?
Because Sir Graham Brady is either the sort of fool who repeats the same mistake twice in 3 months. Or he knows something we don't. And Brady doesn't look like a fool.
And it's not just me who thinks that. The bookies do, too.
It looks odds on that they will both make the ballot. And both probably think that they can win. The bookies knowledge must therefore be regarding how the members will vote. Are a majority now supporting Sunak?
Comments
https://video.dailymail.co.uk/preview/backup/2022/10/22/7938056740433016595/636x382_MP4_7938056740433016595.mp4
Ex-Chancellor Rishi Sunak is expected to announce he is running to be Britain's next Prime Minister this afternoon as aides said he already has the backing of 100 MPs and any 'dream ticket' deal with Boris Johnson was unlikely. The apparent frontrunner was seen leaving his house this morning ahead of it being revealed he had the nominations needed to be on the ballot on Monday. It comes as Mr Johnson is understood to be willing to meet his estranged former chancellor in the hope of burying the hatchet and thrashing out a deal to govern together. A source close to bookies' favourite Mr Sunak last night played down the prospect of peace talks, saying that although he was 'willing to talk to all colleagues', there were 'no plans' for a meeting with Mr Johnson. Mr Johnson arrived back in the UK this morning after flying from the Dominican Republic last night for the leadership contest. This comes as bookmakers slashed the odds of Mr Sunak becoming the next Prime Minister to 1/5, while Mr Johnson is at 4/1 and Penny Mordaunt is lagging at 11/1.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11343143/Rishi-Sunak-leaves-house-senior-Tories-try-broker-peace-talks-Boris.html
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/boris-johnson-hits-100-nominations-142633693.html
People either come forward by Monday, or they do not. And-if they go public-I would expect any self-respecting Tory voter in their constituency to send a clear message at the next election.
Might as well have put it on the side of a bus...
Here is some insight into what has happened in the last few days: the Rishi campaign has decided in their wisdom to freeze Guido out – no briefing, no contact, effectively pretending we don’t exist as a fact of political life. Petulantly putting us in the penalty box for giving Rishi a hard time in the last leadership campaign. We started reporting and publicly recording the support of MPs for Boris on Thursday, and by yesterday evening the Rishi campaign was instructing their supporting MPs to contact us to confirm their support for him. As our records showed support for Rishi catching up with and then pulling ahead of Boris, his campaign reminded supporters to confirm their pledges to us. All can now see the relative strength of candidates’ support.
In this morning’s Times, Matthew Parris today claims that
“Momentum is being manufactured through creating an impression that Johnson is already on his way to victory. Mysterious reports on social media suggest he’s surging ahead among those MPs who are declaring — but the identities of some of these are undisclosed. They will (we’re assured) reveal themselves “later”. The sense of movement this creates is giving those many Conservative MPs who still keep their own counsel the idea that this man is a winner, and (say quieter MPs to themselves), “we’d better declare for him early, as we know he rewards supporters and freezes out the rest”.
Copy which Parris obviously filed yesterday afternoon before we showed Rishi surging ahead that evening. Unhinged analysis, shown to be so, as events unfolded before the ink was dry on his claims.
MPs who have not pledged can be seen by all sides. They are either genuinely undecided – waiting to see which way the wind blows – or biding their time for Machiavellian reasons, or simply ransoming their vote for the highest bid or best favour. What MPs can’t do is double pledge any more. If they tell a campaign they are backing their candidate the campaign expects them to go public. If they don’t go public, they are suspect.
As the pioneers of real-time transparency in this form, we decided to record the preferences of MPs who are whips or 1922 Committee officials or hold offices in the party which require them to be publicly neutral. Which is why we record higher numbers than our rivals. We verify those pledges directly even when campaigns assure us. Which is why when last night we hit 100 for Rishi, the Rishi campaign immediately confirmed to the media they had passed the threshold, despite other media organisations being well behind with their figures. We note with satisfaction that now some of those same media organisations are switching to quoting using our public plus private figures methodology.
