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Boris.

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  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,862
    edited October 2022
    MPs must get up late on a Sunday.
    The numbers have only just started moving.

    155 Sunak
    76 Johnson
    28 Mordaunt
    98 undeclared

    https://order-order.com/
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 8,780
    HAYSIE said:

    Essexphil said:

    HAYSIE said:

    Essexphil said:

    Latest odds: Sunak 1/4. Johnson 3/1.

    This "election" is decidedly undemocratic. And it is not just because the public don't get a say.

    It's going to be touch and go whether Boris gets to 100. Mordaunt currently sits on 27 MPs. The stage will be reached when she will know whether it will be possible to get to 100 herself.

    If she wants Sunak to win, she stays in the contest until time is up on Monday. Whereas, if she wants Boris to win, she withdraws today, and her 27 can have a fresh vote. Which may well make the difference as to whether or not Boris gets to 100.

    I presume Mordaunt formally stood (unlike the other 2) because she wants Sunak to win. So that pressure cannot be put on her to withdraw, as she is already formally in.

    It is entirely possible that, in reality, it will not be the Electorate decides our next PM. Not the Tory Members. Not even the 357 MPs. Just 1-Penny Mordaunt.

    Shortest price for Sunak is 2/13.
    Best price for Boris is 9/2.

    I must admit that I dont understand why the odds are as they are.
    The last polling I saw that referred to Tory members, showed that Boris was a clear winner.
    Therefore there must be something going on, that I am missing.

    A couple of Boris supporters have been on the airwaves this morning claiming that he has already hit the threshold.
    This may be true, who knows with Boris.
    I would be surprised if he didnt.
    As this would show that the Tories had grown a conscience, something I consider as unlikely, to say the least.

    So at present, I see the likely outcome as Sunak wins the MPs vote, as he did last time.
    The members ignore this vote, as they did last time, and elect Boris.
    Mordaunts 27 votes will not affect the outcome in any way.

    The one thing that convinces me that I am incorrect, is the odds.
    Because they shouldnt be as they are, if I was.

    If Boris for some reason didnt make the ballot paper, I would be of the opinion that we had escaped.
    I wouldnt care if the escape was caused by some skulduggery, or a lack of democracy, I would just be glad of the escape.

    Maybe the Tory membership has wised up subsequent to Sunaks predictions regarding the economy that Truss ignored, but proved correct.

    You rightly pointed out that, purely from their own perspectives, there was no point in Johnson and Sunak meeting. Because both would appear to have a clear path to victory.

    The reason they met is simple. I expect they have been ordered to resolve this. And avoid the Members having a vote. For the good (indeed the likely very existence) of the Tory Party.

    And part of me is wondering exactly what bribes Rishi is authorised to give Boris in order for him to step aside. Money? A Cabinet post? A promise that he will be exonerated in the enquiry? A mixture of all 3? The threat that, if he continues to stand, info will be released which will make his disbarment inevitable? 2 different bribes, dependant on whether he reaches the 100?

    Because Sir Graham Brady is either the sort of fool who repeats the same mistake twice in 3 months. Or he knows something we don't. And Brady doesn't look like a fool.

    And it's not just me who thinks that. The bookies do, too.
    It looks odds on that they will both make the ballot.
    And both probably think that they can win.
    The bookies knowledge must therefore be regarding how the members will vote.
    Are a majority now supporting Sunak?
    If you seriously believe that the bookies are placing their faith in the Membership, they would need to be as naive as people who believed a person who claimed that the way to save money was to reduce income and increase expenditure.

    People assume Boris wants to be PM. Whereas he may wish to earn considerably more money as an ex-PM with a salvaged reputation. And has positioned himself to achieve exactly that.

    We shall soon find out.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,862
    Boris shortening.
    Best price now 3/1.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,862
    QUOTE OF THE DAY
    Simon Clarke on Boris’s return as PM:

    “Tees Valley Mayor @BenHouchen and I know that for us, like Boris, the comeback will be greater than the setback.”
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 8,780
    HAYSIE said:

    QUOTE OF THE DAY
    Simon Clarke on Boris’s return as PM:

    “Tees Valley Mayor @BenHouchen and I know that for us, like Boris, the comeback will be greater than the setback.”

