I would love to see the episode of @TheWaddy trying this on Britains got talent it works either way if he calls the run outs or if he doesn't the reactions would be good.
I am sure he imagines the golden buzzer, in reality they would either fail miserably or succeed in which case the show hosts would prolly say something stupid like everyone knows gambling is fixed or the likes.
and dismiss it which would add fuel to the riggies to go off on one and stir the pot or he would fail and it would be funny. Either way it would be fun and good to watch.
Anyway after all that..... anyone choose to offer an explanation to how an extreme Loose Aggressive player, playing at stakes where the vast majority call too much.... has a complete steady upwards hill on over 10,000 tournaments.
Or we cud delete posts (interesting that this is in the mush lesser read 'strategy' column, am i taking strategy??? Or am i talking online poker in general. Best try and hide it up a bit...), talk about BGT and try and deflect it that way.....
I would also like to ask the blinkered community (we are talking facts, solid graphs, ect here, not how each of us are choosing on deciphering glaringly obvious info), to how you think the games 'heads up russian roulette' came about to the site.
This involves playing no poker, with no requirement to understand or play poker, just to watch one 'exciting' hand. You can wager anything up to £55. (talk about problem gambling!) How do you think that came about?
I will tell you. There is only one possible answer to this, if you dont understand business.
There has been discussions, at board level, which has identified that such the demand is for modern subscribers to a poker site, that are here for not playing poker, but for the 'excitement' and 'adrenaline' of a game that involves no skill.
The more exciting that game is, the more they will play. And they will play up to £55 a game for that pleasure. If there is no demand, a site would not even begin to entertain developing the software for it.... and to top this off as proof that sites are looking at 'adrenaline poker', slow stakes poker games are disappearing.
If anyone would also like to have a go at why russian roulette 'all in, one hand' poker has appeared and why normal games are disappearing fast.... other than identifying that 'added excitement' is what the vasy majority of subscribers want now, please feel free to offer an explanantion.
And they dont develop games cos just 20 or so want it that way, believe me. You need to understand how business works and when it evolves, they are giving what they believe the majority of customers want. MattBates has left i believe......
Just lost the first two games of the day to 2 of the biggest 'adrenaline calling junkies' of the site. They are happy, they will certainly be staying and spending. Job done. Me personally though, i feel a bit cheated, as the maths didnt add up.
And there we have the poker players leaving, the non poker players loving life and the evolving games to feed their habit.....
Oh and its been at least 24hrs since i have asked the 'i love online poker with aggressive loyalty' bunch, on how a steady steep uphill graph for an extreme loose aggressive player heads up is achieved at levels where calling stations are the norm......
Oh and its been at least 24hrs since i have asked the 'i love online poker with aggressive loyalty' bunch, on how a steady steep uphill graph for an extreme loose aggressive player heads up is achieved at levels where calling stations are the norm......
No word as yet!
I dont know of this player does he play omaha thingy or holdem? because in heads up hypers I have noted as someone who used to play a lot of small stakes on here that having a very high c bet frequency higher then one should worked a lot against recs.
they either over fold or call down with hands they shouldnt leading to issues on later streets.
If they see your over betting they can call down the small bets light which may in fact be correct given the bet frequencies but then call down very big bets on later streets when it is no longer correct that is one way this could be the case.
Often loose aggressive players who are profitible know how to constantly apply the attack but back away quickly when they recognise the situation is bad the casual player over adapts and gets aggressive in the wrong spot when the lag has it and loses bad.
in short lags can get paid off much more often against casuals then other types of players.
However this is prolly a waste of time explaining this to you because you have a confirmation bias and have continued before when I have explained what is wrong about things you were saying.
I cant comment on the specific player because I dont think I have played with them that much in the past, If I could I would probably not because I think it is wrong to discuss someone elses game on a public forum or in detail with others.
However what exactly is your aspersion here? are you trying to imply that the guy you mention is a house player or sky poker staff member or a sky poker bot?
To be absolutely clear I am not hinting at or making that accusation just trying to ascertain what your conspiracy theory is now? because unless sky have a direct financial interest in a particular screen name they have no reason to rig it in favour of that guy vs anyone else.
Anyway after all that..... anyone choose to offer an explanation to how an extreme Loose Aggressive player, playing at stakes where the vast majority call too much.... has a complete steady upwards hill on over 10,000 tournaments.