Yesterday the site was visited three quarters of a million times, such was the demand for data.* This kind of transparency is now a fact of political life, the game has changed. Changed for the better…
*Team Rishi’s strategy of ignoring the website read by so much of the membership doesn’t bode well for their success if the contest goes to the membership.
https://order-order.com/
It cannot both give impartial figures and do an in-depth piece slagging off Rishi Sunak. I don't care whether he likes Guido or not. I care about the process.
Meanwhile-assuming its figures are accurate, it is
126 Sunak
73 Johnson
26 Mordaunt
132 undeclared
Johnson still needs 27. Of those 132 (or possibly 158 if Mordaunt withdraws)
Mordaunt needs 74. Which she is not going to get.
Then-if Boris gets to 100, there will be a 2nd vote. Which I am guessing will be about 220-137 in favour of Sunak. We shall see.
And our Democracy may hinge on whether the Members get a vote, or not. That would be a vote which appears to be based purely on who the Members like the look of, as not 1 single policy has been discussed, never mind debated.
Compare/contrast with a real election. With the real electorate. With real debate. Real vision. Choice.
Pah.
This is very old, but a delightful watch.
74 Johnson
27 Mordaunt
122 undeclared
https://order-order.com/
https://news.yahoo.com/led-donkeys-target-jacob-rees-144405433.html
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/led-donkeys-target-jacob-rees-142800131.html
This "election" is decidedly undemocratic. And it is not just because the public don't get a say.
It's going to be touch and go whether Boris gets to 100. Mordaunt currently sits on 27 MPs. The stage will be reached when she will know whether it will be possible to get to 100 herself.
If she wants Sunak to win, she stays in the contest until time is up on Monday. Whereas, if she wants Boris to win, she withdraws today, and her 27 can have a fresh vote. Which may well make the difference as to whether or not Boris gets to 100.
I presume Mordaunt formally stood (unlike the other 2) because she wants Sunak to win. So that pressure cannot be put on her to withdraw, as she is already formally in.
It is entirely possible that, in reality, it will not be the Electorate decides our next PM. Not the Tory Members. Not even the 357 MPs. Just 1-Penny Mordaunt.
Best price for Boris is 9/2.
I must admit that I dont understand why the odds are as they are.
The last polling I saw that referred to Tory members, showed that Boris was a clear winner.
Therefore there must be something going on, that I am missing.
A couple of Boris supporters have been on the airwaves this morning claiming that he has already hit the threshold.
This may be true, who knows with Boris.
I would be surprised if he didnt.
As this would show that the Tories had grown a conscience, something I consider as unlikely, to say the least.
So at present, I see the likely outcome as Sunak wins the MPs vote, as he did last time.
The members ignore this vote, as they did last time, and elect Boris.
Mordaunts 27 votes will not affect the outcome in any way.
The one thing that convinces me that I am incorrect, is the odds.
Because they shouldnt be as they are, if I was.
If Boris for some reason didnt make the ballot paper, I would be of the opinion that we had escaped.
I wouldnt care if the escape was caused by some skulduggery, or a lack of democracy, I would just be glad of the escape.
Maybe the Tory membership has wised up subsequent to Sunaks predictions regarding the economy that Truss ignored, but proved correct.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/blow-boris-johnson-leading-eurosceptic-074828382.html
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/boris-johnson-could-gone-christmas-145758150.html
The reason they met is simple. I expect they have been ordered to resolve this. And avoid the Members having a vote. For the good (indeed the likely very existence) of the Tory Party.
And part of me is wondering exactly what bribes Rishi is authorised to give Boris in order for him to step aside. Money? A Cabinet post? A promise that he will be exonerated in the enquiry? A mixture of all 3? The threat that, if he continues to stand, info will be released which will make his disbarment inevitable? 2 different bribes, dependant on whether he reaches the 100?
Because Sir Graham Brady is either the sort of fool who repeats the same mistake twice in 3 months. Or he knows something we don't. And Brady doesn't look like a fool.
And it's not just me who thinks that. The bookies do, too.
It's official - Rishi throws his hat in the ring.
Whatever the instructions were I am certain it would have entailed Boris offering Sunak a deal to stand aside.
The man who wanted to be the king of the world is unlikely to stand aside for anyone.
And both probably think that they can win.
The bookies knowledge must therefore be regarding how the members will vote.
Are a majority now supporting Sunak?