    But presumably less than the blowback and the back-handers...
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,862
    Rishi Sunak officially launches bid to be PM after three-hour peace talks between him and Boris end 'with NO deal' - with ex-Chancellor's allies claiming Johnson's return to No10 would be a 'guaranteed disaster'



    Rishi Sunak today officially launched his campaign to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister after his late-night talks with rival Boris Johnson were claimed to have ended without a power-sharing pact being struck. The former Chancellor formally confirmed his candidacy for the Tory leadership as he vowed to lead with 'work day in and day out to get the job done' as Britain faces a 'profound economic crisis'. Mr Johnson and Mr Sunak met at 8pm last night where the ex-PM was said to have told his former Chancellor that - if he re-entered No10 with Mr Sunak in a senior role - it would avoid a divisive battle. But it was claimed this morning that no agreement was struck between the pair in their three-hour negotiations. It sets up another 24 hours of frantic phone calls and messaging between leadership contenders and Tory MPs ahead of tomorrow's 2pm deadline for them to secure the backing of 100 supporters. Penny Mordaunt, who officially declared her leadership bid on Friday, this morning denied 'completely false' claims she had offered to back Mr Johnson in return for a job. 'I'm in this to win it,' the Leader of the House of Commons declared, despite signs she is struggling to win backers. Allies revealed a 'smartly dressed' Mr Johnson was on 'good form' as he ploughed on with his comeback bid this morning in a meeting with supporters. But Mr Johnson suffered a blow when prominent Brexiteer Steve Baker gave his support to Mr Sunak and warned Tory MPs against putting the former premier back in Downing Street. The Northern Ireland minister, who backed Ms Truss over Mr Sunak in this summer's leadership contest, claimed a Boris comeback would be a 'guaranteed disaster'.


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11345359/Tories-wait-news-Boris-Johnson-Rishi-Sunaks-three-hour-talks-rivals-mull-pact.html
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,862
    edited October 2022
    HAYSIE said:

    Boris shortening.
    Best price now 3/1.

    Sunak shortest price 1/12.
    Boris best price 6/1.

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister-after-liz-truss
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 8,780
    HAYSIE said:

    HAYSIE said:

    Boris shortening.
    Best price now 3/1.

    Sunak shortest price 1/12.
    Boris best price 6/1.
    Best prices I can see at the moment are 2/5 & 4/1.

    Which is bonkers. Unless bookies like giving money away.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,862
    Essexphil said:

    HAYSIE said:

    QUOTE OF THE DAY
    Simon Clarke on Boris’s return as PM:

    “Tees Valley Mayor @BenHouchen and I know that for us, like Boris, the comeback will be greater than the setback.”

    But presumably less than the blowback and the back-handers...
    Boris isnt standing.
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 8,780
    HAYSIE said:

    Essexphil said:

    HAYSIE said:

    QUOTE OF THE DAY
    Simon Clarke on Boris’s return as PM:

    “Tees Valley Mayor @BenHouchen and I know that for us, like Boris, the comeback will be greater than the setback.”

    But presumably less than the blowback and the back-handers...
    Boris isnt standing.
    He's pulled out.

    First time for everything :)
  • Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 169,670

    What a relief.

    So we will have a new Prime Minister tomorrow presumably?
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,862
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,862
    Tikay10 said:


    What a relief.

    So we will have a new Prime Minister tomorrow presumably?

    Unless Mordaunt can get on the ballot.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,862
    I suppose this is where we are now.

    155 Sunak
    28 Mordaunt
    174 undeclared

    https://order-order.com/
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,862
    'Leadership contest… completed it mate': Twitter users react with hilarious social media memes as Boris Johnson reveals he will NOT run in the race to replace Liz Truss as Tory leader













    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11346747/Twitter-users-react-hilarious-social-media-memes-Johnson-pulls-Tory-leadership-race.html
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 8,780
    edited October 2022
    Odds are about

    1/50 Sunak
    12/1 Mordaunt

    With less than 5 hours to go, Guido can't be ar5ed to give us the numbers. The BBC appear to have no updated information.