Or we cud delete posts (interesting that this is in the mush lesser read 'strategy' column, am i taking strategy??? Or am i talking online poker in general. Best try and hide it up a bit...), talk about BGT and try and deflect it that way.....
Must be the Modern way to play Online HUp Low Stakes Poker ........ you obviously can't adapt
Both silly answers, not considering the facts. Misty claims i cant adapt, despite me showing via screenshots that i can catch this player time and time again, putting him in awful spots. A graph should reflect this overplaying of marginal hands.
Doubleme suggests this player can blow away players into folding via continuation bets and the likes. This player is only playin PL hi lo at £2. Almost no player at this level is folding, as he cant raise enough preflop (PL) and he cant bet more than a PL continuation bet. Its also a 2 pot game. If you are going to fire madly at a board that has at least 2 low cards, good luck in continously bluffing a 2 pot game.
There is no 'all ins' as a push around tactic against those who will fold in that scenario and opponents are often priced in to call the max PL bet he can make.
Even when they are not priced in, they call anyway... and as i have vast experience of online hi lo, callers are also going to make their hands far more often than odds dictate too.
All in all, a loose aggressive player at a PL, 2 pot game, who cant put pressure on by pushing all in when they suspect their opponents are weak or still drawing, are going to get caught a helluver lot. He almost never gets it in good against me. Thats not a trait that gives a player a steady uphill graph.... coupled with the fact hi lo is a high variance game, how is this graph possible? The facts of his play, coupled with a high variance game, the graph should be 'swingy'.
Doubleme, you mention conspiracy and a player 'being favoured'...once again, this is not the case.
All sites appear to be doing is enhancing hands. You will get a plethora of nuts to 2nd nuts hands in just a 2 player heads up scenario, which also still changes the lead on the turn or river. Quite amazing hand after hand, no full table, just 2 players having these tremendous hands.
There are 2 players i know in my games, who are just not losing at the rate odds dictate, have steep uphill graphs despite making very basic errors that then just dont lose.
The one thing they have i notice, is a huge amount of games. I have about a 5th/6th of their games on here. I have now identified 3 things in my games where there appears to be a standard result and 2 of them i can use to my favour, which is an interesting development. Im sure other ways will follow when i catch them up in game volume.
I believe these players know the scenarios which despite it looking on the face of it, a terrible move (they could not achieve these graphs playing in this manner with a normal performing deck), they know the situations where the lead will automatically change.
They just have the volume and knowledge of how things work, my amount of games have just told me its an enhanced hand situation and im just beginning to notice a few standard situation results, that i feel i have monitored for long enough now that im confident are a thing.
Certainly on 888, i absolutely identified a standard one result situation, which told me conclusively that poker there simply can not be a random thing. It was not something i could use to my advantage, so i left.
One of the players above, said to me recently that whatever i do, he will win 80% of games against me. When he inexplicably outdraws me yet again, he puts '80%' in the chat box. Because there is needle in the games, i believe he has let his needle get the better of him and exposed his knowledge of the situations where he knows he cant lose ..... and cant resist rubbing my nose in it.
As everyone knows, you cant achieve an 80% win rate by consistently getting your money in that far behind...
Any this particular guy when he finds his 4 out yet again, consistently says if i think his play is that bad, lets play higher.... hmmm, see what he is doing here anyone?
Yer playin for a nicker , it's a **** shoot , it's punting , yer making too much oot of it.
Hey what about this? I agree with every word of what you say! But some have a graph that is as steep as Everest... you make that comment but dont find this odd......
Take a little while to think what you have just said and the graphs these guys have.....
In a nutshell, we have an enhanced hand situation as sites have identified excitement is paramount to the modern day subscriber .... and with all things, some (through sheer volume and experience), have identified of how to use this to their advantage.
Doubleme, you mention conspiracy and a player 'being favoured'...once again, this is not the case.
All sites appear to be doing is enhancing hands. You will get a plethora of nuts to 2nd nuts hands in just a 2 player heads up scenario, which also still changes the lead on the turn or river. Quite amazing hand after hand, no full table, just 2 players having these tremendous hands.
There are 2 players i know in my games, who are just not losing at the rate odds dictate, have steep uphill graphs despite making very basic errors that then just dont lose.
The one thing they have i notice, is a huge amount of games. I have about a 5th/6th of their games on here. I have now identified 3 things in my games where there appears to be a standard result and 2 of them i can use to my favour, which is an interesting development. Im sure other ways will follow when i catch them up in game volume.
I believe these players know the scenarios which despite it looking on the face of it, a terrible move (they could not achieve these graphs playing in this manner with a normal performing deck), they know the situations where the lead will automatically change.
They just have the volume and knowledge of how things work, my amount of games have just told me its an enhanced hand situation and im just beginning to notice a few standard situation results, that i feel i have monitored for long enough now that im confident are a thing.
Certainly on 888, i absolutely identified a standard one result situation, which told me conclusively that poker there simply can not be a random thing. It was not something i could use to my advantage, so i left.
One of the players above, said to me recently that whatever i do, he will win 80% of games against me. When he inexplicably outdraws me yet again, he puts '80%' in the chat box. Because there is needle in the games, i believe he has let his needle get the better of him and exposed his knowledge of the situations where he knows he cant lose ..... and cant resist rubbing my nose in it.
As everyone knows, you cant achieve an 80% win rate by consistently getting your money in that far behind...
Any this particular guy when he finds his 4 out yet again, consistently says if i think his play is that bad, lets play higher.... hmmm, see what he is doing here anyone?
okay so in a nutshell we are not accusing the individual of having any shifty business with the site. so the site has no incentive to rig things for him over you or anyone else. In fact if the guy is not linked to the site if anything they would have an incentive to rig the games against him slightly because his win rates are already to high and sites would prefer everyone loses to the rake and they take all the money if they cold have this sustainably.
Now that may set you off on a rig claim further but yes sites are already working on that not by changing the deck (its always possible they have changed decks but no evidence provided yet so not guilty at the mo) but by changing game structures and reducing rakeback. you have touched on this yourself.
I am not happy about what party have done with merging the ultra and standard speed spins and changing the structure so most games are ultra structure (the faster structure) in fact rather deceptively they have shortened the blind level duration on games which have the bigger stacks unless you hit a very big jackpot spin. the result of this is it makes it very difficult to assess your win rate eg if I win x% of the time I can look at payout structures workout my long term ev taking into account odds of different prizes etc and know that with rakeback bonuses and everything I have an expected profit/loss of y per game.
However with the new structure this all invalid I cant say my win rate at starting stacks of 300 with 1 minute blinds would be the same as my win rate at 500 chips with 1 minute blinds (which is the sneaky thing they did) or if blind levels are longer. in general slower structure should favour the regs as their edge lasts longer but this is not necessary the case because party in the past has been more reg intensive and regs certainly at the small to mid stakes will be more studied in some areas and less studied in others. there will be some regs who I have an edge against in the faster structure spins and they have an edge against me in the slower structure and then there will be some regs where this is reversed. so how do I even work out my long term expected value now? I also noticed they made it not possible to copy and paste the text of the odds of each pay out so I had to go to a tech friend to be able to get the values pasted in excel. In short it is intentional party want to make it unviable for people like me to work out our expected value. That is a really bad sign and has me tempted to withdraw my entire balance from party. Why did I not do this? because with UK gambling regulations round the corner it may become very difficult to get much money at all onto sites without issues emptying a balance does not seem smart right now. this does raise questions though about how much longer making an income however great or small from online poker is viable. they dont need to fix the games like you think they just change the structure of the games and the rakeback and bonuses etc as much as they can get away with until it becomes unviable to make a profit.
I believe I am still profitable on party though now I do not know since the affect on reg numbers will be hard to predict from this and to get a clear picture of my expected value will require a sample so large it would take me about 6 months to a year depending on how much i play to build a sample that means much. By which point the sample is invalid for predicting future expectation because a lot can change in many ways in six months. Great huh?
I mention party because its the most relevant to me but all big three sites stars party and GG have all been doing stuff over the years to reduce the edge of the regs and lower edges. None of what they have done has been illegal or rigging the deck why risk it when they can do it in other ways?
you do actually hint at this yourself and its a point I would be very much on side with you on actually. Just I cant side with the deck is fixed or rigged or etc. Maybe if you focused more on the issue of altering games so much to penalise the regs you would have a lot more people on side.
Though this is not so applicable to skypoker itself as I dont think they have changed the the rake or bonus structure or games much in many years not because they have a different philosophy but simply because the site has not really been upgraded or changed in years.
if you wanted to go down the more sensible route of discussing the changes sites are making a better place to go into detail on this would be other forums more related to the affected sites.
It is a very big concern for online poker in the future though and it may only be a matter of time before changes come to sky poker as well.