    Meanwhile, we have an "election" rigged by 1 person getting votes who was never actually standing for election. Ensuring that Mordaunt will not get the chance to have the votes of people who thought they were voting for someone who is not standing.

    Sunak has not done a single public interview since this started. Just kept his head down. No doubt safe in the knowledge that he would not have to do anything to be PM. Has managed to have a secret meeting with Boris. As has Mordaunt.

    And this is supposed to be a Democracy.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,862
    Essexphil said:

    Odds are about

    1/50 Sunak
    12/1 Mordaunt

    With less than 5 hours to go, Guido can't be ar5ed to give us the numbers. The BBC appear to have no updated information.

    Meanwhile, we have an "election" rigged by 1 person getting votes who was never actually standing for election. Ensuring that Mordaunt will not get the chance to have the votes of people who thought they were voting for someone who is not standing.

    Sunak has not done a single public interview since this started. Just kept his head down. No doubt safe in the knowledge that he would not have to do anything to be PM. Has managed to have a secret meeting with Boris. As has Mordaunt.

    And this is supposed to be a Democracy.

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister-after-liz-truss

    When I looked earlier Sunak was 1/100.
    They have pretty much wiped them off now.

    Guido are posting the numbers.
    The latest are,
    181 Sunak
    31 Mordaunt
    145 undeclared

    https://order-order.com/
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 8,780
    We have seen this before. And it is a little vomit-inducing.

    There are now several MPs, who had either expressed a preference for Boris, or said nothing, suddenly expressing their support, very publicly, for Rishi.

    Absolutely nothing to do with who they want to win. Just sheer self-interest. The latecomers are just looking after themselves. Just like all the MPs who magically swapped sides to support Truss.

    It is most unsatisfying.
  • Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 169,670
    Essexphil said:

    We have seen this before. And it is a little vomit-inducing.

    There are now several MPs, who had either expressed a preference for Boris, or said nothing, suddenly expressing their support, very publicly, for Rishi.

    Absolutely nothing to do with who they want to win. Just sheer self-interest.
    The latecomers are just looking after themselves. Just like all the MPs who magically swapped sides to support Truss.

    It is most unsatisfying.

    @Essexphil





  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,862
    Essexphil said:

    Odds are about

    1/50 Sunak
    12/1 Mordaunt

    With less than 5 hours to go, Guido can't be ar5ed to give us the numbers. The BBC appear to have no updated information.

    Meanwhile, we have an "election" rigged by 1 person getting votes who was never actually standing for election. Ensuring that Mordaunt will not get the chance to have the votes of people who thought they were voting for someone who is not standing.

    Sunak has not done a single public interview since this started. Just kept his head down. No doubt safe in the knowledge that he would not have to do anything to be PM. Has managed to have a secret meeting with Boris. As has Mordaunt.

    And this is supposed to be a Democracy.

    Nadhim Zahawi backing Boris – just MONTHS after ‘ousting’ him
    Nadhim Zahawi has become the latest high-profile Tory politician to support Boris Johnson's bid for re-election as Prime Minister.



    https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/breaking-zahawi-backing-boris-what-said-letter-resignation-july-337396/



    Nadhim Zahawi Mocked For Backing Boris Johnson And Rishi Sunak In The Same Half Hour



    A Tory minister has been mocked for publicly declaring his support for Boris Johnson’s Tory leadership bid and then switching to his arch-rival Rishi Sunak less than half an hour later.

    Nadhim Zahawi, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, said the UK should “get ready for Boris 2.0” in an article published by the Daily Telegraph at 9pm.
    But just two minutes earlier, Johnson had issued a statement saying he had decided to pull out of the race.

    In a remarkable about-turn, Zahawi - who urged Johnson to resign as prime minister in July - then posted a tweet at 9.29pm announcing that he had switched his support to Sunak.




    Nadhim Zahawi
    @nadhimzahawi
    A day is a long time in politics...

    Given today's news, it's clear that we should turn to
    @RishiSunak
    to become our next Prime Minister. Rishi is immensely talented, will command a strong majority in the parliamentary Conservative Party, and will have my full support & loyalty.


    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/nadhim-zahawi-mocked-backing-boris-211242406.html
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