Comments
I am sure he imagines the golden buzzer, in reality they would either fail miserably or succeed in which case the show hosts would prolly say something stupid like everyone knows gambling is fixed or the likes.
and dismiss it which would add fuel to the riggies to go off on one and stir the pot or he would fail and it would be funny. Either way it would be fun and good to watch.
Or we cud delete posts (interesting that this is in the mush lesser read 'strategy' column, am i taking strategy??? Or am i talking online poker in general. Best try and hide it up a bit...), talk about BGT and try and deflect it that way.....
This involves playing no poker, with no requirement to understand or play poker, just to watch one 'exciting' hand. You can wager anything up to £55. (talk about problem gambling!) How do you think that came about?
I will tell you. There is only one possible answer to this, if you dont understand business.
There has been discussions, at board level, which has identified that such the demand is for modern subscribers to a poker site, that are here for not playing poker, but for the 'excitement' and 'adrenaline' of a game that involves no skill.
The more exciting that game is, the more they will play. And they will play up to £55 a game for that pleasure. If there is no demand, a site would not even begin to entertain developing the software for it.... and to top this off as proof that sites are looking at 'adrenaline poker', slow stakes poker games are disappearing.
If anyone would also like to have a go at why russian roulette 'all in, one hand' poker has appeared and why normal games are disappearing fast.... other than identifying that 'added excitement' is what the vasy majority of subscribers want now, please feel free to offer an explanantion.
And they dont develop games cos just 20 or so want it that way, believe me. You need to understand how business works and when it evolves, they are giving what they believe the majority of customers want. MattBates has left i believe......
Just lost the first two games of the day to 2 of the biggest 'adrenaline calling junkies' of the site. They are happy, they will certainly be staying and spending. Job done. Me personally though, i feel a bit cheated, as the maths didnt add up.
And there we have the poker players leaving, the non poker players loving life and the evolving games to feed their habit.....
No word as yet!
they either over fold or call down with hands they shouldnt leading to issues on later streets.
If they see your over betting they can call down the small bets light which may in fact be correct given the bet frequencies but then call down very big bets on later streets when it is no longer correct that is one way this could be the case.
Often loose aggressive players who are profitible know how to constantly apply the attack but back away quickly when they recognise the situation is bad the casual player over adapts and gets aggressive in the wrong spot when the lag has it and loses bad.
in short lags can get paid off much more often against casuals then other types of players.
However this is prolly a waste of time explaining this to you because you have a confirmation bias and have continued before when I have explained what is wrong about things you were saying.
I cant comment on the specific player because I dont think I have played with them that much in the past, If I could I would probably not because I think it is wrong to discuss someone elses game on a public forum or in detail with others.
However what exactly is your aspersion here? are you trying to imply that the guy you mention is a house player or sky poker staff member or a sky poker bot?
To be absolutely clear I am not hinting at or making that accusation just trying to ascertain what your conspiracy theory is now? because unless sky have a direct financial interest in a particular screen name they have no reason to rig it in favour of that guy vs anyone else.
Doubleme suggests this player can blow away players into folding via continuation bets and the likes. This player is only playin PL hi lo at £2. Almost no player at this level is folding, as he cant raise enough preflop (PL) and he cant bet more than a PL continuation bet. Its also a 2 pot game. If you are going to fire madly at a board that has at least 2 low cards, good luck in continously bluffing a 2 pot game.
There is no 'all ins' as a push around tactic against those who will fold in that scenario and opponents are often priced in to call the max PL bet he can make.
Even when they are not priced in, they call anyway... and as i have vast experience of online hi lo, callers are also going to make their hands far more often than odds dictate too.
All in all, a loose aggressive player at a PL, 2 pot game, who cant put pressure on by pushing all in when they suspect their opponents are weak or still drawing, are going to get caught a helluver lot. He almost never gets it in good against me. Thats not a trait that gives a player a steady uphill graph.... coupled with the fact hi lo is a high variance game, how is this graph possible? The facts of his play, coupled with a high variance game, the graph should be 'swingy'.
All sites appear to be doing is enhancing hands. You will get a plethora of nuts to 2nd nuts hands in just a 2 player heads up scenario, which also still changes the lead on the turn or river. Quite amazing hand after hand, no full table, just 2 players having these tremendous hands.
There are 2 players i know in my games, who are just not losing at the rate odds dictate, have steep uphill graphs despite making very basic errors that then just dont lose.
The one thing they have i notice, is a huge amount of games. I have about a 5th/6th of their games on here. I have now identified 3 things in my games where there appears to be a standard result and 2 of them i can use to my favour, which is an interesting development. Im sure other ways will follow when i catch them up in game volume.
I believe these players know the scenarios which despite it looking on the face of it, a terrible move (they could not achieve these graphs playing in this manner with a normal performing deck), they know the situations where the lead will automatically change.
They just have the volume and knowledge of how things work, my amount of games have just told me its an enhanced hand situation and im just beginning to notice a few standard situation results, that i feel i have monitored for long enough now that im confident are a thing.
Certainly on 888, i absolutely identified a standard one result situation, which told me conclusively that poker there simply can not be a random thing. It was not something i could use to my advantage, so i left.
One of the players above, said to me recently that whatever i do, he will win 80% of games against me. When he inexplicably outdraws me yet again, he puts '80%' in the chat box. Because there is needle in the games, i believe he has let his needle get the better of him and exposed his knowledge of the situations where he knows he cant lose ..... and cant resist rubbing my nose in it.
As everyone knows, you cant achieve an 80% win rate by consistently getting your money in that far behind...
Any this particular guy when he finds his 4 out yet again, consistently says if i think his play is that bad, lets play higher.... hmmm, see what he is doing here anyone?
Take a little while to think what you have just said and the graphs these guys have.....
Now that may set you off on a rig claim further but yes sites are already working on that not by changing the deck (its always possible they have changed decks but no evidence provided yet so not guilty at the mo) but by changing game structures and reducing rakeback. you have touched on this yourself.
I am not happy about what party have done with merging the ultra and standard speed spins and changing the structure so most games are ultra structure (the faster structure) in fact rather deceptively they have shortened the blind level duration on games which have the bigger stacks unless you hit a very big jackpot spin.
the result of this is it makes it very difficult to assess your win rate eg if I win x% of the time I can look at payout structures workout my long term ev taking into account odds of different prizes etc and know that with rakeback bonuses and everything I have an expected profit/loss of y per game.
However with the new structure this all invalid I cant say my win rate at starting stacks of 300 with 1 minute blinds would be the same as my win rate at 500 chips with 1 minute blinds (which is the sneaky thing they did) or if blind levels are longer. in general slower structure should favour the regs as their edge lasts longer but this is not necessary the case because party in the past has been more reg intensive and regs certainly at the small to mid stakes will be more studied in some areas and less studied in others. there will be some regs who I have an edge against in the faster structure spins and they have an edge against me in the slower structure and then there will be some regs where this is reversed. so how do I even work out my long term expected value now? I also noticed they made it not possible to copy and paste the text of the odds of each pay out so I had to go to a tech friend to be able to get the values pasted in excel.
In short it is intentional party want to make it unviable for people like me to work out our expected value. That is a really bad sign and has me tempted to withdraw my entire balance from party.
Why did I not do this? because with UK gambling regulations round the corner it may become very difficult to get much money at all onto sites without issues emptying a balance does not seem smart right now.
this does raise questions though about how much longer making an income however great or small from online poker is viable.
they dont need to fix the games like you think they just change the structure of the games and the rakeback and bonuses etc as much as they can get away with until it becomes unviable to make a profit.
I believe I am still profitable on party though now I do not know since the affect on reg numbers will be hard to predict from this and to get a clear picture of my expected value will require a sample so large it would take me about 6 months to a year depending on how much i play to build a sample that means much. By which point the sample is invalid for predicting future expectation because a lot can change in many ways in six months. Great huh?
I mention party because its the most relevant to me but all big three sites stars party and GG have all been doing stuff over the years to reduce the edge of the regs and lower edges. None of what they have done has been illegal or rigging the deck why risk it when they can do it in other ways?
you do actually hint at this yourself and its a point I would be very much on side with you on actually. Just I cant side with the deck is fixed or rigged or etc. Maybe if you focused more on the issue of altering games so much to penalise the regs you would have a lot more people on side.
Though this is not so applicable to skypoker itself as I dont think they have changed the the rake or bonus structure or games much in many years not because they have a different philosophy but simply because the site has not really been upgraded or changed in years.
if you wanted to go down the more sensible route of discussing the changes sites are making a better place to go into detail on this would be other forums more related to the affected sites.
It is a very big concern for online poker in the future though and it may only be a matter of time before changes come to sky poker as well.